Micro caps have led the Nifty 500 by 26.0 percentage points over six months, and are still ahead over the last month.
Among 23 sector indices, 9 are ahead of the market over both six months and one month, led by MidSmall Healthcare (+17.2 pts), Pharma (+17.1 pts) and Media (+16.3 pts): wide leadership.
Across assets, gold (in rupees) did best over a year (+23.5%), Indian shares (Nifty 500) worst (−4.1%).
The evidence
Momentum as a style
The blended stock-momentum long-short (top fifth minus bottom fifth of liquid NSE stocks, gross) over the last 12 months, and where that sits in its history since 2005.
Over the year, micro caps did best against the Nifty 500 (+16.9% relative) and large caps worst (−5.2%)
Each size index's total return divided by the Nifty 500's, set to 100 a year ago. A rising line is beating the broad market; a falling one is trailing it. Where the lines cross shows when leadership changed hands.
Source: NSE Indices total return series (dividends reinvested).
Table
Date
Large caps (Nifty 50)
Mid caps (Midcap 150)
Small caps (Smallcap 250)
Micro caps (Microcap 250)
Oct 2026
95
106
110
117
Sept 2026
95
106
109
115
Sept 2026
95
106
107
112
Sept 2026
95
107
108
112
Aug 2026
95
107
106
110
Aug 2026
95
107
105
109
Aug 2026
96
105
105
108
Jul 2026
96
106
104
106
Jul 2026
97
106
105
106
Jul 2026
96
106
104
106
Jun 2026
96
106
104
107
Jun 2026
96
106
103
106
Jun 2026
96
106
103
104
May 2026
96
107
101
102
May 2026
97
106
100
100
May 2026
97
106
102
102
Apr 2026
98
105
100
100
Apr 2026
99
103
97
97
Apr 2026
100
102
95
94
Mar 2026
101
101
94
91
Mar 2026
100
102
95
92
Mar 2026
101
101
93
90
Feb 2026
101
101
93
92
Feb 2026
101
101
94
93
Feb 2026
101
100
93
92
Jan 2026
102
99
92
89
Jan 2026
101
101
94
92
Dec 2025
101
100
95
93
Dec 2025
101
101
94
93
Dec 2025
102
100
94
94
Dec 2025
101
101
95
95
Nov 2025
101
100
96
96
Nov 2025
100
101
98
98
Oct 2025
100
100
99
99
Oct 2025
101
99
98
98
Oct 2025
100
100
100
99
9 of 23 sectors are ahead of the market over both six months and one month
Each sector index's return minus the Nifty 500's: bars over six months, the black tick over the last month. Bars in colour lead on both; light bars lag on both; grey ones are rotating (ahead on one, behind on the other).
leading on bothrotatinglagging on bothlast month
Source: NSE Indices total return series (dividends reinvested); groups follow NSE's own index classification
Table
Six months
one month
MidSmall Healthcare
+17.2 pts
+2.4 pts
Pharma
+17.1 pts
+3.8 pts
Media
+16.3 pts
+8.5 pts
Healthcare (Nifty 500 stocks)
+14.4 pts
+1.7 pts
Realty
+14.0 pts
−3.1 pts
MidSmall IT & Telecom
+13.2 pts
+0.5 pts
Healthcare
+10.9 pts
+1.9 pts
REITs & Realty
+7.2 pts
+0.5 pts
MidSmall Financial Services
+7.0 pts
−2.6 pts
Chemicals
+6.0 pts
−0.8 pts
Private Bank
+3.5 pts
+2.5 pts
Consumer Durables
+2.5 pts
−2.8 pts
Metal
+1.2 pts
−1.6 pts
Bank
+0.9 pts
+1.2 pts
Financial Services Ex-Bank
+0.7 pts
−2.6 pts
Auto
−0.2 pts
−4.5 pts
Financial Services
−2.5 pts
+0.8 pts
Financial Services 25/50
−3.9 pts
+0.1 pts
Oil & Gas
−5.0 pts
+0.3 pts
PSU Bank
−5.7 pts
+0.7 pts
FMCG
−8.3 pts
+3.0 pts
Cement
−9.0 pts
−1.8 pts
IT
−15.1 pts
−2.7 pts
Healthcare (Nifty 500 stocks) has beaten the Nifty 500 in each of the last 5 complete months, the longest current run
Each cell is a sector's return minus the Nifty 500's in that month: rose ahead, blue behind, grey within a point. Sectors are ordered by their total over the last 12 complete months. The last column, Oct 2026, is the month to date.
4+ points behindwithin a point4+ points ahead
Source: NSE Indices total return series (dividends reinvested)
Table
Date
Metal
Pharma
MidSmall Financial Services
MidSmall Healthcare
Healthcare (Nifty 500 stocks)
Healthcare
PSU Bank
MidSmall IT & Telecom
REITs & Realty
Media
Financial Services Ex-Bank
Private Bank
Realty
Bank
Auto
Consumer Durables
Chemicals
Financial Services
Financial Services 25/50
Oil & Gas
IT
FMCG
Cement
Oct 2026
−3.5 pts
0.0 pts
+0.1 pts
+0.2 pts
−0.5 pts
−0.4 pts
+1.0 pts
+3.5 pts
−1.8 pts
−0.2 pts
+0.7 pts
+1.6 pts
−2.9 pts
+0.8 pts
−4.3 pts
−0.8 pts
−0.2 pts
+1.1 pts
+0.9 pts
+0.1 pts
+0.2 pts
+0.7 pts
−2.7 pts
Sept 2026
+2.6 pts
+3.1 pts
−2.6 pts
+2.9 pts
+2.1 pts
+1.1 pts
−1.0 pts
−3.0 pts
+3.1 pts
+7.5 pts
−3.6 pts
+1.2 pts
−0.4 pts
0.0 pts
−3.0 pts
−3.5 pts
+0.3 pts
−0.4 pts
−0.9 pts
+1.5 pts
−5.3 pts
+2.6 pts
+0.4 pts
Aug 2026
+3.7 pts
+2.5 pts
+3.2 pts
+1.5 pts
+1.5 pts
+1.1 pts
+2.8 pts
+6.5 pts
+0.5 pts
−3.7 pts
−0.7 pts
+1.9 pts
+0.3 pts
+1.4 pts
+0.4 pts
+0.9 pts
−0.2 pts
−1.0 pts
−1.8 pts
−1.2 pts
+1.5 pts
−6.3 pts
−3.5 pts
Jul 2026
−0.4 pts
+2.8 pts
−1.3 pts
+1.1 pts
+1.2 pts
+1.8 pts
−3.7 pts
+3.7 pts
+2.8 pts
+7.3 pts
+1.4 pts
−3.6 pts
+6.8 pts
−2.7 pts
+6.8 pts
+8.0 pts
−0.3 pts
−2.0 pts
−1.3 pts
−0.2 pts
+14.9 pts
−1.3 pts
+0.3 pts
Jun 2026
−8.2 pts
+2.4 pts
−1.0 pts
+3.3 pts
+3.6 pts
+3.2 pts
+2.5 pts
−5.3 pts
+2.6 pts
+3.3 pts
+0.1 pts
+4.7 pts
+4.3 pts
+4.7 pts
−1.0 pts
+2.6 pts
−0.4 pts
+3.4 pts
+2.9 pts
−3.0 pts
−11.3 pts
−2.7 pts
−2.5 pts
May 2026
+4.8 pts
+4.7 pts
+3.7 pts
+6.3 pts
+4.8 pts
+3.2 pts
−3.2 pts
+11.6 pts
0.0 pts
−3.3 pts
+1.0 pts
+0.2 pts
−1.4 pts
−1.0 pts
+1.8 pts
−6.2 pts
+2.7 pts
−1.0 pts
−0.9 pts
−4.2 pts
−0.6 pts
−3.2 pts
+1.2 pts
Apr 2026
+4.7 pts
−5.9 pts
+6.9 pts
−2.7 pts
−4.3 pts
−5.5 pts
−2.8 pts
−0.8 pts
−0.4 pts
+4.9 pts
+3.7 pts
−1.7 pts
+11.3 pts
−1.4 pts
−1.5 pts
+2.3 pts
+3.7 pts
−1.4 pts
−1.7 pts
−2.1 pts
−9.3 pts
+1.6 pts
−2.8 pts
Mar 2026
+2.6 pts
+8.2 pts
−0.8 pts
+6.2 pts
+6.2 pts
+6.9 pts
−8.5 pts
+2.9 pts
+1.0 pts
+0.5 pts
−2.5 pts
−4.3 pts
−5.2 pts
−5.6 pts
−4.2 pts
−0.8 pts
+1.2 pts
−4.2 pts
−3.6 pts
−0.6 pts
+6.3 pts
+0.4 pts
−2.5 pts
Feb 2026
+3.1 pts
+5.5 pts
−0.6 pts
+5.0 pts
+6.2 pts
+6.8 pts
+8.4 pts
−14.0 pts
+0.3 pts
+1.8 pts
+1.1 pts
−0.2 pts
−0.8 pts
+1.1 pts
+4.9 pts
+8.8 pts
−0.6 pts
+1.6 pts
+1.1 pts
+3.7 pts
−20.0 pts
−0.5 pts
−1.9 pts
Jan 2026
+9.2 pts
−1.2 pts
+2.7 pts
−1.6 pts
−2.2 pts
−1.8 pts
+9.0 pts
+0.5 pts
+0.4 pts
−0.8 pts
+0.1 pts
+2.7 pts
−7.5 pts
+3.3 pts
−1.8 pts
−3.1 pts
−0.9 pts
+2.3 pts
+1.9 pts
−0.3 pts
+4.2 pts
−4.4 pts
+3.1 pts
Dec 2025
+8.8 pts
−0.9 pts
−0.3 pts
−0.6 pts
−1.9 pts
−2.3 pts
+0.5 pts
−1.2 pts
−1.2 pts
−1.3 pts
−0.4 pts
0.0 pts
−2.5 pts
0.0 pts
+1.8 pts
−2.7 pts
+1.1 pts
−0.7 pts
−0.6 pts
+1.9 pts
+1.5 pts
0.0 pts
+1.2 pts
Nov 2025
−4.0 pts
+2.7 pts
+4.8 pts
−0.6 pts
0.0 pts
+1.3 pts
+3.0 pts
+2.4 pts
−2.7 pts
−5.4 pts
+2.3 pts
+1.6 pts
−5.7 pts
+2.4 pts
+2.6 pts
−2.9 pts
−2.2 pts
+1.8 pts
+2.3 pts
−0.5 pts
+3.8 pts
−1.9 pts
−5.9 pts
Oct 2025
+1.4 pts
−1.0 pts
+5.4 pts
−2.2 pts
−1.4 pts
−0.4 pts
+4.4 pts
+4.6 pts
−0.1 pts
−4.6 pts
+1.8 pts
+1.6 pts
+4.9 pts
+1.4 pts
−3.4 pts
−0.3 pts
−2.3 pts
−0.1 pts
+0.6 pts
+1.9 pts
+2.5 pts
−1.6 pts
−4.7 pts
By style, high beta has led over the year (+14.3 pts) and quality trailed (−3.4 pts)
NSE's strategy indices, each built to hold one kind of stock, against the Nifty 500: bars over a year, the tick over three months. These are NSE's index definitions, not my factor portfolios.
one yearthree months
Source: NSE Indices total return series.
Table
One year
three months
High beta (Nifty High Beta 50)
+14.3 pts
+0.9 pts
Value (Nifty200 Value 30)
+9.0 pts
−2.0 pts
Equal weight (Nifty500 Equal Weight)
+4.1 pts
+1.7 pts
Momentum (Nifty200 Momentum 30)
+1.0 pts
+3.6 pts
Low volatility (Nifty100 Low Vol 30)
−2.5 pts
−2.0 pts
Quality (Nifty200 Quality 30)
−3.4 pts
−0.6 pts
Over the year: Gold +23.5%, Cash +5.4%, 5-year G-secs +3.4%, Indian shares −4.1%
Total returns in rupees, set to 100 a year ago.
Indian shares (Nifty 500)Gold (in rupees)5-year G-secsCash (T-bills)
Source: NSE Indices (Nifty 500 total return, 5-year G-sec index); gold in rupees (World Gold Council); 91-day T-bill (RBI)
Table
Date
Indian shares (Nifty 500)
Gold (in rupees)
5-year G-secs
Cash (T-bills)
Oct 2026
96
124
103
105
Sept 2026
98
127
104
105
Sept 2026
98
127
104
105
Sept 2026
101
129
105
105
Aug 2026
102
134
105
105
Aug 2026
102
129
105
105
Aug 2026
103
124
105
105
Jul 2026
100
119
104
104
Jul 2026
101
118
104
104
Jul 2026
99
119
104
104
Jun 2026
100
118
104
104
Jun 2026
100
125
103
104
Jun 2026
96
126
103
104
May 2026
99
130
102
103
May 2026
97
132
101
103
May 2026
100
126
102
103
Apr 2026
99
126
102
103
Apr 2026
98
128
102
103
Apr 2026
92
122
100
103
Mar 2026
89
114
101
102
Mar 2026
95
134
102
102
Mar 2026
99
140
102
102
Feb 2026
101
129
102
102
Feb 2026
103
130
101
102
Feb 2026
98
138
101
102
Jan 2026
99
129
101
102
Jan 2026
101
114
101
101
Dec 2025
103
112
101
101
Dec 2025
102
110
100
101
Dec 2025
101
107
100
101
Dec 2025
103
108
100
101
Nov 2025
103
102
100
101
Nov 2025
102
104
100
101
Oct 2025
103
100
100
100
Oct 2025
102
106
100
100
Oct 2025
100
102
100
100
What has changed
Gaining over the last month after lagging for six: FMCG (+3.0 pts), Financial Services (+0.8 pts), PSU Bank (+0.7 pts) and Oil & Gas (+0.3 pts).
Slipping over the last month after leading for six: Realty (−3.1 pts), MidSmall Financial Services (−2.6 pts), Chemicals (−0.8 pts) and Consumer Durables (−2.8 pts).
What history says
Buying the strongest fifth of stocks and selling the weakest has grown 62-fold since 2004, gross of costs; its worst fall was 59%, to Aug 2009
The momentum barometer's blended long-short: each month, liquid NSE stocks ranked on six measures of momentum, the top fifth held against the bottom fifth, log scale. Over the last year it gained 27%. Before costs and impact; a long-short book is not something most investors can hold.
Source: The momentum barometer (NSE bhavcopy, point-in-time liquid universe).
Table
Date
Momentum long-short
Sept 2026
62
Feb 2026
57
Jul 2025
50
Dec 2024
52
May 2024
47
Oct 2023
42
Mar 2023
36
Aug 2022
32
Jan 2022
29
Jun 2021
23
Nov 2020
21
Apr 2020
24
Sept 2019
21
Feb 2019
16
Jul 2018
14
Dec 2017
11
May 2017
8.8
Oct 2016
8.3
Mar 2016
7.5
Aug 2015
7.6
Jan 2015
5.9
Jun 2014
4.2
Nov 2013
4.4
Apr 2013
3.9
Sept 2012
3.2
Feb 2012
2.7
Jul 2011
2.9
Dec 2010
2.1
May 2010
1.8
Oct 2009
1.5
Nov 2008
3.2
Apr 2008
2.8
Sept 2007
2.6
Feb 2007
2.0
Jul 2006
1.7
Dec 2005
1.5
May 2005
1.2
Buying the leading sectors
Failed its pre-registered test
My pre-registered sector momentum rules (12-1 month and 6-1 month) returned 14.5% and 16.9% a year from 2005, against 15.5% for holding every sector equally. Neither beat equal weight after counting trials. Today's sector leaders are a description, not a tip.
Among individual stocks the picture differs: the top fifth by blended momentum beat the bottom fifth by 1.83% a month on average from 2004, gross of costs, in both halves of the sample (t = 4.7). The premium has crashed after sharp rebounds from bear markets: in the 28 months after the market's two-year return turned negative it averaged −2.01% a month, though this missed the pre-registered bar. The flag is on today.