Data to 5 October 2026
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DossiersAnswer as of 5 Oct 2026

Is the market in an uptrend?

Downtrend

4 of every 100 trend rules we track vote up for the Nifty 500, which has returned −5.4% over three months and −3.7% over a year.

Of the seven measures that vote, one says up, four say down and two sit in between.

They disagree: the 10-month rule, Nifty Smallcap 250 is above its average, while the trend ensemble score, Nifty 500 is 4.

todaya month agoa year ago

The evidence

Each measure against its own history, strongest first. The bar runs from the lowest reading to the highest; the shaded part is the middle half. A measure votes up at or above the 70th percentile of its history and down at or below the 30th, unless its note says otherwise. Primary measures count double.

  1. Trend ensemble score, Nifty 500 Primary. Share of 24 trend rules voting up, 0–100; 60 or more counts as up, 40 or less as down
    4 5 Oct 2026 A year ago 58
    down
  2. 10-month rule, Nifty 500 Primary. Month-end above the average of the last 10 month-ends counts as up
    below its average Sept 2026 A year ago above its average
    down
  3. 10-month rule, Nifty Midcap 150 Supporting
    below its average Sept 2026 A year ago above its average
    down
  4. 10-month rule, Nifty 50 Supporting
    below its average Sept 2026 A year ago above its average
    down
  5. 10-month rule, Nifty Smallcap 250 Supporting
    above its average Sept 2026 A year ago above its average
    up
  6. Nifty 500 distance from its 52-week high Supporting. Within 5% counts as up, 15% or more below as down
    8.1% below 5 Oct 2026 A year ago 4.2% below
    in between
  7. Stocks above their 200-day average Supporting. 60% or more counts as up, 40% or less as down
    50% 5 Oct 2026 A year ago 54%
    in between

Broad market, sectors, themes and strategies

The answer above weighs the broad market. Follow each family below for its own trend rankings, momentum, regime history and path-quality comparisons.

Trend readings as of 5 Oct 2026. Counts cover each complete tracked family; quality tables lead with representative indices and retain the alternatives. Overlapping indices are not independent votes or diversification exposures.
Family and quality viewIndices trackedIn uptrendsIn downtrendsNo established trendMore
Broad market185130
Sectors238150
Themes414370
Strategies and factors323290

Explore the full trend and momentum section

Behind the answer

The Nifty 500 is 3.2% below its 10-month average

The Nifty 500's total return over three years, set to 100 at the start (log scale), and the average of its last ten month-ends, which the pre-registered 10-month rule uses: in when a month ends above the average, out when it ends below. Shaded months are those the rule was in. The rule is checked only at month-ends, so the price can cross the line in between without switching it.

Nifty 50010-month average

20242025202610012014013513120242025202610012014010-month average 135Nifty 500 13120242025202610012014010-month average 135Nifty 500 131

Source: NSE Indices total return series (dividends reinvested), rebased.

Table
DateNifty 50010-month average
Oct 2026131135
Sept 2026138–
Aug 2026141–
Jul 2026138–
Jun 2026136–
May 2026133–
Apr 2026136–
Mar 2026125–
Feb 2026138–
Jan 2026134–
Dec 2025140–
Nov 2025141133
Oct 2025140131
Oct 2025136–
Sept 2025135–
Aug 2025134–
Jul 2025137–
Jun 2025136–
May 2025132–
Apr 2025129–
Mar 2025123–
Feb 2025121–
Jan 2025125–
Dec 2024131–
Dec 2024133–
Nov 2024133–
Oct 2024135–
Sept 2024137–
Aug 2024134–
Jul 2024135–
Jun 2024130–
May 2024123–
Apr 2024120–
Mar 2024115–
Feb 2024118–
Jan 2024114–
Jan 2024113–
Dec 2023107–
Nov 202399–
Oct 202399–

1 of 24 trend rules vote up: 0 of 12 at horizons up to three months, 1 of 12 at six to twelve months

Each square is one rule's vote for the Nifty 500 today: four kinds of trend signal at six horizons. Coloured squares vote up, grey ones down. The ensemble's score is the share voting up.

1m1 month2m2 months3m3 months6m6 months9m9 months12m12 monthsPast returnPast return, 1 month: downPast return, 2 months: downPast return, 3 months: downPast return, 6 months: upPast return, 9 months: downPast return, 12 months: downPrice against its averagePrice against its average, 1 month: downPrice against its average, 2 months: downPrice against its average, 3 months: downPrice against its average, 6 months: downPrice against its average, 9 months: downPrice against its average, 12 months: downAverage crossoverAverage crossover, 1 month: downAverage crossover, 2 months: downAverage crossover, 3 months: downAverage crossover, 6 months: downAverage crossover, 9 months: downAverage crossover, 12 months: downPosition in its rangePosition in its range, 1 month: downPosition in its range, 2 months: downPosition in its range, 3 months: downPosition in its range, 6 months: downPosition in its range, 9 months: downPosition in its range, 12 months: down1m1 month2m2 months3m3 months6m6 months9m9 months12m12 monthsPast returnPast return, 1 month: downPast return, 2 months: downPast return, 3 months: downPast return, 6 months: upPast return, 9 months: downPast return, 12 months: downPrice against its averagePrice against its average, 1 month: downPrice against its average, 2 months: downPrice against its average, 3 months: downPrice against its average, 6 months: downPrice against its average, 9 months: downPrice against its average, 12 months: downAverage crossoverAverage crossover, 1 month: downAverage crossover, 2 months: downAverage crossover, 3 months: downAverage crossover, 6 months: downAverage crossover, 9 months: downAverage crossover, 12 months: downPosition in its rangePosition in its range, 1 month: downPosition in its range, 2 months: downPosition in its range, 3 months: downPosition in its range, 6 months: downPosition in its range, 9 months: downPosition in its range, 12 months: down1m1 month2m2 months3m3 months6m6 months9m9 months12m12 monthsPast returnPast return, 1 month: downPast return, 2 months: downPast return, 3 months: downPast return, 6 months: upPast return, 9 months: downPast return, 12 months: downPrice against its averagePrice against its average, 1 month: downPrice against its average, 2 months: downPrice against its average, 3 months: downPrice against its average, 6 months: downPrice against its average, 9 months: downPrice against its average, 12 months: downAverage crossoverAverage crossover, 1 month: downAverage crossover, 2 months: downAverage crossover, 3 months: downAverage crossover, 6 months: downAverage crossover, 9 months: downAverage crossover, 12 months: downPosition in its rangePosition in its range, 1 month: downPosition in its range, 2 months: downPosition in its range, 3 months: downPosition in its range, 6 months: downPosition in its range, 9 months: downPosition in its range, 12 months: down

Source: NSE total-return indices; gold in rupees (WGC); NSE 5-year G-sec index; 91-day T-bill (RBI); rupee per dollar from ECB reference rates

Table
1 month2 months3 months6 months9 months12 months
Past returndowndowndownupdowndown
Price against its averagedowndowndowndowndowndown
Average crossoverdowndowndowndowndowndown
Position in its rangedowndowndowndowndowndown

1 of 30 assets and sectors are in uptrends: Nifty Media; 23 are in downtrends

The same 24-rule ensemble on the broad indices, every sector index, gold, 5-year G-secs and the rupee (for the rupee, up means more rupees per dollar). Bars are today's score; the black tick is a month ago. 60 or more counts as up, 40 or less as down.

up (60+)betweendown (40 or less)a month ago

050100Nifty MediaNifty Media: 71; a month ago 7971Nifty PharmaNifty Pharma: 58; a month ago 8858Nifty500 HealthcareNifty500 Healthcare: 50; a month ago 7950Nifty MidSmall HealthcareNifty MidSmall Healthcare: 50; a month ago 7950Nifty HealthcareNifty Healthcare: 46; a month ago 7946Nifty Smallcap 250Nifty Smallcap 250: 42; a month ago 9642Nifty MidSmall IT & TelecomNifty MidSmall IT & Telecom: 42; a month ago 9242Nifty MetalNifty Metal: 38; a month ago 9638GoldGold: 33; a month ago 7133Nifty RealtyNifty Realty: 33; a month ago 7933Nifty REITs & RealtyNifty REITs & Realty: 33; a month ago 7933Nifty MidSmall Financial ServicesNifty MidSmall Financial Services: 29; a month ago 9629Nifty Midcap 150Nifty Midcap 150: 17; a month ago 7117Nifty AutoNifty Auto: 17; a month ago 5817Nifty Consumer DurablesNifty Consumer Durables: 17; a month ago 7117G-sec 5-yearG-sec 5-year: 13; a month ago 5013Nifty ChemicalsNifty Chemicals: 13; a month ago 6313Nifty Financial Services Ex-BankNifty Financial Services Ex-Bank: 13; a month ago 6713Nifty 500Nifty 500: 4; a month ago 424Nifty BankNifty Bank: 4; a month ago 384Nifty Financial ServicesNifty Financial Services: 4; a month ago 134Nifty ITNifty IT: 4; a month ago 504Nifty Private BankNifty Private Bank: 4; a month ago 674Nifty PSU BankNifty PSU Bank: 4; a month ago 294Nifty 50Nifty 50: 0; a month ago 80Rupee (vs US dollar)Rupee (vs US dollar): 0; a month ago 540Nifty CementNifty Cement: 0; a month ago 80Nifty Financial Services 25/50Nifty Financial Services 25/50: 0; a month ago 130Nifty FMCGNifty FMCG: 0; a month ago 00Nifty Oil & GasNifty Oil & Gas: 0; a month ago 130020406080100Nifty MediaNifty Media: 71; a month ago 7971Nifty PharmaNifty Pharma: 58; a month ago 8858Nifty500 HealthcareNifty500 Healthcare: 50; a month ago 7950Nifty MidSmall HealthcareNifty MidSmall Healthcare: 50; a month ago 7950Nifty HealthcareNifty Healthcare: 46; a month ago 7946Nifty Smallcap 250Nifty Smallcap 250: 42; a month ago 9642Nifty MidSmall IT & TelecomNifty MidSmall IT & Telecom: 42; a month ago 9242Nifty MetalNifty Metal: 38; a month ago 9638GoldGold: 33; a month ago 7133Nifty RealtyNifty Realty: 33; a month ago 7933Nifty REITs & RealtyNifty REITs & Realty: 33; a month ago 7933Nifty MidSmall Financial ServicesNifty MidSmall Financial Services: 29; a month ago 9629Nifty Midcap 150Nifty Midcap 150: 17; a month ago 7117Nifty AutoNifty Auto: 17; a month ago 5817Nifty Consumer DurablesNifty Consumer Durables: 17; a month ago 7117G-sec 5-yearG-sec 5-year: 13; a month ago 5013Nifty ChemicalsNifty Chemicals: 13; a month ago 6313Nifty Financial Services Ex-BankNifty Financial Services Ex-Bank: 13; a month ago 6713Nifty 500Nifty 500: 4; a month ago 424Nifty BankNifty Bank: 4; a month ago 384Nifty Financial ServicesNifty Financial Services: 4; a month ago 134Nifty ITNifty IT: 4; a month ago 504Nifty Private BankNifty Private Bank: 4; a month ago 674Nifty PSU BankNifty PSU Bank: 4; a month ago 294Nifty 50Nifty 50: 0; a month ago 80Rupee (vs US dollar)Rupee (vs US dollar): 0; a month ago 540Nifty CementNifty Cement: 0; a month ago 80Nifty Financial Services 25/50Nifty Financial Services 25/50: 0; a month ago 130Nifty FMCGNifty FMCG: 0; a month ago 00Nifty Oil & GasNifty Oil & Gas: 0; a month ago 130020406080100Nifty MediaNifty Media: 71; a month ago 7971Nifty PharmaNifty Pharma: 58; a month ago 8858Nifty500 HealthcareNifty500 Healthcare: 50; a month ago 7950Nifty MidSmall HealthcareNifty MidSmall Healthcare: 50; a month ago 7950Nifty HealthcareNifty Healthcare: 46; a month ago 7946Nifty Smallcap 250Nifty Smallcap 250: 42; a month ago 9642Nifty MidSmall IT & TelecomNifty MidSmall IT & Telecom: 42; a month ago 9242Nifty MetalNifty Metal: 38; a month ago 9638GoldGold: 33; a month ago 7133Nifty RealtyNifty Realty: 33; a month ago 7933Nifty REITs & RealtyNifty REITs & Realty: 33; a month ago 7933Nifty MidSmall Financial ServicesNifty MidSmall Financial Services: 29; a month ago 9629Nifty Midcap 150Nifty Midcap 150: 17; a month ago 7117Nifty AutoNifty Auto: 17; a month ago 5817Nifty Consumer DurablesNifty Consumer Durables: 17; a month ago 7117G-sec 5-yearG-sec 5-year: 13; a month ago 5013Nifty ChemicalsNifty Chemicals: 13; a month ago 6313Nifty Financial Services Ex-BankNifty Financial Services Ex-Bank: 13; a month ago 6713Nifty 500Nifty 500: 4; a month ago 424Nifty BankNifty Bank: 4; a month ago 384Nifty Financial ServicesNifty Financial Services: 4; a month ago 134Nifty ITNifty IT: 4; a month ago 504Nifty Private BankNifty Private Bank: 4; a month ago 674Nifty PSU BankNifty PSU Bank: 4; a month ago 294Nifty 50Nifty 50: 0; a month ago 80Rupee (vs US dollar)Rupee (vs US dollar): 0; a month ago 540Nifty CementNifty Cement: 0; a month ago 80Nifty Financial Services 25/50Nifty Financial Services 25/50: 0; a month ago 130Nifty FMCGNifty FMCG: 0; a month ago 00Nifty Oil & GasNifty Oil & Gas: 0; a month ago 130

Source: The trend barometer (NSE Indices total returns; gold in rupees; ECB reference rates).

Table
Score todaya month ago
Nifty Media7179
Nifty Pharma5888
Nifty500 Healthcare5079
Nifty MidSmall Healthcare5079
Nifty Healthcare4679
Nifty Smallcap 2504296
Nifty MidSmall IT & Telecom4292
Nifty Metal3896
Gold3371
Nifty Realty3379
Nifty REITs & Realty3379
Nifty MidSmall Financial Services2996
Nifty Midcap 1501771
Nifty Auto1758
Nifty Consumer Durables1771
G-sec 5-year1350
Nifty Chemicals1363
Nifty Financial Services Ex-Bank1367
Nifty 500442
Nifty Bank438
Nifty Financial Services413
Nifty IT450
Nifty Private Bank467
Nifty PSU Bank429
Nifty 5008
Rupee (vs US dollar)054
Nifty Cement08
Nifty Financial Services 25/50013
Nifty FMCG00
Nifty Oil & Gas013

27% of NSE's indices have the 10-month rule in, among the lowest shares since 2005

At each month-end, the share of NSE's indices (broad, sector, strategy and thematic, about 114 today) whose month-end is above their 10-month average. A broad uptrend has most indices in; a narrow one has a few. A year ago the share was 82%. The latest month is month to date.

201020200%20%40%60%80%100%half27%20102015202020250%20%40%60%80%100%half27%20102015202020250%20%40%60%80%100%half27%

Source: NSE Indices total return series (dividends reinvested)

Table
DateIndices with the rule in
Oct 202627%
Mar 20264%
Aug 202578%
Jan 202510%
Jun 202499%
Nov 2023100%
Apr 202374%
Sept 202278%
Feb 202245%
Jul 2021100%
Dec 2020100%
May 20204%
Oct 201974%
Mar 201981%
Aug 201877%
Jan 201899%
Jun 201794%
Nov 201681%
Apr 201672%
Sept 201537%
Feb 201594%
Jul 2014100%
Dec 201397%
May 201371%
Oct 201293%
Mar 201288%
Aug 20117%
Jan 201123%
Jun 201094%
Nov 2009100%
Apr 200961%
Sept 20080%
Feb 200874%
Jul 200796%
Dec 200698%
May 200689%
Oct 200593%
Mar 2005100%

What has changed

What history says

Median Nifty 500 return over the next three months, by trend score

Since 1996, sessions grouped by the ensemble score, today's band (0–20) in colour. Under each column, the number of independent three-month periods behind it. Read the differences between bands against the number of periods under each.

0–20: +4.3%+4.3%0–2052 periods20–40: +3.5%+3.5%20–4064 periods40–60: +2.1%+2.1%40–6075 periods60–80: +3.8%+3.8%60–8076 periods80–100: +4.9%+4.9%80–10076 periodsAll sessions: +4.1%+4.1%All sessions120 periods0–20: +4.3%+4.3%0–2052 periods20–40: +3.5%+3.5%20–4064 periods40–60: +2.1%+2.1%40–6075 periods60–80: +3.8%+3.8%60–8076 periods80–100: +4.9%+4.9%80–10076 periodsAll sessions: +4.1%+4.1%All sessions120 periods0–20: +4.3%+4.3%0–2052 periods20–40: +3.5%+3.5%20–4064 periods40–60: +2.1%+2.1%40–6075 periods60–80: +3.8%+3.8%60–8076 periods80–100: +4.9%+4.9%80–10076 periodsAll sessions: +4.1%+4.1%All sessions120 periods

Source: The trend barometer's 'what happened next' table.

Table
Value
0–20+4.3%52 periods
20–40+3.5%64 periods
40–60+2.1%75 periods
60–80+3.8%76 periods
80–100+4.9%76 periods
All sessions+4.1%120 periods

Median Nifty 500 return over the next year, by trend score

Since 1996, sessions grouped by the ensemble score, today's band (0–20) in colour. Under each column, the number of independent one-year periods behind it. Read the differences between bands against the number of periods under each.

0–20: +14.1%+14.1%0–2020 periods20–40: +9.7%+9.7%20–4023 periods40–60: +7.8%+7.8%40–6026 periods60–80: +11.6%+11.6%60–8025 periods80–100: +13.9%+13.9%80–10025 periodsAll sessions: +12.1%+12.1%All sessions30 periods0–20: +14.1%+14.1%0–2020 periods20–40: +9.7%+9.7%20–4023 periods40–60: +7.8%+7.8%40–6026 periods60–80: +11.6%+11.6%60–8025 periods80–100: +13.9%+13.9%80–10025 periodsAll sessions: +12.1%+12.1%All sessions30 periods0–20: +14.1%+14.1%0–2020 periods20–40: +9.7%+9.7%20–4023 periods40–60: +7.8%+7.8%40–6026 periods60–80: +11.6%+11.6%60–8025 periods80–100: +13.9%+13.9%80–10025 periodsAll sessions: +12.1%+12.1%All sessions30 periods

Source: The trend barometer's 'what happened next' table.

Table
Value
0–20+14.1%20 periods
20–40+9.7%23 periods
40–60+7.8%26 periods
60–80+11.6%25 periods
80–100+13.9%25 periods
All sessions+12.1%30 periods

After a score of 0–20

Descriptive, not a test

Since 1996, when the ensemble score was in today's band (0–20), the Nifty 500's median return over the next three months was +4.3% (positive 64% of the time, about 52 independent periods) and over the next year +14.1% (about 20 independent periods). Across all bands the one-year medians ran from +7.8% to +14.1%. With this few independent periods the differences between bands are not a forecast.

The trend ensemble, tested

Following the trend against holding

Failed its pre-registered test

Investing in the Nifty 500 only when the ensemble said up returned 13.8% a year from 1996, against 13.9% for holding throughout, before tax. Its worst fall was −33% against −67%. After allowing for the 84 variants tried, the edge over holding is not significant (deflated Sharpe 0.02; 0.95 is the bar). The ensemble did pass its robustness test: it was the least regrettable choice among the single rules.

The trend ensemble's pre-registered tests

Trend says little about risk

Failed its pre-registered test

The score did not improve forecasts of a 10% fall or of next month's volatility beyond trailing volatility, the US VIX and the 200-day rule (p = 0.77 for a 10% fall).

TR-H4

The 10-month rule on its own

Failed its pre-registered test

From 1995 the 10-month rule on the Nifty 500 returned 11.6% a year against 13.2% for holding, with a worst fall of −45% against −67%; after counting trials, the edge is not significant (deflated Sharpe 0.01).

Trend rules, pre-registered

What would change the answer

It would take two measures moving a step each to make the answer “No clear trend”.

One measure moving a step would make the answer “Strong downtrend”: 10-month rule, Nifty Smallcap 250.

The Nifty 500 is 2.8% below its 10-month average. The rule is checked at each month-end, so a month-end above that average would switch it.

Trend ensemble score, Nifty 500
4 now. It stops counting as down above 40.

The readings and the dashboards

Stocks above their 200-day average 50%usual
Stocks above their 50-day average 30%below usual
Net new 52-week highs −22below usual

the usual range: the middle half of all readingstodayEach line runs from the lowest reading ever to the highest.

How these answers are made: the dossier method. Historical research, not investment advice.