Data to 5 October 2026

The questions, answered

Twelve questions a reader brings to the market, each answered from the data every day. Each answer links to its dossier: the evidence ranked, what changed, what our own tests say and what would change the answer.

Answers as of 5 Oct 2026. How the answers are made.

  1. Is the market expensive?Somewhat expensive

    The Nifty 50 costs 19.3 times its last year's earnings, higher than 61% of readings since 1999.

  2. Is the market in an uptrend?Downtrend

    4 of every 100 trend rules we track vote up for the Nifty 500, which has returned −5.4% over three months and −3.7% over a year.

  3. Are most stocks taking part?Fewer stocks strong than usual

    The Nifty 500 has returned −5.4% over three months, and 50% of liquid stocks are above their 200-day average: the weakness is broad, not confined to a few large stocks.

  4. What is leading?Micro caps; MidSmall Healthcare, Pharma and Media

    Micro caps have led the Nifty 500 by 25.1 percentage points over six months, and are still ahead over the last month.

  5. How risky is the market right now?Low

    The Nifty 500 has moved at an annualised 11.8% over the last month, lower than 76% of weeks since 1995, and is 8.6% below its peak.

  6. How much speculation is there?Above usual

    Borrowed money to hold shares is 32 bps of market value, the highest reading since 2017; option premium is 0.45× the value of shares traded, higher than 61% of months since 2015.

  7. Who is buying?Mutual funds buying, companies and others selling

    Over the three months to Sept 2026, mutual funds bought a net ₹1.3 lakh cr of Indian shares on the exchanges and companies and others sold a net ₹90,058 cr.

  8. Is money cheap?Cheap

    After inflation the repo rate is 0.43%, lower than 60% of months since 2001, and the overnight call rate is 16 bps below it. At its last meeting, on 5 August 2026, the MPC left the repo rate at 5.25%.

  9. How is the economy doing?Strong

    The economy grew 7.8% in real terms in the latest quarter, higher than 76% of quarters since 2012, and consumer inflation is 4.8% against the RBI's 4% target.

  10. What is the rupee doing?Weakening

    At 96.31 to the dollar, the rupee has weakened 1.0% over three months and 8.5% over a year, while the dollar itself has risen 1.1% against all its trading partners.

  11. Is the world helping or hurting Indian shares?Headwinds

    The US 10-year real yield is 2.92%, the highest reading since 2003, and the dollar has risen 0.6% against its trading partners in six months.

  12. Are the products doing what they promise?5 of 6 promises hold

    Not holding: international ETFs, whose median premium to NAV is 15.70% against a bar of within ±0.50%.