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What did a monthly SIP actually deliver?

Rs 10,000 a month in the Nifty 500, started in any month from Apr 2005 and held ten years, returned a median 12.8% a year after costs and tax; the worst start, Apr 2010, made 3.4%. Over five years the spread was far wider, and 8% of windows did worse than fixed deposits. These are overlapping windows from one history, with only 2 independent ten-year periods, so they describe the past rather than give odds.

Written for SIP investors and the advisers who explain SIPs to them. Data to 1 Oct 2026.

What a SIP delivered

Each portfolio was run as Rs 10,000 a month, bought at the first session of each month, held for a fixed number of years and then sold in full, after fund costs and tax (with the annual equity exemption on, since a small investor is who it is for). Every start month from Apr 2005 is one window. Windows a month apart share almost all their months, so read the independent periods before reading any percentile.

Historical research on index portfolios, not investment advice. Returns are after fund costs; 'after tax' applies Indian capital-gains rules by date for a 30% slab investor and sells everything at the end. Most factor, mid-cap and small-cap index history before each index's launch date is back-tested by NSE. One 21-year sample, domestic assets only. The fixed-deposit comparison uses a proxy: 364-day T-bill primary yield (91-day before April 2005), after slab tax and cess each year.

Five years

After-tax XIRR across start months, per cent a year. 'Below FD' and 'below inflation' are shares of overlapping windows, not probabilities. Click a name for that portfolio's own SIP chart.
PortfolioWindowsIndependent periods5th pctMedian95th pctWorst (start)Below FDBelow inflationMore
Nifty Midcap 15019943.6%17.9%28.0%−8.1% (2015-04)9%17%
Four-factor blend19946.2%16.2%25.4%−4.9% (2015-04)3%4%
Nifty Smallcap 2501994−2.9%16.7%30.2%−17.8% (2015-04)23%28%
Nifty 50019944.0%13.4%20.0%−6.1% (2015-04)8%20%
Nifty 5019944.3%12.2%17.6%−4.7% (2015-04)7%19%
60/20/2019947.4%11.4%16.6%1.1% (2015-04)2%11%
60/4019945.5%11.2%14.9%0.6% (2015-04)4%20%
Equal thirds19946.6%10.5%15.8%4.5% (2015-04)1%8%
All Weather (Indian approximation)19947.2%9.6%12.7%4.5% (2015-04)1%16%
Permanent portfolio19946.6%9.3%13.5%4.7% (2015-04)0%7%
Dual momentum19943.2%8.9%18.9%1.5% (2014-05)11%21%
GTAA (10-month trend)19944.3%8.1%13.8%3.3% (2014-05)12%17%

Ten years

As above, ten-year SIPs.
PortfolioWindowsIndependent periods5th pctMedian95th pctWorst (start)Below FDBelow inflationMore
Nifty Midcap 150139211.5%16.9%19.9%5.2% (2010-04)0%1%
Four-factor blend139210.2%15.3%18.2%5.6% (2010-04)0%0%
Nifty Smallcap 25013926.7%14.5%19.0%−1.1% (2010-04)3%4%
Nifty 50013929.1%12.8%15.6%3.4% (2010-04)1%1%
Nifty 5013928.5%12.0%14.5%3.4% (2010-04)1%1%
60/20/2013929.0%11.1%13.7%5.6% (2010-04)0%0%
60/4013929.0%10.9%12.5%5.9% (2010-04)0%0%
Equal thirds13928.1%9.8%13.5%6.5% (2010-04)0%0%
All Weather (Indian approximation)13928.5%9.6%10.9%6.9% (2010-04)0%0%
Permanent portfolio13927.9%9.1%11.4%6.6% (2010-04)0%0%
Dual momentum13926.7%8.9%15.4%6.2% (2013-11)0%1%
GTAA (10-month trend)13925.7%7.8%10.7%5.4% (2009-08)0%0%

A mix shrank the bad tail more than the middle. At five years, 60/20/20's 5th percentile was 7.4% against 4.0% for the Nifty 500, for a median 2.0 points lower.

All 136 portfolios at ten years
Ten-year SIPs, sorted by median after-tax XIRR. Click a column to re-sort.
PortfolioWindowsIndependent periods5th pctMedian95th pctWorst (start)Below FDBelow inflationMore
Momentum (Nifty500 Momentum 50)139215.8%19.5%24.0%11.5% (2010-04)0%0%
Alpha (Nifty Alpha 50)139214.2%18.7%25.3%9.1% (2010-04)0%0%
Momentum (Nifty200 Momentum 30)139213.8%17.8%22.0%11.9% (2016-10)0%0%
Multi-factor (Nifty500 Multifactor MQVLv 50)139212.6%16.9%21.3%8.6% (2010-04)0%0%
Nifty Midcap 150139211.5%16.9%19.9%5.2% (2010-04)0%1%
Value and momentum13928.7%15.9%20.8%3.4% (2010-04)1%1%
Multi-factor (Nifty Alpha Quality Value Low-Volatility 30)139212.4%15.8%18.8%8.3% (2010-04)0%0%
Four-factor blend139210.2%15.3%18.2%5.6% (2010-04)0%0%
Quality (Nifty500 Quality 50)139210.9%14.8%19.0%6.5% (2010-04)0%0%
Nifty Smallcap 25013926.7%14.5%19.0%−1.1% (2010-04)3%4%
Nifty 500 + 30% momentum139211.0%14.4%17.5%6.1% (2010-04)0%0%
Nifty Next 50139210.6%14.3%18.5%6.1% (2010-04)0%0%
Quality and low volatility139210.8%14.3%17.6%7.4% (2010-04)0%0%
Low volatility (Nifty Low Volatility 50)139211.2%14.2%17.1%7.7% (2010-04)0%0%
Low volatility (Nifty500 Low Volatility 50)139211.5%14.2%16.5%7.4% (2010-04)0%0%
Quality (Nifty200 Quality 30)139210.6%14.1%19.3%8.0% (2010-04)0%0%
Nifty500 Multicap 50:25:2513929.4%14.0%16.7%3.0% (2010-04)1%1%
Value (Nifty500 Value 50)13920.9%14.0%21.1%−5.0% (2010-04)11%12%
Low volatility (Nifty100 Low Volatility 30)139211.0%13.9%16.5%6.7% (2010-04)0%0%
Nifty500 Equal Weight13926.0%13.9%17.6%−1.1% (2010-04)3%4%
Nifty 500 + 30% quality139210.2%13.3%15.6%4.9% (2010-04)1%1%
Nifty 500 + 30% low volatility13929.9%13.2%15.5%4.5% (2010-04)1%1%
Nifty 500 + 30% value13926.8%13.0%17.2%0.8% (2010-04)2%4%
Defensive asset allocation (DAA)13928.4%12.9%16.2%6.3% (2010-04)0%0%
Nifty100 Equal Weight13927.5%12.8%15.4%1.8% (2010-04)1%1%
100% Nifty 500 / 0% G-sec13929.1%12.8%15.6%3.4% (2010-04)1%1%
100/0/0 equity / G-sec / gold13929.1%12.8%15.6%3.4% (2010-04)1%1%
Nifty 50013929.1%12.8%15.6%3.4% (2010-04)1%1%
90/0/10 equity / G-sec / gold13929.2%12.6%15.1%4.0% (2010-04)1%1%
Nifty 10013929.3%12.4%14.7%3.9% (2010-04)1%1%
CPPI13927.5%12.3%15.6%3.2% (2010-04)1%4%
90% Nifty 500 / 10% G-sec13929.3%12.3%14.8%4.2% (2010-04)1%1%
90/10/0 equity / G-sec / gold13929.3%12.3%14.8%4.2% (2010-04)1%1%
80/10/10 equity / G-sec / gold13929.1%12.2%14.3%4.7% (2010-04)1%1%
80/0/20 equity / G-sec / gold13929.0%12.1%15.6%4.5% (2010-04)1%1%
Nifty 5013928.5%12.0%14.5%3.4% (2010-04)1%1%
80% Nifty 500 / 20% G-sec13929.2%11.9%14.0%4.9% (2010-04)1%1%
80/20/0 equity / G-sec / gold13929.2%11.9%14.0%4.9% (2010-04)1%1%
Value (Nifty200 Value 30)1392−0.4%11.7%21.0%−6.7% (2010-04)14%15%
70/20/10 equity / G-sec / gold13929.0%11.7%13.6%5.3% (2010-04)0%1%
70/10/20 equity / G-sec / gold13929.0%11.6%14.7%5.1% (2010-04)0%1%
70/0/30 equity / G-sec / gold13928.9%11.6%15.6%4.9% (2010-04)1%1%
Endowment-style (Indian approximation)13928.9%11.6%13.8%6.1% (2010-04)0%0%
Nifty50 Equal Weight13925.7%11.5%15.1%−0.6% (2010-04)4%5%
70% Nifty 500 / 30% G-sec13929.1%11.4%13.3%5.4% (2010-04)0%0%
70/30/0 equity / G-sec / gold13929.1%11.4%13.3%5.4% (2010-04)0%0%
Protective asset allocation (PAA2)13928.1%11.2%13.8%7.7% (2010-04)0%0%
60/0/40 equity / G-sec / gold13928.5%11.1%16.3%5.3% (2010-04)0%0%
60/30/10 equity / G-sec / gold13928.9%11.1%12.8%5.7% (2010-04)0%0%
60/20/20 equity / G-sec / gold13929.0%11.1%13.7%5.6% (2010-04)0%0%
60/20/2013929.0%11.1%13.7%5.6% (2010-04)0%0%
60/10/30 equity / G-sec / gold13928.8%11.1%14.9%5.5% (2010-04)0%0%
Black-Litterman, no views13929.0%11.0%12.6%5.9% (2010-04)0%0%
Vigilant asset allocation (VAA-G4)13928.0%10.9%12.9%7.1% (2010-04)0%0%
60% Nifty 500 / 40% G-sec13929.0%10.9%12.5%5.9% (2010-04)0%0%
60/40/0 equity / G-sec / gold13929.0%10.9%12.5%5.9% (2010-04)0%0%
60/4013929.0%10.9%12.5%5.9% (2010-04)0%0%
Three-fund (domestic version)13929.0%10.9%12.5%5.9% (2010-04)0%0%
50/0/50 equity / G-sec / gold13928.1%10.9%17.0%5.6% (2010-04)0%0%
Golden butterfly13928.1%10.8%12.7%5.8% (2010-04)0%0%
50/10/40 equity / G-sec / gold13928.4%10.7%15.6%5.8% (2010-04)0%0%
50/20/30 equity / G-sec / gold13928.6%10.6%14.2%5.9% (2010-04)0%0%
50/30/20 equity / G-sec / gold13928.8%10.6%12.9%6.1% (2010-04)0%0%
50/40/10 equity / G-sec / gold13928.9%10.6%12.0%6.2% (2010-04)0%0%
40/0/60 equity / G-sec / gold13927.3%10.4%17.9%5.8% (2010-04)0%0%
Valuation glide (CAPE)13928.6%10.4%12.2%7.8% (2016-10)0%0%
50% Nifty 500 / 50% G-sec13928.9%10.4%11.8%6.3% (2010-04)0%0%
50/50/0 equity / G-sec / gold13928.9%10.4%11.8%6.3% (2010-04)0%0%
40/10/50 equity / G-sec / gold13927.7%10.3%16.4%6.0% (2010-04)0%0%
40/20/40 equity / G-sec / gold13928.1%10.2%14.9%6.2% (2010-04)0%0%
Volatility-managed equity13926.1%10.2%13.0%3.8% (2010-04)3%11%
40/40/20 equity / G-sec / gold13928.6%10.1%12.1%6.5% (2010-04)0%0%
40/30/30 equity / G-sec / gold13928.4%10.1%13.5%6.3% (2010-04)0%0%
40/50/10 equity / G-sec / gold13928.8%10.1%11.2%6.6% (2010-04)0%0%
Valuation glide (yield gap)13928.2%10.1%11.2%6.8% (2010-04)0%0%
40% Nifty 500 / 60% G-sec13928.7%9.8%10.9%6.7% (2010-04)0%0%
40/60/0 equity / G-sec / gold13928.7%9.8%10.9%6.7% (2010-04)0%0%
Equal thirds13928.1%9.8%13.5%6.5% (2010-04)0%0%
30/0/70 equity / G-sec / gold13926.5%9.8%18.3%6.0% (2009-05)0%0%
30/20/50 equity / G-sec / gold13927.3%9.7%15.8%6.4% (2010-04)0%0%
1/N (monthly)13928.1%9.7%13.4%6.5% (2010-04)0%0%
30/10/60 equity / G-sec / gold13926.8%9.7%17.0%6.2% (2010-04)0%0%
30/30/40 equity / G-sec / gold13927.7%9.6%14.3%6.5% (2010-04)0%0%
All Weather (Indian approximation)13928.5%9.6%10.9%6.9% (2010-04)0%0%
30/60/10 equity / G-sec / gold13928.5%9.6%10.4%7.0% (2010-04)0%0%
Ensemble: equal weight of models13927.9%9.6%10.9%6.7% (2010-04)0%0%
30/50/20 equity / G-sec / gold13928.3%9.6%11.4%6.8% (2010-04)0%0%
30/40/30 equity / G-sec / gold13928.1%9.6%12.8%6.7% (2010-04)0%0%
Bold asset allocation (BAA-G4)13927.7%9.5%11.0%7.3% (2013-04)0%0%
30% Nifty 500 / 70% G-sec13928.3%9.3%10.2%7.1% (2010-04)0%0%
30/70/0 equity / G-sec / gold13928.3%9.3%10.2%7.1% (2010-04)0%0%
20/0/80 equity / G-sec / gold13925.8%9.2%18.6%5.1% (2009-05)1%3%
60/40 with trend13926.8%9.2%10.8%6.4% (2016-10)0%0%
20/10/70 equity / G-sec / gold13926.2%9.1%17.4%5.6% (2009-05)0%0%
20/30/50 equity / G-sec / gold13926.9%9.1%14.9%6.5% (2009-05)0%0%
20/20/60 equity / G-sec / gold13926.6%9.1%16.2%6.0% (2009-05)0%0%
Permanent portfolio13927.9%9.1%11.4%6.6% (2010-04)0%0%
Ensemble: inverse volatility of models13927.8%9.0%9.8%6.9% (2010-04)0%0%
20/60/20 equity / G-sec / gold13927.9%9.0%10.7%7.1% (2010-04)0%0%
20/40/40 equity / G-sec / gold13927.3%9.0%13.6%6.8% (2010-04)0%0%
20/50/30 equity / G-sec / gold13927.6%9.0%12.1%7.0% (2010-04)0%0%
20/70/10 equity / G-sec / gold13928.1%9.0%9.5%7.3% (2010-04)0%0%
Dual momentum13926.7%8.9%15.4%6.2% (2013-11)0%1%
20% Nifty 500 / 80% G-sec13927.7%8.7%9.5%7.1% (2016-10)0%0%
20/80/0 equity / G-sec / gold13927.7%8.7%9.5%7.1% (2016-10)0%0%
10/0/90 equity / G-sec / gold13924.8%8.5%19.0%4.0% (2009-05)9%20%
10/10/80 equity / G-sec / gold13925.3%8.5%17.7%4.6% (2009-05)5%14%
10/30/60 equity / G-sec / gold13926.0%8.5%15.2%5.5% (2009-05)0%1%
10/40/50 equity / G-sec / gold13926.4%8.5%14.0%6.0% (2009-05)0%0%
10/70/20 equity / G-sec / gold13927.4%8.5%9.9%7.2% (2008-10)0%0%
10/20/70 equity / G-sec / gold13925.6%8.4%16.4%5.1% (2009-05)1%7%
Inverse volatility13927.6%8.4%9.0%7.4% (2013-03)0%0%
10/60/30 equity / G-sec / gold13927.1%8.4%11.4%6.9% (2009-05)0%0%
10/50/40 equity / G-sec / gold13926.8%8.4%12.8%6.5% (2009-05)0%0%
Equal risk contribution13927.4%8.4%8.9%7.2% (2012-10)0%0%
10/80/10 equity / G-sec / gold13927.5%8.3%8.8%7.3% (2013-03)0%0%
Maximum diversification13927.3%8.2%8.9%7.0% (2010-04)0%0%
10% Nifty 500 / 90% G-sec13927.1%8.1%8.8%6.4% (2016-10)0%2%
10/90/0 equity / G-sec / gold13927.1%8.1%8.8%6.4% (2016-10)0%2%
GTAA (10-month trend)13925.7%7.8%10.7%5.4% (2009-08)0%0%
0/20/80 equity / G-sec / gold13924.5%7.7%16.9%4.0% (2009-05)11%25%
0/40/60 equity / G-sec / gold13925.4%7.7%14.3%5.0% (2009-05)4%17%
0/0/100 equity / G-sec / gold13923.5%7.7%19.3%2.9% (2009-05)18%29%
0/10/90 equity / G-sec / gold13924.0%7.7%18.1%3.5% (2009-05)16%27%
0/30/70 equity / G-sec / gold13924.9%7.6%15.6%4.5% (2009-05)7%22%
0/50/50 equity / G-sec / gold13925.8%7.6%13.0%5.5% (2009-05)0%10%
Minimum variance13927.0%7.6%8.4%6.7% (2016-10)0%8%
0/70/30 equity / G-sec / gold13926.4%7.6%10.4%6.2% (2008-10)0%6%
0/60/40 equity / G-sec / gold13926.2%7.5%11.7%5.9% (2008-09)0%7%
0/80/20 equity / G-sec / gold13926.7%7.5%9.0%6.5% (2008-10)0%7%
Hierarchical risk parity13926.5%7.5%8.4%6.1% (2016-10)0%7%
0/90/10 equity / G-sec / gold13926.6%7.5%8.3%6.5% (2012-10)0%8%
0% Nifty 500 / 100% G-sec13926.1%7.4%8.3%5.7% (2016-10)0%9%
0/100/0 equity / G-sec / gold13926.1%7.4%8.3%5.7% (2016-10)0%9%
Mean-variance (shrunk covariance)13925.8%6.9%10.3%5.5% (2012-07)0%12%
High beta (Nifty High Beta 50)1392−6.3%4.6%14.4%−16.6% (2010-04)50%55%

When you started

Pick a portfolio to see every 10-year SIP it ran, by start month, against the same instalments in fixed deposits. The 12 shown are the headline set used for the refinements below; every other portfolio's chart is on its own page.

Nifty Midcap 150: 10-year SIP by start month

After-tax XIRR of each of 139 windows. Grey: the same instalments in one-year fixed deposits, interest taxed each year.

How to read it. Each point is a whole 10-year SIP. The median was 16.9% and the worst start 2010-04 (5.2%); 0% of windows finished below the FD line. Neighbouring points share most of their months: there are only 2 independent 10-year periods here.

per cent a year, after tax

Nifty Midcap 150 SIPFixed-deposit SIP
201020150%5%10%15%20%25%15.4%4.1%
The latest window started in Oct 2016: ₹12,00,000 in, ₹26,92,754 out after tax (₹14,81,288 in FDs).
Source: tipsheet portfolio lab, computed from NSE total-return indices, the NSE 5-year benchmark G-sec index, domestic gold in rupees (World Gold Council), the 91-day T-bill yield and the 364-day T-bill as the FD proxy, with all-India CPI.
MethodEvery horizonJSON

Four-factor blend: 10-year SIP by start month

After-tax XIRR of each of 139 windows. Grey: the same instalments in one-year fixed deposits, interest taxed each year.

How to read it. Each point is a whole 10-year SIP. The median was 15.3% and the worst start 2010-04 (5.6%); 0% of windows finished below the FD line. Neighbouring points share most of their months: there are only 2 independent 10-year periods here.

per cent a year, after tax

Four-factor blend SIPFixed-deposit SIP
201020150%5%10%15%20%12.4%4.1%
The latest window started in Oct 2016: ₹12,00,000 in, ₹22,85,725 out after tax (₹14,81,288 in FDs).
Source: tipsheet portfolio lab, computed from NSE total-return indices, the NSE 5-year benchmark G-sec index, domestic gold in rupees (World Gold Council), the 91-day T-bill yield and the 364-day T-bill as the FD proxy, with all-India CPI.
MethodEvery horizonJSON

Nifty Smallcap 250: 10-year SIP by start month

After-tax XIRR of each of 139 windows. Grey: the same instalments in one-year fixed deposits, interest taxed each year.

How to read it. Each point is a whole 10-year SIP. The median was 14.5% and the worst start 2010-04 (−1.1%); 3% of windows finished below the FD line. Neighbouring points share most of their months: there are only 2 independent 10-year periods here.

per cent a year, after tax

Nifty Smallcap 250 SIPFixed-deposit SIP
20102015−10%0%10%20%30%14.9%4.1%
The latest window started in Oct 2016: ₹12,00,000 in, ₹26,21,784 out after tax (₹14,81,288 in FDs).
Source: tipsheet portfolio lab, computed from NSE total-return indices, the NSE 5-year benchmark G-sec index, domestic gold in rupees (World Gold Council), the 91-day T-bill yield and the 364-day T-bill as the FD proxy, with all-India CPI.
MethodEvery horizonJSON

Nifty 500: 10-year SIP by start month

After-tax XIRR of each of 139 windows. Grey: the same instalments in one-year fixed deposits, interest taxed each year.

How to read it. Each point is a whole 10-year SIP. The median was 12.8% and the worst start 2010-04 (3.4%); 1% of windows finished below the FD line. Neighbouring points share most of their months: there are only 2 independent 10-year periods here.

per cent a year, after tax

Nifty 500 SIPFixed-deposit SIP
201020150%5%10%15%20%11.0%4.1%
The latest window started in Oct 2016: ₹12,00,000 in, ₹21,25,849 out after tax (₹14,81,288 in FDs).
Source: tipsheet portfolio lab, computed from NSE total-return indices, the NSE 5-year benchmark G-sec index, domestic gold in rupees (World Gold Council), the 91-day T-bill yield and the 364-day T-bill as the FD proxy, with all-India CPI.
MethodEvery horizonJSON

Nifty 50: 10-year SIP by start month

After-tax XIRR of each of 139 windows. Grey: the same instalments in one-year fixed deposits, interest taxed each year.

How to read it. Each point is a whole 10-year SIP. The median was 12.0% and the worst start 2010-04 (3.4%); 1% of windows finished below the FD line. Neighbouring points share most of their months: there are only 2 independent 10-year periods here.

per cent a year, after tax

Nifty 50 SIPFixed-deposit SIP
201020150%5%10%15%20%9.0%4.1%
The latest window started in Oct 2016: ₹12,00,000 in, ₹19,14,023 out after tax (₹14,81,288 in FDs).
Source: tipsheet portfolio lab, computed from NSE total-return indices, the NSE 5-year benchmark G-sec index, domestic gold in rupees (World Gold Council), the 91-day T-bill yield and the 364-day T-bill as the FD proxy, with all-India CPI.
MethodEvery horizonJSON

60/20/20: 10-year SIP by start month

After-tax XIRR of each of 139 windows. Grey: the same instalments in one-year fixed deposits, interest taxed each year.

How to read it. Each point is a whole 10-year SIP. The median was 11.1% and the worst start 2010-04 (5.6%); 0% of windows finished below the FD line. Neighbouring points share most of their months: there are only 2 independent 10-year periods here.

per cent a year, after tax

60/20/20 SIPFixed-deposit SIP
201020150%5%10%15%12.2%4.1%
The latest window started in Oct 2016: ₹12,00,000 in, ₹22,69,126 out after tax (₹14,81,288 in FDs).
Source: tipsheet portfolio lab, computed from NSE total-return indices, the NSE 5-year benchmark G-sec index, domestic gold in rupees (World Gold Council), the 91-day T-bill yield and the 364-day T-bill as the FD proxy, with all-India CPI.
MethodEvery horizonJSON

60/40: 10-year SIP by start month

After-tax XIRR of each of 139 windows. Grey: the same instalments in one-year fixed deposits, interest taxed each year.

How to read it. Each point is a whole 10-year SIP. The median was 10.9% and the worst start 2010-04 (5.9%); 0% of windows finished below the FD line. Neighbouring points share most of their months: there are only 2 independent 10-year periods here.

per cent a year, after tax

60/40 SIPFixed-deposit SIP
201020150%5%10%15%9.1%4.1%
The latest window started in Oct 2016: ₹12,00,000 in, ₹19,19,743 out after tax (₹14,81,288 in FDs).
Source: tipsheet portfolio lab, computed from NSE total-return indices, the NSE 5-year benchmark G-sec index, domestic gold in rupees (World Gold Council), the 91-day T-bill yield and the 364-day T-bill as the FD proxy, with all-India CPI.
MethodEvery horizonJSON

Equal thirds: 10-year SIP by start month

After-tax XIRR of each of 139 windows. Grey: the same instalments in one-year fixed deposits, interest taxed each year.

How to read it. Each point is a whole 10-year SIP. The median was 9.8% and the worst start 2010-04 (6.5%); 0% of windows finished below the FD line. Neighbouring points share most of their months: there are only 2 independent 10-year periods here.

per cent a year, after tax

Equal thirds SIPFixed-deposit SIP
201020150%5%10%15%12.8%4.1%
The latest window started in Oct 2016: ₹12,00,000 in, ₹23,35,911 out after tax (₹14,81,288 in FDs).
Source: tipsheet portfolio lab, computed from NSE total-return indices, the NSE 5-year benchmark G-sec index, domestic gold in rupees (World Gold Council), the 91-day T-bill yield and the 364-day T-bill as the FD proxy, with all-India CPI.
MethodEvery horizonJSON

All Weather (Indian approximation): 10-year SIP by start month

After-tax XIRR of each of 139 windows. Grey: the same instalments in one-year fixed deposits, interest taxed each year.

How to read it. Each point is a whole 10-year SIP. The median was 9.6% and the worst start 2010-04 (6.9%); 0% of windows finished below the FD line. Neighbouring points share most of their months: there are only 2 independent 10-year periods here.

per cent a year, after tax

All Weather (Indian approximation) SIPFixed-deposit SIP
201020150%2%4%6%8%10%12%9.8%4.1%
The latest window started in Oct 2016: ₹12,00,000 in, ₹19,96,742 out after tax (₹14,81,288 in FDs).
Source: tipsheet portfolio lab, computed from NSE total-return indices, the NSE 5-year benchmark G-sec index, domestic gold in rupees (World Gold Council), the 91-day T-bill yield and the 364-day T-bill as the FD proxy, with all-India CPI.
MethodEvery horizonJSON

Permanent portfolio: 10-year SIP by start month

After-tax XIRR of each of 139 windows. Grey: the same instalments in one-year fixed deposits, interest taxed each year.

How to read it. Each point is a whole 10-year SIP. The median was 9.1% and the worst start 2010-04 (6.6%); 0% of windows finished below the FD line. Neighbouring points share most of their months: there are only 2 independent 10-year periods here.

per cent a year, after tax

Permanent portfolio SIPFixed-deposit SIP
201020150%5%10%15%10.8%4.1%
The latest window started in Oct 2016: ₹12,00,000 in, ₹21,07,302 out after tax (₹14,81,288 in FDs).
Source: tipsheet portfolio lab, computed from NSE total-return indices, the NSE 5-year benchmark G-sec index, domestic gold in rupees (World Gold Council), the 91-day T-bill yield and the 364-day T-bill as the FD proxy, with all-India CPI.
MethodEvery horizonJSON

Dual momentum: 10-year SIP by start month

After-tax XIRR of each of 139 windows. Grey: the same instalments in one-year fixed deposits, interest taxed each year.

How to read it. Each point is a whole 10-year SIP. The median was 8.9% and the worst start 2013-11 (6.2%); 0% of windows finished below the FD line. Neighbouring points share most of their months: there are only 2 independent 10-year periods here.

per cent a year, after tax

Dual momentum SIPFixed-deposit SIP
201020150%5%10%15%20%15.7%4.1%
The latest window started in Oct 2016: ₹12,00,000 in, ₹27,35,397 out after tax (₹14,81,288 in FDs).
Source: tipsheet portfolio lab, computed from NSE total-return indices, the NSE 5-year benchmark G-sec index, domestic gold in rupees (World Gold Council), the 91-day T-bill yield and the 364-day T-bill as the FD proxy, with all-India CPI.
MethodEvery horizonJSON

GTAA (10-month trend): 10-year SIP by start month

After-tax XIRR of each of 139 windows. Grey: the same instalments in one-year fixed deposits, interest taxed each year.

How to read it. Each point is a whole 10-year SIP. The median was 7.8% and the worst start 2009-08 (5.4%); 0% of windows finished below the FD line. Neighbouring points share most of their months: there are only 2 independent 10-year periods here.

per cent a year, after tax

GTAA (10-month trend) SIPFixed-deposit SIP
201020150%5%10%15%9.5%4.1%
The latest window started in Oct 2016: ₹12,00,000 in, ₹19,61,518 out after tax (₹14,81,288 in FDs).
Source: tipsheet portfolio lab, computed from NSE total-return indices, the NSE 5-year benchmark G-sec index, domestic gold in rupees (World Gold Council), the 91-day T-bill yield and the 364-day T-bill as the FD proxy, with all-India CPI.
MethodEvery horizonJSON

The longest histories

A few portfolios can be run from before Apr 2005: the Nifty 500 and Nifty 50 and the equity, G-sec and gold mixes. More start months, but the extra windows still overlap, so the independent periods barely rise. The ten-year Nifty 500 SIP had a median of 13.8% across 261 windows, 3 of them independent.

After-tax XIRR, per cent a year, over each portfolio's longest usable history.
PortfolioYearsWindowsIndependent periods5th pctMedianWorst (start)Below FDMore
Nifty 5001026139.3%13.8%3.4% (2010-04)0%
Nifty50 Equal Weight1025136.7%13.6%−0.6% (2010-04)2%
Nifty 501020828.8%12.6%3.4% (2010-04)0%
60/20/201018129.2%11.7%5.6% (2010-04)0%
60/401018129.1%11.1%5.9% (2010-04)0%
Equal thirds1018128.2%10.2%6.5% (2010-04)0%
Nifty 50020141111.9%14.0%10.7% (2000-04)0%
Nifty50 Equal Weight20131111.6%13.6%10.1% (2000-04)0%
Nifty 502088110.7%12.7%10.0% (2006-10)0%
60/20/202061111.7%12.2%11.4% (2006-10)0%
60/402061110.2%11.3%9.8% (2006-10)0%
Equal thirds2061110.6%11.0%10.4% (2003-11)0%

The popular refinements

Each refinement is compared with the plain SIP on the same start months. Differences are paired, tested with a Newey-West standard error that allows for the overlap, and checked again on non-overlapping windows. 'Ahead' is the share of windows in which the refinement finished better.

Valuation-aware SIPs and pausing in a crash

The dynamic SIP invests 1.5 times the instalment when valuations are in their cheapest third, half when they are in their dearest, and parks the rest in a liquid fund. Over ten years it trailed the plain Nifty 500 SIP by 0.27 points at the median. Stopping the SIP when the Nifty 500 was 20% below its peak, and keeping the money in a liquid fund, cost 1.47 points and about ₹1,79,253 of the final value on average.

Ten-year SIPs. Differences are the refinement minus the plain SIP, in XIRR points; value difference in rupees at the end.
RefinementPortfolioMedian differencet (Newey-West)AheadIndependent windowsMean value differenceMore
Dynamic SIP, CAPE signalNifty 50−0.27 pts–38%2−₹42,189
Dynamic SIP, CAPE signalNifty 500−0.27 pts–39%2−₹48,940
Dynamic SIP, yield-gap signalNifty 50−1.16 pts–23%2−₹1,27,515
Dynamic SIP, yield-gap signalNifty 500−1.41 pts–20%2−₹1,48,703
Pause in drawdowns, invest the backlog on restartNifty 50−0.44 pts–0%2−₹96,188
Pause in drawdowns, invest the backlog on restartNifty 500−0.47 pts–0%2−₹1,07,969
Pause in drawdowns, keep the cashNifty 50−1.29 pts–1%2−₹1,46,957
Pause in drawdowns, keep the cashNifty 500−1.47 pts–1%2−₹1,79,253

The date of the month

Median difference in after-tax XIRR against an SIP on the 1st, in points. Nifty 500, and the median across the 12 headline portfolios.
SIP dateNifty 500, 3 years5 years10 yearsAll 12, 3 years5 years10 yearsMore
5−0.02 pts−0.03 pts0.00 pts−0.02 pts−0.02 pts−0.01 pts
10+0.04 pts+0.06 pts+0.03 pts0.00 pts−0.04 pts−0.01 pts
15+0.10 pts+0.09 pts+0.05 pts+0.02 pts+0.04 pts+0.01 pts
20+0.27 pts+0.14 pts+0.07 pts+0.17 pts+0.08 pts+0.03 pts
25+0.48 pts+0.29 pts+0.14 pts+0.27 pts+0.19 pts+0.08 pts
28+0.37 pts+0.22 pts+0.11 pts+0.19 pts+0.14 pts+0.07 pts

Step-ups

Ten-year SIPs with the instalment raised each year. The return barely moves; the corpus grows because more money goes in.
PortfolioStep-upMedian XIRRMedian final valueMore
60/40None (plain SIP)10.9%₹21,16,725
60/405% a year10.9%₹25,53,421
60/4010% a year10.9%₹31,09,846
Nifty 500None (plain SIP)12.8%₹23,33,217
Nifty 5005% a year12.8%₹27,99,188
Nifty 50010% a year12.8%₹33,95,562

A lump sum moved in over months (STP)

Rs 12 lakh moved from a liquid fund in equal monthly transfers, against investing it all on day one. Difference in final value, per cent.
PortfolioTransfer overYears heldSTP minus lump sum, medianLump sum aheadMore
Nifty Midcap 15012 months1−4.5%61%
Nifty Midcap 15012 months3−4.9%65%
Nifty Midcap 15012 months5−5.7%63%
Nifty Midcap 15012 months10−6.8%68%
Nifty 5012 months1−3.5%68%
Nifty 5012 months3−3.8%69%
Nifty 5012 months5−4.3%68%
Nifty 5012 months10−4.5%71%
Nifty 50012 months1−2.8%63%
Nifty 50012 months3−3.5%66%
Nifty 50012 months5−4.0%67%
Nifty 50012 months10−4.8%70%
Nifty Smallcap 25012 months1−3.2%59%
Nifty Smallcap 25012 months3−3.6%59%
Nifty Smallcap 25012 months5−4.1%59%
Nifty Smallcap 25012 months10−5.5%65%
Nifty Midcap 1506 months1−2.5%61%
Nifty Midcap 1506 months3−3.1%61%
Nifty Midcap 1506 months5−3.3%61%
Nifty Midcap 1506 months10−3.4%62%
Nifty 506 months1−2.0%63%
Nifty 506 months3−2.2%62%
Nifty 506 months5−2.5%62%
Nifty 506 months10−2.5%58%
Nifty 5006 months1−2.0%62%
Nifty 5006 months3−2.2%63%
Nifty 5006 months5−2.5%64%
Nifty 5006 months10−2.4%60%
Nifty Smallcap 2506 months1−2.0%58%
Nifty Smallcap 2506 months3−2.0%60%
Nifty Smallcap 2506 months5−2.1%60%
Nifty Smallcap 2506 months10−2.0%60%

SIP against a lump sum

Ten years. The SIP's XIRR against the CAGR of investing the same total at the start. These are two different investors, so this is the comparison people make rather than a fair one; the STP table above is the fair one.
PortfolioSIP, medianLump sum, medianSIP aheadMore
Nifty Midcap 15016.9%15.8%67%
Nifty Smallcap 25014.5%13.3%66%
Nifty 50012.8%12.5%62%
Nifty 5012.0%11.4%61%
Equal thirds9.8%10.1%54%
60/20/2011.1%11.5%52%
Permanent portfolio9.1%9.2%49%
Four-factor blend15.3%14.9%47%
60/4010.9%11.0%47%
All Weather (Indian approximation)9.6%9.8%46%
Dual momentum8.9%9.0%46%
GTAA (10-month trend)7.8%7.9%45%

What tax took

Ten-year SIPs. Median XIRR points lost to tax, and what switching the equity exemption off changes.
PortfolioLost to taxExemption off vs on
Nifty Smallcap 2500.07−0.03 pts
Nifty Midcap 1500.21−0.06 pts
Nifty 5000.31−0.07 pts
Four-factor blend0.32−0.08 pts
Nifty 500.40−0.08 pts
60/400.49−0.09 pts
Permanent portfolio0.54−0.10 pts
60/20/200.54−0.09 pts
All Weather (Indian approximation)0.60−0.10 pts
Equal thirds0.61−0.10 pts
GTAA (10-month trend)1.150.00 pts
Dual momentum1.380.00 pts

Checking published studies

Before trusting our engine, we ran it in replication mode: the Nifty 50 total-return index, no costs, no tax, instalments on the first session of each month. Published Indian SIP studies can then be set against it.

Nifty 50 TRI, no costs or tax. XIRR across start months, per cent a year.
YearsWindowsLowestMedianHighestAbove 12%NegativeMore
5268−4.4%14.2%47.9%65%0.7%
82322.2%13.2%34.6%67%0.0%
102083.8%13.7%23.5%73%0.0%
121845.5%13.3%18.2%70%0.0%
151486.9%13.4%17.6%85%0.0%
208810.9%13.6%15.7%90%0.0%

Freefincal's study used the same index, and we reproduce the fall it describes in ten-year SIP returns across the end dates it covers. WhiteOak Capital's and Geojit's studies used the Sensex, which we do not hold, over a sample that starts earlier than ours. Our figures have the same shape and come out a little lower, as a later start and a later end would predict. Because the index differs, neither counts as a match under the specification's rule, and nothing was tuned to close the gap. Their published figures are quoted in the results log.

What we predicted, and what happened

Five predictions were written down before any SIP result was computed. 3 held; the others are reported with the same weight.

S1 Failed

The SIP date of the month makes no practical difference: the median after-tax XIRR differs by less than 0.2 points between any two dates, and no difference is significant once overlap is accounted for.

Across the 12 headline portfolios, later dates differed from the 1st by up to 0.75 points at the median at three and five years, with 62 paired tests beyond two Newey-West standard errors; at ten years and beyond the largest gap was 0.21 points. The results log traces this to a turn-of-month effect in Indian indices. Six dates on twelve portfolios and six horizons is a lot of tests, and a well-known effect may weaken.

S2 Held

An all-equity (Nifty 500) SIP had a lower after-tax XIRR than the fixed-deposit SIP in some 5-year windows but in no 15-year window.

It fell below the FD proxy in 8.0% of 5-year windows (4 independent periods) and in 0.0% of 15-year windows (1 independent period, so the second half rests on very little).

S3 Failed, in the other direction

The valuation-aware dynamic SIP beats the plain SIP by less than 0.5 points of XIRR at the median 10-year window, with the interval for the difference including zero.

It did not beat the plain SIP at all: the median 10-year difference was −0.27 pts for Nifty 50 and −0.27 pts for Nifty 500, with the CAPE signal. Keeping money in the liquid sleeve while valuations looked dear cost more than buying more when they looked cheap gained.

S4 Held

Pausing during drawdowns lowers the terminal value relative to an uninterrupted SIP in most windows that contain a drawdown of more than 20%.

At five years and longer, the paused SIP finished ahead in at most 4% of windows, for either way of handling the skipped money. That share is over all windows, which is stricter than the prediction's subset.

S5 Held

Lump sum beats a 12-month STP in about two thirds of start months for an all-equity portfolio, in line with Vanguard's US finding (2012).

Investing on day one beat a 12-month STP in 59% to 71% of start months, across the equity portfolios and horizons tested.

The workings

Method

Data

Every chart has a table view, a CSV download and a link to its published JSON. Bundles are listed in data status.

Read with