EconomyHouseholds
What do households say about the economy, jobs and prices?
In September 2026, urban households were negative on two of the six questions RBI asks besides prices, most of all on the general economic situation (net −29.3). Rural households answered more favourably than urban ones on three of them.
Written for anyone who wants to know how Indian households feel, and how much that tells us. Survey round September 2026.
Now against a year ago
Each answer is a net response: the share of households saying better (or more) less the share saying worse (or less). On spending, a large positive figure mostly means spending has gone up because prices have; on non-essentials it is a better guide to appetite, at +4.6 in cities and +39.3 in villages.
What households say compared with a year ago, September 2026
Net response, % of households: better less worse. For the price level it is fell less rose, so it is negative when prices rose.
How to read it. Left of zero, more households say worse than better. The price line sits far left because almost everyone says prices rose; that is the normal state in India, not a crisis.
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A year ahead
Asked about a year from now, households turn hopeful: urban households' net response on income was +45.8 and on jobs +11.7. That gap between a gloomy present and a hopeful future is a constant of the survey, so the useful signal is how each answer moves.
What households expect a year ahead, September 2026
Net response, % of households: will improve less will worsen.
How to read it. Compare these with the chart above: the same households, a year on in their minds.
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Over time
Urban households' net view of jobs now against a year ago was −21.6 in September 2026, and of their income +3.9. The jobs answer was last at or above zero in March 2019. The lockdowns sent every answer to its floor.
Urban households' net responses, now against a year ago
% better less % worse, each survey round from 2012. One scale for all four panels.
How to read it. Zero is the line where as many say better as worse. Watch the turns more than the levels.
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Inflation as they see it
Urban households put current inflation at 8.4% and expected 10.0% a year ahead in September 2026 (median answers). Rural households, asked in a different survey, said 6.8% and 7.9%. Official CPI inflation was 4.8% in August 2026. The Prices pages test how far households' expectations miss.
Inflation households perceive and expect, urban and rural
Median answer in each RBI round, from 2022. Urban: the Inflation Expectations Survey; rural: the rural confidence survey.
How to read it. Two surveys with different samples and questions: compare each line's direction, not urban against rural levels.
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Does mood predict spending?
Before computing anything we wrote down a test (C85 in the pre-registration log): use the change in urban confidence over a year, alongside last quarter's consumption growth, to forecast this quarter's. 39 quarters were usable from July 2013, the lockdowns left out, and 23 were forecast out of sample from July 2017.
Household consumption growth and three forecasts
Real PFCE growth on a year earlier; each forecast fitted on earlier quarters only.
How to read it. The forecasts cluster together, and confidence does not pull its line closer to the outcome.
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The result. Typical forecast errors: 1.67 points for last quarter's figure, 1.69 for a line fitted on it, 1.72 with confidence added. The difference is well within chance (p 0.71). We predicted that confidence would add nothing out of sample, and it did not; we also predicted a modest correlation in hindsight, and the rank correlation of the change in confidence with consumption growth was only 0.14, below the range we expected. The level of confidence lines up better (0.46): mood follows the cycle broadly but does not mark its turns.
What it means. The survey says how people feel. It is worth reading for that, and for its detail on jobs, prices and income, but not as an early reading of consumption.
The workings
The question
Data
Every chart has a table view, a CSV download and a link to its published JSON. Bundles are listed in data status.