RBI bulletin: GDP grew 7.8%, CPI rises to 3.9%
The rising inflation print and global uncertainty keep the central bank's neutral stance intact.
What changed
- GDP grew 7.8% in Q4:2025-26, driven by consumption and fixed investment
- CPI inflation rose to 3.9% in May from 3.5% in April
- MPC kept repo rate unchanged at 5.25% with neutral stance
The read
In its June bulletin, the RBI reported that the Indian economy grew at 7.8 per cent in Q4:2025-26, supported by private consumption and fixed investment. High-frequency indicators for May show sustained activity. CPI inflation climbed to 3.9 per cent in May from 3.5 per cent in April, driven by broad-based rises in food, fuel and core items. The MPC earlier in June unanimously held the repo rate at 5.25 per cent and retained a neutral stance, awaiting clarity on the West Asia conflict and monsoon risks. The World Bank has cut its global growth forecast for 2026 to 2.9 per cent from 3.2 per cent. The data suggest the central bank will need to balance growth support against rising price pressures before considering any rate move.
Key numbers
- GDP growth Q4:2025-26: 7.8%
- CPI inflation May 2026: 3.9%
- Repo rate: 5.25%
- World Bank global growth 2026: 2.9%
Primary source: rbi.org.in