Economy
Is the Centre keeping to its budget?
Capital spending is running ahead of the usual pace, and tax revenue is behind the budget. By the end of Aug 2026, the Centre had run up 41.9% of the fiscal deficit in its budget for FY27, against 38.1% a year earlier and a median of 57.3% at this point in the previous 10 years.
Written for readers following the Union budget through the year. Accounts to Aug 2026.
Capital spending is running ahead of the usual pace, and tax revenue is behind the budget
By the end of Aug 2026, the Centre had run up 41.9% of the fiscal deficit in its budget for FY27, against 38.1% a year earlier and a median of 57.3% at this point in the previous 10 years. That is below the usual share for the end of August; in the past 10 years the share at this point ranged from 27.0% to 109.3%.
Net tax revenue, what the Centre keeps after the states' share, was 3.4% higher than a year earlier. To reach the budget, it must grow 11.9% over the rest of the year; the budget assumed 9.3% for the year as a whole.
By the end of Aug 2026, it had spent 41.7% of the capital spending budgeted for FY27, ₹5.1 lakh cr, 18.2% more than in the same months a year earlier. At this point in the previous 9 years the median was 35.5%.
In FY26 (2025-26) the fiscal deficit came to 4.4% of GDP (4.3% measured against GDP on the older 2011-12 base), 3.2% below the amount first budgeted. The primary deficit, the deficit before interest, was 0.8% of GDP.
usual range: the middle half of all readings latest Each line runs from the lowest reading to the highest. Each row against its own history. Twelve-month figures add up the latest twelve months CGA reports; deficits as a share of GDP are financial years.
This year so far
By the end of Aug 2026, the Centre had run up 41.9% of the fiscal deficit in its budget for FY27, against 38.1% a year earlier and a median of 57.3% at this point in the previous 10 years.
Last year
In FY26 (2025-26) the fiscal deficit came to 4.4% of GDP (4.3% measured against GDP on the older 2011-12 base), 3.2% below the amount first budgeted. The primary deficit, the deficit before interest, was 0.8% of GDP.
Since 1998
Since 1998, the deficit has ranged from 2.7% of GDP (FY08) to 9.3% (FY21), on the 2011-12 GDP base, which runs furthest back.
Is the deficit on its usual path?
The deficit against GDP and the budget
That is below the usual share for the end of August; in the past 10 years the share at this point ranged from 27.0% to 109.3%.
The fiscal deficit through FY27, as a share of the year's estimate
Year to date, % of the budget estimate (April to December) or revised estimate (January to March).
How to read it. A line above the median means the Centre has borrowed more of its year's deficit than usual by that month. Early in the year the share swings widely, because receipts arrive in lumps.
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Will tax revenue reach the budget?
Net tax revenue, what the Centre keeps after the states' share, was 3.4% higher than a year earlier. To reach the budget, it must grow 11.9% over the rest of the year; the budget assumed 9.3% for the year as a whole.
Growth so far, and growth needed to meet the estimate
On the same months a year earlier, %. Year to date to Aug 2026.
How to read it. Where the second dot sits far to the right of the first, the rest of the year has to be much stronger than the months so far. For spending lines, a needed rate below the rate so far means the Centre can slow down and still spend its budget.
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Is capital spending keeping up?
Spending, subsidies and interest
By the end of Aug 2026, it had spent 41.7% of the capital spending budgeted for FY27, ₹5.1 lakh cr, 18.2% more than in the same months a year earlier. At this point in the previous 9 years the median was 35.5%.
Capital spending through FY27, as a share of the year's estimate
Year to date, % of the estimate. CGA prints capital spending as its own line from April 2017.
How to read it. Above the median, the Centre is spending its capital budget faster than in past years. The shaded range shows how far past years spread at each month.
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How much of revenue goes on interest?
Interest took 36.7% of the Centre's revenue receipts over the twelve months to Aug 2026, against 40.4% a year earlier.
Interest payments as a share of revenue receipts
Twelve-month totals, %.
How to read it. The higher the line, the more of each rupee the Centre collects goes to paying interest on past borrowing rather than to anything else.
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What the numbers can't tell you
- The yardstick changes in January
- CGA measures each month's year-to-date figure against the budget estimate from April to December and against the revised estimate from January to March. A jump in the share in January can come from a lower revised target, not from faster spending.
- Spending is lumpy
- Tax instalments fall due in June, September, December and March, and the Centre often front-loads transfers to states and capital spending. A month's share of the budget says more when set against the same month in past years, as these pages do.
- These are the Centre's accounts only
- State governments spend more than the Centre and borrow on their own. The general government deficit, the Centre and states together, is larger than the figures here.
- Provisional figures change
- CGA's monthly figures are provisional, including the full-year figure it publishes at the end of May. The audited Finance Accounts come months later and can differ.
- Two bases for GDP
- Shares of GDP use MoSPI's 2022-23 base from FY23 and the 2011-12 base for the full history; the two are shown side by side, never joined, because GDP levels differ between bases.
- A gap in the archive
- CGA's archive lacks 26 monthly statements, among them most Octobers before 2016 and Novembers before 2006. Those months stay blank and drop out of the past-year comparisons.
What changed
Each row compares the share of the year's estimate reached with the month before; the step is that month's flow. A deficit's share can fall in a month when receipts exceed spending.
| Measure | A month earlier | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal deficit, share of estimate | 26.8% (July) | 41.9% (August) | up 15.1 points |
| Capital spending, share of estimate | 36.9% (July) | 41.7% (August) | up 4.8 points |
| Net tax revenue, share of estimate | 29.5% (July) | 29.2% (August) | down 0.3 points |
| Total spending, share of estimate | 32.9% (July) | 38.9% (August) | up 6.0 points |
The workings
The question
Data
Every chart has a table view, a CSV download and a link to its published JSON. Bundles are listed in data status.