Nifty CPSE: downtrend since June 2026

Nifty CPSE has been in a downtrend since June 2026 (4 months). Its trend score is 0 out of 100, nearly all signals down. On momentum it is behind most, 89th of 128, and 25th of 41 in themes.

Written for anyone holding or watching Nifty CPSE. Data to 5 Oct 2026.

Today

Of 6 earlier downtrends in CPSE that lasted 4 months or more, 83% went on for at least another three months and 67% for six. Across themes indices (since each launch): 44% and 24% of 144.

Trend: Downtrend since June 2026score 0 of 100; four weeks ago 17
Momentum rank: 89th of 12825th of 41 in themes; 13 weeks ago 20 on 0–100
The 10-month rule: in cash since June 2026month-end price against its 10-month average
The 200-day rule: in cash since July 2026daily close against its 200-session average

Over the last	1 month1M	3 months3M	6 months6M	12 months12M
Signals up	0 of 4	0 of 4	0 of 4	0 of 4
Over cash	−4.1%	−8.8%	−12.9%	−8.0%
Momentum percentile	77	13	1	46

Neighbours on momentum in themes: Commodities, Nifty100 ESG, CPSE, Services Sector, Nifty100 Enhanced ESG.

Trend over time

The trend score each week since 2010, and the regimes it implies: an uptrend from the week it reaches 70 until it falls to 30.

CPSE: trend score, week by week

Share of 24 trend signals pointing up, 0 to 100, weekly to 5 Oct 2026; the 13-week average in bold. Before Mar 2014 the index is NSE's back-calculation.

How to read it. The score moves fast because a third of its signals look back only one or two months. Long stretches near 100 or 0 are the strong trends; the lines at 70 and 30 are where a regime starts.

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Source: NSE total-return index

Method JSON

Uptrends and downtrends

Weekly; blank before the first trend was established.

How to read it. 15 uptrends and 15 downtrends since 2010. Hover for the dates.

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Source: NSE total-return index

Method JSON

Which horizons are rising

Up signals out of four at each horizon, weekly, last three years. Blue: all four up; red: all four down.

How to read it. Trends turn from the top row down: the one-month signals flip first and the twelve-month ones last. Red spreading down the rows is a downtrend taking hold; blue spreading down is a recovery being confirmed.

Momentum over time

Where CPSE has ranked against the other markets in the section, each week. The rank is relative: near 100 it is rising faster than almost everything else, near 0 slower, whatever the market as a whole is doing.

CPSE: momentum rank, week by week

0 to 100 among the markets with a year of history that week (today 128); average of the 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month ranks.

How to read it. Leadership that lasts shows as long spells high on the chart; a line that swings from top to bottom is a market that takes turns.

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Source: NSE total-return index

Method JSON

What the trend rules did here

Each rule holds CPSE while its signal is up and sits in a liquid fund otherwise, deciding at one day's close and trading at the next. Costs: 0.10% of each trade and fund running costs. After tax: Indian capital-gains rules by date, sold at the end, at the 30% slab. From Jan 2010, when all three rules had enough history.

CPSE: growth of 1 under each rule

Weekly, after costs, before tax. Log scale: equal slopes are equal returns.

How to read it. Buying and holding: 10.0% a year, worst fall -54%. The 10-month rule: 14.4%, worst fall -24%. The 200-day rule: 12.1%, worst fall -32%. Look first at the big falls, where the rule lines go flat.

Buy and hold10-month rule200-day ruleAll 24 signals

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Source: NSE total-return index

Method JSON

Each rule against buying and holding over the same dates. After-tax figures for the ensemble are left out: it trades a little every day, which no one would do in a taxable account.
Rule	Period	Rule, a year	Buy and hold	After tax, rule minus buy and hold	Rule's worst fall	Buy and hold's	Time invested	Switches a year
10-month average	Full, from Jan 2010	14.4%	10.0%	+3.6 pts	−24%	−54%	62%	0.8
200-day average	Full, from Jan 2010	12.1%	10.0%	+1.4 pts	−32%	−54%	61%	3.0
All 24 signals (the ensemble)	Full, from Jan 2010	12.2%	10.0%	–	−17%	−54%	53%	4.5
10-month average	Since launch, Mar 2014	19.2%	13.5%	+4.5 pts	−18%	−54%	64%	0.6
200-day average	Since launch, Mar 2014	17.4%	13.5%	+2.6 pts	−21%	−54%	64%	2.6
All 24 signals (the ensemble)	Since launch, Mar 2014	15.5%	13.5%	–	−17%	−54%	57%	4.2

Not a test. These two rules were pre-registered on seven markets, and on those none beat buying and holding by more than luck would explain (the evidence). Run on all 116 investable markets here, the 10-month rule kept more after tax than buying and holding on 32 and the 200-day rule on 27; both had a shallower worst fall on nearly all of them. With this many markets, some would look good by chance, so one market's result says little about the next decade.

Falls from the high

How far CPSE stood below its previous high each week. Its worst fall was 50%, at the bottom in March 2020; today it is 17% below its high.

CPSE: fall from the previous high

Weekly, %, total return.

How to read it. Zero is a new high. The depth of each dip is the fall a holder sat through; its width is how long the recovery took.

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Source: NSE total-return index

Method JSON

Returns, month by month

Every month's total return since Feb 2009, and each year's. Rows are years, newest first.

CPSE, monthly total return, %. Colour saturates at ±10% (the year column too). * part year; the latest month is month to date.
	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Year
2026*	+7.1	+4.7	−2.5	+8.1	−6.0	−4.5	−2.3	−2.2	−1.9	−0.8			−1.4
2025	+1.0	−11.4	+14.1	+2.0	+3.0	+2.9	−3.8	−3.3	+5.5	+2.4	−3.4	+0.1	+7.2
2024	+11.3	+7.9	−0.2	+8.6	+5.3	+3.3	+10.4	−0.8	−1.9	−9.0	−0.8	−6.7	+28.2
2023	+0.5	+2.5	+1.3	+4.7	+1.3	+5.3	+7.8	+0.1	+12.0	−0.7	+9.9	+14.6	+76.4
2022	+10.2	−0.9	+3.6	+5.7	−1.4	−5.5	+2.8	+9.4	−6.1	+9.2	+2.2	−2.2	+28.6
2021	−4.3	+19.8	−3.0	+2.3	+7.9	+4.9	−0.5	−0.1	+17.7	−3.2	−0.6	+1.2	+46.7
2020	−11.9	−9.0	−14.0	+8.1	−1.0	+2.3	−1.8	+6.5	−11.2	−0.7	+15.0	+8.4	−13.1
2019	−4.3	+4.9	+11.6	+0.6	+2.7	+0.9	−14.7	−7.7	+6.4	+4.9	−5.7	−0.4	−3.5
2018	+3.1	−4.1	−6.0	−0.8	+1.1	−8.4	+5.1	+2.5	−4.2	−5.9	−8.3	+6.6	−19.0
2017	+6.9	+4.2	+0.4	+6.7	−5.0	−9.4	+2.8	+3.0	+2.5	+8.9	−3.9	+2.3	+19.4
2016	−6.4	−10.0	+8.2	+2.8	−1.0	+4.8	+7.6	+4.7	+1.6	+8.1	−1.6	−0.6	+17.5
2015	−0.8	+0.2	−3.1	−2.1	+6.5	−0.9	−1.7	−12.6	−3.0	+0.6	+1.2	+1.2	−14.5
2014	−5.7	+4.7	+13.4	−0.1	+22.2	+10.0	−6.5	+2.3	−2.8	+7.7	−2.6	−2.3	+43.1
2013	+7.7	−6.3	−2.0	+6.4	−1.6	−5.1	−10.6	−6.4	+10.5	+4.4	+0.5	+1.6	−3.1
2012	+9.3	+5.3	−2.6	−2.7	−7.7	+10.1	+1.0	−2.4	+5.6	−3.3	+1.4	+1.5	+14.9
2011	−7.8	−4.2	+7.4	+3.7	−4.2	−2.9	+0.7	−6.8	−1.5	+1.3	−4.2	−5.8	−22.6
2010	−4.2	+2.1	+1.8	−0.7	+8.6	+7.5	−3.8	+6.0	+4.4	0.0	−4.7	+0.3	+17.1
2009*		+1.6	+8.9	+8.7	+29.9	−4.0	+12.3	+3.7	+4.5	−4.4	+10.9	+2.3	+97.7

About this market

Nifty CPSE, in themes. Source: NSE total-return index (NSE factsheet). History from Jan 2009.

Back-calculated history. NSE launched this index in March 2014. Its history before that is a back-calculation: today's rules applied to the past. Rules chosen with that past in view tend to look better in it, so treat the pre-launch years, marked on each chart, with care.

Trend asks whether a market is rising; momentum asks whether it is rising faster than the others. Both look back over the same horizons: 1, 3, 6 and 12 months. Every market is measured on its return above a liquid fund (the 91-day T-bill), so an index that only keeps pace with cash is not trending.

The trend score is the share of 24 signals that point up: four ways of asking whether a price is trending (above where it was, above its average, a short average above a long one, in the top half of its range), each at six horizons from one month to a year. 100 means all agree it is rising; 0 that all agree it is falling.

Uptrend and downtrend. Read once a week, a market enters an uptrend when its score reaches 70 (17 of 24 signals up) and stays in it until the score falls to 30 or below, when it enters a downtrend. "Uptrend since March 2026" means the score first reached 70 in March and has not fallen to 30 since. The gap between the two lines keeps a market from flipping every other week.

Describing is not forecasting. In our pre-registered tests no trend or momentum rule on indices beat buying and holding by more than luck would explain, and after tax every rule trailed on the large-cap indices. What the rules did reliably was cut the worst falls. What the tests found. Many indices are back-calculated by NSE before their launch; their pages say so and draw that history lighter.

The workings

Method

How trend, momentum and regimes are measured

Data

Every chart has a table view, a CSV download and a link to its published JSON. Bundles are listed in data status.

Today

Trend over time

Momentum over time

What the trend rules did here

Falls from the high

Returns, month by month

About this market

The workings

Method

Data

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