How much do India's first GDP estimates change?

Output and GDP, first published and now

Each line runs from the figure MoSPI first published on the new base to today's. Only three quarters, from Q3 FY26, have a true first estimate on the new base; for earlier quarters the first new-base figure came in February 2026, long after their first estimate on the old base. Even those were revised later, by 0.3 points on average for output growth.

By sector

The total hides larger moves underneath. Across the sectors of the quarters revised since their first estimate, the average revision was 1.5 points. The largest: mining in Q4 FY26, from 5.4% to −2.9%, and manufacturing in Q3 FY26, from 13.3% to 9.0%.

What it means

Read a first estimate as a range, not a point. So far on the new base the headline has moved by up to 0.8 points after its first estimate and a sector by up to 8.3 points; MoSPI's early figures for a quarter rest partly on projections, which later data replace.

It also sets the bar for any nowcast. Ours is scored against the first estimate, because that is what is known on the day, but its models learn from the revised figures, which are the only long history there is. Part of any miss will be revision, not error, and there are too few first estimates on the new base yet to say how much.

The press notes

Our data store keeps only the latest figures, so the first estimates were read from MoSPI's press notes by hand. Each note's growth tables at constant prices were transcribed and checked against the levels where both exist.

• Press Note on new series of GDP estimates with base year 2022-23, 27 February 2026: newest quarter Q3 FY26, output growth 7.8%, GDP 7.8%.
• Press Note on Provisional Estimates of Annual GDP FY 2025-26 and Quarterly Estimates for Q4 FY 2025-26, 5 June 2026: newest quarter Q4 FY26, output growth 7.9%, GDP 7.8%.
• Press Note on Quarterly Estimates of GDP for Q1 of FY 2026-27, 31 August 2026: newest quarter Q1 FY27, output growth 8.2%, GDP 7.8%.