DossiersAnswer as of 5 Oct 2026

How much speculation is there?

Above usual

Borrowed money to hold shares is 32 bps of market value, the highest reading since 2017; option premium is 0.45× the value of shares traded, higher than 61% of months since 2015.

Of the five measures that vote, two say heavy and three sit in between.

todaya month agoa year ago

The evidence

Each measure against its own history, strongest first. The bar runs from the lowest reading to the highest; the shaded part is the middle half. A measure votes heavy at or above the 70th percentile of its history and light at or below the 30th, unless its note says otherwise. Primary measures count double.

Margin book as a share of market value Primary

32 bps 1 Oct 2026, 100th percentile since 2017 A year ago 24 bps

heavy
IPO heat Primary. 0.7 or more counts as heavy, 0.3 or less as light

0.78 Sept 2026 A year ago 0.64

heavy
Options premium against cash turnover Primary. SEBI's rules from late 2024 cut option trading; history includes the peak

0.45× Sept 2026, 61st percentile since 2015 A year ago 0.50×

in between
Median IPO listing-day gain, last 3 months Supporting

16% Sept 2026, 56th percentile since 2016 A year ago 6%

in between
Cash turnover as a share of market value, annualised Supporting

61% Sept 2026, 48th percentile since 1999 A year ago 53%

in between

Behind the answer

Money borrowed to hold shares is 32 basis points of market value, the highest since the facility became material in 2017

The margin trading book (money brokers have lent clients to hold shares) as a share of the market value of NSE-listed companies, daily since mid-2017. A year ago it was 23 basis points. Borrowed positions are sold when prices fall fast, so a larger book means more forced selling in a sharp fall; we have not yet tested how much that has mattered.

Source: NSE margin trading disclosure (daily archive), via Data bank nse_mtf eras

Table

Date	Margin book, bps of market value
Oct 2026	32 bps
Jul 2026	28 bps
Apr 2026	26 bps
Jan 2026	24 bps
Oct 2025	24 bps
Jul 2025	19 bps
Apr 2025	17 bps
Jan 2025	19 bps
Oct 2024	17 bps
Jul 2024	16 bps
Apr 2024	15 bps
Jan 2024	14 bps
Oct 2023	13 bps
Jul 2023	10 bps
Apr 2023	10 bps
Jan 2023	10 bps
Oct 2022	10 bps
Jul 2022	7 bps
Apr 2022	10 bps
Jan 2022	9 bps
Oct 2021	8 bps
Jul 2021	8 bps
Apr 2021	6 bps
Jan 2021	4 bps
Oct 2020	4 bps
Jul 2020	4 bps
Apr 2020	3 bps
Jan 2020	4 bps
Oct 2019	3 bps
Jul 2019	3 bps
Apr 2019	3 bps
Jan 2019	3 bps
Oct 2018	2 bps
Jul 2018	3 bps
Apr 2018	3 bps
Jan 2018	3 bps
Oct 2017	1 bps
Jul 2017	0 bps

Option premium is 0.45× the value of shares traded, against a peak of 1.31× in Mar 2023

Premium paid for options in the month divided by cash-market turnover, monthly since 2015. It measures option buying against ordinary share trading. SEBI tightened the rules for index derivatives in late 2024, so the history before and after is not strictly comparable.

Source: NSE business growth (equity cash 'cm' and equity derivatives 'fo' segments), via Data bank nse_business_growth_history

Table

Date	Option premium ÷ cash turnover
Sept 2026	0.45×
May 2026	0.47×
Jan 2026	0.56×
Sept 2025	0.50×
May 2025	0.54×
Jan 2025	0.56×
Sept 2024	0.51×
May 2024	0.60×
Jan 2024	0.67×
Sept 2023	0.72×
May 2023	0.95×
Jan 2023	1.16×
Sept 2022	0.90×
May 2022	0.75×
Jan 2022	0.56×
Sept 2021	0.38×
May 2021	0.25×
Jan 2021	0.23×
Sept 2020	0.19×
May 2020	0.16×
Jan 2020	0.15×
Sept 2019	0.16×
May 2019	0.12×
Jan 2019	0.12×
Sept 2018	0.12×
May 2018	0.09×
Jan 2018	0.08×
Sept 2017	0.08×
May 2017	0.07×
Jan 2017	0.09×
Sept 2016	0.08×
May 2016	0.10×
Jan 2016	0.11×
Sept 2015	0.12×
May 2015	0.09×

120 mainboard IPOs listed in the last 12 months, against 90 in the 12 before; the median listing gain is 15%

Mainboard IPOs listed each month (columns) and the median first-day gain of the last three months' listings (below), on one time axis.

Source: NSE past issues list (issue price, issue dates) via Data bank nse_ipo_history; prices from NSE bhavcopy, adjusted for splits, bonuses, rights and demergers (compute/prices.py); benchmarks: Nifty 500, Nifty500 Equal Weight and Nifty Smallcap 250 price indices (niftyindices)

Table

Date	Value	Median listing gain
Oct 2026	–	15%
Jun 2026	3	7%
Feb 2026	3	1%
Oct 2025	15	4%
Jun 2025	5	3%
Feb 2025	4	27%
Oct 2024	7	27%
Jun 2024	4	27%
Feb 2024	9	12%
Oct 2023	6	16%
Jun 2023	1	11%
Feb 2023	0	−6%
Oct 2022	2	41%
Jun 2022	2	5%
Feb 2022	2	10%
Oct 2021	2	7%
Jun 2021	4	22%
Feb 2021	5	45%
Oct 2020	5	19%
Jun 2020	0	0%
Feb 2020	0	51%
Oct 2019	2	17%
Jun 2019	0	15%
Feb 2019	2	−3%
Oct 2018	2	−9%
Jun 2018	0	−1%
Feb 2018	2	9%
Oct 2017	6	12%
Jun 2017	3	3%
Feb 2017	1	33%
Oct 2016	2	17%
Jun 2016	0	13%
Feb 2016	3	0%

A year of cash trading is 61% of market value, against 244% at the 2000 peak

NSE cash-market turnover over a year as a share of the market's value, monthly since 1999: how often shares change hands.

Source: NSE Business growth (historical) APIs for every segment, via Data bank nse_business_growth_history

Table

Date	Turnover ÷ market value
Sept 2026	61%
Dec 2025	50%
Mar 2025	60%
Jun 2024	88%
Sept 2023	66%
Dec 2022	47%
Mar 2022	63%
Jun 2021	77%
Sept 2020	91%
Dec 2019	53%
Mar 2019	61%
Jun 2018	49%
Sept 2017	55%
Dec 2016	37%
Mar 2016	48%
Jun 2015	38%
Sept 2014	47%
Dec 2013	40%
Mar 2013	45%
Jun 2012	40%
Sept 2011	48%
Dec 2010	47%
Mar 2010	57%
Jun 2009	124%
Sept 2008	80%
Dec 2007	74%
Mar 2007	59%
Jun 2006	65%
Sept 2005	82%
Dec 2004	80%
Mar 2004	106%
Jun 2003	108%
Sept 2002	97%
Dec 2001	130%
Mar 2001	109%
Jun 2000	159%
Sept 1999	97%

What has changed

A month ago the answer was the same: “Above usual”.
A year ago the answer was “Usual”.
Over the year, IPO heat went from in between to heavy.
Over the year, two measures went from light to in between: cash turnover as a share of market value (annualised) and median IPO listing-day gain (last 3 months).
The largest move over the year: median IPO listing-day gain, last 3 months, from 6% to 16% (from the 28th to the 56th percentile of its history).

What history says

IPOs from hot months returned 3.1% on average in their first year, against 10.3% for the rest

Mainboard IPOs grouped by whether they listed in a hot month (by the IPO heat measure). A difference that size could be chance (p = 0.26): issues vary too much for the averages to say much.

Source: The IPO study (docs/research/ipo_spec.md).

Table

	Value
Hot months	3.1%	221 issues
Other months	10.3%	157 issues

IPOs from hot markets

Failed its pre-registered test

Mainboard IPOs listed in hot months returned 3.1% on average over their first year against 10.3% for the rest. A gap that size could be chance (p = 0.26, from 221 and 157 issues).

The IPO study

Leverage and later falls

Not tested

Whether a large margin book has been followed by deeper falls is planned (evidence C5) but not yet run.

What would change the answer

One measure moving a step would make the answer “Heavy”: options premium against cash turnover.

One measure moving a step would make the answer “Usual”: margin book as a share of market value.

Margin book as a share of market value: 32 bps now. It stops counting as heavy below 14 bps (55% lower).
Options premium against cash turnover: 0.45× now. It would count as heavy above 0.52× (17% higher), and as light below 0.11×.
IPO heat: 0.78 now. It stops counting as heavy below 0.70.