Economy
Is India growing fast enough, and who is carrying it?
India's GDP grew 7.8% in April to June 2026, faster than its 6.6% a year before the pandemic. Services did 65% of the growing over the last year. In rupees the economy is growing more slowly than usual, because prices are barely rising.
Written for anyone who wants to know whether India's economy is really growing fast, and who is doing the growing. GDP to Q1 FY27 (April to June 2026).
Fast by its own record, with services doing most of the work, though slower in rupees.
India's economy grew 7.8% in April to June 2026 (Q1 FY27) on a year earlier, by MoSPI's first estimate, after 8.6% in the quarter before. Gross value added, the output of every sector before product taxes and subsidies, grew 8.2%. Over the last four quarters it has averaged 8.2%, up from 7.0% in the four before.
Is that fast? Against India's own record, yes. In the eight years before the pandemic, 2012-13 to 2019-20, GDP grew 6.6% a year on the old 2011-12 base; over the last four quarters it grew 8.0%. The two bases measure differently, and where they overlap the new one reads lower (7.3% a year for 2023-24 and 2024-25, against 7.8% on the old), so the change of base does not flatter the recent figures.
Services do most of the work. Of the 8.2% growth in Q1 FY27, services added 5.4 percentage points, industry 2.1 points and agriculture 0.6 points; over the last four quarters services did 65% of the growing. Finance, real estate and professional services alone added 3.2 points, growing 12.1%. On the spending side, household consumption added 4.0 points to GDP growth and investment 4.0 points; investment grew 11.9%, faster than in 89% of quarters since 2012, the lockdown years aside. MoSPI's discrepancy, the gap between output and spending, took 3.2 points off, so the spending side is the less certain half.
In rupees, growth is slower than usual. Nominal GDP grew 10.3% in Q1 FY27 and 9.2% on average over four quarters, against a median of 11.0% since 2012, because prices across the economy rose only 1.0% a year (the GDP deflator). Tax revenue, wages and company sales grow with the rupee figure, so they feel the slower number.
The next GDP estimate, for July to September 2026, is due on 30 November 2026 (MoSPI's release calendar). Our experimental nowcast puts GDP growth between 6.9% and 11.0% (a 70% range), centred on 9.0%; the RBI projected 7.2%. It has not yet beaten simple benchmarks.
Scorecard
Eight readings, each against its own history since 2012-13. Until Q1 FY24 the history is on the old 2011-12 base, joined to the new one as MoSPI's two series allow; the lockdown quarters, from Q1 FY21 to Q1 FY23, are left out because they would stretch every range.
usual range: the middle half of all readings latest Each line runs from the lowest reading to the highest.
This quarter
7.8%GDP growth, Q1 FY27
Output grew 8.2% after 8.7% in Q4 FY26; GDP slowed from 8.6%. The next estimate is due on 30 November 2026; our experimental nowcast centres on 9.0%.
This cycle
7.5%average output growth since Q1 FY24
Thirteen quarters on the new base, from a low of 6.6% in Q4 FY25 to a high of 8.7% in Q4 FY26. The last four averaged 8.2%, the four before 7.0%.
This decade
6.6%a year, 2012-13 to 2019-20
That is the old base's pre-pandemic average. The economy shrank 5.8% in 2020-21. The three years on the new base, 2023-24 to 2025-26, averaged 7.4%.
How fast is India growing?
Each bar is a financial year's growth of real GDP. Years to 2024-25 are on the old 2011-12 base; from 2023-24 the new 2022-23 base runs alongside, and where both exist they differ. Before the pandemic, from 2012-13 to 2019-20, growth averaged 6.6% a year.
Real GDP growth by financial year, on each base
April to March, growth of the year's output after allowing for prices. Both bases are shown where MoSPI publishes both.
How to read it. The two shades are two measurements of the same economy. Where they overlap, compare within a shade, never across.
Loading chart…
Who is carrying it?
Each bar splits a quarter's output growth into what agriculture, industry and services added. In Q1 FY27 services added 5.4 points of the 8.2%. Services are 55% of output, so they do more than that share of the growing only when they grow faster than the rest.
What added to output growth
Percentage points of real GVA growth from each broad sector, quarterly from Q1 FY24, new base. The bars add up to output growth.
How to read it. Industry is mining, manufacturing, utilities and construction. A sector's bar is its own growth times its share of output a year earlier.
Loading chart…
Who is spending?
Consumption, investment and trade
The same economy measured by who buys its output. In Q1 FY27 households added 4.0 points to GDP growth, investment 4.0 points, government consumption 0.5 points and trade, exports less imports, 3.0 points.
What added to GDP growth
Percentage points of real GDP growth from each kind of spending, quarterly from Q1 FY24, new base. The bars add up to GDP growth.
How to read it. The last part is mostly MoSPI's discrepancy, the amount by which spending fails to add up to output. When it is large, read the spending split loosely.
Loading chart…
Growth in rupees
Real growth allows for prices; nominal growth does not. The gap between them is the GDP deflator, the price change across everything the economy makes. Over the last four quarters the deflator rose 1.0% on average, so nominal growth, at 9.2%, ran only a little ahead of real growth.
Nominal and real GDP growth, and the deflator
Growth on a year earlier, quarterly from Q1 FY24, new base.
How to read it. Nominal growth is real growth plus the deflator. When the deflator is low, as now, a fast real figure comes with slow growth in rupees, and so in taxes and sales.
Loading chart…
The next quarter
The nowcast, and how it has done
Our nowcast reads monthly data the statisticians themselves use, from industrial output to air traffic and bank credit, and turns them into an estimate of the quarter MoSPI has not yet published. It is experimental: in its tests it has not yet beaten the simple rule "growth stays where it was". For Q2 FY27 it centres on 9.0% GDP growth, with a 70% range of 6.9% to 11.0%.
GDP growth in Q2 FY27: our nowcasts and the benchmarks
Real GDP growth on a year earlier. The vertical line is Q1 FY27's growth.
How to read it. Dots with lines are our two models and their 70% ranges; plain dots are benchmarks. A range drawn hollow spans last quarter's growth: the model cannot yet say growth has changed.
Loading chart…
First estimates move
MoSPI revises every quarter at later releases. Q4 FY26's output growth was first published at 7.9% and is now 8.7%. The chart sets each quarter's first figure on the new base beside today's.
Output growth: first published and now
Real GVA growth on a year earlier, by quarter. Before Q3 FY26, 'first' is the first figure on the new base (27 February 2026), not the quarter's first estimate.
How to read it. The ring is the first figure, the dot today's. The longer the line, the more MoSPI has changed its mind.
Loading chart…
What the numbers can't tell you
- A new base, with a short history
- MoSPI moved GDP to a 2022-23 base in February 2026. Quarterly figures on it start in 2022-23, so growth rates start a year later. Older figures here are on the 2011-12 base, which measures some sectors differently. More.
- The back series is still to come
- MoSPI's figures for earlier years on the new base are due around December 2026. Until then any long run of growth joins two measurements, and the join is marked on every chart.
- First estimates are revised
- The latest quarter is MoSPI's first estimate, built partly from projections and partial data. Later releases revise it, sometimes by more than a point in a sector. More.
- Spending adds up only roughly
- GDP measured by spending differs from GDP measured by output, and MoSPI shows the gap as a discrepancy. When it is large, the split between consumption, investment and trade is the less certain half.
- Fast enough for what?
- These pages judge growth against India's own record. Whether it is fast enough to create jobs or raise incomes depends on who gains from it, which output figures cannot say. That is a question for jobs and incomes, a dimension of its own.
- The nowcast is an experiment
- Our estimate of the coming quarter has not yet beaten simple benchmarks in testing. It is published with its range, its benchmarks and its record, and scored against MoSPI's first estimate. More.
What changed
Output growth fell from 8.7% in Q4 FY26 to 8.2% in Q1 FY27, both as now published. Q4 FY26 itself was first published at 7.9%; MoSPI has since revised it to 8.7%.
| Measure | Q4 FY26 | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 8.6% | 7.8% | down 0.7 points |
| Gross value added | 8.7% | 8.2% | down 0.5 points |
| Services | 11.5% | 10.0% | down 1.5 points |
| Industry | 7.1% | 7.7% | up 0.6 points |
| Agriculture | 3.9% | 3.6% | down 0.3 points |
| Household consumption | 7.5% | 7.1% | down 0.3 points |
| Investment | 10.5% | 11.9% | up 1.4 points |
| GDP in rupees | 9.2% | 10.3% | up 1.2 points |
| GDP deflator | 0.6% | 2.3% | up 1.8 points |
The workings
The question
Data
Every chart has a table view, a CSV download and a link to its published JSON. Bundles are listed in data status.