The questions, answered
Twelve questions a reader brings to the market, each answered from the data every day. Each answer links to its dossier: the evidence ranked, what changed, what my own tests say and what would change the answer.
Answers as of 7 Oct 2026. How the answers are made.
- Is the market expensive?Somewhat expensive
The Nifty 50 costs 19.3 times its last year's earnings, higher than 61% of readings since 1999.
- Is the market in an uptrend?Downtrend
4 of every 100 trend rules I track vote up for the Nifty 500, which has returned −5.3% over three months and −4.1% over a year.
- Are most stocks taking part?Fewer stocks strong than usual
The Nifty 500 has returned −5.3% over three months, and 51% of liquid stocks are above their 200-day average: the weakness is broad, not confined to a few large stocks.
- What is leading?Micro caps; MidSmall Healthcare, Pharma and Media
Micro caps have led the Nifty 500 by 26.0 percentage points over six months, and are still ahead over the last month.
- How risky is the market right now?Low
The Nifty 500 has moved at an annualised 12.6% over the last month, lower than 71% of weeks since 1995, and is 8.2% below its peak.
- How much speculation is there?Above usual
Borrowed money to hold shares is 32 bps of market value, the highest reading since 2017; option premium is 0.45× the value of shares traded, higher than 61% of months since 2015.
- Who is buying?Mutual funds buying, companies and others selling
Over the three months to Oct 2026 to 1 Oct 2026, mutual funds bought a net ₹1.1 lakh cr of Indian shares on the exchanges and companies and others sold a net ₹68,426 cr.
- Is money cheap?Cheap
After inflation the repo rate is 0.43%, lower than 60% of months since 2001, and the overnight call rate is 13 bps below it. At its last meeting, on 5 August 2026, the MPC left the repo rate at 5.25%.
- How is the economy doing?Strong
The economy grew 7.8% in real terms in the latest quarter, higher than 76% of quarters since 2012, and consumer inflation is 4.8% against the RBI's 4% target.
- What is the rupee doing?Weakening
At 96.31 to the dollar, the rupee has weakened 1.0% over three months and 8.5% over a year, while the dollar itself has risen 1.1% against all its trading partners.
- Is the world helping or hurting Indian shares?Headwinds
The US 10-year real yield is 2.95%, the highest reading since 2003, and the dollar has risen 0.6% against its trading partners in six months.
- Are the products doing what they promise?5 of 6 promises hold
Not holding: international ETFs, whose median premium to NAV is 27.25% against a bar of within ±0.50%.