Rupee: downtrend since June 2021

Rupee has been in a downtrend since June 2021 (5.3 years). Its trend score is 0 out of 100, nearly all signals down. On momentum it is mid-table, 56th of 128, and 13th of 14 in other assets.

Written for anyone holding or watching Rupee. Data to 5 Oct 2026.

Today

Rupee has had no earlier downtrend as long as this one.

Trend: Downtrend since June 2021score 0 of 100; four weeks ago 8
Momentum rank: 56th of 12813th of 14 in other assets; 13 weeks ago 5 on 0–100
The 10-month rule: in cash since May 2025month-end price against its 10-month average
The 200-day rule: in cash since July 2025daily close against its 200-session average

Over the last	1 month1M	3 months3M	6 months6M	12 months12M
Signals up	0 of 4	0 of 4	0 of 4	0 of 4
Over cash	−1.8%	−2.2%	−5.6%	−12.8%
Momentum percentile	92	82	6	20

Neighbours on momentum in other assets: S&P/ASX 200, Hang Seng, Rupee, CAC 40.

Trend over time

The trend score each week since 2001, and the regimes it implies: an uptrend from the week it reaches 70 until it falls to 30.

Rupee: trend score, week by week

Share of 24 trend signals pointing up, 0 to 100, weekly to 5 Oct 2026; the 13-week average in bold.

How to read it. The score moves fast because a third of its signals look back only one or two months. Long stretches near 100 or 0 are the strong trends; the lines at 70 and 30 are where a regime starts.

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Source: ECB reference rates: US dollars per rupee (up = a stronger rupee)

Method JSON

Uptrends and downtrends

Weekly; blank before the first trend was established.

How to read it. 17 uptrends and 18 downtrends since 2001. Hover for the dates.

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Source: ECB reference rates: US dollars per rupee (up = a stronger rupee)

Method JSON

Which horizons are rising

Up signals out of four at each horizon, weekly, last three years. Blue: all four up; red: all four down.

How to read it. Trends turn from the top row down: the one-month signals flip first and the twelve-month ones last. Red spreading down the rows is a downtrend taking hold; blue spreading down is a recovery being confirmed.

Momentum over time

Where Rupee has ranked against the other markets in the section, each week. The rank is relative: near 100 it is rising faster than almost everything else, near 0 slower, whatever the market as a whole is doing.

Rupee: momentum rank, week by week

0 to 100 among the markets with a year of history that week (today 128); average of the 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month ranks.

How to read it. Leadership that lasts shows as long spells high on the chart; a line that swings from top to bottom is a market that takes turns.

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Source: ECB reference rates: US dollars per rupee (up = a stronger rupee)

Method JSON

Falls from the high

How far Rupee stood below its previous high each week. Its worst fall was 59%, at the bottom in July 2026; today it is 59% below its high.

Rupee: fall from the previous high

Weekly, %, price only.

How to read it. Zero is a new high. The depth of each dip is the fall a holder sat through; its width is how long the recovery took.

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Source: ECB reference rates: US dollars per rupee (up = a stronger rupee)

Method JSON

Returns, month by month

Every month's price return since Feb 2000, and each year's. Rows are years, newest first.

Rupee, monthly price return, %. Colour saturates at ±10% (the year column too). * part year; the latest month is month to date.
	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Year
2026*	−2.3	+0.9	−3.8	−0.2	−0.1	+0.4	−0.8	+0.2	−0.7	−0.5			−6.7
2025	−1.1	−0.9	+2.2	+1.2	−1.2	−0.3	−2.1	−0.6	−0.7	+0.1	−0.8	−0.4	−4.7
2024	+0.1	+0.2	−0.6	−0.1	0.0	+0.1	−0.4	−0.2	+0.1	−0.3	−0.6	−1.2	−2.8
2023	+1.0	−0.9	+0.5	+0.5	−1.0	+0.7	−0.2	−0.6	−0.4	−0.2	−0.1	+0.2	−0.6
2022	−0.5	−1.0	−0.4	−0.9	−1.5	−1.7	−0.3	−0.3	−2.4	−1.6	+1.8	−1.6	−10.0
2021	+0.3	−1.4	+1.0	−1.2	+2.0	−2.4	0.0	+1.8	−1.8	−0.7	−0.3	+1.0	−1.8
2020	0.0	−1.1	−4.5	+0.8	−0.6	−0.1	+1.0	+2.1	−0.6	−1.0	+0.5	+1.4	−2.3
2019	−2.1	+0.3	+2.4	−0.6	−0.2	+1.0	+0.3	−3.7	+0.8	−0.1	−1.0	+0.4	−2.4
2018	+0.5	−2.5	0.0	−1.8	−1.5	−1.6	−0.1	−3.5	−2.0	−2.0	+6.3	0.0	−8.3
2017	+0.3	+1.6	+2.7	+1.0	−0.3	−0.2	+0.7	+0.4	−2.1	+0.8	+0.4	+0.9	+6.4
2016	−2.5	−0.7	+3.1	−0.2	−1.2	−0.5	+0.8	0.0	+0.5	−0.3	−2.5	+0.9	−2.6
2015	+1.9	+0.3	−1.1	−1.5	−0.5	+0.3	−0.8	−3.4	+1.2	+0.3	−1.9	+0.8	−4.5
2014	−1.2	+1.5	+3.1	−0.6	+1.9	−1.8	−0.6	−0.1	−2.0	+0.8	−1.2	−1.7	−2.0
2013	+3.3	−2.1	+0.1	+1.1	−4.9	−4.9	−1.6	−9.0	+5.7	+2.2	−1.5	+0.9	−11.2
2012	+7.4	+1.0	−3.9	−3.3	−6.1	+0.7	+0.1	+0.2	+5.0	−1.8	−1.1	−1.0	−3.4
2011	−2.6	+1.4	+1.5	+0.8	−1.9	+0.9	+1.1	−4.0	−5.9	+0.6	−6.8	−1.6	−15.8
2010	+0.7	+0.2	+2.7	+1.2	−4.3	−0.2	+0.1	−1.4	+4.9	+1.1	−3.4	+2.8	+4.1
2009	−0.5	−4.7	+0.8	+1.2	+6.2	−1.4	−0.6	−1.7	+2.3	+1.7	+1.2	−0.2	+4.1
2008	−0.1	−1.5	−0.2	−1.2	−4.6	−1.1	+1.0	−2.9	−5.8	−5.8	−0.8	+2.7	−18.9
2007	+0.2	−0.2	+2.1	+5.4	+1.6	−0.7	+1.1	−1.1	+2.4	+1.3	−0.8	+0.6	+12.5
2006	+2.2	−0.4	−0.8	−0.8	−2.9	+0.7	−1.2	+0.1	+1.3	+2.0	+0.6	+1.1	+1.8
2005	−0.5	+0.2	−0.2	+0.6	−0.7	+0.5	+0.1	−1.3	+0.4	−2.6	−1.8	+2.0	−3.4
2004	+0.6	+0.2	+3.9	−2.2	−2.2	−1.0	−0.9	+0.1	+1.1	+1.1	+1.6	+2.5	+4.8
2003	+0.4	+0.3	+0.3	+0.3	+0.5	+1.4	+0.6	+0.6	+0.3	+0.9	−1.1	+0.5	+5.2
2002	−0.6	−0.4	−0.1	−0.3	−0.1	+0.2	+0.5	+0.4	+0.2	0.0	+0.1	+0.7	+0.5
2001	+0.6	−0.3	−0.2	−0.5	−0.3	−0.1	−0.1	−0.1	−1.7	−0.1	+0.1	−0.5	−3.2
2000*		+0.1	0.0	−0.1	−2.1	−0.2	−0.8	−1.7	−0.4	−1.8	0.0	+0.3	−6.5

About this market

Rupee, in other assets (gold, g-secs and the rupee). Source: ECB reference rates: US dollars per rupee (up = a stronger rupee). History from Jan 2000.

Price only. No income is added to this series.

Trend asks whether a market is rising; momentum asks whether it is rising faster than the others. Both look back over the same horizons: 1, 3, 6 and 12 months. Every market is measured on its return above a liquid fund (the 91-day T-bill), so an index that only keeps pace with cash is not trending.

The trend score is the share of 24 signals that point up: four ways of asking whether a price is trending (above where it was, above its average, a short average above a long one, in the top half of its range), each at six horizons from one month to a year. 100 means all agree it is rising; 0 that all agree it is falling.

Uptrend and downtrend. Read once a week, a market enters an uptrend when its score reaches 70 (17 of 24 signals up) and stays in it until the score falls to 30 or below, when it enters a downtrend. "Uptrend since March 2026" means the score first reached 70 in March and has not fallen to 30 since. The gap between the two lines keeps a market from flipping every other week.

Describing is not forecasting. In our pre-registered tests no trend or momentum rule on indices beat buying and holding by more than luck would explain, and after tax every rule trailed on the large-cap indices. What the rules did reliably was cut the worst falls. What the tests found. Many indices are back-calculated by NSE before their launch; their pages say so and draw that history lighter.

The workings

Method

How trend, momentum and regimes are measured

Data

Every chart has a table view, a CSV download and a link to its published JSON. Bundles are listed in data status.

Today

Trend over time

Momentum over time

Falls from the high

Returns, month by month

About this market

The workings

Method

Data

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