Data to 5 October 2026
Sections

Dashboards

DossiersAnswer as of 5 Oct 2026

How risky is the market right now?

Low

The Nifty 500 has moved at an annualised 11.8% over the last month, lower than 76% of weeks since 1995, and is 8.6% below its peak.

Of the six measures that vote, two say calm and four sit in between.

todaya month agoa year ago

The evidence

Each measure against its own history, strongest first. The bar runs from the lowest reading to the highest; the shaded part is the middle half. A measure votes risky at or above the 70th percentile of its history and calm at or below the 30th, unless its note says otherwise. Primary measures count double.

  1. Nifty 500 volatility, last month Primary. 21 sessions, annualised
    11.8% 5 Oct 2026, 24th percentile since 1995 A year ago 8.0%
    calm
  2. Nifty 500 volatility, last three months Supporting. 63 sessions, annualised
    10.4% 5 Oct 2026, 9th percentile since 1995 A year ago 9.3%
    calm
  3. US VIX, percentile of its history Supporting. Shown only as a percentile of its history since 1990, because the level is not ours to publish. 70 or more counts as risky, 30 or less as calm
    34 5 Oct 2026 A year ago 44
    in between
  4. Global financial stress (OFR) Supporting. Above zero is more stress than average
    −2.04 1 Oct 2026, 36th percentile since 2000 A year ago −2.52
    in between
  5. Stocks 20% or more below their high Supporting
    51% 5 Oct 2026, 58th percentile since 2003 A year ago 56%
    in between
  6. Nifty 500 fall from its peak Supporting. Total return against its highest close; a deeper fall counts as risky
    −8.6% 5 Oct 2026, 55th percentile since 1995 A year ago −5.0%
    in between
  7. Fear and greed (the tape) Context. 0 is extreme fear, 100 extreme greed; context, see below
    31 5 Oct 2026, 24th percentile since 2007 A year ago 49
    context

Behind the answer

The Nifty 500 is moving at an annualised 11.8%, in the second fifth of its history

Volatility of daily total returns over the last month, annualised, weekly since 1995. The dashed lines split history into fifths (11.2%, 14.3%, 18.1%, 24.7%). The table under "What history says" shows what followed each fifth.

2000201020200%20%40%60%80%100%calmest fifthmost volatile fifth84%, Apr 202012%2000201020200%20%40%60%80%100%calmest fifthmost volatile fifth84%, Apr 202012%2000200520102015202020250%20%40%60%80%100%calmest fifthmost volatile fifth84%, Apr 202012%

Source: NSE Indices: Nifty 500 total return index (dividends reinvested). US VIX: Cboe via FRED (VIXCLS), published only as a percentile of its own history

Table
DateOne-month volatility
Oct 202612%
Dec 20259%
Feb 202515%
May 202412%
Jul 20239%
Sept 202216%
Dec 202119%
Feb 202121%
May 202042%
Jul 201913%
Sept 201813%
Dec 201710%
Feb 201711%
Apr 201615%
Jul 201513%
Sept 20148%
Nov 201315%
Feb 20139%
Apr 201220%
Jun 201116%
Sept 201010%
Nov 200925%
Jan 200939%
Apr 200845%
Jun 200713%
Aug 200612%
Nov 200521%
Jan 200523%
Mar 200424%
Jun 200311%
Aug 200219%
Oct 200122%
Jan 200130%
Mar 200043%
May 199929%
Aug 199825%
Oct 199714%
Dec 199624%
Mar 199626%
May 199519%

The Nifty 500 is 8.6% below its peak; it has been further down in 55% of weeks since 1995

How far the Nifty 500's total return stands below its highest close so far. Zero is a new high. The troughs are the bear markets; their depth and length are what a holder had to sit through.

200020102020−80%−60%−40%−20%0%20%0%, Aug 1999−67%, Sept 2001−9%200020102020−80%−60%−40%−20%0%20%0%, Aug 1999−67%, Sept 2001−9%200020052010201520202025−80%−60%−40%−20%0%20%0%, Aug 1999−67%, Sept 2001−9%

Source: NSE Indices: Nifty 500 total return index (dividends reinvested). US VIX: Cboe via FRED (VIXCLS), published only as a percentile of its own history

Table
DateFall from peak
Oct 2026−9%
Dec 2025−2%
Feb 2025−19%
May 2024−3%
Jul 2023−1%
Sept 2022−5%
Dec 2021−4%
Feb 2021−2%
May 2020−21%
Jul 2019−5%
Sept 2018−6%
Dec 2017−2%
Feb 20170%
Apr 2016−9%
Jul 2015−4%
Sept 2014−0%
Nov 2013−10%
Feb 2013−8%
Apr 2012−20%
Jun 2011−17%
Sept 2010−13%
Nov 2009−23%
Jan 2009−62%
Apr 2008−32%
Jun 2007−2%
Aug 2006−12%
Nov 2005−9%
Jan 2005−8%
Mar 2004−12%
Jun 2003−47%
Aug 2002−55%
Oct 2001−62%
Jan 2001−43%
Mar 2000−22%
May 1999−20%
Aug 1998−35%
Oct 1997−21%
Dec 1996−38%
Mar 1996−29%
May 1995−24%

51% of liquid stocks are 20% or more below their 52-week high

The share of liquid NSE stocks in their own bear market (20% or more below their 52-week high), whatever the index is doing, weekly since 2003.

201020200%20%40%60%80%100%51%200520102015202020250%20%40%60%80%100%51%200520102015202020250%20%40%60%80%100%51%

Source: NSE bhavcopy via tipsheet pipeline

Table
DateStocks 20% below high
Oct 202651%
Mar 202669%
Aug 202563%
Dec 202454%
May 202431%
Oct 202314%
Mar 202361%
Aug 202256%
Jan 202231%
Jun 20219%
Oct 202053%
Mar 202095%
Aug 201971%
Jan 201974%
Jun 201862%
Nov 201720%
Apr 201717%
Sept 201630%
Jan 201661%
Jun 201548%
Nov 201425%
Apr 201421%
Sept 201361%
Feb 201345%
Jul 201249%
Dec 201171%
Apr 201161%
Sept 201024%
Feb 201031%
Jul 200950%
Dec 200898%
May 200884%
Oct 200723%
Mar 200762%
Jul 200685%
Dec 200526%
May 200524%
Oct 200438%
Mar 200457%

Among 12 major markets, the Nifty 50 is the 3rd furthest below its peak

Each market's main index against its own highest close, in its own currency, today.

−40.0%−30.0%−20.0%−10.0%0.0%Shanghai CompositeShanghai Composite: −36.9%−36.9%Hang SengHang Seng: −27.7%−27.7%Nifty 50Nifty 50: −14.3%−14.3%CAC 40CAC 40: −10.2%−10.2%S&P/ASX 200S&P/ASX 200: −6.3%−6.3%Dow Jones Industrial AverageDow Jones Industrial Average: −5.7%−5.7%DAXDAX: −4.8%−4.8%FTSE 100FTSE 100: −4.4%−4.4%Nikkei 225Nikkei 225: −3.6%−3.6%S&P 500S&P 500: −0.3%−0.3%Nasdaq CompositeNasdaq Composite: 0.0%0.0%Nasdaq-100Nasdaq-100: 0.0%0.0%−40.0%−30.0%−20.0%−10.0%0.0%Shanghai CompositeShanghai Composite: −36.9%−36.9%Hang SengHang Seng: −27.7%−27.7%Nifty 50Nifty 50: −14.3%−14.3%CAC 40CAC 40: −10.2%−10.2%S&P/ASX 200S&P/ASX 200: −6.3%−6.3%Dow Jones Industrial AverageDow Jones Industrial Average: −5.7%−5.7%DAXDAX: −4.8%−4.8%FTSE 100FTSE 100: −4.4%−4.4%Nikkei 225Nikkei 225: −3.6%−3.6%S&P 500S&P 500: −0.3%−0.3%Nasdaq CompositeNasdaq Composite: 0.0%0.0%Nasdaq-100Nasdaq-100: 0.0%0.0%−40.0%−30.0%−20.0%−10.0%0.0%Shanghai CompositeShanghai Composite: −36.9%−36.9%Hang SengHang Seng: −27.7%−27.7%Nifty 50Nifty 50: −14.3%−14.3%CAC 40CAC 40: −10.2%−10.2%S&P/ASX 200S&P/ASX 200: −6.3%−6.3%Dow Jones Industrial AverageDow Jones Industrial Average: −5.7%−5.7%DAXDAX: −4.8%−4.8%FTSE 100FTSE 100: −4.4%−4.4%Nikkei 225Nikkei 225: −3.6%−3.6%S&P 500S&P 500: −0.3%−0.3%Nasdaq CompositeNasdaq Composite: 0.0%0.0%Nasdaq-100Nasdaq-100: 0.0%0.0%

Source: Overseas indices: Kite Connect GLOBAL daily candles (internal, personal-use licence), replaced by official series where public ones exist (S&P 500: FRED SP500 from 2016-05-31; Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq-100: Nasdaq Global Index Watch). Nifty 50: niftyindices price index. FX: ECB euro reference rates

Table
Below peak
Shanghai Composite−36.9%
Hang Seng−27.7%
Nifty 50−14.3%
CAC 40−10.2%
S&P/ASX 200−6.3%
Dow Jones Industrial Average−5.7%
DAX−4.8%
FTSE 100−4.4%
Nikkei 225−3.6%
S&P 500−0.3%
Nasdaq Composite0.0%
Nasdaq-1000.0%

Global financial stress is below average (−2.04)

The US Office of Financial Research's financial stress index, built from credit, equity valuation, funding, safe-asset and volatility measures across markets. Zero is average stress; above zero, more than average. The highest and lowest readings are labelled.

20102020−1001020304029, Oct 2008−5, Feb 2007−220052010201520202025−1001020304029, Oct 2008−5, Feb 2007−220052010201520202025−1001020304029, Oct 2008−5, Feb 2007−2

Source: Office of Financial Research, OFR Financial Stress Index (financialresearch.gov). Public domain

Table
DateOFR financial stress
Oct 2026−2
Jan 2026−2
May 2025−1
Sept 2024−1
Jan 2024−2
May 20230
Sept 20222
Jan 2022−2
May 2021−4
Sept 2020−2
Jan 2020−4
May 2019−2
Sept 2018−3
Jan 2018−4
May 2017−3
Sept 2016−1
Jan 20161
May 2015−2
Sept 2014−3
Jan 2014−3
May 2013−3
Aug 2012−0
Dec 20114
Apr 2011−1
Aug 20102
Dec 20091
Apr 20099
Aug 20087
Dec 20074
Apr 2007−5
Aug 2006−4
Dec 2005−4
Apr 2005−3
Aug 2004−2
Dec 2003−0
Apr 20032
Aug 20026
Dec 20014
Apr 20016
Aug 20003

What has changed

What history says

Chance of a 10% fall within three months, by today's volatility

Share of sessions in each fifth of volatility that were followed by a fall of 10% or more within 63 sessions. Today's fifth in colour. Under each column, the number of independent three-month periods.

lowest: 12%12%lowest40 periodssecond: 17%17%second24 periodsmiddle: 27%27%middle19 periodsfourth: 27%27%fourth15 periodshighest: 42%42%highest16 periodslowest: 12%12%lowest40 periodssecond: 17%17%second24 periodsmiddle: 27%27%middle19 periodsfourth: 27%27%fourth15 periodshighest: 42%42%highest16 periodslowest: 12%12%lowest40 periodssecond: 17%17%second24 periodsmiddle: 27%27%middle19 periodsfourth: 27%27%fourth15 periodshighest: 42%42%highest16 periods

Source: NSE Indices: Nifty 500 total return index (dividends reinvested). US VIX: Cboe via FRED (VIXCLS), published only as a percentile of its own history

Table
Value
lowest12%40 periods
second17%24 periods
middle27%19 periods
fourth27%15 periods
highest42%16 periods

Volatility over the next month, by today's volatility

Median volatility of the next 21 sessions for each fifth of today's volatility: from 11.9% after the calmest fifth to 28.9% after the most volatile. Today's fifth in colour.

lowest: 12%12%lowestsecond: 15%15%secondmiddle: 17%17%middlefourth: 21%21%fourthhighest: 29%29%highestlowest: 12%12%lowestsecond: 15%15%secondmiddle: 17%17%middlefourth: 21%21%fourthhighest: 29%29%highestlowest: 12%12%lowestsecond: 15%15%secondmiddle: 17%17%middlefourth: 21%21%fourthhighest: 29%29%highest

Source: NSE Indices: Nifty 500 total return index (dividends reinvested). US VIX: Cboe via FRED (VIXCLS), published only as a percentile of its own history

Table
Value
lowest12%
second15%
middle17%
fourth21%
highest29%

Volatility comes in spells

Descriptive, not a test

Today's volatility is in the second fifth of its history. After sessions in that fifth, the median volatility over the next month was 15.0%, and the market fell 10% or more within three months 17% of the time, over about 23.6 independent three-month periods. After the calmest fifth the same two figures were 11.9% and 12%. After the most volatile fifth they were 28.9% and 42%, and across all sessions 15.6% and 22%. Each day's fifths are set from the history known on that day. This describes one market, and we registered no test on it.

How the table is computed

Fear and greed as a risk gauge

Failed its pre-registered test

Our fear and greed index failed all three pre-registered tests of forecasting risk: it added nothing to trailing volatility, the US VIX and the 200-day rule for next month's volatility or the odds of a 5% or 10% fall. Extreme fear (its bottom tenth) has been followed by better three-month returns than usual, 8.1% against 3.5%, over 14 episodes and in both halves of the sample. Extreme greed has not been followed by worse returns.

Fear and greed, with its tests

What would change the answer

One measure moving a step would make the answer “Normal”: Nifty 500 volatility, last month.

It would take two measures moving a step each to make the answer “Very low”.

Nifty 500 volatility, last month
11.8% now. It stops counting as calm above 12.8% (8% higher).

The readings and the dashboards

Stocks 20% or more below their high 51%usual
US financial conditions (NFCI) −0.55usual
Nifty 50 and 11 world markets, median correlation 0.39

the usual range: the middle half of all readingstodayEach line runs from the lowest reading ever to the highest.

How these answers are made: the dossier method. Historical research, not investment advice.