Gold, G-secs, the rupee and the world, in rupees

7 of 14 are in uptrends and 7 in downtrends on 5 Oct 2026. Leading on momentum: Nasdaq-100, Nikkei 225 and Nasdaq Composite. Lagging: CAC 40 and Rupee. The longest-running trend is Rupee's downtrend, since June 2021.

Written for investors who hold more than Indian shares. Data to 5 Oct 2026.

Every member, ranked

Ranked by momentum against all 128 markets in the section. The trend score beside it says whether each is rising in its own right; the ring shows where its momentum stood 13 weeks ago. The four squares are the signals at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months: blue when 3 or 4 of the 4 point up, red when 0 or 1 do.

Ranked by momentum Trend score 0 to 100 Momentum rank ring: 13 weeks ago 1, 3, 6, 12 months

1Nasdaq-100Uptrend since Apr 2026 100 100

2Nikkei 225Uptrend since May 2025 100 99

3Nasdaq CompositeUptrend since Apr 2026 100 98

4S&P 500Uptrend since May 2025 100 98

5Dow Jones Industrial AverageUptrend since Jun 2025 46 91

6DAXDowntrend since Oct 2026 29 79

7GoldUptrend since Aug 2026 33 79

8Shanghai CompositeDowntrend since Jul 2026 17 77

9G-sec 5-yearDowntrend since Sep 2026 13 76

10FTSE 100Uptrend since Apr 2025 33 74

11S&P/ASX 200Downtrend since Oct 2026 33 73

12Hang SengDowntrend since Sep 2026 4 63

13RupeeDowntrend since Jun 2021 0 57

14CAC 40Downtrend since Sep 2026 8 12

Table view

Market	Group	Trend	Trend score	Momentum, in family	Momentum, overall	3 months over cash	12 months over cash	Launched
Nasdaq-100	Global, in rupees	Uptrend since Apr 2026	100	1	1	+4.2%	+31.0%	–
Nikkei 225	Global, in rupees	Uptrend since May 2025	100	2	2	+2.6%	+47.6%	–
Nasdaq Composite	Global, in rupees	Uptrend since Apr 2026	100	3	3	+4.8%	+26.2%	–
S&P 500	Global, in rupees	Uptrend since May 2025	100	4	4	+2.7%	+21.0%	–
Dow Jones Industrial Average	Global, in rupees	Uptrend since Jun 2025	46	5	13	−3.7%	+14.7%	–
DAX	Global, in rupees	Downtrend since Oct 2026	29	6	27	−4.2%	+5.3%	–
Gold	Gold, G-secs and the rupee	Uptrend since Aug 2026	33	6	27	+0.6%	+23.8%	–
Shanghai Composite	Global, in rupees	Downtrend since Jul 2026	17	8	31	−4.4%	+8.3%	–
G-sec 5-year	Gold, G-secs and the rupee	Downtrend since Sep 2026	13	9	32	−2.0%	−1.8%	–
FTSE 100	Global, in rupees	Uptrend since Apr 2025	33	10	34	−3.2%	+14.8%	–
S&P/ASX 200	Global, in rupees	Downtrend since Oct 2026	33	11	36	−1.6%	+7.7%	–
Hang Seng	Global, in rupees	Downtrend since Sep 2026	4	12	48	+1.2%	−7.7%	–
Rupee	Gold, G-secs and the rupee	Downtrend since Jun 2021	0	13	56	−2.2%	−12.8%	–
CAC 40	Global, in rupees	Downtrend since Sep 2026	8	14	114	−9.7%	−1.4%	–

How broad

The share of the family in an uptrend, week by week. Each member counts only from its launch date.

Family	1 month	3 months	6 months	12 months
Other assets14 markets	29% up71% down	29% up64% down	36% up43% down	64% up29% down

Other assets: share in an uptrend, week by week

Weekly, from 2002, when the family first had five members counted; the 13-week average in bold.

How to read it. Today 50% of the family is in an uptrend. Long stretches near the top or bottom are the family moving as one; time spent in the middle means its members are going separate ways.

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Source: NSE total-return indices (niftyindices); World Gold Council (gold in rupees); NSE 5-year G-sec index; ECB reference rates (the rupee, and overseas indices in rupees); overseas index closes as in docs/methods/world.md.

Method JSON

Regime history

Every member's uptrends (blue) and downtrends (red) since its history begins, sorted with today's uptrends first, longest-running at the top.

Other assets: regimes since 1996

Weekly readings. Blank: before the first trend was established.

How to read it. Read across a row for one market's story; read down for one moment across the family. Long single-colour columns are markets moving together; a patchwork is a family going separate ways.

UptrendDowntrendBefore launch (back-calculated)

FTSE 100

Nikkei 225

S&P 500

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Nasdaq Composite

Nasdaq-100

Gold

Rupee

Shanghai Composite

Hang Seng

CAC 40

G-sec 5-year

DAX

S&P/ASX 200

Is leadership rotating?

Of the 3 members with the strongest momentum 26 weeks ago, 1 is still among the top 3 today (Nikkei 225). Leadership has partly turned over. In the ranked list above, a long line from ring to dot is a market whose momentum has moved a long way in 13 weeks.

Then: Nikkei 225, S&P/ASX 200, FTSE 100. Now: Nasdaq-100, Nikkei 225, Nasdaq Composite.

How to read this

Gold is the domestic price including import duty, which is what gold ETFs track. The G-sec index is NSE's 5-year benchmark bond index with interest reinvested. The rupee is US dollars per rupee, so a rising rupee reads as an uptrend.

Overseas indices are converted to rupees at ECB reference rates, so they include the currency's move, as an Indian investor would see it. They are price indices without dividends (the DAX is the exception), which costs them roughly one to four points a year (their dividend yields) against the Indian total-return indices in the momentum ranking. Their providers' licences allow derived statistics only, so their pages show no growth curve.

Trend asks whether a market is rising; momentum asks whether it is rising faster than the others. Both look back over the same horizons: 1, 3, 6 and 12 months. Every market is measured on its return above a liquid fund (the 91-day T-bill), so an index that only keeps pace with cash is not trending.

The trend score is the share of 24 signals that point up: four ways of asking whether a price is trending (above where it was, above its average, a short average above a long one, in the top half of its range), each at six horizons from one month to a year. 100 means all agree it is rising; 0 that all agree it is falling.

Uptrend and downtrend. Read once a week, a market enters an uptrend when its score reaches 70 (17 of 24 signals up) and stays in it until the score falls to 30 or below, when it enters a downtrend. "Uptrend since March 2026" means the score first reached 70 in March and has not fallen to 30 since. The gap between the two lines keeps a market from flipping every other week.

Describing is not forecasting. In our pre-registered tests no trend or momentum rule on indices beat buying and holding by more than luck would explain, and after tax every rule trailed on the large-cap indices. What the rules did reliably was cut the worst falls. What the tests found. Many indices are back-calculated by NSE before their launch; their pages say so and draw that history lighter.

The workings

Method

How trend, momentum and regimes are measured

Data

Every chart has a table view, a CSV download and a link to its published JSON. Bundles are listed in data status.