Famous findings, tested on Indian data
Each study is written down before it is run: the hypothesis, the data, the tests and the rule for the verdict. Then it runs once, and the result is published whichever way it falls.
Posts
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Indian IPOs don't lag the market over the long run. The typical one still does
A portfolio of every mainboard IPO in its first three years earned an alpha of +4.1% a year over the Nifty 500, statistically indistinguishable from zero. The underperformance Ritter found in the US does not show up, but the median IPO trails the market at every horizon.
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Trend rules halve the worst falls in Indian stocks, and cost you for it
Every trend rule tested cut the Nifty 50's worst fall from −59.5% to between −27% and −39%. None beat buying and holding on risk-adjusted terms once the 35 trials were accounted for, and after tax every rule trailed buy-and-hold on every large-cap index.
The scoreboard
One finding tested so far; none holds up in India. The count grows as the research bench publishes.
- Long-run performance of IPOs in India Does not replicateUS IPOs from 1975-84 underperformed matched firms over three years after listing (3-year wealth relative 0.83); issuers in high-volume years did worst.
From the replication scoreboard, updated 1 Oct 2026. A finding counts as surviving only if it fully replicates; partial results and failures count against it, and untestable ones are left out.
Pre-registration cards
The specifications behind every result on this site, with their results logs. Changes after the first run are logged in each, with a date and a reason.
- Audit register: every calculation that produces a claimHouse specification,
docs/research/audit.md - Audit deepening studiesHouse specification,
docs/research/audit_deepening_spec.md - BAF net equity from returns (route A)House specification,
docs/research/baf_equity_spec.md - IPO listing and long-run returnsHouse specification,
docs/research/ipo_spec.md - Market mood (fear and greed; bull and bear)House specification,
docs/research/market_mood_spec.md - Momentum barometer (blended flavours)House specification,
docs/research/momentum_barometer_spec.md - Portfolio labHouse specification,
docs/research/portfolio_lab_spec.md - Portfolio lab v2House specification,
docs/research/portfolio_lab_v2_spec.md - An Indian model library: what we can learn from Allocate Smartly, and a proposalHouse specification,
docs/research/model_library_proposal.md - The portfolio library: architectureHouse specification,
docs/research/portfolio_library.md - SIP studiesHouse specification,
docs/research/sip_studies_spec.md - Trend barometer (an ensemble)House specification,
docs/research/trend_barometer_spec.md - Calculations across the siteHouse specification,
docs/research/site_calculations_spec.md - Index trend and momentumHouse specification,
docs/research/trend_momentum_spec.md - Long-run performance of IPOs in IndiaResearch bench card,
research/papers/ipo_long_run/card.toml