Is the world helping or hurting Indian shares?
Commodities and trade: what is India paying the world, and are the shipping lanes open?
India buys most of its oil, its edible oil and much of its fertiliser from the world, in dollars. Over the twelve months to Jun 2026, India exported US$ 463 billion of goods and imported US$ 813 billion, a deficit of US$ 350 billion. Transits through the Strait of Hormuz, the gateway for much of India's crude, were 95% below their 2019 average in the week to 27 Sept 2026.
Written for investors watching India's import bill, inflation and the trade deficit. Data to 27 Sept 2026.
Prices
What India pays for fuel, fertiliser, edible oil and metals in world markets, before the rupee's own move. The ranking shows each price's change over the year to Sept 2026.
Commodity prices, change on a year earlier, Sept 2026
Monthly average price in US dollars, % change on the same month a year earlier. World Bank Pink Sheet.
How to read it. Right of zero, the price has risen over the year. Prices are in dollars; a weaker rupee raises India's cost further.
- Brent crude +72%
- Silver +51%
- Wheat +48%
- Copper +45%
- Soybean oil +39%
- Australian coal +38%
- Dubai crude +38%
- Thai rice +29%
- LNG (Japan) +24%
- Aluminium +24%
- Gold +18%
- Palm oil +14%
- Sunflower oil +6%
- Potash +4%
- DAP fertiliser +3%
- Iron ore −5%
- Urea −12%
Brent crude, US$ a barrel
World Bank Pink Sheet, monthly averages from 2000, in nominal US dollars.
How to read it. Prices are nominal, so long-run rises partly reflect inflation. Choose a commodity to see its own history.
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World Bank commodity price indices
Monthly averages in nominal US dollars, from 2005.
How to read it. Of these three, energy swings the most and food the least.
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Oil
Oil is India's single largest import. Brent is the international benchmark for most of what India buys.
Crude oil
Weekly spot prices, EIA.
How to read it. Brent is the international benchmark; WTI is the US one. The two lines move together, and the gap between them reflects where each grade is produced and shipped.
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India's crude: what it imports and what it pumps
JODI, monthly from 2002. India's figures run about four months behind.
How to read it. The gap between the lines is India's dependence on imported crude: in Mar 2026, imports were 4,497 thousand barrels a day against domestic output of 556.
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Shipping lanes
Disruption to shipping shows first at a few narrow straits and then in port cargo. Cargo through India's own ports, measured from ship tracking, was 16% higher for imports than a year earlier. Freight rates themselves are proprietary indices, so the transits stand in for them.
Ship transits through four chokepoints, against 2019
Seven-day average of daily transits, weekly from 2019, as % above or below the 2019 daily average. IMF PortWatch estimates from ship tracking (AIS).
How to read it. Zero is a normal 2019 day. Bab el-Mandeb and Suez fell after the Red Sea attacks of late 2023; Hormuz collapsed after 28 February 2026, when the major carriers suspended transits. Both are real events, not data faults.
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Cargo through India's ports
37 ports, weekly from 2019. IMF PortWatch estimates from ship tracking, not official port statistics; about a week's lag. Port-call counts are left out: they jumped by about half from April 2026, far more than cargo, and we have not reconciled them.
How to read it. Each point sums the previous 28 days, which smooths out single ships. Compare a point with the same weeks a year earlier; trade has a season.
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India's trade
India's merchandise exports over the twelve months to Jun 2026 were 5.5% higher than in the twelve months before. The partner table shows where the goods go and come from.
India's merchandise trade
Rolling 12-month sums, monthly from the year to March 2007 (IMF import totals for India are incomplete before). Derived from IMF trade statistics; goods only (services, where India runs a surplus, are not included).
How to read it. The gap between the lines is the goods trade deficit. Imports swing with the oil price; exports with world demand.
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| Partner | Share of exports | Change, 1 year |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 19.2% | −2.5% |
| UAE | 7.5% | −5.5% |
| Singapore | 4.5% | 62.9% |
| China | 4.3% | 35.1% |
| Netherlands | 3.4% | −25.9% |
| Bangladesh | 2.6% | 6.6% |
| Germany | 2.5% | 9.2% |
| Saudi Arabia | 2.3% | −5.9% |
| Partner | Share of imports | Change, 1 year |
|---|---|---|
| China | 17.2% | 18.9% |
| Russia | 7.5% | −2.5% |
| UAE | 7.3% | −11.7% |
| United States | 6.8% | 17.6% |
| Saudi Arabia | 4.4% | 22.3% |
| Singapore | 3.2% | 19.3% |
| Switzerland | 3.1% | 23.9% |
| Hong Kong | 3.0% | 15.3% |
Futures positioning
How are hedge funds and commodity managers placed in US futures? The CFTC publishes every trader group's long and short positions each week; we show speculative net positions as a share of open interest, which keeps years comparable as contracts grow. Positions as of 29 Sept 2026. There is no CFTC report for the rupee.
| Contract | Net, % of OI | 3 months ago | 3-year pctile | Full pctile | More |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Treasury 2-year note | −25.7 | −38.9 | 100 | 29 | |
| US Treasury 10-year note | −35.9 | −37.5 | 55 | 8 | |
| E-mini S&P 500 | −19.6 | −18.3 | 22 | 9 | |
| Nasdaq-100 mini | −9.1 | −24.6 | 67 | 32 | |
| US dollar index | 0.7 | −10.3 | 59 | 57 | |
| Gold (COMEX) | 29.6 | 32.5 | 53 | 66 | |
| Silver (COMEX) | 7.1 | 12.6 | 15 | 24 | |
| Copper (COMEX) | 25.9 | 23.5 | 88 | 92 | |
| WTI crude (NYMEX) | 4.2 | 4.2 | 31 | 15 | |
| Henry Hub natural gas (NYMEX) | −7.5 | −4.0 | 10 | 32 |
US Treasury 2-year note: speculative net position
Weekly from June 2006. Long minus short, as % of open interest. CFTC Commitments of Traders, futures only.
How to read it. Above zero, speculators are net long; below, net short. An extreme in either direction means many traders are already on one side. That describes crowding, not timing.
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E-mini S&P 500: two sides of the trade
Net position as % of open interest, weekly from 2006.
How to read it. Asset managers are structural longs, and leveraged funds often take the other side as a hedge. So a leveraged-fund short in equity futures is not necessarily a bet on falling prices.
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What it means for India
Oil, edible oil and fertiliser are the world prices that reach India's inflation and its trade deficit fastest. The chart puts the oil price beside India's goods trade balance.
India's goods trade balance
Exports minus imports, rolling 12-month sum, monthly from the year to March 2007. Derived from IMF trade statistics.
How to read it. Further below zero is a wider deficit. Compare its swings with the oil chart above: oil is the largest single item on India's import bill.
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The workings
Data
Every chart has a table view, a CSV download and a link to its published JSON. Bundles are listed in data status.