EconomyJobs and incomes
Are formal payrolls growing?
ESIC registered 141.4 lakh new workers in the twelve months to July 2026, 11.9% fewer than a year before. EPFO's last published twelve months, to July 2025, added 154.1 lakh net subscribers; its monthly releases stopped after that.
Written for anyone who wants to know whether India is adding formal jobs. ESIC to July 2026.
Twelve-month totals
EPFO covers establishments with 20 or more workers; ESIC covers lower-paid employees of covered firms. Both count enrolments, net of exits for EPFO, so a job moved from informal to formal counts as much as a new one. Twelve-month totals smooth their seasonal swings and EPFO's large revisions.
Formal payroll additions, twelve-month totals
Rolling twelve-month sums. EPFO's line ends in July 2025; ESIC is missing February and March 2024 at source.
How to read it. EPFO's figure is net (joiners less leavers plus rejoiners); ESIC's is new registrations only, so the two are not on the same footing.
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Who joins
People aged 18 to 25 were 46% of EPFO's net additions in the twelve months to July 2025, and women 21%. Women were 26% of ESIC's new workers in the twelve months to July 2026, against 23% a year earlier.
Who joins formal payrolls
Share of twelve-month additions, %.
How to read it. A high share of young joiners means formal payrolls grow mostly by first jobs. ESIC has no age split in the data held.
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Salary credits are not jobs
NACH bulk credits are how employers pay salaries, but also how pensions, dividends and interest reach bank accounts. They grew 16.3% over the twelve months to September 2026. Before looking, we wrote down a test (C87): do their three-month totals track EPFO's net new subscribers? Over 40 months the correlation was −0.36 (p 0.59); with ESIC's new workers, −0.24 over 44 months.
NACH bulk credits and formal hiring
Three-month totals, growth on a year earlier, from April 2022.
How to read it. The lines do not move together. NACH credits grow with pay, prices and investment income; payroll additions with hiring.
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The result. The test does not pass, as we predicted, and the correlation even runs the wrong way, within what chance allows. NACH credits measure money flowing into households' accounts; they say nothing about how many people found jobs.
The workings
The question
Data
Every chart has a table view, a CSV download and a link to its published JSON. Bundles are listed in data status.