Data to 5 October 2026
Sections

Dashboards

Research

What trend and momentum have been worth

Trend rules on Indian indices have cut the worst falls, but none has beaten buying and holding by more than luck would explain, and after tax they trailed on every large-cap index. Rotating into the strongest sectors has not paid either. The one result that holds up is stock momentum: last year's winning stocks have kept beating last year's losers. Everything here was written down before the results were seen.

Written for investors tempted by timing rules, and anyone who wants to see a null result stated plainly. Data to 5 Oct 2026.

The record

Each question, what we found, and the number that decided it. The sections below show the workings.

QuestionResultThe deciding number
Do single trend rules beat buying and holding, once every rule tried is counted?FailedBest deflated Sharpe ratio 0.14 across 35 rule-market pairs; 0.95 needed
After tax, do they keep up on large caps?NoBehind by 1.1–5.2 points a year on every large-cap index
Is an ensemble of 24 signals a safer choice than picking one?PassedWorst five-year rank: 28th percentile against 6th for a typical single rule
Does the ensemble beat buying and holding?FailedDeflated Sharpe 0.02 with 84 trials
Does the trend score help forecast a fall or volatility?FailedNo improvement out of sample
Does holding the top three sectors by past return beat holding all sectors?Failed12-1: deflated Sharpe 0.33; 6-1: 0.66; blended (MO-H5): 0.57
Has stock momentum paid in India?PassedTop fifth minus bottom fifth 1.8% a month, Newey-West t 4.7; survives a site-wide correction for multiple tests
Does momentum crash after the market has fallen for two years?FailedPoints that way, misses the bar set in advance

How the tests were run

The rules, assets, costs and tests were fixed in the pre-registered specification before any Indian result was computed, and every rule tried is counted. These are historical tests on indices, not signals.

Every rule pays 0.10% of value traded each way and fund running costs while invested. After-tax results apply Indian capital-gains rules by date and sell everything at the end. The deflated Sharpe ratio asks whether an edge over buy-and-hold is bigger than luck would produce across all the rules tried: below 0.95, it could be luck. Read the specification.

Trend following, full history

Each rule holds an asset only while its trend is up and sits in cash otherwise. The two grids give every rule on every asset (35 pairs) over its full history: the after-tax gap against buying and holding, and how much shallower or deeper the worst fall was. The full numbers are in the table below them.

After tax, rule minus buy-and-hold

Percentage points a year, full history of each asset. Blue: the rule kept more after tax; red: buying and holding did.

After tax, rule minus buy-and-hold. Heat table, 7 rows by 5 columns. Values from −6.8 pts to +1.4 pts.

Worst fall, rule minus buy-and-hold

Percentage points. Blue: the rule's worst fall was shallower than buying and holding's; red: deeper.

Worst fall, rule minus buy-and-hold. Heat table, 7 rows by 5 columns. Values from −2 pts to +39 pts.

Every rule on every asset in a table: returns, falls, time invested and the deflated Sharpe
Strategy minus buy-and-hold. Returns are annual (CAGR); drawdown is the worst peak-to-trough fall. After-tax uses Indian capital-gains rules by date.
AssetRuleFromRule CAGRBuy-hold CAGRAfter tax, rule minus buy-holdRule worst fallBuy-hold worst fallTime investedDeflated Sharpe vs buy-holdMore
Nifty 5010-month average2000-04-0410.9%12.0%−1.1 pts−44%−60%71%0.01
Nifty 50200-day average2000-04-189.7%12.3%−2.1 pts−32%−60%71%0.00
Nifty 5012-month momentum2000-07-049.7%12.2%−2.4 pts−40%−60%64%0.00
Nifty 50Blend of all four2000-07-0410.9%12.2%−2.2 pts−26%−60%59%0.01
Nifty 50Breakout2000-07-039.3%12.3%−3.2 pts−31%−60%56%0.00
Nifty 50010-month average1995-11-0211.6%13.2%−2.5 pts−45%−67%69%0.01
Nifty 500200-day average1995-11-1012.2%13.3%−1.4 pts−39%−67%68%0.01
Nifty 50012-month momentum1996-02-029.7%13.9%−3.9 pts−49%−67%60%0.00
Nifty 500Blend of all four1996-02-0211.1%13.9%−3.6 pts−46%−67%58%0.00
Nifty 500Breakout1996-01-319.6%14.0%−5.2 pts−45%−67%50%0.00
Nifty Next 5010-month average2003-09-0216.3%17.1%−1.3 pts−37%−72%74%0.03
Nifty Next 50200-day average2003-08-2816.2%17.1%−2.0 pts−33%−72%73%0.02
Nifty Next 5012-month momentum2003-12-0212.0%16.2%−4.2 pts−44%−72%67%0.00
Nifty Next 50Blend of all four2003-12-0214.2%16.2%−2.9 pts−35%−72%63%0.01
Nifty Next 50Breakout2003-11-1012.6%16.4%−3.8 pts−41%−72%63%0.00
Nifty Midcap 15010-month average2006-02-0210.1%14.9%−5.0 pts−53%−73%74%0.00
Nifty Midcap 150200-day average2006-01-1816.2%15.0%+0.1 pts−37%−73%72%0.10
Nifty Midcap 15012-month momentum2006-05-037.2%13.9%−6.8 pts−55%−73%66%0.00
Nifty Midcap 150Blend of all four2006-05-0311.6%13.9%−2.8 pts−39%−73%62%0.01
Nifty Midcap 150Breakout2006-04-0510.6%14.1%−3.9 pts−42%−73%56%0.00
Nifty Smallcap 25010-month average2006-02-0214.3%13.4%+0.1 pts−45%−76%67%0.09
Nifty Smallcap 250200-day average2006-01-1815.5%13.4%+1.4 pts−36%−76%66%0.14
Nifty Smallcap 25012-month momentum2006-05-0310.9%12.3%−1.9 pts−50%−76%55%0.02
Nifty Smallcap 250Blend of all four2006-05-0313.4%12.3%0.0 pts−37%−76%58%0.08
Nifty Smallcap 250Breakout2006-04-0512.5%12.8%−1.4 pts−38%−76%50%0.04
Gold10-month average2001-06-0412.0%14.6%−3.3 pts−23%−26%79%0.00
Gold200-day average2001-05-2911.8%14.4%−4.0 pts−28%−26%79%0.00
Gold12-month momentum2001-09-0413.0%14.6%−2.3 pts−23%−26%72%0.00
GoldBlend of all four2001-09-0411.3%14.6%−5.3 pts−22%−26%63%0.00
GoldBreakout2001-08-0912.7%14.7%−3.3 pts−23%−26%73%0.00
G-sec 5-year10-month average2002-07-027.3%7.4%−0.2 pts−5%−7%94%0.03
G-sec 5-year200-day average2002-06-247.1%7.5%−0.5 pts−6%−7%94%0.00
G-sec 5-year12-month momentum2002-10-036.8%7.3%−1.0 pts−5%−7%62%0.01
G-sec 5-yearBlend of all four2002-10-036.8%7.3%−2.2 pts−5%−7%60%0.00
G-sec 5-yearBreakout2002-09-057.0%7.3%−0.3 pts−6%−7%93%0.01

Gold: growth of 1 under each trend rule and buy-and-hold

Weekly, pre-tax, after costs.

How to read it. Log scale, so equal slopes are equal returns. Look first at the big falls, where the rule lines flatten out, then at where each line ends. Tax, shown in the table, widens the gap against the rules.

Buy and hold200-day average12-month momentumBlend

Loading chart…

Method JSON

Sector momentum

Each month, hold the three NSE sector indices with the best 12-month (or 6-month) return, skipping the latest month, against an equal-weighted basket of all sectors. Only two rules were tried, so the bar for luck is lower; over the full period neither clears it.

RuleWindowMomentum CAGREqual-weight CAGRNifty 500 CAGRMomentum minus EWMonths beating EWWorst fallDeflated Sharpe vs EWMore
mom12_1full14.5%15.5%13.7%−1.0 pts49%−56%0.33
mom12_1first_half16.2%17.1%14.4%−0.9 pts54%−56%–
mom12_1second_half12.8%13.8%12.9%−1.0 pts45%−36%–
mom12_1since_201214.0%16.2%14.3%−2.1 pts47%−36%–
mom6_1full16.9%15.5%13.7%+1.4 pts50%−53%0.66
mom6_1first_half17.6%17.1%14.4%+0.5 pts49%−53%–
mom6_1second_half16.4%13.8%12.9%+2.7 pts52%−42%–
mom6_1since_201217.0%16.2%14.3%+0.8 pts51%−42%–

Sector momentum against equal weight

Monthly, after costs.

How to read it. The heavier line is the momentum portfolio, the grey line the basket it chooses from. A gap that opens and closes is noise; the deflated Sharpe in the table says whether it is more than that.

Top-3 sector momentumEqual-weight sectors

Loading chart…

Method JSON

Why an ensemble

Each of the 24 votes can be run alone as a rule: hold the Nifty 500 while it votes up, cash otherwise. Their results differ widely, from 9.1% to 16.4% a year, and which one wins depends on the period. The ensemble holds the share of votes that are up: 60% invested on average.

Every rule: reward against the worst fall

Nifty 500, full history, after costs, before tax. Each dot is one of the 24 single rules; colour is the signal type.

How to read it. Up is better reward for risk; right is a shallower worst fall. Buying and holding sits far to the left. The single rules scatter widely. The ensemble ranks 9th of 25 on Sharpe without anyone having to know in advance which rule would do best.

Past returnPrice vs averageAverage crossoverChannel positionEnsembleBuy and hold
0.20.40.60.8−80%−60%−40%−20%Worst fall, % →↑ Sharpe ratioPast return, 1 month: Sharpe 0.53, worst fall -28%, 13.9% a yearPrice vs average, 1 month: Sharpe 0.67, worst fall -20%, 16.1% a yearAverage crossover, 1 month: Sharpe 0.55, worst fall -26%, 14.3% a yearChannel position, 1 month: Sharpe 0.66, worst fall -21%, 16.0% a yearPast return, 2 months: Sharpe 0.62, worst fall -36%, 15.7% a yearPrice vs average, 2 months: Sharpe 0.59, worst fall -31%, 15.1% a yearAverage crossover, 2 months: Sharpe 0.53, worst fall -38%, 14.5% a yearChannel position, 2 months: Sharpe 0.63, worst fall -38%, 15.8% a yearPast return, 3 months: Sharpe 0.56, worst fall -42%, 14.6% a yearPrice vs average, 3 months: Sharpe 0.67, worst fall -34%, 16.4% a yearAverage crossover, 3 months: Sharpe 0.49, worst fall -44%, 13.9% a yearChannel position, 3 months: Sharpe 0.64, worst fall -40%, 15.9% a yearPast return, 6 months: Sharpe 0.22, worst fall -45%, 9.1% a yearPrice vs average, 6 months: Sharpe 0.56, worst fall -40%, 14.6% a yearAverage crossover, 6 months: Sharpe 0.43, worst fall -53%, 13.0% a yearChannel position, 6 months: Sharpe 0.59, worst fall -32%, 15.2% a yearPast return, 9 months: Sharpe 0.25, worst fall -52%, 9.6% a yearPrice vs average, 9 months: Sharpe 0.47, worst fall -34%, 13.3% a yearAverage crossover, 9 months: Sharpe 0.24, worst fall -49%, 9.5% a yearChannel position, 9 months: Sharpe 0.44, worst fall -38%, 12.6% a yearPast return, 12 months: Sharpe 0.28, worst fall -49%, 10.1% a yearPrice vs average, 12 months: Sharpe 0.36, worst fall -38%, 11.4% a yearAverage crossover, 12 months: Sharpe 0.23, worst fall -49%, 9.4% a yearChannel position, 12 months: Sharpe 0.39, worst fall -40%, 11.9% a yearEnsemble (all 24): Sharpe 0.56, worst fall -33%, 13.8% a yearBuy and hold: Sharpe 0.40, worst fall -67%EnsembleBuy and holdPrice vs average, 1 monthPast return, 6 months0.20.40.60.8−80%−60%−40%−20%Worst fall, % →↑ Sharpe ratioPast return, 1 month: Sharpe 0.53, worst fall -28%, 13.9% a yearPrice vs average, 1 month: Sharpe 0.67, worst fall -20%, 16.1% a yearAverage crossover, 1 month: Sharpe 0.55, worst fall -26%, 14.3% a yearChannel position, 1 month: Sharpe 0.66, worst fall -21%, 16.0% a yearPast return, 2 months: Sharpe 0.62, worst fall -36%, 15.7% a yearPrice vs average, 2 months: Sharpe 0.59, worst fall -31%, 15.1% a yearAverage crossover, 2 months: Sharpe 0.53, worst fall -38%, 14.5% a yearChannel position, 2 months: Sharpe 0.63, worst fall -38%, 15.8% a yearPast return, 3 months: Sharpe 0.56, worst fall -42%, 14.6% a yearPrice vs average, 3 months: Sharpe 0.67, worst fall -34%, 16.4% a yearAverage crossover, 3 months: Sharpe 0.49, worst fall -44%, 13.9% a yearChannel position, 3 months: Sharpe 0.64, worst fall -40%, 15.9% a yearPast return, 6 months: Sharpe 0.22, worst fall -45%, 9.1% a yearPrice vs average, 6 months: Sharpe 0.56, worst fall -40%, 14.6% a yearAverage crossover, 6 months: Sharpe 0.43, worst fall -53%, 13.0% a yearChannel position, 6 months: Sharpe 0.59, worst fall -32%, 15.2% a yearPast return, 9 months: Sharpe 0.25, worst fall -52%, 9.6% a yearPrice vs average, 9 months: Sharpe 0.47, worst fall -34%, 13.3% a yearAverage crossover, 9 months: Sharpe 0.24, worst fall -49%, 9.5% a yearChannel position, 9 months: Sharpe 0.44, worst fall -38%, 12.6% a yearPast return, 12 months: Sharpe 0.28, worst fall -49%, 10.1% a yearPrice vs average, 12 months: Sharpe 0.36, worst fall -38%, 11.4% a yearAverage crossover, 12 months: Sharpe 0.23, worst fall -49%, 9.4% a yearChannel position, 12 months: Sharpe 0.39, worst fall -40%, 11.9% a yearEnsemble (all 24): Sharpe 0.56, worst fall -33%, 13.8% a yearBuy and hold: Sharpe 0.40, worst fall -67%EnsembleBuy and holdPrice vs average, 1 monthPast return, 6 months0.20.40.60.8−80%−60%−40%−20%Worst fall, % →↑ Sharpe ratioPast return, 1 month: Sharpe 0.53, worst fall -28%, 13.9% a yearPrice vs average, 1 month: Sharpe 0.67, worst fall -20%, 16.1% a yearAverage crossover, 1 month: Sharpe 0.55, worst fall -26%, 14.3% a yearChannel position, 1 month: Sharpe 0.66, worst fall -21%, 16.0% a yearPast return, 2 months: Sharpe 0.62, worst fall -36%, 15.7% a yearPrice vs average, 2 months: Sharpe 0.59, worst fall -31%, 15.1% a yearAverage crossover, 2 months: Sharpe 0.53, worst fall -38%, 14.5% a yearChannel position, 2 months: Sharpe 0.63, worst fall -38%, 15.8% a yearPast return, 3 months: Sharpe 0.56, worst fall -42%, 14.6% a yearPrice vs average, 3 months: Sharpe 0.67, worst fall -34%, 16.4% a yearAverage crossover, 3 months: Sharpe 0.49, worst fall -44%, 13.9% a yearChannel position, 3 months: Sharpe 0.64, worst fall -40%, 15.9% a yearPast return, 6 months: Sharpe 0.22, worst fall -45%, 9.1% a yearPrice vs average, 6 months: Sharpe 0.56, worst fall -40%, 14.6% a yearAverage crossover, 6 months: Sharpe 0.43, worst fall -53%, 13.0% a yearChannel position, 6 months: Sharpe 0.59, worst fall -32%, 15.2% a yearPast return, 9 months: Sharpe 0.25, worst fall -52%, 9.6% a yearPrice vs average, 9 months: Sharpe 0.47, worst fall -34%, 13.3% a yearAverage crossover, 9 months: Sharpe 0.24, worst fall -49%, 9.5% a yearChannel position, 9 months: Sharpe 0.44, worst fall -38%, 12.6% a yearPast return, 12 months: Sharpe 0.28, worst fall -49%, 10.1% a yearPrice vs average, 12 months: Sharpe 0.36, worst fall -38%, 11.4% a yearAverage crossover, 12 months: Sharpe 0.23, worst fall -49%, 9.4% a yearChannel position, 12 months: Sharpe 0.39, worst fall -40%, 11.9% a yearEnsemble (all 24): Sharpe 0.56, worst fall -33%, 13.8% a yearBuy and hold: Sharpe 0.40, worst fall -67%EnsembleBuy and holdPrice vs average, 1 monthPast return, 6 months

Rank among the 25 strategies, rolling five-year windows

Percentile of each strategy's Sharpe ratio among all 25 in the five years to each date (100 = best).

How to read it. The best rule over the whole period spent 17% of five-year stretches in the bottom fifth; nobody holding it then would have known it would win. The ensemble spent 0% there. That is the case for it.

EnsembleBest single rule over the full period (Price vs average, 1 month)Worst single rule (Past return, 6 months)

Loading chart…

Source: NSE total-return indices; gold in rupees (WGC); NSE 5-year G-sec index; 91-day T-bill (RBI); rupee per dollar from ECB reference rates.
Method JSON

Nifty 500: growth of 1

Weekly, after trading and fund costs, before tax. The signal is set at one close and acted on at the next.

How to read it. Log scale, so equal slopes are equal returns. The best and worst single rules are chosen with hindsight. The ensemble sits between them, with shallower falls than buying and holding.

EnsembleBuy and holdBest single: Price vs average, 1 monthWorst single: Past return, 6 months

Loading chart…

Source: NSE total-return indices; gold in rupees (WGC); NSE 5-year G-sec index; 91-day T-bill (RBI); rupee per dollar from ECB reference rates.
Method JSON
Every rule in a table
Every specification on the Nifty 500, full history, before tax.
RuleReturn a yearVolatilitySharpeWorst fallTime investedTurnover a yearMore
Past return, 1 month13.9%14.3%0.53−28%58%19.4×
Price vs average, 1 month16.1%14.0%0.67−20%58%23.4×
Average crossover, 1 month14.3%14.3%0.55−26%58%13.7×
Channel position, 1 month16.0%14.2%0.66−21%60%21.7×
Past return, 2 months15.7%15.0%0.62−36%60%12.7×
Price vs average, 2 months15.1%14.6%0.59−31%60%14.5×
Average crossover, 2 months14.5%15.3%0.53−38%60%6.5×
Channel position, 2 months15.8%14.7%0.63−38%61%12.8×
Past return, 3 months14.6%14.8%0.56−42%59%10.4×
Price vs average, 3 months16.4%14.6%0.67−34%59%11.4×
Average crossover, 3 months13.9%15.7%0.49−44%60%4.3×
Channel position, 3 months15.9%14.7%0.64−40%61%11.1×
Past return, 6 months9.1%15.8%0.22−45%57%8.4×
Price vs average, 6 months14.6%14.9%0.56−40%60%7.9×
Average crossover, 6 months13.0%16.3%0.43−53%59%2.1×
Channel position, 6 months15.2%14.8%0.59−32%61%7.9×
Past return, 9 months9.6%15.4%0.25−52%58%7.0×
Price vs average, 9 months13.3%15.2%0.47−34%59%7.4×
Average crossover, 9 months9.5%16.1%0.24−49%59%1.6×
Channel position, 9 months12.6%14.6%0.44−38%61%7.6×
Past return, 12 months10.1%15.8%0.28−49%60%7.4×
Price vs average, 12 months11.4%15.0%0.36−38%59%8.0×
Average crossover, 12 months9.4%16.1%0.23−49%59%1.4×
Channel position, 12 months11.9%14.9%0.39−40%62%6.6×
Ensemble (all 24)13.8%13.0%0.56−33%60%8.9×

Buying and holding: 13.9% a year, Sharpe 0.40, worst fall -67%. Short-horizon rules trade often; after Indian capital-gains tax their results would be markedly worse (see the single rules).

Timing luck

Many rules are checked once a month. Which day? Here each rule is checked once every 21 sessions, on each of the 21 possible starting days. The bars show the range of annual returns that produced; the tick is the "tranched" version, which splits money across all 21 days, as Newfound Research recommends. The typical rule's range is 4.2 points a year.

WorstRange across rebalance dates tranchedBestSpread
Past return, 1 month 8.3% 13.3% 5.0 pts
Price vs average, 1 month 4.3% 15.7% 11.3 pts
Average crossover, 1 month 6.6% 14.5% 7.9 pts
Channel position, 1 month 5.5% 15.8% 10.3 pts
Past return, 2 months 8.4% 14.0% 5.6 pts
Price vs average, 2 months 7.8% 14.6% 6.8 pts
Average crossover, 2 months 9.2% 12.8% 3.6 pts
Channel position, 2 months 8.9% 14.6% 5.7 pts
Past return, 3 months 10.9% 15.9% 5.0 pts
Price vs average, 3 months 9.2% 15.4% 6.2 pts
Average crossover, 3 months 9.4% 12.1% 2.8 pts
Channel position, 3 months 10.4% 15.4% 5.1 pts
Past return, 6 months 7.2% 12.0% 4.8 pts
Price vs average, 6 months 10.4% 13.9% 3.5 pts
Average crossover, 6 months 8.9% 12.2% 3.3 pts
Channel position, 6 months 10.1% 14.3% 4.2 pts
Past return, 9 months 8.1% 11.7% 3.6 pts
Price vs average, 9 months 9.4% 12.4% 3.0 pts
Average crossover, 9 months 9.2% 11.0% 1.7 pts
Channel position, 9 months 9.2% 13.4% 4.2 pts
Past return, 12 months 8.2% 10.3% 2.1 pts
Price vs average, 12 months 8.8% 11.7% 2.9 pts
Average crossover, 12 months 9.5% 11.7% 2.2 pts
Channel position, 12 months 8.6% 12.2% 3.6 pts
Ensemble (all 24) 9.9% 13.2% 3.2 pts

Annual return of each rule on the Nifty 500 checked every 21 sessions, by starting day, full history, before tax. Tranching does not raise the expected return; it removes the luck of the draw.

What happened next

Nifty 500 total returns after every session in each score band. A trend score describes the past; this figure shows how little it has said about the next few months on its own.

After each score band: the next 3 and 12 months

Nifty 500 total return after every session in the band, full history. Today's band, 0–20, is in bold.

How to read it. Each dot is the median Nifty 500 return after sessions in that band, and the bar is the middle half of those returns. The shaded column is all sessions. The number on the right counts separate spells that do not overlap: thousands of sessions are only this many independent pieces of evidence. A band whose bar sits over the shaded column has said little; hollow rows have under five spells.

After each score band: the next 3 and 12 months. 2 horizons, 5 bands. 0–20: median +4.3%, 52 spells; 20–40: median +3.5%, 64 spells; 40–60: median +2.1%, 75 spells; 60–80: median +3.8%, 76 spells; 80–100: median +4.9%, 76 spells. All sessions: median +4.1%.

Method
Every column in a table: share up and the worst fall too
Nifty 500 total return after each session in the band, full history.
ReadingSessionsSeparate 3-month spellsNext 3 months, medianNext 3 months, middle half3 months: share upWorst fall within 3 months, medianNext 12 months, medianMore
0–201,52852+4.3%−4% to +13%64%−5.3%+14.1%
20–4093064+3.5%−5% to +11%61%−5.3%+9.7%
40–601,05875+2.1%−7% to +9%56%−5.6%+7.8%
60–801,00976+3.8%−3% to +10%65%−3.5%+11.6%
80–1003,02876+4.9%−3% to +12%66%−3.7%+13.9%
All sessions7,553120+4.1%−4% to +11%64%−4.4%+12.1%

The tests

Written down before any result was computed. The question was never whether trend following beats the market here; an earlier test said no. It was whether an ensemble removes the fragility of single rules, and what it costs.

  1. TR-H1 Is the ensemble a safer choice than picking one specification? Passed Yes. Across 309 rolling five-year windows its worst rank among the 25 strategies was the 28th percentile, against the 6th for the typical single specification. Its Sharpe ratio over the full period, 0.56, was above the typical single's 0.53.
    Worst rank in any of 309 five-year windows (percentile among 25) typical single rule 6th 28th
  2. TR-H2 How much does the day of the month you check a rule matter? Measured A lot. Checked once every 21 sessions, the typical specification's annual return moved by 4.2 points depending on the day; the worst case was 11.3 points. The ensemble's spread was 3.2 points.
  3. TR-H3 Does the ensemble beat buying and holding, once the number of rules tried is counted? Failed No. 13.8% a year against 13.9%, with a far smaller worst fall (-33% against -67%). The deflated Sharpe ratio is 0.02 with 84 trials counted; it would need 0.95. Before tax.
    Deflated Sharpe ratio against buying and holding, 84 trials needed 0.95 0.02
  4. TR-H4 Does the score add to a forecast of volatility or a 10% fall? Failed No. For a 10% fall within three months p = 0.77; for volatility p = 0.02, but with opposite signs in the two halves of the sample, and neither improved out-of-sample forecasts.
    p-value, score added to the odds of a 10% fall bar 0.025 10.10.010.0010.0001 0.77
    p-value, score added to the volatility forecast bar 0.025 10.10.010.0010.0001 0.025

    p-values on a log scale; smaller is stronger evidence, to the right. Shaded: the side that passes the bar set in advance.

    • 10% fall: same sign in both halves: met
    • Volatility: same sign in both halves: not met
    • Improves out-of-sample forecasts: not met

Tests, samples and pass bars were fixed in the pre-registered specification before any result was computed. A pass needs every condition written there, not only a small p-value.

How it is built

Four signal types at six horizons, on the excess return over cash. Equal weights, nothing fitted.

The signals. Past return (is the price above where it was h sessions ago?), price against its average (above its h-session average?), average crossover (is a quarter-length average above the h-session one?) and channel position (is the price in the upper half of its h-session range?). Horizons are 21, 42, 63, 126, 189 and 252 sessions. Each "up" is one vote; the score is the share of up votes.

Why these. Levine and Pedersen (2016) show that past-return and moving-average rules are close relatives, both weighted sums of past returns. So diversifying across horizons matters more than across signal types. Corey Hoffstein and colleagues at Newfound Research have written at length on two other risks of single rules. One is specification risk: the best lookback in a backtest is close to random out of sample. The other is timing luck (see "Rebalance Timing Luck: The (Dumb) Luck of Smart Beta", 2020). Their remedy for both is an ensemble with tranched rebalancing, which is what this page measures. We follow the method, not any product.

Trend environment. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen's Trend Barometer (Top Traders Unplugged) reads how strongly markets are trending. Its method is not public, so ours is a separate, disclosed measure in the same spirit.

Execution and costs. Signals at one day's close, trades at the next day's close. 0.10% of value traded each way; index-fund running costs while invested; the cash leg earns the 91-day T-bill rate less a liquid fund's costs.

Stock momentum: is it paying?

Three readings, each against its own history. Momentum's return: the top fifth of stocks by the blend minus the bottom fifth, over the last 12 months (gross, before costs). Momentum breadth: the share of the 1,339 liquid stocks whose 12-1 month return is positive. The crash flag: whether the Nifty 500's total return over two years is negative.

Momentum's return, 12 months
+27%54th percentile, to Sept 2026
Momentum breadth
45%of stocks up over 12-1 months; 24th percentile
Crash flag
Onthe market is below where it was two years ago

Momentum's 12-month return

Top fifth minus bottom fifth by the blended score, rolling 12 months, gross. Monthly.

How to read it. Above zero, past winners kept winning. The deep plunges below zero are momentum crashes; note when they came.

Loading chart…

Source: NSE bhavcopy (main board), prices adjusted for corporate actions; liquid point-in-time universe; NSE Indices for Nifty200 Momentum 30.
Method JSON

Rotating into the leading sectors

Each month, hold the three of 13 non-overlapping sectors with the highest blended score, against all 13 equally weighted, after costs. This was written down in advance, as the third sector-momentum rule we have tried. It failed: 16.0% a year against 14.6%, beating the basket in 49% of months; the edge was positive in the first half and negative in the second; deflated Sharpe 0.57 against the 0.95 needed. Formed at the end of Sept 2026, it would hold Pharma, Metal, Media.

Sector momentum against all sectors

Growth of 1, monthly, after costs; 13 non-overlapping NSE sector indices, total returns.

How to read it. The heavier line rotates into the three strongest sectors each month; the grey line holds them all. A gap that opens and closes again is noise.

Top three sectors by blended momentumAll sectors, equal weight

Loading chart…

Source: NSE Indices total-return series (dividends reinvested).
Method JSON

Six flavours, blended

Momentum can be measured many ways. The blend z-scores each of the six within the universe every month, caps extremes at three standard deviations, and averages them with equal weights. Below: each flavour's long-short record since Nov 2004, and how alike their rankings are.

Top fifth minus bottom fifth: growth of 1

Monthly, gross of costs, log scale. A factor measure, not an investable portfolio.

How to read it. Log scale. Look at the steep drops, which are momentum crashes. Residual momentum, which strips out the market's own moves, has the steadiest line.

Blend12-1 monthResidual52-week high

Loading chart…

Source: NSE bhavcopy (main board), prices adjusted for corporate actions; liquid point-in-time universe; NSE Indices for Nifty200 Momentum 30.
Method JSON

Each flavour: reward against the worst fall

Long-short (top fifth minus bottom fifth), monthly, gross, since the start of the sample.

How to read it. Up is a better Sharpe ratio; right is a shallower worst fall. The blend is the large dot.

Single flavourBlend of all six
0.60.81.01.2−80%−70%−60%−50%−40%−30%Worst fall, % →↑ Sharpe ratio12-1 month return: Sharpe 0.80, worst fall -72%, 1.55% a month6-1 month return: Sharpe 0.92, worst fall -44%, 1.45% a monthVolatility-adjusted 12-1: Sharpe 0.94, worst fall -61%, 1.61% a monthResidual (stock-specific) 12-1: Sharpe 1.17, worst fall -40%, 1.33% a monthNearness to 52-week high: Sharpe 0.63, worst fall -71%, 1.43% a monthNSE's normalised score: Sharpe 1.11, worst fall -49%, 1.86% a monthBlend of all six: Sharpe 1.01, worst fall -59%, 1.83% a monthBlend12-16-1Vol-adj.Residual52-wk highNSE score0.60.81.01.2−80%−70%−60%−50%−40%−30%Worst fall, % →↑ Sharpe ratio12-1 month return: Sharpe 0.80, worst fall -72%, 1.55% a month6-1 month return: Sharpe 0.92, worst fall -44%, 1.45% a monthVolatility-adjusted 12-1: Sharpe 0.94, worst fall -61%, 1.61% a monthResidual (stock-specific) 12-1: Sharpe 1.17, worst fall -40%, 1.33% a monthNearness to 52-week high: Sharpe 0.63, worst fall -71%, 1.43% a monthNSE's normalised score: Sharpe 1.11, worst fall -49%, 1.86% a monthBlend of all six: Sharpe 1.01, worst fall -59%, 1.83% a monthBlend12-16-1Vol-adj.Residual52-wk highNSE score0.60.81.01.2−80%−60%−40%Worst fall, % →↑ Sharpe ratio12-1 month return: Sharpe 0.80, worst fall -72%, 1.55% a month6-1 month return: Sharpe 0.92, worst fall -44%, 1.45% a monthVolatility-adjusted 12-1: Sharpe 0.94, worst fall -61%, 1.61% a monthResidual (stock-specific) 12-1: Sharpe 1.17, worst fall -40%, 1.33% a monthNearness to 52-week high: Sharpe 0.63, worst fall -71%, 1.43% a monthNSE's normalised score: Sharpe 1.11, worst fall -49%, 1.86% a monthBlend of all six: Sharpe 1.01, worst fall -59%, 1.83% a monthBlend12-16-1Vol-adj.Residual52-wk highNSE score

How alike the flavours are

Average month-by-month rank correlation between flavours. The stronger the colour, the more alike; faint pairs bring the most variety to a blend.

12-16-1Vol-adj.Residual52-wk highNSE score
12-1
6-10.67
Vol-adj.0.970.66
Residual0.730.530.74
52-wk high0.520.530.550.36
NSE score0.820.820.850.640.71
The flavours in tables: long-short and long-only
Long-short (top fifth minus bottom fifth), monthly, gross.
FlavourAverage monthVolatilitySharpeWorst fallMore
Residual (stock-specific) 12-11.33%13.7%1.17−40%
NSE's normalised score1.86%20.1%1.11−49%
Blend of all six1.83%21.6%1.01−59%
Volatility-adjusted 12-11.61%20.5%0.94−61%
6-1 month return1.45%18.8%0.92−44%
12-1 month return1.55%23.3%0.80−72%
Nearness to 52-week high1.43%27.1%0.63−71%
Average month-by-month rank correlation between flavours. Lower means more variety to blend.
12-16-1Vol-adj.Residual52-wk highNSE scoreMore
12-1 month return1.000.670.970.730.520.82
6-1 month return0.671.000.660.530.530.82
Volatility-adjusted 12-10.970.661.000.740.550.85
Residual (stock-specific) 12-10.730.530.741.000.360.64
Nearness to 52-week high0.520.530.550.361.000.71
NSE's normalised score0.820.820.850.640.711.00
Long-only: hold the top fifth, equal weight, after 0.25% trading cost each way, against all liquid stocks equally weighted. Price returns.
FlavourReturn a yearAll stocksDifferenceWorst fallTurnover a yearMore
12-1 month return22.1%13.7%+8.3 pts−74%2.9×
6-1 month return20.6%13.7%+6.9 pts−71%4.3×
Volatility-adjusted 12-124.2%13.7%+10.5 pts−73%3.0×
Residual (stock-specific) 12-120.3%13.7%+6.6 pts−75%3.2×
Nearness to 52-week high20.4%13.7%+6.7 pts−67%5.2×
NSE's normalised score26.4%13.7%+12.6 pts−72%3.2×
Blend of all six26.0%13.7%+12.2 pts−72%2.9×

The crash flag

Daniel and Moskowitz (2016) found that momentum's crashes come in "panic states": after a long market fall, when the market rebounds, last year's losers (the most beaten-down stocks) jump and last year's winners lag. Our flag is their bear-market indicator: the Nifty 500's two-year return below zero.

Every month of momentum, with the crash flag

Long-short return of the blend each month, gross. Shaded: months when the flag was on going in.

How to read it. Momentum gained in 71% of months. The deep red bars are the crashes; see how many sit in the shaded spans, which follow a two-year fall in the market.

Momentum lostMomentum gainedCrash flag on
Crash flag on: the Nifty 500 was below its level two years earlierCrash flag on: the Nifty 500 was below its level two years earlierCrash flag on: the Nifty 500 was below its level two years earlierCrash flag on: the Nifty 500 was below its level two years earlierCrash flag on: the Nifty 500 was below its level two years earlierCrash flag on: the Nifty 500 was below its level two years earlierCrash flag on: the Nifty 500 was below its level two years earlierCrash flag on: the Nifty 500 was below its level two years earlierCrash flag on: the Nifty 500 was below its level two years earlier−40−20020Dec 2004: −0.3%Jan 2005: 7.5%Feb 2005: 3.5%Mar 2005: 6.4%Apr 2005: 4.0%May 2005: −2.2%Jun 2005: 1.0%Jul 2005: 4.3%Aug 2005: 9.0%Sep 2005: −3.3%Oct 2005: −0.5%Nov 2005: 5.5%Dec 2005: 7.9%Jan 2006: 8.8%Feb 2006: −1.6%Mar 2006: 10.2%Apr 2006: 4.2%May 2006: −5.7%Jun 2006: −2.0%Jul 2006: 1.8%Aug 2006: −3.9%Sep 2006: −0.5%Oct 2006: 5.7%Nov 2006: 8.9%Dec 2006: 1.4%Jan 2007: 1.8%Feb 2007: 0.2%Mar 2007: 3.5%Apr 2007: 1.9%May 2007: 5.1%Jun 2007: 4.2%Jul 2007: 3.5%Aug 2007: 3.0%Sep 2007: 7.6%Oct 2007: 23.1%Nov 2007: 4.3%Dec 2007: −6.1%Jan 2008: 0.4%Feb 2008: −5.8%Mar 2008: −4.5%Apr 2008: −3.5%May 2008: 3.8%Jun 2008: −0.9%Jul 2008: 3.7%Aug 2008: −7.7%Sep 2008: 3.7%Oct 2008: 6.3%Nov 2008: 6.3% (flag on)Dec 2008: −17.0% (flag on)May 2009: −45.2% (flag on)Jun 2009: 1.8%Jul 2009: 3.2% (flag on)Aug 2009: −10.1%Sep 2009: 1.3%Oct 2009: 7.8%Nov 2009: 4.0% (flag on)Dec 2009: −1.4% (flag on)Jan 2010: −1.6% (flag on)Feb 2010: 3.6% (flag on)Mar 2010: 8.1% (flag on)Apr 2010: 3.6%May 2010: 3.2%Jun 2010: 0.0%Jul 2010: 3.4%Aug 2010: 6.2%Sep 2010: 1.9%Oct 2010: 3.9%Nov 2010: 6.2%Dec 2010: −4.9%Jan 2011: 5.7%Feb 2011: 4.4%Mar 2011: 2.7%Apr 2011: 0.3%May 2011: 7.9%Jun 2011: 4.7%Jul 2011: 6.8%Aug 2011: 13.1%Sep 2011: 0.2%Oct 2011: −2.0% (flag on)Nov 2011: 9.5%Dec 2011: 5.9% (flag on)Jan 2012: −23.4% (flag on)Feb 2012: −4.9%Mar 2012: 9.1%Apr 2012: 3.7% (flag on)May 2012: 8.5% (flag on)Jun 2012: −4.6% (flag on)Jul 2012: 3.4% (flag on)Aug 2012: 7.0% (flag on)Sep 2012: −9.4% (flag on)Oct 2012: 7.0% (flag on)Nov 2012: 2.6% (flag on)Dec 2012: −1.0%Jan 2013: 2.9% (flag on)Feb 2013: 5.9%Mar 2013: 8.1%Apr 2013: −5.1% (flag on)May 2013: 10.6%Jun 2013: 11.3%Jul 2013: 11.6%Aug 2013: −4.1%Sep 2013: −4.7%Oct 2013: −12.6%Nov 2013: 2.5%Dec 2013: −0.1%Jan 2014: 8.6%Feb 2014: 7.0%Mar 2014: −10.0%Apr 2014: −2.7%May 2014: −10.5%Jun 2014: 6.2%Jul 2014: 1.7%Aug 2014: 5.7%Sep 2014: 9.6%Oct 2014: 1.8%Nov 2014: 5.9%Dec 2014: 5.0%Jan 2015: 5.0%Feb 2015: 2.0%Mar 2015: 10.6%Apr 2015: −7.3%May 2015: 5.1%Jun 2015: 4.8%Jul 2015: 8.7%Aug 2015: 2.4%Sep 2015: 0.3%Oct 2015: −5.8%Nov 2015: 2.8%Dec 2015: 2.3%Jan 2016: 2.4%Feb 2016: −5.8%Mar 2016: 3.2%Apr 2016: −1.1%May 2016: 5.6%Jun 2016: 0.4%Jul 2016: 0.9%Aug 2016: 1.8%Sep 2016: −0.5%Oct 2016: 3.7%Nov 2016: −4.8%Dec 2016: −1.6%Jan 2017: 3.2%Feb 2017: 1.0%Mar 2017: 0.2%Apr 2017: 2.1%May 2017: 5.2%Jun 2017: 5.5%Jul 2017: 1.6%Aug 2017: 9.5%Sep 2017: 3.2%Oct 2017: 5.1%Nov 2017: 0.2%Dec 2017: −4.0%Jan 2018: 2.4%Feb 2018: 3.4%Mar 2018: 5.5%Apr 2018: 11.1%May 2018: 2.9%Jun 2018: 3.4%Jul 2018: 0.9%Aug 2018: 4.4%Sep 2018: 6.1%Oct 2018: −1.9%Nov 2018: −0.6%Dec 2018: −4.6%Jan 2019: 7.2%Feb 2019: −0.8%Mar 2019: −5.2%Apr 2019: 5.1%May 2019: 3.1%Jun 2019: 11.1%Jul 2019: 7.2%Aug 2019: 5.8%Sep 2019: 1.9%Oct 2019: 2.4%Nov 2019: −5.1%Dec 2019: 5.1%Jan 2020: 4.4%Feb 2020: 11.6%Mar 2020: 10.0%Apr 2020: −10.5% (flag on)May 2020: 8.3% (flag on)Jun 2020: −19.6% (flag on)Jul 2020: 9.7% (flag on)Aug 2020: −10.8% (flag on)Sep 2020: 9.9% (flag on)Oct 2020: −0.2%Nov 2020: −8.9%Dec 2020: −0.6%Jan 2021: 0.9%Feb 2021: −0.0%Mar 2021: 5.1%Apr 2021: 5.7%May 2021: −1.8%Jun 2021: 1.3%Jul 2021: 8.6%Aug 2021: 1.4%Sep 2021: −1.6%Oct 2021: 4.5%Nov 2021: 4.7%Dec 2021: 4.8%Jan 2022: 3.1%Feb 2022: 0.4%Mar 2022: 11.2%Apr 2022: −3.8%May 2022: −1.3%Jun 2022: 1.2%Jul 2022: 1.3%Aug 2022: 1.5%Sep 2022: 3.0%Oct 2022: 1.8%Nov 2022: 0.2%Dec 2022: −0.4%Jan 2023: 2.2%Feb 2023: −0.6%Mar 2023: 4.5%Apr 2023: −1.2%May 2023: 3.5%Jun 2023: −0.6%Jul 2023: 6.9%Aug 2023: 1.6%Sep 2023: −0.1%Oct 2023: 4.9%Nov 2023: 3.4%Dec 2023: −2.1%Jan 2024: 4.4%Feb 2024: 1.6%Mar 2024: 2.2%Apr 2024: −2.2%May 2024: 4.8%Jun 2024: 0.7%Jul 2024: 0.8%Aug 2024: 1.1%Sep 2024: −0.1%Oct 2024: 2.9%Nov 2024: 2.5%Dec 2024: 3.0%Jan 2025: −4.6%Feb 2025: 2.1%Mar 2025: 7.6%Apr 2025: −6.3%May 2025: −6.2%Jun 2025: −0.5%Jul 2025: 4.0%Aug 2025: 0.0%Sep 2025: −1.5%Oct 2025: 2.2%Nov 2025: 3.1%Dec 2025: 2.8%Jan 2026: 4.8%Feb 2026: 2.5%Mar 2026: 4.0%Apr 2026: −11.9%May 2026: 4.6%Jun 2026: 1.0%Jul 2026: −1.5%Aug 2026: 8.0%Sep 2026: 5.6%20062008201020122014201620182020202220242026May 2009 −45%Jan 2012 −23%Jun 2020 −20%Dec 2008 −17%Crash flag on: the Nifty 500 was below its level two years earlierCrash flag on: the Nifty 500 was below its level two years earlierCrash flag on: the Nifty 500 was below its level two years earlierCrash flag on: the Nifty 500 was below its level two years earlierCrash flag on: the Nifty 500 was below its level two years earlierCrash flag on: the Nifty 500 was below its level two years earlierCrash flag on: the Nifty 500 was below its level two years earlierCrash flag on: the Nifty 500 was below its level two years earlierCrash flag on: the Nifty 500 was below its level two years earlier−40−20020Dec 2004: −0.3%Jan 2005: 7.5%Feb 2005: 3.5%Mar 2005: 6.4%Apr 2005: 4.0%May 2005: −2.2%Jun 2005: 1.0%Jul 2005: 4.3%Aug 2005: 9.0%Sep 2005: −3.3%Oct 2005: −0.5%Nov 2005: 5.5%Dec 2005: 7.9%Jan 2006: 8.8%Feb 2006: −1.6%Mar 2006: 10.2%Apr 2006: 4.2%May 2006: −5.7%Jun 2006: −2.0%Jul 2006: 1.8%Aug 2006: −3.9%Sep 2006: −0.5%Oct 2006: 5.7%Nov 2006: 8.9%Dec 2006: 1.4%Jan 2007: 1.8%Feb 2007: 0.2%Mar 2007: 3.5%Apr 2007: 1.9%May 2007: 5.1%Jun 2007: 4.2%Jul 2007: 3.5%Aug 2007: 3.0%Sep 2007: 7.6%Oct 2007: 23.1%Nov 2007: 4.3%Dec 2007: −6.1%Jan 2008: 0.4%Feb 2008: −5.8%Mar 2008: −4.5%Apr 2008: −3.5%May 2008: 3.8%Jun 2008: −0.9%Jul 2008: 3.7%Aug 2008: −7.7%Sep 2008: 3.7%Oct 2008: 6.3%Nov 2008: 6.3% (flag on)Dec 2008: −17.0% (flag on)May 2009: −45.2% (flag on)Jun 2009: 1.8%Jul 2009: 3.2% (flag on)Aug 2009: −10.1%Sep 2009: 1.3%Oct 2009: 7.8%Nov 2009: 4.0% (flag on)Dec 2009: −1.4% (flag on)Jan 2010: −1.6% (flag on)Feb 2010: 3.6% (flag on)Mar 2010: 8.1% (flag on)Apr 2010: 3.6%May 2010: 3.2%Jun 2010: 0.0%Jul 2010: 3.4%Aug 2010: 6.2%Sep 2010: 1.9%Oct 2010: 3.9%Nov 2010: 6.2%Dec 2010: −4.9%Jan 2011: 5.7%Feb 2011: 4.4%Mar 2011: 2.7%Apr 2011: 0.3%May 2011: 7.9%Jun 2011: 4.7%Jul 2011: 6.8%Aug 2011: 13.1%Sep 2011: 0.2%Oct 2011: −2.0% (flag on)Nov 2011: 9.5%Dec 2011: 5.9% (flag on)Jan 2012: −23.4% (flag on)Feb 2012: −4.9%Mar 2012: 9.1%Apr 2012: 3.7% (flag on)May 2012: 8.5% (flag on)Jun 2012: −4.6% (flag on)Jul 2012: 3.4% (flag on)Aug 2012: 7.0% (flag on)Sep 2012: −9.4% (flag on)Oct 2012: 7.0% (flag on)Nov 2012: 2.6% (flag on)Dec 2012: −1.0%Jan 2013: 2.9% (flag on)Feb 2013: 5.9%Mar 2013: 8.1%Apr 2013: −5.1% (flag on)May 2013: 10.6%Jun 2013: 11.3%Jul 2013: 11.6%Aug 2013: −4.1%Sep 2013: −4.7%Oct 2013: −12.6%Nov 2013: 2.5%Dec 2013: −0.1%Jan 2014: 8.6%Feb 2014: 7.0%Mar 2014: −10.0%Apr 2014: −2.7%May 2014: −10.5%Jun 2014: 6.2%Jul 2014: 1.7%Aug 2014: 5.7%Sep 2014: 9.6%Oct 2014: 1.8%Nov 2014: 5.9%Dec 2014: 5.0%Jan 2015: 5.0%Feb 2015: 2.0%Mar 2015: 10.6%Apr 2015: −7.3%May 2015: 5.1%Jun 2015: 4.8%Jul 2015: 8.7%Aug 2015: 2.4%Sep 2015: 0.3%Oct 2015: −5.8%Nov 2015: 2.8%Dec 2015: 2.3%Jan 2016: 2.4%Feb 2016: −5.8%Mar 2016: 3.2%Apr 2016: −1.1%May 2016: 5.6%Jun 2016: 0.4%Jul 2016: 0.9%Aug 2016: 1.8%Sep 2016: −0.5%Oct 2016: 3.7%Nov 2016: −4.8%Dec 2016: −1.6%Jan 2017: 3.2%Feb 2017: 1.0%Mar 2017: 0.2%Apr 2017: 2.1%May 2017: 5.2%Jun 2017: 5.5%Jul 2017: 1.6%Aug 2017: 9.5%Sep 2017: 3.2%Oct 2017: 5.1%Nov 2017: 0.2%Dec 2017: −4.0%Jan 2018: 2.4%Feb 2018: 3.4%Mar 2018: 5.5%Apr 2018: 11.1%May 2018: 2.9%Jun 2018: 3.4%Jul 2018: 0.9%Aug 2018: 4.4%Sep 2018: 6.1%Oct 2018: −1.9%Nov 2018: −0.6%Dec 2018: −4.6%Jan 2019: 7.2%Feb 2019: −0.8%Mar 2019: −5.2%Apr 2019: 5.1%May 2019: 3.1%Jun 2019: 11.1%Jul 2019: 7.2%Aug 2019: 5.8%Sep 2019: 1.9%Oct 2019: 2.4%Nov 2019: −5.1%Dec 2019: 5.1%Jan 2020: 4.4%Feb 2020: 11.6%Mar 2020: 10.0%Apr 2020: −10.5% (flag on)May 2020: 8.3% (flag on)Jun 2020: −19.6% (flag on)Jul 2020: 9.7% (flag on)Aug 2020: −10.8% (flag on)Sep 2020: 9.9% (flag on)Oct 2020: −0.2%Nov 2020: −8.9%Dec 2020: −0.6%Jan 2021: 0.9%Feb 2021: −0.0%Mar 2021: 5.1%Apr 2021: 5.7%May 2021: −1.8%Jun 2021: 1.3%Jul 2021: 8.6%Aug 2021: 1.4%Sep 2021: −1.6%Oct 2021: 4.5%Nov 2021: 4.7%Dec 2021: 4.8%Jan 2022: 3.1%Feb 2022: 0.4%Mar 2022: 11.2%Apr 2022: −3.8%May 2022: −1.3%Jun 2022: 1.2%Jul 2022: 1.3%Aug 2022: 1.5%Sep 2022: 3.0%Oct 2022: 1.8%Nov 2022: 0.2%Dec 2022: −0.4%Jan 2023: 2.2%Feb 2023: −0.6%Mar 2023: 4.5%Apr 2023: −1.2%May 2023: 3.5%Jun 2023: −0.6%Jul 2023: 6.9%Aug 2023: 1.6%Sep 2023: −0.1%Oct 2023: 4.9%Nov 2023: 3.4%Dec 2023: −2.1%Jan 2024: 4.4%Feb 2024: 1.6%Mar 2024: 2.2%Apr 2024: −2.2%May 2024: 4.8%Jun 2024: 0.7%Jul 2024: 0.8%Aug 2024: 1.1%Sep 2024: −0.1%Oct 2024: 2.9%Nov 2024: 2.5%Dec 2024: 3.0%Jan 2025: −4.6%Feb 2025: 2.1%Mar 2025: 7.6%Apr 2025: −6.3%May 2025: −6.2%Jun 2025: −0.5%Jul 2025: 4.0%Aug 2025: 0.0%Sep 2025: −1.5%Oct 2025: 2.2%Nov 2025: 3.1%Dec 2025: 2.8%Jan 2026: 4.8%Feb 2026: 2.5%Mar 2026: 4.0%Apr 2026: −11.9%May 2026: 4.6%Jun 2026: 1.0%Jul 2026: −1.5%Aug 2026: 8.0%Sep 2026: 5.6%20062008201020122014201620182020202220242026May 2009 −45%Jan 2012 −23%Jun 2020 −20%Dec 2008 −17%Crash flag on: the Nifty 500 was below its level two years earlierCrash flag on: the Nifty 500 was below its level two years earlierCrash flag on: the Nifty 500 was below its level two years earlierCrash flag on: the Nifty 500 was below its level two years earlierCrash flag on: the Nifty 500 was below its level two years earlierCrash flag on: the Nifty 500 was below its level two years earlierCrash flag on: the Nifty 500 was below its level two years earlierCrash flag on: the Nifty 500 was below its level two years earlierCrash flag on: the Nifty 500 was below its level two years earlier−40−20020Dec 2004: −0.3%Jan 2005: 7.5%Feb 2005: 3.5%Mar 2005: 6.4%Apr 2005: 4.0%May 2005: −2.2%Jun 2005: 1.0%Jul 2005: 4.3%Aug 2005: 9.0%Sep 2005: −3.3%Oct 2005: −0.5%Nov 2005: 5.5%Dec 2005: 7.9%Jan 2006: 8.8%Feb 2006: −1.6%Mar 2006: 10.2%Apr 2006: 4.2%May 2006: −5.7%Jun 2006: −2.0%Jul 2006: 1.8%Aug 2006: −3.9%Sep 2006: −0.5%Oct 2006: 5.7%Nov 2006: 8.9%Dec 2006: 1.4%Jan 2007: 1.8%Feb 2007: 0.2%Mar 2007: 3.5%Apr 2007: 1.9%May 2007: 5.1%Jun 2007: 4.2%Jul 2007: 3.5%Aug 2007: 3.0%Sep 2007: 7.6%Oct 2007: 23.1%Nov 2007: 4.3%Dec 2007: −6.1%Jan 2008: 0.4%Feb 2008: −5.8%Mar 2008: −4.5%Apr 2008: −3.5%May 2008: 3.8%Jun 2008: −0.9%Jul 2008: 3.7%Aug 2008: −7.7%Sep 2008: 3.7%Oct 2008: 6.3%Nov 2008: 6.3% (flag on)Dec 2008: −17.0% (flag on)May 2009: −45.2% (flag on)Jun 2009: 1.8%Jul 2009: 3.2% (flag on)Aug 2009: −10.1%Sep 2009: 1.3%Oct 2009: 7.8%Nov 2009: 4.0% (flag on)Dec 2009: −1.4% (flag on)Jan 2010: −1.6% (flag on)Feb 2010: 3.6% (flag on)Mar 2010: 8.1% (flag on)Apr 2010: 3.6%May 2010: 3.2%Jun 2010: 0.0%Jul 2010: 3.4%Aug 2010: 6.2%Sep 2010: 1.9%Oct 2010: 3.9%Nov 2010: 6.2%Dec 2010: −4.9%Jan 2011: 5.7%Feb 2011: 4.4%Mar 2011: 2.7%Apr 2011: 0.3%May 2011: 7.9%Jun 2011: 4.7%Jul 2011: 6.8%Aug 2011: 13.1%Sep 2011: 0.2%Oct 2011: −2.0% (flag on)Nov 2011: 9.5%Dec 2011: 5.9% (flag on)Jan 2012: −23.4% (flag on)Feb 2012: −4.9%Mar 2012: 9.1%Apr 2012: 3.7% (flag on)May 2012: 8.5% (flag on)Jun 2012: −4.6% (flag on)Jul 2012: 3.4% (flag on)Aug 2012: 7.0% (flag on)Sep 2012: −9.4% (flag on)Oct 2012: 7.0% (flag on)Nov 2012: 2.6% (flag on)Dec 2012: −1.0%Jan 2013: 2.9% (flag on)Feb 2013: 5.9%Mar 2013: 8.1%Apr 2013: −5.1% (flag on)May 2013: 10.6%Jun 2013: 11.3%Jul 2013: 11.6%Aug 2013: −4.1%Sep 2013: −4.7%Oct 2013: −12.6%Nov 2013: 2.5%Dec 2013: −0.1%Jan 2014: 8.6%Feb 2014: 7.0%Mar 2014: −10.0%Apr 2014: −2.7%May 2014: −10.5%Jun 2014: 6.2%Jul 2014: 1.7%Aug 2014: 5.7%Sep 2014: 9.6%Oct 2014: 1.8%Nov 2014: 5.9%Dec 2014: 5.0%Jan 2015: 5.0%Feb 2015: 2.0%Mar 2015: 10.6%Apr 2015: −7.3%May 2015: 5.1%Jun 2015: 4.8%Jul 2015: 8.7%Aug 2015: 2.4%Sep 2015: 0.3%Oct 2015: −5.8%Nov 2015: 2.8%Dec 2015: 2.3%Jan 2016: 2.4%Feb 2016: −5.8%Mar 2016: 3.2%Apr 2016: −1.1%May 2016: 5.6%Jun 2016: 0.4%Jul 2016: 0.9%Aug 2016: 1.8%Sep 2016: −0.5%Oct 2016: 3.7%Nov 2016: −4.8%Dec 2016: −1.6%Jan 2017: 3.2%Feb 2017: 1.0%Mar 2017: 0.2%Apr 2017: 2.1%May 2017: 5.2%Jun 2017: 5.5%Jul 2017: 1.6%Aug 2017: 9.5%Sep 2017: 3.2%Oct 2017: 5.1%Nov 2017: 0.2%Dec 2017: −4.0%Jan 2018: 2.4%Feb 2018: 3.4%Mar 2018: 5.5%Apr 2018: 11.1%May 2018: 2.9%Jun 2018: 3.4%Jul 2018: 0.9%Aug 2018: 4.4%Sep 2018: 6.1%Oct 2018: −1.9%Nov 2018: −0.6%Dec 2018: −4.6%Jan 2019: 7.2%Feb 2019: −0.8%Mar 2019: −5.2%Apr 2019: 5.1%May 2019: 3.1%Jun 2019: 11.1%Jul 2019: 7.2%Aug 2019: 5.8%Sep 2019: 1.9%Oct 2019: 2.4%Nov 2019: −5.1%Dec 2019: 5.1%Jan 2020: 4.4%Feb 2020: 11.6%Mar 2020: 10.0%Apr 2020: −10.5% (flag on)May 2020: 8.3% (flag on)Jun 2020: −19.6% (flag on)Jul 2020: 9.7% (flag on)Aug 2020: −10.8% (flag on)Sep 2020: 9.9% (flag on)Oct 2020: −0.2%Nov 2020: −8.9%Dec 2020: −0.6%Jan 2021: 0.9%Feb 2021: −0.0%Mar 2021: 5.1%Apr 2021: 5.7%May 2021: −1.8%Jun 2021: 1.3%Jul 2021: 8.6%Aug 2021: 1.4%Sep 2021: −1.6%Oct 2021: 4.5%Nov 2021: 4.7%Dec 2021: 4.8%Jan 2022: 3.1%Feb 2022: 0.4%Mar 2022: 11.2%Apr 2022: −3.8%May 2022: −1.3%Jun 2022: 1.2%Jul 2022: 1.3%Aug 2022: 1.5%Sep 2022: 3.0%Oct 2022: 1.8%Nov 2022: 0.2%Dec 2022: −0.4%Jan 2023: 2.2%Feb 2023: −0.6%Mar 2023: 4.5%Apr 2023: −1.2%May 2023: 3.5%Jun 2023: −0.6%Jul 2023: 6.9%Aug 2023: 1.6%Sep 2023: −0.1%Oct 2023: 4.9%Nov 2023: 3.4%Dec 2023: −2.1%Jan 2024: 4.4%Feb 2024: 1.6%Mar 2024: 2.2%Apr 2024: −2.2%May 2024: 4.8%Jun 2024: 0.7%Jul 2024: 0.8%Aug 2024: 1.1%Sep 2024: −0.1%Oct 2024: 2.9%Nov 2024: 2.5%Dec 2024: 3.0%Jan 2025: −4.6%Feb 2025: 2.1%Mar 2025: 7.6%Apr 2025: −6.3%May 2025: −6.2%Jun 2025: −0.5%Jul 2025: 4.0%Aug 2025: 0.0%Sep 2025: −1.5%Oct 2025: 2.2%Nov 2025: 3.1%Dec 2025: 2.8%Jan 2026: 4.8%Feb 2026: 2.5%Mar 2026: 4.0%Apr 2026: −11.9%May 2026: 4.6%Jun 2026: 1.0%Jul 2026: −1.5%Aug 2026: 8.0%Sep 2026: 5.6%20052010201520202025May 2009 −45%Jan 2012 −23%Jun 2020 −20%Dec 2008 −17%
The ten worst months, in a table
The ten worst months for the blend's long-short, and whether the flag was on going into them.
MonthLong-short returnFlag
May 2009−45.2%On
Jan 2012−23.4%On
Jun 2020−19.6%On
Dec 2008−17.0%On
Oct 2013−12.6%Off
Apr 2026−11.9%Off
Aug 2020−10.8%On
Apr 2020−10.5%On
May 2014−10.5%Off
Aug 2009−10.1%Off

The flag was on in 28 months since 2004. In those months the long-short averaged −2.01%; in the rest, +2.29%. The difference narrowly misses the significance bar we set in advance.

Timing luck in Nifty200 Momentum 30

NSE's Nifty200 Momentum 30 picks 30 stocks twice a year, in June and December. We rebuilt it from NSE's published method, then ran the same rules on the five other half-yearly calendars. Same stocks, same rules, different months: annual returns ranged from 13.4% to 21.7% since Jun 2005, a spread of 8.3 points a year. In 2009 the best and worst calendars differed by 70 points.

The replica on each half-yearly calendar, price returns, before costs.
Rebalanced inReturn a yearVolatilitySharpeWorst fallMore
Jan and Jul17.6%27.3%0.74−70%
Feb and Aug20.1%28.1%0.80−72%
Mar and Sep21.7%28.3%0.85−73%
Apr and Oct20.9%27.0%0.85−74%
May and Nov18.1%26.7%0.77−76%
Jun and Dec (NSE's)13.4%26.9%0.61−77%

Each year, how far apart the six calendars ended

Calendar-year return of the replica on each half-yearly rebalance calendar, price returns before costs. Full years only.

How to read it. Each row is a year and each dot one calendar; the line spans the best and worst. The longer the line, the more the choice of months mattered that year. NSE's own calendar is the bold dot.

The other five calendarsJune and December (NSE's)

Each year, how far apart the six calendars ended. Dot plot of 20 items. Jan and Jul: highest 2007 at 95%, lowest 2008 at −68%.

The same returns as a table
Calendar-year returns of the replica by rebalance calendar (months), %. Full years only.
Jan, JulFeb, AugMar, SepApr, OctMay, NovJun, Dec
2006 +32+46+40+38+32+36
2007 +95+122+116+94+99+83
2008 −68−70−70−71−75−75
2009 +93+132+112+114+76+63
2010 +12+16+9+4+5+13
2011 −26−32−23−18−19−25
2012 +44+43+38+41+42+43
2013 −9−3−2+9−3−6
2014 +68+83+85+86+71+47
2015 +6+17+8+11+1+1
2016 −5−7+5+1+40
2017 +55+62+65+73+77+55
2018 −18−14−14−17−13−8
2019 +9+6+7+3+2+1
2020 +30+35+50+38+41+42
2021 +68+51+55+61+69+66
2022 −8−30−5+1−6
2023 +45+58+68+64+65+54
2024 +30+34+33+39+43+23
2025 +10+1+2+10+1−12

The replica: NSE's calendar against all six combined

Growth of 1, monthly, log scale, price returns before costs.

How to read it. The heavier line is the replica on NSE's own months; the grey line splits money across all six calendars, which removes the luck of the draw without changing the expected return.

June and December (NSE's calendar)Split across all six calendars

Loading chart…

Source: NSE bhavcopy (main board), prices adjusted for corporate actions; liquid point-in-time universe; NSE Indices for Nifty200 Momentum 30.
Method JSON

How close is the replica? Its monthly returns on NSE's calendar correlate 0.91 with the real index over 257 months, above the 0.90 we required before naming the index. Its level is lower, though. It uses price returns without dividends. We have no free-float market values, so weights follow the momentum score alone, with NSE's 5% cap. Membership of the Nifty 200 is approximated by the 200 most-traded stocks. The spread between calendars is the finding; the exact returns are the replica's, not the index's. That NSE's calendar came out lowest is itself luck.

The tests

Written down before any result was computed.

  1. MO-H1 Has stock momentum paid in India? Passed Yes. Stocks in the top fifth of the blend beat the bottom fifth by 1.8% a month on average since Nov 2004 (Newey-West t 4.7), in both halves of the sample. Held alone and after trading costs, the top fifth returned 26.0% a year against 13.7% for an equal-weighted basket of every liquid stock; deflated Sharpe 0.98 with 16 trials.
    p-value, top fifth minus bottom fifth (Newey-West) bar 0.017 10.10.010.0010.0001 below 0.0001

    p-values on a log scale; smaller is stronger evidence, to the right. Shaded: the side that passes the bar set in advance.

    • Positive in the first half: met
    • Positive in the second half: met
  2. MO-H2 Does blending the flavours beat the typical single flavour? Failed Half. The blend's Sharpe ratio (1.01) beat the typical flavour's (0.93), but its worst fall (-59%) was deeper than the typical flavour's (-55%), so it fails the bar set in advance. Residual momentum on its own had the best Sharpe and the shallowest fall.
    Sharpe ratio of the blend typical flavour 0.93 1.01
    Worst fall of the blend, % typical flavour −55% −59%
  3. MO-H3 Does momentum crash after the market has fallen for two years? Failed It points that way but misses the bar. In the 28 months after the Nifty 500's two-year return turned negative, the long-short return averaged −2.01% a month, against +2.29% otherwise (p = 0.03; the bar was 0.017). Of the ten worst months, 6 were flagged, including the worst four.
    p-value, flagged months against the rest (Welch) bar 0.017 10.10.010.0010.0001 0.035

    p-values on a log scale; smaller is stronger evidence, to the right. Shaded: the side that passes the bar set in advance.

  4. MO-H5 Does rotating into the sectors with the strongest blended momentum beat holding them all? Failed No. 16.0% a year against 14.6% for an equal-weighted basket of 13 non-overlapping sectors since Feb 2005, after costs; ahead in 49% of months; deflated Sharpe 0.57 with 3 sector rules counted.
    Deflated Sharpe ratio against the equal-weight basket, 3 trials needed 0.95 0.57
    • Ahead in the first half: met
    • Ahead in the second half: not met
  5. MO-H4 Which flavours bring the most variety? Measured The least correlated pair is residual (stock-specific) 12-1 and nearness to 52-week high (0.36), as the literature suggests. Volatility-adjusted and plain 12-1 momentum are near-duplicates (0.97).

Tests, samples and pass bars were fixed in the pre-registered specification before any result was computed. A pass needs every condition written there, not only a small p-value.

How it is built

Every month-end, every liquid NSE main-board stock, using only data up to that day.

Universe. The same point-in-time universe as our breadth measures: main-board stocks with a median traded value of at least ₹1 crore a day (in today's rupees) and trades on 45 of the last 60 sessions, with at least 273 sessions of history. Stocks that later delisted are included while they traded, so there is no survivorship bias. Prices are bhavcopy closes adjusted for splits, bonuses and other corporate actions; dividends are not added.

The six flavours. 12-1 and 6-1 month returns (Jegadeesh and Titman, 1993); 12-1 divided by volatility (in the spirit of Barroso and Santa-Clara, 2015); residual momentum, the stock's own return after taking out the market's, over the same months (Blitz, Huij and Martens, 2011); nearness to the 52-week high (George and Hwang, 2004); and NSE's own normalised score. Industry momentum needs a point-in-time industry map, which we do not have. Earnings momentum waits for company financials.

Portfolios. Fifths by score, equally weighted, held one month. A stock that stops trading earns nothing after its last trade. The long-only version pays 0.25% each way on what it trades.

The rules across every market

The 10-month and 200-day rules were tested on seven markets. Here they are replayed on all 116 investable markets in the section, each over its own full history, after costs and tax. After tax the 10-month rule kept more than buying and holding on 32 of 116 and the 200-day rule on 27; the typical gap was -1.4 and -1.9 points a year. Their worst falls were shallower on 116 and 114. This is a description, not a test: the markets overlap, many histories are back-calculated, and with this many tries some markets would favour the rules by luck alone.

After tax, the 10-month rule mostly trailed buying and holding

Rule minus buy and hold, percentage points a year after tax, full history of each market. One dot per market; colour is the family.

How to read it. Right of zero the rule kept more after tax. Each family's best and worst are named; hover any dot for its name.

−10−50+5+10After tax: rule minus buy and hold, points a year →BroadNifty Midcap 150: −5.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty MidSmallcap 400: −3.9 points a year, from 2006Nifty 500: −3.1 points a year, from 1996Nifty MidSmallcap400 50:50: −3.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty Midcap 50: −2.9 points a year, from 2005Nifty Midcap 100: −2.9 points a year, from 2004Nifty500 LargeMidSmall Equal-Cap Weighted: −2.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty LargeMidcap 250: −1.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty 100: −1.4 points a year, from 2004Nifty500 Multicap 50:25:25: −1.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty Next 50: −1.1 points a year, from 2003Nifty 50: −0.7 points a year, from 2000Nifty 200: −0.2 points a year, from 2005Nifty Smallcap 250: +0.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty Smallcap 100: +1.0 points a year, from 2005Nifty Smallcap 50: +1.5 points a year, from 2006Nifty Smallcap 500: +1.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty Microcap 250: +3.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty Midcap 150Nifty Microcap 250SectorsNifty Chemicals: −4.9 points a year, from 2006Nifty Financial Services: −4.7 points a year, from 2005Nifty Bank: −4.6 points a year, from 2001Nifty Financial Services 25/50: −4.4 points a year, from 2005Nifty REITs & Realty: −4.2 points a year, from 2022Nifty500 Healthcare: −3.9 points a year, from 2006Nifty Pharma: −3.7 points a year, from 2002Nifty MidSmall Healthcare: −3.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty Private Bank: −3.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty Financial Services Ex-Bank: −3.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty Oil & Gas: −2.9 points a year, from 2006Nifty Consumer Durables: −2.9 points a year, from 2006Nifty Healthcare: −2.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty Auto: −1.2 points a year, from 2005Nifty FMCG: −0.9 points a year, from 1997Nifty MidSmall Financial Services: −0.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty MidSmall IT & Telecom: −0.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty Cement: +0.5 points a year, from 2006Nifty IT: +0.5 points a year, from 2000Nifty PSU Bank: +1.2 points a year, from 2005Nifty Metal: +5.4 points a year, from 2005Nifty Media: +6.9 points a year, from 2007Nifty Realty: +8.0 points a year, from 2008ChemicalsRealtyThemesNifty Capital Markets: −11.1 points a year, from 2020Nifty India Defence: −9.8 points a year, from 2019Nifty India Consumption: −5.1 points a year, from 2007Nifty100 ESG: −4.1 points a year, from 2012Nifty100 Enhanced ESG: −4.1 points a year, from 2012Nifty Rural: −3.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty Energy: −3.7 points a year, from 2002Nifty Midcap Liquid 15: −3.7 points a year, from 2010Nifty Non-Cyclical Consumer: −3.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty Shariah 25: −2.9 points a year, from 2010Nifty MidSmall India Consumption: −2.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty Conglomerate 50: −2.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty100 ESG Sector Leaders: −2.2 points a year, from 2015Nifty India New Age Consumption: −2.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Multicap India Manufacturing 50:30:20: −1.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty Core Housing: −1.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty MNC: −1.4 points a year, from 1996Nifty India Select 5 Corporate Groups (MAATR): −0.7 points a year, from 2006Nifty Mobility: −0.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty India Tourism: −0.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty IPO: −0.5 points a year, from 2018Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Aditya Birla Group: −0.4 points a year, from 2006Nifty REITs & InvITs: −0.1 points a year, from 2020Nifty100 Liquid 15: −0.0 points a year, from 2014Nifty PSE: +0.0 points a year, from 2001Nifty Transportation & Logistics: +0.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty Housing: +0.5 points a year, from 2006Nifty Commodities: +0.5 points a year, from 2005Nifty500 Shariah: +0.5 points a year, from 2008Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Tata Group 25% Cap: +0.5 points a year, from 2006Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Tata Group: +0.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Mahindra Group: +0.7 points a year, from 2006Nifty Services Sector: +0.7 points a year, from 2000Nifty EV & New Age Automotive: +0.9 points a year, from 2019Nifty50 Shariah: +1.7 points a year, from 2008Nifty Infrastructure: +1.7 points a year, from 2005Nifty500 Multicap Infrastructure 50:30:20: +2.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty CPSE: +3.6 points a year, from 2010Nifty SME Emerge: +4.8 points a year, from 2017Nifty Waves: +6.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty India Railways PSU: +10.4 points a year, from 2022Capital MarketsRailways PSUStrategiesNifty Smallcap250 Momentum Quality 100: −5.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty MidSmallcap400 Momentum Quality 100: −5.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty Midcap150 Momentum 50: −4.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty Alpha 50: −3.4 points a year, from 2004Nifty Smallcap250 Quality 50: −3.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty Low Volatility 50: −3.1 points a year, from 2004Nifty500 Momentum 50: −3.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty100 Alpha 30: −2.9 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Multifactor MQVLv 50: −2.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty Growth Sectors 15: −2.2 points a year, from 2010Nifty100 Low Volatility 30: −2.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty50 Value 20: −2.1 points a year, from 2010Nifty Top 15 Equal Weight: −2.0 points a year, from 2007Nifty Alpha Quality Value Low-Volatility 30: −2.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty200 Alpha 30: −1.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty100 Equal Weight: −1.7 points a year, from 2004Nifty Alpha Quality Low-Volatility 30: −1.7 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Low Volatility 50: −1.5 points a year, from 2006Nifty50 Equal Weight: −1.4 points a year, from 1996Nifty Midcap150 Quality 50: −1.4 points a year, from 2006Nifty200 Momentum 30: −1.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty Top 20 Equal Weight: −1.0 points a year, from 2007Nifty200 Quality 30: −1.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty Alpha Low-Volatility 30: −0.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty Top 10 Equal Weight: −0.8 points a year, from 2007Nifty Quality Low-Volatility 30: −0.5 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Quality 50: −0.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Multicap Momentum Quality 50: −0.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty High Beta 50: +0.6 points a year, from 2004Nifty500 Equal Weight: +0.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty200 Value 30: +1.7 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Value 50: +2.4 points a year, from 2006Smallcap250 Momentum Quality 100Nifty500 Value 50Other assetsGold: −3.3 points a year, from 2001G-sec 5-year: −0.2 points a year, from 2002GoldG-sec 5-year−10−50+5+10After tax: rule minus buy and hold, points a year →BroadNifty Midcap 150: −5.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty MidSmallcap 400: −3.9 points a year, from 2006Nifty 500: −3.1 points a year, from 1996Nifty MidSmallcap400 50:50: −3.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty Midcap 50: −2.9 points a year, from 2005Nifty Midcap 100: −2.9 points a year, from 2004Nifty500 LargeMidSmall Equal-Cap Weighted: −2.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty LargeMidcap 250: −1.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty 100: −1.4 points a year, from 2004Nifty500 Multicap 50:25:25: −1.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty Next 50: −1.1 points a year, from 2003Nifty 50: −0.7 points a year, from 2000Nifty 200: −0.2 points a year, from 2005Nifty Smallcap 250: +0.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty Smallcap 100: +1.0 points a year, from 2005Nifty Smallcap 50: +1.5 points a year, from 2006Nifty Smallcap 500: +1.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty Microcap 250: +3.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty Midcap 150Nifty Microcap 250SectorsNifty Chemicals: −4.9 points a year, from 2006Nifty Financial Services: −4.7 points a year, from 2005Nifty Bank: −4.6 points a year, from 2001Nifty Financial Services 25/50: −4.4 points a year, from 2005Nifty REITs & Realty: −4.2 points a year, from 2022Nifty500 Healthcare: −3.9 points a year, from 2006Nifty Pharma: −3.7 points a year, from 2002Nifty MidSmall Healthcare: −3.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty Private Bank: −3.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty Financial Services Ex-Bank: −3.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty Oil & Gas: −2.9 points a year, from 2006Nifty Consumer Durables: −2.9 points a year, from 2006Nifty Healthcare: −2.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty Auto: −1.2 points a year, from 2005Nifty FMCG: −0.9 points a year, from 1997Nifty MidSmall Financial Services: −0.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty MidSmall IT & Telecom: −0.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty Cement: +0.5 points a year, from 2006Nifty IT: +0.5 points a year, from 2000Nifty PSU Bank: +1.2 points a year, from 2005Nifty Metal: +5.4 points a year, from 2005Nifty Media: +6.9 points a year, from 2007Nifty Realty: +8.0 points a year, from 2008ChemicalsRealtyThemesNifty Capital Markets: −11.1 points a year, from 2020Nifty India Defence: −9.8 points a year, from 2019Nifty India Consumption: −5.1 points a year, from 2007Nifty100 ESG: −4.1 points a year, from 2012Nifty100 Enhanced ESG: −4.1 points a year, from 2012Nifty Rural: −3.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty Energy: −3.7 points a year, from 2002Nifty Midcap Liquid 15: −3.7 points a year, from 2010Nifty Non-Cyclical Consumer: −3.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty Shariah 25: −2.9 points a year, from 2010Nifty MidSmall India Consumption: −2.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty Conglomerate 50: −2.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty100 ESG Sector Leaders: −2.2 points a year, from 2015Nifty India New Age Consumption: −2.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Multicap India Manufacturing 50:30:20: −1.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty Core Housing: −1.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty MNC: −1.4 points a year, from 1996Nifty India Select 5 Corporate Groups (MAATR): −0.7 points a year, from 2006Nifty Mobility: −0.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty India Tourism: −0.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty IPO: −0.5 points a year, from 2018Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Aditya Birla Group: −0.4 points a year, from 2006Nifty REITs & InvITs: −0.1 points a year, from 2020Nifty100 Liquid 15: −0.0 points a year, from 2014Nifty PSE: +0.0 points a year, from 2001Nifty Transportation & Logistics: +0.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty Housing: +0.5 points a year, from 2006Nifty Commodities: +0.5 points a year, from 2005Nifty500 Shariah: +0.5 points a year, from 2008Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Tata Group 25% Cap: +0.5 points a year, from 2006Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Tata Group: +0.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Mahindra Group: +0.7 points a year, from 2006Nifty Services Sector: +0.7 points a year, from 2000Nifty EV & New Age Automotive: +0.9 points a year, from 2019Nifty50 Shariah: +1.7 points a year, from 2008Nifty Infrastructure: +1.7 points a year, from 2005Nifty500 Multicap Infrastructure 50:30:20: +2.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty CPSE: +3.6 points a year, from 2010Nifty SME Emerge: +4.8 points a year, from 2017Nifty Waves: +6.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty India Railways PSU: +10.4 points a year, from 2022Capital MarketsRailways PSUStrategiesNifty Smallcap250 Momentum Quality 100: −5.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty MidSmallcap400 Momentum Quality 100: −5.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty Midcap150 Momentum 50: −4.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty Alpha 50: −3.4 points a year, from 2004Nifty Smallcap250 Quality 50: −3.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty Low Volatility 50: −3.1 points a year, from 2004Nifty500 Momentum 50: −3.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty100 Alpha 30: −2.9 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Multifactor MQVLv 50: −2.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty Growth Sectors 15: −2.2 points a year, from 2010Nifty100 Low Volatility 30: −2.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty50 Value 20: −2.1 points a year, from 2010Nifty Top 15 Equal Weight: −2.0 points a year, from 2007Nifty Alpha Quality Value Low-Volatility 30: −2.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty200 Alpha 30: −1.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty100 Equal Weight: −1.7 points a year, from 2004Nifty Alpha Quality Low-Volatility 30: −1.7 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Low Volatility 50: −1.5 points a year, from 2006Nifty50 Equal Weight: −1.4 points a year, from 1996Nifty Midcap150 Quality 50: −1.4 points a year, from 2006Nifty200 Momentum 30: −1.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty Top 20 Equal Weight: −1.0 points a year, from 2007Nifty200 Quality 30: −1.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty Alpha Low-Volatility 30: −0.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty Top 10 Equal Weight: −0.8 points a year, from 2007Nifty Quality Low-Volatility 30: −0.5 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Quality 50: −0.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Multicap Momentum Quality 50: −0.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty High Beta 50: +0.6 points a year, from 2004Nifty500 Equal Weight: +0.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty200 Value 30: +1.7 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Value 50: +2.4 points a year, from 2006Smallcap250 Momentum Quality 100Nifty500 Value 50Other assetsGold: −3.3 points a year, from 2001G-sec 5-year: −0.2 points a year, from 2002GoldG-sec 5-year−100+10After tax: rule minus buy and hold, points a year →BroadNifty Midcap 150: −5.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty MidSmallcap 400: −3.9 points a year, from 2006Nifty 500: −3.1 points a year, from 1996Nifty MidSmallcap400 50:50: −3.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty Midcap 50: −2.9 points a year, from 2005Nifty Midcap 100: −2.9 points a year, from 2004Nifty500 LargeMidSmall Equal-Cap Weighted: −2.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty LargeMidcap 250: −1.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty 100: −1.4 points a year, from 2004Nifty500 Multicap 50:25:25: −1.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty Next 50: −1.1 points a year, from 2003Nifty 50: −0.7 points a year, from 2000Nifty 200: −0.2 points a year, from 2005Nifty Smallcap 250: +0.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty Smallcap 100: +1.0 points a year, from 2005Nifty Smallcap 50: +1.5 points a year, from 2006Nifty Smallcap 500: +1.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty Microcap 250: +3.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty Midcap 150Nifty Microcap 250SectorsNifty Chemicals: −4.9 points a year, from 2006Nifty Financial Services: −4.7 points a year, from 2005Nifty Bank: −4.6 points a year, from 2001Nifty Financial Services 25/50: −4.4 points a year, from 2005Nifty REITs & Realty: −4.2 points a year, from 2022Nifty500 Healthcare: −3.9 points a year, from 2006Nifty Pharma: −3.7 points a year, from 2002Nifty MidSmall Healthcare: −3.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty Private Bank: −3.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty Financial Services Ex-Bank: −3.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty Oil & Gas: −2.9 points a year, from 2006Nifty Consumer Durables: −2.9 points a year, from 2006Nifty Healthcare: −2.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty Auto: −1.2 points a year, from 2005Nifty FMCG: −0.9 points a year, from 1997Nifty MidSmall Financial Services: −0.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty MidSmall IT & Telecom: −0.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty Cement: +0.5 points a year, from 2006Nifty IT: +0.5 points a year, from 2000Nifty PSU Bank: +1.2 points a year, from 2005Nifty Metal: +5.4 points a year, from 2005Nifty Media: +6.9 points a year, from 2007Nifty Realty: +8.0 points a year, from 2008ChemicalsRealtyThemesNifty Capital Markets: −11.1 points a year, from 2020Nifty India Defence: −9.8 points a year, from 2019Nifty India Consumption: −5.1 points a year, from 2007Nifty100 ESG: −4.1 points a year, from 2012Nifty100 Enhanced ESG: −4.1 points a year, from 2012Nifty Rural: −3.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty Energy: −3.7 points a year, from 2002Nifty Midcap Liquid 15: −3.7 points a year, from 2010Nifty Non-Cyclical Consumer: −3.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty Shariah 25: −2.9 points a year, from 2010Nifty MidSmall India Consumption: −2.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty Conglomerate 50: −2.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty100 ESG Sector Leaders: −2.2 points a year, from 2015Nifty India New Age Consumption: −2.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Multicap India Manufacturing 50:30:20: −1.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty Core Housing: −1.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty MNC: −1.4 points a year, from 1996Nifty India Select 5 Corporate Groups (MAATR): −0.7 points a year, from 2006Nifty Mobility: −0.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty India Tourism: −0.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty IPO: −0.5 points a year, from 2018Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Aditya Birla Group: −0.4 points a year, from 2006Nifty REITs & InvITs: −0.1 points a year, from 2020Nifty100 Liquid 15: −0.0 points a year, from 2014Nifty PSE: +0.0 points a year, from 2001Nifty Transportation & Logistics: +0.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty Housing: +0.5 points a year, from 2006Nifty Commodities: +0.5 points a year, from 2005Nifty500 Shariah: +0.5 points a year, from 2008Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Tata Group 25% Cap: +0.5 points a year, from 2006Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Tata Group: +0.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Mahindra Group: +0.7 points a year, from 2006Nifty Services Sector: +0.7 points a year, from 2000Nifty EV & New Age Automotive: +0.9 points a year, from 2019Nifty50 Shariah: +1.7 points a year, from 2008Nifty Infrastructure: +1.7 points a year, from 2005Nifty500 Multicap Infrastructure 50:30:20: +2.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty CPSE: +3.6 points a year, from 2010Nifty SME Emerge: +4.8 points a year, from 2017Nifty Waves: +6.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty India Railways PSU: +10.4 points a year, from 2022Capital MarketsRailways PSUStrategiesNifty Smallcap250 Momentum Quality 100: −5.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty MidSmallcap400 Momentum Quality 100: −5.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty Midcap150 Momentum 50: −4.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty Alpha 50: −3.4 points a year, from 2004Nifty Smallcap250 Quality 50: −3.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty Low Volatility 50: −3.1 points a year, from 2004Nifty500 Momentum 50: −3.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty100 Alpha 30: −2.9 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Multifactor MQVLv 50: −2.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty Growth Sectors 15: −2.2 points a year, from 2010Nifty100 Low Volatility 30: −2.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty50 Value 20: −2.1 points a year, from 2010Nifty Top 15 Equal Weight: −2.0 points a year, from 2007Nifty Alpha Quality Value Low-Volatility 30: −2.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty200 Alpha 30: −1.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty100 Equal Weight: −1.7 points a year, from 2004Nifty Alpha Quality Low-Volatility 30: −1.7 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Low Volatility 50: −1.5 points a year, from 2006Nifty50 Equal Weight: −1.4 points a year, from 1996Nifty Midcap150 Quality 50: −1.4 points a year, from 2006Nifty200 Momentum 30: −1.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty Top 20 Equal Weight: −1.0 points a year, from 2007Nifty200 Quality 30: −1.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty Alpha Low-Volatility 30: −0.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty Top 10 Equal Weight: −0.8 points a year, from 2007Nifty Quality Low-Volatility 30: −0.5 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Quality 50: −0.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Multicap Momentum Quality 50: −0.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty High Beta 50: +0.6 points a year, from 2004Nifty500 Equal Weight: +0.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty200 Value 30: +1.7 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Value 50: +2.4 points a year, from 2006Smallcap250 Momentum Quality 100Nifty500 Value 50Other assetsGold: −3.3 points a year, from 2001G-sec 5-year: −0.2 points a year, from 2002GoldG-sec 5-year

After tax, the 200-day rule mostly trailed buying and holding too

Rule minus buy and hold, points a year after tax.

−10−7.5−5−2.50+2.5+5+7.5+10After tax: rule minus buy and hold, points a year →BroadNifty Midcap 100: −2.2 points a year, from 2004Nifty 100: −2.1 points a year, from 2004Nifty 500: −2.0 points a year, from 1996Nifty 200: −1.9 points a year, from 2005Nifty Next 50: −1.8 points a year, from 2003Nifty 50: −1.8 points a year, from 2000Nifty Midcap 50: −1.3 points a year, from 2005Nifty500 Multicap 50:25:25: −1.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty LargeMidcap 250: −0.7 points a year, from 2006Nifty MidSmallcap 400: −0.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty Midcap 150: +0.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 LargeMidSmall Equal-Cap Weighted: +0.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty MidSmallcap400 50:50: +0.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty Smallcap 100: +1.0 points a year, from 2005Nifty Smallcap 250: +1.4 points a year, from 2006Nifty Smallcap 500: +2.4 points a year, from 2006Nifty Smallcap 50: +2.5 points a year, from 2006Nifty Microcap 250: +5.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty Midcap 100Nifty Microcap 250SectorsNifty Chemicals: −5.4 points a year, from 2006Nifty Pharma: −4.8 points a year, from 2002Nifty Oil & Gas: −4.7 points a year, from 2006Nifty Bank: −4.4 points a year, from 2001Nifty500 Healthcare: −4.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty MidSmall Healthcare: −4.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty FMCG: −4.0 points a year, from 1997Nifty Auto: −3.3 points a year, from 2005Nifty REITs & Realty: −3.1 points a year, from 2022Nifty Private Bank: −2.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty Healthcare: −2.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty Financial Services Ex-Bank: −2.4 points a year, from 2006Nifty Consumer Durables: −2.4 points a year, from 2006Nifty Cement: −1.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty Financial Services 25/50: −0.7 points a year, from 2005Nifty Financial Services: −0.6 points a year, from 2005Nifty MidSmall IT & Telecom: +0.5 points a year, from 2006Nifty MidSmall Financial Services: +1.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty IT: +1.4 points a year, from 2000Nifty PSU Bank: +2.7 points a year, from 2005Nifty Media: +3.8 points a year, from 2007Nifty Realty: +6.1 points a year, from 2008Nifty Metal: +6.4 points a year, from 2005ChemicalsMetalThemesNifty Capital Markets: −9.6 points a year, from 2020Nifty India Defence: −7.5 points a year, from 2019Nifty Energy: −5.6 points a year, from 2002Nifty Non-Cyclical Consumer: −5.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty India Consumption: −5.2 points a year, from 2007Nifty Rural: −4.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty100 Enhanced ESG: −4.1 points a year, from 2012Nifty Shariah 25: −4.0 points a year, from 2010Nifty100 ESG: −3.9 points a year, from 2012Nifty Midcap Liquid 15: −3.7 points a year, from 2010Nifty MNC: −3.5 points a year, from 1996Nifty EV & New Age Automotive: −3.0 points a year, from 2019Nifty Core Housing: −2.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty100 ESG Sector Leaders: −2.7 points a year, from 2015Nifty MidSmall India Consumption: −2.7 points a year, from 2006Nifty PSE: −2.2 points a year, from 2001Nifty Transportation & Logistics: −2.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty Conglomerate 50: −2.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Mahindra Group: −2.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty Mobility: −1.9 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Shariah: −1.8 points a year, from 2008Nifty India Tourism: −1.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty India Select 5 Corporate Groups (MAATR): −1.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty Services Sector: −1.6 points a year, from 2000Nifty50 Shariah: −1.5 points a year, from 2008Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Tata Group: −1.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty100 Liquid 15: −0.7 points a year, from 2014Nifty REITs & InvITs: −0.6 points a year, from 2020Nifty Commodities: −0.5 points a year, from 2005Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Aditya Birla Group: −0.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty India New Age Consumption: −0.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Tata Group 25% Cap: −0.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Multicap Infrastructure 50:30:20: −0.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty Infrastructure: +0.1 points a year, from 2005Nifty Housing: +0.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Multicap India Manufacturing 50:30:20: +0.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty IPO: +1.1 points a year, from 2018Nifty CPSE: +1.4 points a year, from 2010Nifty SME Emerge: +4.9 points a year, from 2017Nifty Waves: +5.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty India Railways PSU: +8.8 points a year, from 2022Capital MarketsRailways PSUStrategiesNifty Alpha Quality Value Low-Volatility 30: −5.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty100 Low Volatility 30: −5.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty Low Volatility 50: −4.3 points a year, from 2004Nifty500 Low Volatility 50: −4.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty Alpha 50: −4.1 points a year, from 2004Nifty500 Multifactor MQVLv 50: −3.9 points a year, from 2006Nifty200 Quality 30: −3.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty200 Momentum 30: −3.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty200 Alpha 30: −3.7 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Quality 50: −3.7 points a year, from 2006Nifty Quality Low-Volatility 30: −3.4 points a year, from 2006Nifty50 Value 20: −3.4 points a year, from 2010Nifty500 Momentum 50: −3.4 points a year, from 2006Nifty50 Equal Weight: −3.4 points a year, from 1996Nifty100 Alpha 30: −3.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty Growth Sectors 15: −3.2 points a year, from 2010Nifty Alpha Low-Volatility 30: −2.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty Alpha Quality Low-Volatility 30: −2.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Multicap Momentum Quality 50: −2.5 points a year, from 2006Nifty Smallcap250 Momentum Quality 100: −2.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty MidSmallcap400 Momentum Quality 100: −2.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty Top 10 Equal Weight: −1.9 points a year, from 2007Nifty Midcap150 Momentum 50: −1.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty Top 20 Equal Weight: −1.7 points a year, from 2007Nifty100 Equal Weight: −1.7 points a year, from 2004Nifty Smallcap250 Quality 50: −1.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty Top 15 Equal Weight: −1.3 points a year, from 2007Nifty Midcap150 Quality 50: −1.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Equal Weight: +1.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty High Beta 50: +1.9 points a year, from 2004Nifty200 Value 30: +2.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Value 50: +2.4 points a year, from 2006Alpha Quality Value Low-Volatility 30Nifty500 Value 50Other assetsGold: −4.1 points a year, from 2001G-sec 5-year: −0.5 points a year, from 2002GoldG-sec 5-year−10−7.5−5−2.50+2.5+5+7.5+10After tax: rule minus buy and hold, points a year →BroadNifty Midcap 100: −2.2 points a year, from 2004Nifty 100: −2.1 points a year, from 2004Nifty 500: −2.0 points a year, from 1996Nifty 200: −1.9 points a year, from 2005Nifty Next 50: −1.8 points a year, from 2003Nifty 50: −1.8 points a year, from 2000Nifty Midcap 50: −1.3 points a year, from 2005Nifty500 Multicap 50:25:25: −1.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty LargeMidcap 250: −0.7 points a year, from 2006Nifty MidSmallcap 400: −0.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty Midcap 150: +0.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 LargeMidSmall Equal-Cap Weighted: +0.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty MidSmallcap400 50:50: +0.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty Smallcap 100: +1.0 points a year, from 2005Nifty Smallcap 250: +1.4 points a year, from 2006Nifty Smallcap 500: +2.4 points a year, from 2006Nifty Smallcap 50: +2.5 points a year, from 2006Nifty Microcap 250: +5.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty Midcap 100Nifty Microcap 250SectorsNifty Chemicals: −5.4 points a year, from 2006Nifty Pharma: −4.8 points a year, from 2002Nifty Oil & Gas: −4.7 points a year, from 2006Nifty Bank: −4.4 points a year, from 2001Nifty500 Healthcare: −4.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty MidSmall Healthcare: −4.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty FMCG: −4.0 points a year, from 1997Nifty Auto: −3.3 points a year, from 2005Nifty REITs & Realty: −3.1 points a year, from 2022Nifty Private Bank: −2.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty Healthcare: −2.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty Financial Services Ex-Bank: −2.4 points a year, from 2006Nifty Consumer Durables: −2.4 points a year, from 2006Nifty Cement: −1.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty Financial Services 25/50: −0.7 points a year, from 2005Nifty Financial Services: −0.6 points a year, from 2005Nifty MidSmall IT & Telecom: +0.5 points a year, from 2006Nifty MidSmall Financial Services: +1.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty IT: +1.4 points a year, from 2000Nifty PSU Bank: +2.7 points a year, from 2005Nifty Media: +3.8 points a year, from 2007Nifty Realty: +6.1 points a year, from 2008Nifty Metal: +6.4 points a year, from 2005ChemicalsMetalThemesNifty Capital Markets: −9.6 points a year, from 2020Nifty India Defence: −7.5 points a year, from 2019Nifty Energy: −5.6 points a year, from 2002Nifty Non-Cyclical Consumer: −5.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty India Consumption: −5.2 points a year, from 2007Nifty Rural: −4.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty100 Enhanced ESG: −4.1 points a year, from 2012Nifty Shariah 25: −4.0 points a year, from 2010Nifty100 ESG: −3.9 points a year, from 2012Nifty Midcap Liquid 15: −3.7 points a year, from 2010Nifty MNC: −3.5 points a year, from 1996Nifty EV & New Age Automotive: −3.0 points a year, from 2019Nifty Core Housing: −2.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty100 ESG Sector Leaders: −2.7 points a year, from 2015Nifty MidSmall India Consumption: −2.7 points a year, from 2006Nifty PSE: −2.2 points a year, from 2001Nifty Transportation & Logistics: −2.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty Conglomerate 50: −2.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Mahindra Group: −2.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty Mobility: −1.9 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Shariah: −1.8 points a year, from 2008Nifty India Tourism: −1.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty India Select 5 Corporate Groups (MAATR): −1.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty Services Sector: −1.6 points a year, from 2000Nifty50 Shariah: −1.5 points a year, from 2008Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Tata Group: −1.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty100 Liquid 15: −0.7 points a year, from 2014Nifty REITs & InvITs: −0.6 points a year, from 2020Nifty Commodities: −0.5 points a year, from 2005Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Aditya Birla Group: −0.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty India New Age Consumption: −0.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Tata Group 25% Cap: −0.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Multicap Infrastructure 50:30:20: −0.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty Infrastructure: +0.1 points a year, from 2005Nifty Housing: +0.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Multicap India Manufacturing 50:30:20: +0.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty IPO: +1.1 points a year, from 2018Nifty CPSE: +1.4 points a year, from 2010Nifty SME Emerge: +4.9 points a year, from 2017Nifty Waves: +5.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty India Railways PSU: +8.8 points a year, from 2022Capital MarketsRailways PSUStrategiesNifty Alpha Quality Value Low-Volatility 30: −5.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty100 Low Volatility 30: −5.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty Low Volatility 50: −4.3 points a year, from 2004Nifty500 Low Volatility 50: −4.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty Alpha 50: −4.1 points a year, from 2004Nifty500 Multifactor MQVLv 50: −3.9 points a year, from 2006Nifty200 Quality 30: −3.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty200 Momentum 30: −3.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty200 Alpha 30: −3.7 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Quality 50: −3.7 points a year, from 2006Nifty Quality Low-Volatility 30: −3.4 points a year, from 2006Nifty50 Value 20: −3.4 points a year, from 2010Nifty500 Momentum 50: −3.4 points a year, from 2006Nifty50 Equal Weight: −3.4 points a year, from 1996Nifty100 Alpha 30: −3.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty Growth Sectors 15: −3.2 points a year, from 2010Nifty Alpha Low-Volatility 30: −2.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty Alpha Quality Low-Volatility 30: −2.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Multicap Momentum Quality 50: −2.5 points a year, from 2006Nifty Smallcap250 Momentum Quality 100: −2.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty MidSmallcap400 Momentum Quality 100: −2.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty Top 10 Equal Weight: −1.9 points a year, from 2007Nifty Midcap150 Momentum 50: −1.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty Top 20 Equal Weight: −1.7 points a year, from 2007Nifty100 Equal Weight: −1.7 points a year, from 2004Nifty Smallcap250 Quality 50: −1.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty Top 15 Equal Weight: −1.3 points a year, from 2007Nifty Midcap150 Quality 50: −1.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Equal Weight: +1.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty High Beta 50: +1.9 points a year, from 2004Nifty200 Value 30: +2.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Value 50: +2.4 points a year, from 2006Alpha Quality Value Low-Volatility 30Nifty500 Value 50Other assetsGold: −4.1 points a year, from 2001G-sec 5-year: −0.5 points a year, from 2002GoldG-sec 5-year−10−50+5+10After tax: rule minus buy and hold, points a year →BroadNifty Midcap 100: −2.2 points a year, from 2004Nifty 100: −2.1 points a year, from 2004Nifty 500: −2.0 points a year, from 1996Nifty 200: −1.9 points a year, from 2005Nifty Next 50: −1.8 points a year, from 2003Nifty 50: −1.8 points a year, from 2000Nifty Midcap 50: −1.3 points a year, from 2005Nifty500 Multicap 50:25:25: −1.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty LargeMidcap 250: −0.7 points a year, from 2006Nifty MidSmallcap 400: −0.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty Midcap 150: +0.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 LargeMidSmall Equal-Cap Weighted: +0.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty MidSmallcap400 50:50: +0.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty Smallcap 100: +1.0 points a year, from 2005Nifty Smallcap 250: +1.4 points a year, from 2006Nifty Smallcap 500: +2.4 points a year, from 2006Nifty Smallcap 50: +2.5 points a year, from 2006Nifty Microcap 250: +5.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty Midcap 100Nifty Microcap 250SectorsNifty Chemicals: −5.4 points a year, from 2006Nifty Pharma: −4.8 points a year, from 2002Nifty Oil & Gas: −4.7 points a year, from 2006Nifty Bank: −4.4 points a year, from 2001Nifty500 Healthcare: −4.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty MidSmall Healthcare: −4.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty FMCG: −4.0 points a year, from 1997Nifty Auto: −3.3 points a year, from 2005Nifty REITs & Realty: −3.1 points a year, from 2022Nifty Private Bank: −2.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty Healthcare: −2.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty Financial Services Ex-Bank: −2.4 points a year, from 2006Nifty Consumer Durables: −2.4 points a year, from 2006Nifty Cement: −1.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty Financial Services 25/50: −0.7 points a year, from 2005Nifty Financial Services: −0.6 points a year, from 2005Nifty MidSmall IT & Telecom: +0.5 points a year, from 2006Nifty MidSmall Financial Services: +1.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty IT: +1.4 points a year, from 2000Nifty PSU Bank: +2.7 points a year, from 2005Nifty Media: +3.8 points a year, from 2007Nifty Realty: +6.1 points a year, from 2008Nifty Metal: +6.4 points a year, from 2005ChemicalsMetalThemesNifty Capital Markets: −9.6 points a year, from 2020Nifty India Defence: −7.5 points a year, from 2019Nifty Energy: −5.6 points a year, from 2002Nifty Non-Cyclical Consumer: −5.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty India Consumption: −5.2 points a year, from 2007Nifty Rural: −4.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty100 Enhanced ESG: −4.1 points a year, from 2012Nifty Shariah 25: −4.0 points a year, from 2010Nifty100 ESG: −3.9 points a year, from 2012Nifty Midcap Liquid 15: −3.7 points a year, from 2010Nifty MNC: −3.5 points a year, from 1996Nifty EV & New Age Automotive: −3.0 points a year, from 2019Nifty Core Housing: −2.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty100 ESG Sector Leaders: −2.7 points a year, from 2015Nifty MidSmall India Consumption: −2.7 points a year, from 2006Nifty PSE: −2.2 points a year, from 2001Nifty Transportation & Logistics: −2.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty Conglomerate 50: −2.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Mahindra Group: −2.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty Mobility: −1.9 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Shariah: −1.8 points a year, from 2008Nifty India Tourism: −1.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty India Select 5 Corporate Groups (MAATR): −1.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty Services Sector: −1.6 points a year, from 2000Nifty50 Shariah: −1.5 points a year, from 2008Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Tata Group: −1.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty100 Liquid 15: −0.7 points a year, from 2014Nifty REITs & InvITs: −0.6 points a year, from 2020Nifty Commodities: −0.5 points a year, from 2005Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Aditya Birla Group: −0.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty India New Age Consumption: −0.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Tata Group 25% Cap: −0.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Multicap Infrastructure 50:30:20: −0.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty Infrastructure: +0.1 points a year, from 2005Nifty Housing: +0.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Multicap India Manufacturing 50:30:20: +0.6 points a year, from 2006Nifty IPO: +1.1 points a year, from 2018Nifty CPSE: +1.4 points a year, from 2010Nifty SME Emerge: +4.9 points a year, from 2017Nifty Waves: +5.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty India Railways PSU: +8.8 points a year, from 2022Capital MarketsRailways PSUStrategiesNifty Alpha Quality Value Low-Volatility 30: −5.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty100 Low Volatility 30: −5.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty Low Volatility 50: −4.3 points a year, from 2004Nifty500 Low Volatility 50: −4.2 points a year, from 2006Nifty Alpha 50: −4.1 points a year, from 2004Nifty500 Multifactor MQVLv 50: −3.9 points a year, from 2006Nifty200 Quality 30: −3.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty200 Momentum 30: −3.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty200 Alpha 30: −3.7 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Quality 50: −3.7 points a year, from 2006Nifty Quality Low-Volatility 30: −3.4 points a year, from 2006Nifty50 Value 20: −3.4 points a year, from 2010Nifty500 Momentum 50: −3.4 points a year, from 2006Nifty50 Equal Weight: −3.4 points a year, from 1996Nifty100 Alpha 30: −3.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty Growth Sectors 15: −3.2 points a year, from 2010Nifty Alpha Low-Volatility 30: −2.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty Alpha Quality Low-Volatility 30: −2.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Multicap Momentum Quality 50: −2.5 points a year, from 2006Nifty Smallcap250 Momentum Quality 100: −2.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty MidSmallcap400 Momentum Quality 100: −2.0 points a year, from 2006Nifty Top 10 Equal Weight: −1.9 points a year, from 2007Nifty Midcap150 Momentum 50: −1.8 points a year, from 2006Nifty Top 20 Equal Weight: −1.7 points a year, from 2007Nifty100 Equal Weight: −1.7 points a year, from 2004Nifty Smallcap250 Quality 50: −1.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty Top 15 Equal Weight: −1.3 points a year, from 2007Nifty Midcap150 Quality 50: −1.1 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Equal Weight: +1.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty High Beta 50: +1.9 points a year, from 2004Nifty200 Value 30: +2.3 points a year, from 2006Nifty500 Value 50: +2.4 points a year, from 2006Alpha Quality Value Low-Volatility 30Nifty500 Value 50Other assetsGold: −4.1 points a year, from 2001G-sec 5-year: −0.5 points a year, from 2002GoldG-sec 5-year

What the rules did buy: shallower worst falls

The 200-day rule's worst fall minus buying and holding's, percentage points. Right of zero: shallower.

How to read it. Almost every dot is right of zero. This is what trend rules have reliably offered: a smaller worst fall, paid for with lower returns after tax.

0+10+20+30+40Worst fall: rule minus buy and hold, points →BroadNifty 50: +27.7 points, from 2000Nifty 100: +28.1 points, from 2004Nifty 500: +28.2 points, from 1996Nifty 200: +30.7 points, from 2005Nifty500 Multicap 50:25:25: +32.7 points, from 2006Nifty Midcap 100: +32.8 points, from 2004Nifty LargeMidcap 250: +32.9 points, from 2006Nifty500 LargeMidSmall Equal-Cap Weighted: +33.4 points, from 2006Nifty Midcap 150: +35.6 points, from 2006Nifty MidSmallcap 400: +37.1 points, from 2006Nifty MidSmallcap400 50:50: +37.2 points, from 2006Nifty Next 50: +39.0 points, from 2003Nifty Smallcap 250: +39.1 points, from 2006Nifty Smallcap 50: +39.8 points, from 2006Nifty Midcap 50: +39.9 points, from 2005Nifty Smallcap 100: +41.8 points, from 2005Nifty Smallcap 500: +42.9 points, from 2006Nifty Microcap 250: +44.1 points, from 2006Nifty 50Nifty Microcap 250SectorsNifty FMCG: −3.4 points, from 1997Nifty500 Healthcare: +3.0 points, from 2006Nifty REITs & Realty: +6.8 points, from 2022Nifty Healthcare: +15.1 points, from 2006Nifty Pharma: +19.1 points, from 2002Nifty PSU Bank: +22.3 points, from 2005Nifty MidSmall Healthcare: +24.4 points, from 2006Nifty Chemicals: +25.1 points, from 2006Nifty Oil & Gas: +25.1 points, from 2006Nifty Bank: +25.3 points, from 2001Nifty Auto: +26.7 points, from 2005Nifty Media: +31.3 points, from 2007Nifty MidSmall IT & Telecom: +32.0 points, from 2006Nifty Financial Services: +32.5 points, from 2005Nifty Financial Services Ex-Bank: +35.7 points, from 2006Nifty Realty: +35.8 points, from 2008Nifty Cement: +36.3 points, from 2006Nifty MidSmall Financial Services: +37.3 points, from 2006Nifty Financial Services 25/50: +37.4 points, from 2005Nifty Metal: +37.5 points, from 2005Nifty IT: +39.5 points, from 2000Nifty Private Bank: +40.0 points, from 2006Nifty Consumer Durables: +40.3 points, from 2006FMCGConsumer DurablesThemesNifty REITs & InvITs: +3.8 points, from 2020Nifty Shariah 25: +5.8 points, from 2010Nifty Capital Markets: +8.8 points, from 2020Nifty100 Enhanced ESG: +14.6 points, from 2012Nifty100 ESG: +14.8 points, from 2012Nifty Midcap Liquid 15: +15.1 points, from 2010Nifty MNC: +15.2 points, from 1996Nifty100 ESG Sector Leaders: +15.8 points, from 2015Nifty India Defence: +15.8 points, from 2019Nifty PSE: +20.4 points, from 2001Nifty EV & New Age Automotive: +20.8 points, from 2019Nifty CPSE: +22.3 points, from 2010Nifty India Railways PSU: +22.3 points, from 2022Nifty Energy: +23.9 points, from 2002Nifty IPO: +24.3 points, from 2018Nifty SME Emerge: +25.0 points, from 2017Nifty India Consumption: +25.8 points, from 2007Nifty50 Shariah: +26.0 points, from 2008Nifty Non-Cyclical Consumer: +26.9 points, from 2006Nifty Mobility: +27.9 points, from 2006Nifty100 Liquid 15: +28.1 points, from 2014Nifty Commodities: +29.1 points, from 2005Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Tata Group: +29.3 points, from 2006Nifty Rural: +30.2 points, from 2006Nifty Infrastructure: +31.2 points, from 2005Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Tata Group 25% Cap: +32.2 points, from 2006Nifty Transportation & Logistics: +32.7 points, from 2006Nifty500 Multicap Infrastructure 50:30:20: +33.6 points, from 2006Nifty Housing: +34.0 points, from 2006Nifty India Tourism: +34.1 points, from 2006Nifty500 Shariah: +34.2 points, from 2008Nifty500 Multicap India Manufacturing 50:30:20: +34.6 points, from 2006Nifty Services Sector: +34.6 points, from 2000Nifty India Select 5 Corporate Groups (MAATR): +35.4 points, from 2006Nifty MidSmall India Consumption: +36.1 points, from 2006Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Aditya Birla Group: +36.7 points, from 2006Nifty Conglomerate 50: +37.9 points, from 2006Nifty Core Housing: +39.6 points, from 2006Nifty India New Age Consumption: +40.1 points, from 2006Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Mahindra Group: +41.6 points, from 2006Nifty Waves: +46.4 points, from 2006REITs & InvITsWavesStrategiesNifty50 Value 20: +4.6 points, from 2010Nifty Alpha Quality Low-Volatility 30: +14.7 points, from 2006Nifty500 Quality 50: +16.5 points, from 2006Nifty500 Low Volatility 50: +16.5 points, from 2006Nifty Low Volatility 50: +16.9 points, from 2004Nifty100 Low Volatility 30: +17.0 points, from 2006Nifty Alpha Quality Value Low-Volatility 30: +18.2 points, from 2006Nifty Quality Low-Volatility 30: +18.2 points, from 2006Nifty200 Quality 30: +21.3 points, from 2006Nifty High Beta 50: +22.3 points, from 2004Nifty500 Multifactor MQVLv 50: +22.7 points, from 2006Nifty Growth Sectors 15: +22.9 points, from 2010Nifty200 Value 30: +24.3 points, from 2006Nifty Alpha Low-Volatility 30: +24.8 points, from 2006Nifty50 Equal Weight: +25.6 points, from 1996Nifty500 Multicap Momentum Quality 50: +26.3 points, from 2006Nifty Midcap150 Quality 50: +27.1 points, from 2006Nifty500 Value 50: +27.7 points, from 2006Nifty Top 15 Equal Weight: +28.8 points, from 2007Nifty Top 20 Equal Weight: +30.6 points, from 2007Nifty200 Momentum 30: +32.5 points, from 2006Nifty100 Alpha 30: +33.8 points, from 2006Nifty Midcap150 Momentum 50: +34.2 points, from 2006Nifty500 Momentum 50: +34.8 points, from 2006Nifty Smallcap250 Momentum Quality 100: +34.9 points, from 2006Nifty100 Equal Weight: +35.0 points, from 2004Nifty Smallcap250 Quality 50: +35.0 points, from 2006Nifty MidSmallcap400 Momentum Quality 100: +35.3 points, from 2006Nifty500 Equal Weight: +35.7 points, from 2006Nifty Top 10 Equal Weight: +37.2 points, from 2007Nifty200 Alpha 30: +37.4 points, from 2006Nifty Alpha 50: +40.3 points, from 2004Nifty50 Value 20Alpha 50Other assetsGold: −2.1 points, from 2001G-sec 5-year: +1.0 points, from 2002GoldG-sec 5-year0+10+20+30+40Worst fall: rule minus buy and hold, points →BroadNifty 50: +27.7 points, from 2000Nifty 100: +28.1 points, from 2004Nifty 500: +28.2 points, from 1996Nifty 200: +30.7 points, from 2005Nifty500 Multicap 50:25:25: +32.7 points, from 2006Nifty Midcap 100: +32.8 points, from 2004Nifty LargeMidcap 250: +32.9 points, from 2006Nifty500 LargeMidSmall Equal-Cap Weighted: +33.4 points, from 2006Nifty Midcap 150: +35.6 points, from 2006Nifty MidSmallcap 400: +37.1 points, from 2006Nifty MidSmallcap400 50:50: +37.2 points, from 2006Nifty Next 50: +39.0 points, from 2003Nifty Smallcap 250: +39.1 points, from 2006Nifty Smallcap 50: +39.8 points, from 2006Nifty Midcap 50: +39.9 points, from 2005Nifty Smallcap 100: +41.8 points, from 2005Nifty Smallcap 500: +42.9 points, from 2006Nifty Microcap 250: +44.1 points, from 2006Nifty 50SectorsNifty FMCG: −3.4 points, from 1997Nifty500 Healthcare: +3.0 points, from 2006Nifty REITs & Realty: +6.8 points, from 2022Nifty Healthcare: +15.1 points, from 2006Nifty Pharma: +19.1 points, from 2002Nifty PSU Bank: +22.3 points, from 2005Nifty MidSmall Healthcare: +24.4 points, from 2006Nifty Chemicals: +25.1 points, from 2006Nifty Oil & Gas: +25.1 points, from 2006Nifty Bank: +25.3 points, from 2001Nifty Auto: +26.7 points, from 2005Nifty Media: +31.3 points, from 2007Nifty MidSmall IT & Telecom: +32.0 points, from 2006Nifty Financial Services: +32.5 points, from 2005Nifty Financial Services Ex-Bank: +35.7 points, from 2006Nifty Realty: +35.8 points, from 2008Nifty Cement: +36.3 points, from 2006Nifty MidSmall Financial Services: +37.3 points, from 2006Nifty Financial Services 25/50: +37.4 points, from 2005Nifty Metal: +37.5 points, from 2005Nifty IT: +39.5 points, from 2000Nifty Private Bank: +40.0 points, from 2006Nifty Consumer Durables: +40.3 points, from 2006FMCGConsumer DurablesThemesNifty REITs & InvITs: +3.8 points, from 2020Nifty Shariah 25: +5.8 points, from 2010Nifty Capital Markets: +8.8 points, from 2020Nifty100 Enhanced ESG: +14.6 points, from 2012Nifty100 ESG: +14.8 points, from 2012Nifty Midcap Liquid 15: +15.1 points, from 2010Nifty MNC: +15.2 points, from 1996Nifty100 ESG Sector Leaders: +15.8 points, from 2015Nifty India Defence: +15.8 points, from 2019Nifty PSE: +20.4 points, from 2001Nifty EV & New Age Automotive: +20.8 points, from 2019Nifty CPSE: +22.3 points, from 2010Nifty India Railways PSU: +22.3 points, from 2022Nifty Energy: +23.9 points, from 2002Nifty IPO: +24.3 points, from 2018Nifty SME Emerge: +25.0 points, from 2017Nifty India Consumption: +25.8 points, from 2007Nifty50 Shariah: +26.0 points, from 2008Nifty Non-Cyclical Consumer: +26.9 points, from 2006Nifty Mobility: +27.9 points, from 2006Nifty100 Liquid 15: +28.1 points, from 2014Nifty Commodities: +29.1 points, from 2005Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Tata Group: +29.3 points, from 2006Nifty Rural: +30.2 points, from 2006Nifty Infrastructure: +31.2 points, from 2005Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Tata Group 25% Cap: +32.2 points, from 2006Nifty Transportation & Logistics: +32.7 points, from 2006Nifty500 Multicap Infrastructure 50:30:20: +33.6 points, from 2006Nifty Housing: +34.0 points, from 2006Nifty India Tourism: +34.1 points, from 2006Nifty500 Shariah: +34.2 points, from 2008Nifty500 Multicap India Manufacturing 50:30:20: +34.6 points, from 2006Nifty Services Sector: +34.6 points, from 2000Nifty India Select 5 Corporate Groups (MAATR): +35.4 points, from 2006Nifty MidSmall India Consumption: +36.1 points, from 2006Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Aditya Birla Group: +36.7 points, from 2006Nifty Conglomerate 50: +37.9 points, from 2006Nifty Core Housing: +39.6 points, from 2006Nifty India New Age Consumption: +40.1 points, from 2006Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Mahindra Group: +41.6 points, from 2006Nifty Waves: +46.4 points, from 2006REITs & InvITsWavesStrategiesNifty50 Value 20: +4.6 points, from 2010Nifty Alpha Quality Low-Volatility 30: +14.7 points, from 2006Nifty500 Quality 50: +16.5 points, from 2006Nifty500 Low Volatility 50: +16.5 points, from 2006Nifty Low Volatility 50: +16.9 points, from 2004Nifty100 Low Volatility 30: +17.0 points, from 2006Nifty Alpha Quality Value Low-Volatility 30: +18.2 points, from 2006Nifty Quality Low-Volatility 30: +18.2 points, from 2006Nifty200 Quality 30: +21.3 points, from 2006Nifty High Beta 50: +22.3 points, from 2004Nifty500 Multifactor MQVLv 50: +22.7 points, from 2006Nifty Growth Sectors 15: +22.9 points, from 2010Nifty200 Value 30: +24.3 points, from 2006Nifty Alpha Low-Volatility 30: +24.8 points, from 2006Nifty50 Equal Weight: +25.6 points, from 1996Nifty500 Multicap Momentum Quality 50: +26.3 points, from 2006Nifty Midcap150 Quality 50: +27.1 points, from 2006Nifty500 Value 50: +27.7 points, from 2006Nifty Top 15 Equal Weight: +28.8 points, from 2007Nifty Top 20 Equal Weight: +30.6 points, from 2007Nifty200 Momentum 30: +32.5 points, from 2006Nifty100 Alpha 30: +33.8 points, from 2006Nifty Midcap150 Momentum 50: +34.2 points, from 2006Nifty500 Momentum 50: +34.8 points, from 2006Nifty Smallcap250 Momentum Quality 100: +34.9 points, from 2006Nifty100 Equal Weight: +35.0 points, from 2004Nifty Smallcap250 Quality 50: +35.0 points, from 2006Nifty MidSmallcap400 Momentum Quality 100: +35.3 points, from 2006Nifty500 Equal Weight: +35.7 points, from 2006Nifty Top 10 Equal Weight: +37.2 points, from 2007Nifty200 Alpha 30: +37.4 points, from 2006Nifty Alpha 50: +40.3 points, from 2004Nifty50 Value 20Alpha 50Other assetsGold: −2.1 points, from 2001G-sec 5-year: +1.0 points, from 2002GoldG-sec 5-year0+20+40Worst fall: rule minus buy and hold, points →BroadNifty 50: +27.7 points, from 2000Nifty 100: +28.1 points, from 2004Nifty 500: +28.2 points, from 1996Nifty 200: +30.7 points, from 2005Nifty500 Multicap 50:25:25: +32.7 points, from 2006Nifty Midcap 100: +32.8 points, from 2004Nifty LargeMidcap 250: +32.9 points, from 2006Nifty500 LargeMidSmall Equal-Cap Weighted: +33.4 points, from 2006Nifty Midcap 150: +35.6 points, from 2006Nifty MidSmallcap 400: +37.1 points, from 2006Nifty MidSmallcap400 50:50: +37.2 points, from 2006Nifty Next 50: +39.0 points, from 2003Nifty Smallcap 250: +39.1 points, from 2006Nifty Smallcap 50: +39.8 points, from 2006Nifty Midcap 50: +39.9 points, from 2005Nifty Smallcap 100: +41.8 points, from 2005Nifty Smallcap 500: +42.9 points, from 2006Nifty Microcap 250: +44.1 points, from 2006Nifty 50SectorsNifty FMCG: −3.4 points, from 1997Nifty500 Healthcare: +3.0 points, from 2006Nifty REITs & Realty: +6.8 points, from 2022Nifty Healthcare: +15.1 points, from 2006Nifty Pharma: +19.1 points, from 2002Nifty PSU Bank: +22.3 points, from 2005Nifty MidSmall Healthcare: +24.4 points, from 2006Nifty Chemicals: +25.1 points, from 2006Nifty Oil & Gas: +25.1 points, from 2006Nifty Bank: +25.3 points, from 2001Nifty Auto: +26.7 points, from 2005Nifty Media: +31.3 points, from 2007Nifty MidSmall IT & Telecom: +32.0 points, from 2006Nifty Financial Services: +32.5 points, from 2005Nifty Financial Services Ex-Bank: +35.7 points, from 2006Nifty Realty: +35.8 points, from 2008Nifty Cement: +36.3 points, from 2006Nifty MidSmall Financial Services: +37.3 points, from 2006Nifty Financial Services 25/50: +37.4 points, from 2005Nifty Metal: +37.5 points, from 2005Nifty IT: +39.5 points, from 2000Nifty Private Bank: +40.0 points, from 2006Nifty Consumer Durables: +40.3 points, from 2006FMCGConsumer DurablesThemesNifty REITs & InvITs: +3.8 points, from 2020Nifty Shariah 25: +5.8 points, from 2010Nifty Capital Markets: +8.8 points, from 2020Nifty100 Enhanced ESG: +14.6 points, from 2012Nifty100 ESG: +14.8 points, from 2012Nifty Midcap Liquid 15: +15.1 points, from 2010Nifty MNC: +15.2 points, from 1996Nifty100 ESG Sector Leaders: +15.8 points, from 2015Nifty India Defence: +15.8 points, from 2019Nifty PSE: +20.4 points, from 2001Nifty EV & New Age Automotive: +20.8 points, from 2019Nifty CPSE: +22.3 points, from 2010Nifty India Railways PSU: +22.3 points, from 2022Nifty Energy: +23.9 points, from 2002Nifty IPO: +24.3 points, from 2018Nifty SME Emerge: +25.0 points, from 2017Nifty India Consumption: +25.8 points, from 2007Nifty50 Shariah: +26.0 points, from 2008Nifty Non-Cyclical Consumer: +26.9 points, from 2006Nifty Mobility: +27.9 points, from 2006Nifty100 Liquid 15: +28.1 points, from 2014Nifty Commodities: +29.1 points, from 2005Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Tata Group: +29.3 points, from 2006Nifty Rural: +30.2 points, from 2006Nifty Infrastructure: +31.2 points, from 2005Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Tata Group 25% Cap: +32.2 points, from 2006Nifty Transportation & Logistics: +32.7 points, from 2006Nifty500 Multicap Infrastructure 50:30:20: +33.6 points, from 2006Nifty Housing: +34.0 points, from 2006Nifty India Tourism: +34.1 points, from 2006Nifty500 Shariah: +34.2 points, from 2008Nifty500 Multicap India Manufacturing 50:30:20: +34.6 points, from 2006Nifty Services Sector: +34.6 points, from 2000Nifty India Select 5 Corporate Groups (MAATR): +35.4 points, from 2006Nifty MidSmall India Consumption: +36.1 points, from 2006Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Aditya Birla Group: +36.7 points, from 2006Nifty Conglomerate 50: +37.9 points, from 2006Nifty Core Housing: +39.6 points, from 2006Nifty India New Age Consumption: +40.1 points, from 2006Nifty India Corporate Group Index - Mahindra Group: +41.6 points, from 2006Nifty Waves: +46.4 points, from 2006REITs & InvITsWavesStrategiesNifty50 Value 20: +4.6 points, from 2010Nifty Alpha Quality Low-Volatility 30: +14.7 points, from 2006Nifty500 Quality 50: +16.5 points, from 2006Nifty500 Low Volatility 50: +16.5 points, from 2006Nifty Low Volatility 50: +16.9 points, from 2004Nifty100 Low Volatility 30: +17.0 points, from 2006Nifty Alpha Quality Value Low-Volatility 30: +18.2 points, from 2006Nifty Quality Low-Volatility 30: +18.2 points, from 2006Nifty200 Quality 30: +21.3 points, from 2006Nifty High Beta 50: +22.3 points, from 2004Nifty500 Multifactor MQVLv 50: +22.7 points, from 2006Nifty Growth Sectors 15: +22.9 points, from 2010Nifty200 Value 30: +24.3 points, from 2006Nifty Alpha Low-Volatility 30: +24.8 points, from 2006Nifty50 Equal Weight: +25.6 points, from 1996Nifty500 Multicap Momentum Quality 50: +26.3 points, from 2006Nifty Midcap150 Quality 50: +27.1 points, from 2006Nifty500 Value 50: +27.7 points, from 2006Nifty Top 15 Equal Weight: +28.8 points, from 2007Nifty Top 20 Equal Weight: +30.6 points, from 2007Nifty200 Momentum 30: +32.5 points, from 2006Nifty100 Alpha 30: +33.8 points, from 2006Nifty Midcap150 Momentum 50: +34.2 points, from 2006Nifty500 Momentum 50: +34.8 points, from 2006Nifty Smallcap250 Momentum Quality 100: +34.9 points, from 2006Nifty100 Equal Weight: +35.0 points, from 2004Nifty Smallcap250 Quality 50: +35.0 points, from 2006Nifty MidSmallcap400 Momentum Quality 100: +35.3 points, from 2006Nifty500 Equal Weight: +35.7 points, from 2006Nifty Top 10 Equal Weight: +37.2 points, from 2007Nifty200 Alpha 30: +37.4 points, from 2006Nifty Alpha 50: +40.3 points, from 2004Nifty50 Value 20Alpha 50Other assetsGold: −2.1 points, from 2001G-sec 5-year: +1.0 points, from 2002GoldG-sec 5-year

The workings

Method

Data

Every chart has a table view, a CSV download and a link to its published JSON. Bundles are listed in data status.

Read with