Data to 5 October 2026
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DossiersAnswer as of 5 Oct 2026

Is money cheap?

Cheap

After inflation the repo rate is 0.43%, lower than 60% of months since 2001, and the overnight call rate is 16 bps below it. At its last meeting, on 5 August 2026, the MPC left the repo rate at 5.25%.

Of the five measures that vote, four say cheap and one sits in between.

todaya month agoa year ago

The evidence

Each measure against its own history, strongest first. The bar runs from the lowest reading to the highest; the shaded part is the middle half. A measure votes cheap at or above the 70th percentile of its history and dear at or below the 30th, unless its note says otherwise. Primary measures count double.

  1. Call rate minus repo rate Primary. 10 bps or more below repo means surplus cash (cheap); 10 or more above, a deficit (dear)
    −16 bps 5 Oct 2026 A year ago −12 bps
    cheap
  2. Change in the repo rate over the last year Primary. A net cut counts as cheap, a net rise as dear
    −25 bps 2 Oct 2026 A year ago −100 bps
    cheap
  3. Money supply (M3) growth Supporting
    16.6% 15 Sept 2026, 78th percentile since 2002 A year ago 9.6%
    cheap
  4. Banks' average rate on new loans Supporting
    8.61% Aug 2026, 28th percentile since 2014 A year ago 8.61%
    cheap
  5. Real repo rate Primary. A high real rate counts as dear money
    0.43% Aug 2026, 40th percentile since 2001 A year ago 5.25%
    in between
  6. Bank lending to individuals, growth Supporting
    16.2% Mar 2026, 57th percentile since 2020 A year ago 13.8%
    out of date

Behind the answer

The repo rate is 5.25% and inflation 4.8%: a real rate of 0.4%

The RBI's repo rate at each month-end against consumer inflation a year earlier. The shaded gap is the real policy rate: wide when policy is tight after inflation, narrow or negative when money is cheap.

Repo rateCPI inflation

2015202020250%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%5%5%2015202020250%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%Repo rate 5%CPI inflation 5%201220142016201820202022202420260%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%Repo rate 5%CPI inflation 5%

Source: IndiaDataHub (RBI, FBIL, CCIL series); CPI from MoSPI / National Statistics Office, eSankhyiki API (api.mospi.gov.in), GODL licence

Table
DateRepo rateCPI inflation
Aug 20265%5%
Mar 20265%3%
Oct 20256%0%
May 20256%3%
Dec 20247%5%
Jul 20247%4%
Feb 20247%5%
Sept 20237%5%
Apr 20237%5%
Nov 20226%6%
Jun 20225%7%
Jan 20224%6%
Aug 20214%5%
Mar 20214%6%
Oct 20204%8%
May 20204%6%
Dec 20195%7%
Jul 20196%3%
Feb 20196%3%
Sept 20187%4%
Apr 20186%5%
Nov 20176%5%
Jun 20176%1%
Jan 20176%3%
Aug 20167%5%
Mar 20167%5%
Oct 20157%5%
May 20158%5%
Dec 20148%4%
Jul 20148%7%
Feb 20148%8%
Sept 20138%10%
Apr 20138%8%
Nov 20128%10%
Jun 20128%10%
Jan 20129%6%

The overnight call rate is 16 basis points below the repo rate: the banks have surplus cash

When banks have spare cash, they lend it overnight below the repo rate; when they are short, the call rate rises above it. The band marks 10 basis points either side. The lower panel is the surplus cash the RBI absorbs (positive) or the shortfall it lends (negative).

Call rate minus repo rate−100 bps0 bps100 bps−16 bpsSurplus cash in the banking system2020202220242026−5 lakh cr05 lakh cr10 lakh cr3 lakh crCall rate minus repo rate−150 bps−100 bps−50 bps0 bps50 bps100 bps−16 bpsSurplus cash in the banking system2020202220242026−5 lakh cr05 lakh cr10 lakh cr3 lakh crCall rate minus repo rate−150 bps−100 bps−50 bps0 bps50 bps100 bps−16 bpsSurplus cash in the banking system2020202120222023202420252026−4 lakh cr−2 lakh cr02 lakh cr4 lakh cr6 lakh cr8 lakh cr10 lakh cr3 lakh cr

Source: Reserve Bank of India / CCIL money-market rates (weighted average call rate, TREPS, market repo), via India Data Hub; IndiaDataHub (RBI, FBIL, CCIL series)

Table
DateCall rate minus repoSurplus (+) or deficit (−)
Oct 2026−16 bps–
Jul 2026−13 bps2 lakh cr
May 2026−7 bps2 lakh cr
Feb 2026−14 bps4 lakh cr
Dec 20258 bps2 lakh cr
Sept 20253 bps63,522
Jul 2025−21 bps4 lakh cr
Apr 2025–2 lakh cr
Jan 202510 bps−3,429
Nov 2024–2 lakh cr
Aug 202421 bps1 lakh cr
Jun 202422 bps−40,126
Mar 2024–1 lakh cr
Jan 202428 bps−2 lakh cr
Oct 202326 bps−84,552
Aug 20239 bps2 lakh cr
May 2023−15 bps2 lakh cr
Mar 2023−19 bps1 lakh cr
Dec 202221 bps59,325
Oct 2022−6 bps1 lakh cr
Jul 20228 bps34,340
May 2022−30 bps5 lakh cr
Feb 2022−71 bps2 lakh cr
Dec 2021−70 bps7 lakh cr
Sept 2021−78 bps3 lakh cr
Jul 2021−86 bps7 lakh cr
Apr 2021−77 bps5 lakh cr
Jan 2021−77 bps7 lakh cr
Nov 2020−79 bps7 lakh cr
Aug 2020−58 bps7 lakh cr
Jun 2020−45 bps7 lakh cr
Mar 202034 bps5 lakh cr
Jan 2020−17 bps3 lakh cr
Oct 2019−7 bps2 lakh cr
Aug 2019−8 bps2 lakh cr
May 2019−12 bps31,525
Mar 2019−10 bps30,958

Since the RBI began cutting in Feb 2025, the repo rate has moved −125 bps, banks' rate on new loans −72 bps and on new deposits −95 bps

Change since the month before the first move of the current cycle (7 Feb 2025), in basis points. When the lines for loans and deposits sit closer to zero than the repo line, only part of the change has reached borrowers and savers so far.

Repo rateRate on new loansRate on new deposits

20252026−100 bps−50 bps0 bps−72 bps−95 bps−125 bps2025AprJulOct2026AprJul−100 bps−50 bps0 bpsRate on new loans −72bpsRate on new deposits −95bpsRepo rate −125 bps2025AprJulOct2026AprJul−100 bps−50 bps0 bpsRate on new loans −72 bpsRate on new deposits −95 bpsRepo rate −125 bps

Source: Reserve Bank of India: Handbook of Statistics on the Indian Economy, Monetary Policy Statements and MPC minutes, lending and deposit rate releases, auction results press releases; via Data bank source rbi

Table
DateRepo rateRate on new loansRate on new deposits
Sept 2026−125 bps––
Aug 2026−125 bps−72 bps−95 bps
Jul 2026−125 bps−81 bps−77 bps
Jun 2026−125 bps−80 bps−67 bps
May 2026−125 bps−82 bps−82 bps
Apr 2026−125 bps−83 bps−86 bps
Mar 2026−125 bps−93 bps−55 bps
Feb 2026−125 bps−89 bps−97 bps
Jan 2026−125 bps−84 bps−96 bps
Dec 2025−125 bps−105 bps−95 bps
Nov 2025−100 bps−62 bps−103 bps
Oct 2025−100 bps−72 bps−105 bps
Sept 2025−100 bps−94 bps−101 bps
Aug 2025−100 bps−61 bps−106 bps
Jul 2025−100 bps−52 bps−101 bps
Jun 2025−100 bps−71 bps−87 bps
May 2025−50 bps−13 bps−51 bps
Apr 2025−50 bps−7 bps−28 bps
Mar 2025−25 bps+2 bps+10 bps
Feb 2025−25 bps+7 bps−7 bps
Jan 20250 bps0 bps0 bps

Broad money is growing 16.6% a year and bank lending to individuals 16.2% (as of Mar 2026)

Year-on-year growth of broad money (M3) and of bank loans to individuals, both adjusted for the July 2023 HDFC merger by the RBI's own series. Fast growth means money is plentiful and households are borrowing.

Broad money (M3)Lending to individuals

202020250%5%10%15%20%25%17%16%2016201820202022202420260%5%10%15%20%25%Broad money (M3) 17%Lending to individuals16%2016201820202022202420260%5%10%15%20%25%Broad money (M3) 17%Lending to individuals 16%

Source: Reserve Bank of India, Database on Indian Economy (DBIE) Data Query, via Data bank rbi_dbie_cas_money

Table
DateBroad money (M3)Lending to individuals
Sept 202617%–
May 202612%–
Jan 202610%–
Sept 20259%14%
May 20259%14%
Feb 20259%14%
Nov 202411%–
Jul 202410%–
Mar 202411%–
Dec 202312%–
Aug 202311%18%
May 202310%–
Jan 202310%20%
Oct 20229%–
Jun 20228%18%
Mar 20229%–
Nov 202110%15%
Jul 202110%15%
Apr 202112%–
Jan 202113%–
Sept 202013%–
May 202012%14%
Feb 202010%–
Oct 201911%–
Jul 201910%–
Mar 201911%–
Dec 201810%–
Aug 201810%–
Apr 201810%–
Jan 201810%–
Sept 20176%–
Jun 20177%–
Feb 20176%–
Oct 201610%–
Jul 201610%–
Mar 201610%–
Dec 201511%–
Aug 201511%–
May 201512%–
Jan 201511%–

What has changed

What history says

Cheap money and later returns

Not tested

We have not tested whether cheap or dear money has been followed by better or worse returns for Indian shares, so this page does not say it. The RBI page tracks how much of each change in the repo rate has reached borrowers.

What would change the answer

One measure moving a step would make the answer “Fairly cheap”: real repo rate.

Real repo rate
0.43% now. It would count as cheap below −0.60%, and as dear above 2.28%.
Call rate minus repo rate
−16 bps now. It stops counting as cheap above −10 bps.
Change in the repo rate over the last year
−25 bps now. It stops counting as cheap above −1 bps.

Coming up

The readings and the dashboards

Real repo rate 0.43%usual
RBI repo rate 5.25%below usual
Banks' average rate on new loans 8.61%usual
Money supply (M3) growth 16.6%above usual
Bank lending to individuals, growth 16.2%usual

the usual range: the middle half of all readingstodayEach line runs from the lowest reading ever to the highest.

How these answers are made: the dossier method. Historical research, not investment advice.