Economy
How is India's economy doing?
Running hot, and households are the soft spot. 26 of 38 activity indicators are improving, more than in most months since 2008, while all 8 price measures are rising faster. Here is the whole picture, one question at a time, with every number from the official data.
Written for anyone who wants to know how India's economy is really doing, and why. Data to 25 Oct 2026.
Running hot, and households are the soft spot.
Activity is broad. 26 of 38 activity indicators are improving, 68% against a median of 48% since 2008 and 45% a year ago. Read against their own last three years, they put the activity composite at +0.77 in Jul 2026, the latest month every theme reports, up from −0.17 three months earlier; taxes did the most to lift it.
Prices are heating. Consumer prices rose 4.8% in the year to Aug 2026, above the RBI's 4% target, and inflation outside food and fuel was 4.4%. All 8 price measures are rising faster than three months ago, 5 of 7 are hotter than their usual range, and the inflation composite, at +0.93, is the highest since Oct 2022; core rose most over the quarter.
Households are the soft spot: 5 of their 7 readings are weaker than usual, and only 2 stronger. The weakest reading on the whole board is in this group: consumer confidence, a year ahead.
Money is plentiful. The banking system has had surplus cash for 115 days in a row, since 30 Jun 2026. The RBI's repo rate is 5.50%, and the government pays 7.46% to borrow for ten years. Financial conditions, our index of rates, spreads, credit, shares and the rupee, were looser than in 91% of months since 2014 in Aug 2026.
Ten questions
The economy is too big for one number. Each question below has its own page, or will soon; until then the link goes to where the data lives today. The count is how many of that dimension's readings are stronger (or, for prices, hotter) than their usual range over the last three years.
- Growth Is India growing fast enough, and who is carrying it? 6 of 7 stronger than usual, 1 weaker
- Prices Is inflation under control, and is it broad or just food? 5 of 7 hotter than usual
- Jobs and incomes Are people finding work and earning more? 0 of 1 stronger than usual
- Households Are people spending, in cities and villages alike? 2 of 7 stronger than usual, 5 weaker
- Business and investment Are companies investing, and is capacity filling up? 4 of 7 stronger than usual, 1 weaker
- Money and credit Is money cheap, and is it reaching borrowers? 2 of 2 stronger than usual
- Government Is the government's borrowing sustainable? 1 of 1 stronger than usual Full page coming
- External Is India's position with the world sound? 1 of 4 stronger than usual, 1 weaker
- Rural and agriculture How are the monsoon, the crops and rural demand doing? 3 of 5 stronger than usual Full page coming
- States How is each state doing? 1 of 2 stronger than usual, 1 weaker Full page coming
Hot or cold?
Two summary readings: how strong activity is, and how hot prices are, each against its own last three years. Zero is normal; above zero is stronger or hotter than usual. Both are above zero now, which is what running hot means.
Activity against its recent norm
7 themes of monthly indicators, from industry and freight to spending, credit and taxes, equally weighted. The newest month can rest on few indicators; the words use the last complete month.
How to read it. Read the direction and the distance from zero, not the number itself: it is not a growth rate. A reading of +1 means activity indicators are, on average, one usual swing stronger than over their last three years.
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Inflation pressure against its recent norm
Consumer prices (headline, core, food), producer prices and households' expectations, each against its own last three years.
How to read it. Above zero, price pressure is hotter than over the last three years. Producer prices can swing far; each indicator is capped at four usual swings so no single one dominates.
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How broad is it?
An economy can look strong because of a few big numbers. Breadth asks how many indicators are improving. 68% are now, against 48% in the typical month since 2008: higher than in 85% of months.
Share of activity indicators improving
Each month, the share of activity indicators whose latest reading beats their reading three months earlier, counting only data published by then.
How to read it. Above half, more of the economy is improving than not. The history uses today's figures for past months, so revisions after the fact are in it; it is a guide to breadth, not a forecast.
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Money
Is money cheap, and is it reaching borrowers?
How much cash the banking system has, and what borrowing costs, decide whether money reaches people and firms. The full story is on the Money and credit pages.
- Surplus of ₹0.31 lakh crore in the banking system on 22 Oct 2026, after 115 straight days of surplus.
- Repo rate 5.50%, the rate at which the RBI lends to banks overnight.
- Ten-year government bond 7.46% on 22 Oct 2026 (what it costs India to borrow).
Financial conditions
Rates, spreads, bank lending rates, credit growth, share prices and the rupee, each against its history since 2014.
How to read it. Above zero, money is tighter than usual; below, looser. It is our own index, built without FBIL, FIMMDA or CCIL figures, so it will not match the RBI's.
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What's next
The official releases due soon, from MoSPI's release calendar. MoSPI sometimes slips: 7 of the 37 releases so far this financial year came later than scheduled, by up to 3 days.
- All India Index of Industrial Production (IIP)Growth
- Index of Services Production (ISP)Growth
- Quarterly Bulletin of PLFS for the Quarter July – Sep 2026Jobs and incomes
- All India Consumer Price Index (CPI)Prices
- Monthly Bulletin of PLFS – Oct 2026Jobs and incomes
- Quarterly Bulletin of ASUSE for the Quarter July – Sep 2026Business and investment
What the numbers can't tell you
- Readings, not rates
- The activity and inflation readings are measured against each indicator's own last three years. They say stronger or weaker than usual, not how fast the economy grew or prices rose. More.
- Not a forecast
- We tested whether breadth, the composites or financial conditions told us anything about future GDP, industrial output or credit. They did not, so we do not claim it; industrial output alone tracks GDP better. More.
- History is reconstructed
- Past months use today's figures with their usual publication lags, not what was known at the time. Revisions after the fact are in the history.
- Some data run late
- A few series stop months ago, at source or in our collection. Those are left out of the readings rather than carried forward, and listed in the method notes. More.
- The 2026 base changes
- GDP, CPI, IIP and WPI all moved to new base years in 2026. Comparisons across the change are made only where the statisticians link the series.
The workings
The question
Data
Every chart has a table view, a CSV download and a link to its published JSON. Bundles are listed in data status.