DossiersAnswer as of 7 Oct 2026
Downtrend
4 of every 100 trend rules I track vote up for the Nifty 500, which has returned −5.3% over three months and −4.1% over a year.
Of the seven measures that vote, one says up, four say down and two sit in between.
They disagree: the 10-month rule, Nifty Smallcap 250 is above its average, while the trend ensemble score, Nifty 500 is 4.
Each measure against its own history, strongest first. The bar runs from the lowest reading to the highest; the shaded part is the middle half. A measure votes up at or above the 70th percentile of its history and down at or below the 30th, unless its note says otherwise. Primary measures count double.
The answer above weighs the broad market. Follow each family below for its own trend rankings, momentum, regime history and path-quality comparisons.
Trend readings as of 7 Oct 2026. Counts cover each complete tracked family; quality tables lead with representative indices and retain the alternatives. Overlapping indices are not independent votes or diversification exposures.
| Family and quality view | Indices tracked | In uptrends | In downtrends | No established trend | More |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad market | 18 | 5 | 13 | 0 | |
| Sectors | 23 | 7 | 16 | 0 | |
| Themes | 41 | 4 | 37 | 0 | |
| Strategies and factors | 32 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
The Nifty 500's total return over three years, set to 100 at the start (log scale), and the average of its last ten month-ends, which the pre-registered 10-month rule uses: in when a month ends above the average, out when it ends below. Shaded months are those the rule was in. The rule is checked only at month-ends, so the price can cross the line in between without switching it.
Nifty 50010-month average
Source: NSE Indices total return series (dividends reinvested), rebased.
| Date | Nifty 500 | 10-month average |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | 133 | 136 |
| Sept 2026 | 139 | – |
| Aug 2026 | 142 | – |
| Jul 2026 | 139 | – |
| Jun 2026 | 139 | – |
| May 2026 | 135 | – |
| Apr 2026 | 136 | – |
| Mar 2026 | 123 | – |
| Feb 2026 | 140 | – |
| Jan 2026 | 138 | – |
| Dec 2025 | 141 | – |
| Dec 2025 | 142 | – |
| Nov 2025 | 141 | – |
| Oct 2025 | 138 | – |
| Sept 2025 | 137 | – |
| Aug 2025 | 135 | – |
| Jul 2025 | 139 | – |
| Jun 2025 | 136 | – |
| May 2025 | 134 | – |
| Apr 2025 | 131 | – |
| Mar 2025 | 127 | – |
| Feb 2025 | 122 | – |
| Jan 2025 | 124 | – |
| Jan 2025 | 133 | – |
| Dec 2024 | 136 | – |
| Nov 2024 | 134 | – |
| Oct 2024 | 139 | – |
| Sept 2024 | 139 | – |
| Aug 2024 | 134 | – |
| Jul 2024 | 136 | – |
| Jun 2024 | 131 | – |
| May 2024 | 126 | – |
| Apr 2024 | 122 | – |
| Mar 2024 | 117 | – |
| Feb 2024 | 119 | – |
| Jan 2024 | 116 | 101 |
| Jan 2024 | 113 | – |
| Dec 2023 | 109 | – |
| Nov 2023 | 101 | – |
| Oct 2023 | 102 | – |
Each square is one rule's vote for the Nifty 500 today: four kinds of trend signal at six horizons. Coloured squares vote up, grey ones down. The ensemble's score is the share voting up.
Source: NSE total-return indices; gold in rupees (WGC); NSE 5-year G-sec index; 91-day T-bill (RBI); rupee per dollar from ECB reference rates
| 1 month | 2 months | 3 months | 6 months | 9 months | 12 months | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past return | down | down | down | up | down | down |
| Price against its average | down | down | down | down | down | down |
| Average crossover | down | down | down | down | down | down |
| Position in its range | down | down | down | down | down | down |
The same 24-rule ensemble on the broad indices, every sector index, gold, 5-year G-secs and the rupee (for the rupee, up means more rupees per dollar). Bars are today's score; the black tick is a month ago. 60 or more counts as up, 40 or less as down.
up (60+)betweendown (40 or less)a month ago
Source: The trend barometer (NSE Indices total returns; gold in rupees; ECB reference rates).
| Score today | a month ago | |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty Media | 88 | 63 |
| Nifty Pharma | 58 | 96 |
| Nifty Smallcap 250 | 54 | 100 |
| Nifty MidSmall Healthcare | 54 | 83 |
| Nifty500 Healthcare | 50 | 83 |
| Nifty Healthcare | 46 | 75 |
| Nifty MidSmall IT & Telecom | 46 | 92 |
| Nifty Metal | 33 | 83 |
| Nifty MidSmall Financial Services | 29 | 88 |
| Nifty REITs & Realty | 29 | 63 |
| Nifty Midcap 150 | 21 | 67 |
| Gold | 21 | 67 |
| Nifty Realty | 21 | 63 |
| Nifty Auto | 17 | 63 |
| Nifty Consumer Durables | 17 | 71 |
| G-sec 5-year | 13 | 54 |
| Nifty Chemicals | 13 | 58 |
| Nifty Financial Services Ex-Bank | 13 | 63 |
| Nifty 500 | 4 | 42 |
| Nifty Bank | 4 | 29 |
| Nifty Private Bank | 4 | 54 |
| Nifty PSU Bank | 4 | 21 |
| Nifty 50 | 0 | 8 |
| Rupee (vs US dollar) | 0 | 54 |
| Nifty Cement | 0 | 8 |
| Nifty Financial Services | 0 | 13 |
| Nifty Financial Services 25/50 | 0 | 8 |
| Nifty FMCG | 0 | 0 |
| Nifty IT | 0 | 38 |
| Nifty Oil & Gas | 0 | 8 |
At each month-end, the share of NSE's indices (broad, sector, strategy and thematic, about 114 today) whose month-end is above their 10-month average. A broad uptrend has most indices in; a narrow one has a few. A year ago the share was 82%. The latest month is month to date.
Source: NSE Indices total return series (dividends reinvested)
| Date | Indices with the rule in |
|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | 30% |
| Mar 2026 | 4% |
| Aug 2025 | 78% |
| Jan 2025 | 10% |
| Jun 2024 | 99% |
| Nov 2023 | 100% |
| Apr 2023 | 74% |
| Sept 2022 | 78% |
| Feb 2022 | 45% |
| Jul 2021 | 100% |
| Dec 2020 | 100% |
| May 2020 | 4% |
| Oct 2019 | 74% |
| Mar 2019 | 81% |
| Aug 2018 | 77% |
| Jan 2018 | 99% |
| Jun 2017 | 94% |
| Nov 2016 | 81% |
| Apr 2016 | 72% |
| Sept 2015 | 37% |
| Feb 2015 | 94% |
| Jul 2014 | 100% |
| Dec 2013 | 97% |
| May 2013 | 71% |
| Oct 2012 | 93% |
| Mar 2012 | 88% |
| Aug 2011 | 7% |
| Jan 2011 | 23% |
| Jun 2010 | 94% |
| Nov 2009 | 100% |
| Apr 2009 | 61% |
| Sept 2008 | 0% |
| Feb 2008 | 74% |
| Jul 2007 | 96% |
| Dec 2006 | 98% |
| May 2006 | 89% |
| Oct 2005 | 93% |
| Mar 2005 | 100% |
Since 1996, sessions grouped by the ensemble score, today's band (0–20) in colour. Under each column, the number of independent three-month periods behind it. Read the differences between bands against the number of periods under each.
Source: The trend barometer's 'what happened next' table.
| Value | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0–20 | +4.3% | 52 periods |
| 20–40 | +3.5% | 64 periods |
| 40–60 | +2.1% | 75 periods |
| 60–80 | +3.8% | 76 periods |
| 80–100 | +4.9% | 76 periods |
| All sessions | +4.1% | 120 periods |
Since 1996, sessions grouped by the ensemble score, today's band (0–20) in colour. Under each column, the number of independent one-year periods behind it. Read the differences between bands against the number of periods under each.
Source: The trend barometer's 'what happened next' table.
| Value | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0–20 | +14.1% | 20 periods |
| 20–40 | +9.7% | 23 periods |
| 40–60 | +7.8% | 26 periods |
| 60–80 | +11.6% | 25 periods |
| 80–100 | +13.9% | 25 periods |
| All sessions | +12.1% | 30 periods |
Descriptive, not a test
Since 1996, when the ensemble score was in today's band (0–20), the Nifty 500's median return over the next three months was +4.3% (positive 64% of the time, about 52 independent periods) and over the next year +14.1% (about 20 independent periods). Across all bands the one-year medians ran from +7.8% to +14.1%. With this few independent periods the differences between bands are not a forecast.
Failed its pre-registered test
Investing in the Nifty 500 only when the ensemble said up returned 13.8% a year from 1996, against 13.9% for holding throughout, before tax. Its worst fall was −33% against −67%. After allowing for the 84 variants tried, the edge over holding is not significant (deflated Sharpe 0.02; 0.95 is the bar). The ensemble did pass its robustness test: it was the least regrettable choice among the single rules.
Failed its pre-registered test
The score did not improve forecasts of a 10% fall or of next month's volatility beyond trailing volatility, the US VIX and the 200-day rule (p = 0.77 for a 10% fall).
Failed its pre-registered test
From 1995 the 10-month rule on the Nifty 500 returned 11.6% a year against 13.2% for holding, with a worst fall of −45% against −67%; after counting trials, the edge is not significant (deflated Sharpe 0.01).
It would take two measures moving a step each to make the answer “No clear trend”.
One measure moving a step would make the answer “Strong downtrend”: 10-month rule, Nifty Smallcap 250.
The Nifty 500 is 2.8% below its 10-month average. The rule is checked at each month-end, so a month-end above that average would switch it.
the usual range: the middle half of all readingstodayEach line runs from the lowest reading ever to the highest.
How these answers are made: the dossier method. Historical research, not investment advice.