Economy
How are India's farms and villages doing?
Reservoirs are low going into the winter crop, while the state's grain stores are full. India's major reservoirs held 69% of their live capacity on 15 Oct 2026, against 91% a year earlier and a normal of 82%: storage was 16.4% below normal.
Written for readers following the farm economy and rural demand. Data checked on 26 Oct 2026.
Reservoirs are low going into the winter crop, while the state's grain stores are full
India's major reservoirs held 69% of their live capacity on 15 Oct 2026, against 91% a year earlier and a normal of 82%: storage was 16.4% below normal. That is the lowest reading against normal in the 163 weekly bulletins we hold, which begin in Jan 2023; each week's normal is for the reservoirs CWC monitored that week. Southern India was furthest behind, 42.9% below normal; 2 of 5 regions were more than 10% below.
Rabi (winter) sowing has only begun: 3.4 lakh hectares by 16 Oct 2026, against 4.7 a year earlier. By 11 Sept 2026, farmers had sown 1,096.5 lakh hectares in the kharif (monsoon) season, 1.4% less than a year earlier and 99% of the normal area.
On 1 Oct 2026 the central pool held 840.8 lakh tonnes of wheat and rice, 2.7 times the stocking norm for that date (307.7 lakh tonnes). Rice was 3.7 times its norm and wheat 2.3 times. Stocks have been above the norm on every one of the 14 quarter dates held since Apr 2019.
Fertiliser sales in Jul 2026 were 18.9% lower than a year earlier: urea 14.1% down, DAP 7.4% down, potash (MOP) 29.0% down and complexes (NPK) 35.7% down. Tractor registrations in Sept 2026 were 16.4% higher than a year earlier, and two-wheelers 33.6% higher. Rural consumer prices rose 6.1% in the year to Sept 2026, against 4.9% in cities; rural food prices rose 7.7%.
usual range: the middle half of all readings latest Each line runs from the lowest reading to the highest. Each row against its own history, which is short for the newer sources: reservoirs from 2023, fertiliser from 2024.
This week
India's major reservoirs held 69% of their live capacity on 15 Oct 2026, against 91% a year earlier and a normal of 82%: storage was 16.4% below normal. Since 1 Oct 2026, 530 of 741 districts have had deficient rain or none, against 140 with more than normal (IMD, to 25 Oct 2026).
This season
Rabi (winter) sowing has only begun: 3.4 lakh hectares by 16 Oct 2026, against 4.7 a year earlier. By 11 Sept 2026, farmers had sown 1,096.5 lakh hectares in the kharif (monsoon) season, 1.4% less than a year earlier and 99% of the normal area.
This year
On 1 Oct 2026 the central pool held 840.8 lakh tonnes of wheat and rice, 2.7 times the stocking norm for that date (307.7 lakh tonnes). Rice was 3.7 times its norm and wheat 2.3 times. Stocks have been above the norm on every one of the 14 quarter dates held since Apr 2019.
Is there enough water for the winter crop?
That is the lowest reading against normal in the 163 weekly bulletins we hold, which begin in Jan 2023; each week's normal is for the reservoirs CWC monitored that week. Southern India was furthest behind, 42.9% below normal; 2 of 5 regions were more than 10% below.
Water in India's major reservoirs
Live storage, % of live capacity, each week; the normal is the average of the past ten years for that week.
How to read it. Reservoirs fill through the monsoon and are drawn down for the winter crop and summer drinking water. A line below the normal in October means less water to carry the rabi season.
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How much grain does the state hold?
On 1 Oct 2026 the central pool held 840.8 lakh tonnes of wheat and rice, 2.7 times the stocking norm for that date (307.7 lakh tonnes). Rice was 3.7 times its norm and wheat 2.3 times. Stocks have been above the norm on every one of the 14 quarter dates held since Apr 2019.
Central pool stocks against the stocking norm
Wheat and milled rice, lakh tonnes, on 1 April, 1 July, 1 October and 1 January, the dates the norms apply.
How to read it. Stocks rise after each harvest's procurement (wheat in April to June, rice from October) and fall as grain goes out through rations. Gaps are bulletins in older layouts not yet read.
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Are farmers buying fertiliser?
Fertiliser sales in Jul 2026 were 18.9% lower than a year earlier: urea 14.1% down, DAP 7.4% down, potash (MOP) 29.0% down and complexes (NPK) 35.7% down.
Fertiliser sales against a year earlier
Urea, DAP, MOP and NPK complexes, % on the same month a year earlier.
How to read it. Sales track sowing: a late monsoon or dry reservoirs delay purchases, and subsidised prices mean sales say more about planting than about prices.
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Are villages spending?
Tractor registrations in Sept 2026 were 16.4% higher than a year earlier, and two-wheelers 33.6% higher. Rural consumer prices rose 6.1% in the year to Sept 2026, against 4.9% in cities; rural food prices rose 7.7%.
Tractor and two-wheeler registrations
% on the same month a year earlier.
How to read it. Tractors follow farm incomes and credit; two-wheelers are the village's main vehicle purchase. Festival months shift between October and November, so look at the trend, not one month.
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What the numbers can't tell you
- Short histories
- The reservoir bulletins held start in January 2023, sowing in July 2023, fertiliser sales in January 2024, and IMD's district rainfall only on the day we began capturing it (IMD keeps no archive). Comparisons with the past rest on the source's own normal, not on our history.
- Reservoirs are not groundwater
- The bulletin covers the large reservoirs the Central Water Commission monitors, a list that has grown over the years; each week compares its reservoirs with their own normal. Much of India's irrigation draws on wells and tanks that it does not measure, so low reservoirs mean a harder rabi season in canal-fed areas, not everywhere.
- Area sown is not output
- Sowing shows how much land was planted. Yields depend on rain after sowing, heat and pests, and arrive months later in the crop estimates.
- Rice stocks leave out paddy
- Central pool rice is milled rice. Paddy not yet milled, which can be large after the kharif harvest, is listed separately in the bulletin and not added here.
- The norm is a minimum
- Stocking norms are the least the Centre wants to hold on each quarter's first day for rations and emergencies. Stocks far above the norm cost money to store and can rot; they are not a measure of the harvest.
- Fertiliser sales move with the seasons
- Sales peak before kharif and rabi sowing and fall between them, and a late monsoon shifts the timing. Compare a month with the same month a year earlier.
The workings
The question
Data
Every chart has a table view, a CSV download and a link to its published JSON. Bundles are listed in data status.