The rupee and the market
Not tested
We have not tested how moves in the rupee have related to later returns for Indian shares or to foreign flows, so this page does not say it.
DossiersAnswer as of 5 Oct 2026
What is the rupee doing?
Weakening
At 96.31 to the dollar, the rupee has weakened 1.0% over three months and 8.5% over a year, while the dollar itself has risen 1.1% against all its trading partners.
Of the two measures that vote, one says weakening and one sits in between.
The evidence
Each measure against its own history, strongest first. The bar runs from the lowest reading to the highest; the shaded part is the middle half. A measure votes weakening at or above the 70th percentile of its history and strengthening at or below the 30th, unless its note says otherwise. Primary measures count double.
- +8.5% 2 Oct 2026, 79th percentile since 1994 A year ago +5.7%weakening
- +1.0% 2 Oct 2026, 61st percentile since 1993 A year ago +4.1%in between
- 11.2 18 Sept 2026, 52nd percentile since 2023 A year ago 11.5context
- The broad dollar, change over a year+1.1% 2 Oct 2026, 50th percentile since 2007 A year ago −1.7%context
- 91.8 Jul 2026, 23rd percentile since 2004 A year ago 97.1context
Behind the answer
The rupee has weakened 8.5% against the dollar in a year; the dollar rose 1.1% against all its partners
One-year change in rupees per dollar (up means a weaker rupee) beside the one-year change in the broad dollar against all its trading partners. When both rise together, the dollar is strong everywhere; when the rupee line rises alone, the weakness is the rupee's own.
Rupees per dollar, one-year changeBroad dollar, one-year change
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.10 Foreign Exchange Rates (DTWEXBGS, DEXINUS), via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table
| Date | Rupees per dollar, one-year change | Broad dollar, one-year change |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | 8% | 1% |
| Apr 2026 | 9% | −4% |
| Oct 2025 | 6% | −2% |
| Apr 2025 | 2% | 4% |
| Oct 2024 | 1% | −1% |
| Apr 2024 | 2% | 1% |
| Oct 2023 | 1% | −3% |
| Apr 2023 | 8% | 3% |
| Oct 2022 | 10% | 11% |
| Apr 2022 | 2% | 3% |
| Oct 2021 | 3% | −1% |
| Apr 2021 | −2% | −7% |
| Oct 2020 | 3% | −1% |
| Apr 2020 | 10% | 7% |
| Oct 2019 | −4% | 2% |
| Apr 2019 | 6% | 7% |
| Oct 2018 | 14% | 4% |
| Apr 2018 | 1% | −6% |
| Oct 2017 | −3% | −3% |
| Apr 2017 | −3% | 4% |
| Oct 2016 | 3% | 4% |
| Apr 2016 | 6% | 4% |
| Oct 2015 | 5% | 12% |
| Apr 2015 | 4% | 13% |
| Oct 2014 | 0% | 6% |
| Apr 2014 | 12% | 2% |
| Oct 2013 | 13% | 1% |
| Apr 2013 | 4% | 2% |
| Oct 2012 | 9% | 1% |
| Apr 2012 | 17% | 5% |
| Oct 2011 | 12% | −0% |
| Apr 2011 | −0% | −7% |
| Oct 2010 | −4% | −1% |
| Apr 2010 | −11% | −7% |
| Oct 2009 | −7% | −10% |
| Apr 2009 | 24% | 15% |
| Oct 2008 | 27% | 14% |
| Apr 2008 | −2% | −9% |
| Oct 2007 | −13% | −8% |
| Apr 2007 | −9% | −3% |
₹96.31 to the dollar, from ₹32.10 in 1993: about 3.3% a year of depreciation
Rupees per US dollar, weekly, on a log scale so equal slopes are equal rates of change. A year ago: ₹88.65.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.10 Foreign Exchange Rates (DTWEXBGS, DEXINUS), via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table
| Date | Rupees per dollar |
|---|---|
| Oct 2026 | 96 |
| Nov 2025 | 89 |
| Jan 2025 | 86 |
| Mar 2024 | 84 |
| May 2023 | 83 |
| Jul 2022 | 80 |
| Sept 2021 | 74 |
| Nov 2020 | 74 |
| Jan 2020 | 72 |
| Mar 2019 | 71 |
| Apr 2018 | 67 |
| Jun 2017 | 64 |
| Aug 2016 | 67 |
| Oct 2015 | 65 |
| Dec 2014 | 63 |
| Feb 2014 | 62 |
| Apr 2013 | 55 |
| Jun 2012 | 55 |
| Jul 2011 | 44 |
| Sept 2010 | 45 |
| Nov 2009 | 47 |
| Jan 2009 | 49 |
| Mar 2008 | 40 |
| May 2007 | 41 |
| Jul 2006 | 46 |
| Sept 2005 | 44 |
| Oct 2004 | 45 |
| Dec 2003 | 46 |
| Feb 2003 | 48 |
| Apr 2002 | 49 |
| Jun 2001 | 47 |
| Aug 2000 | 46 |
| Oct 1999 | 44 |
| Dec 1998 | 43 |
| Jan 1998 | 39 |
| Mar 1997 | 36 |
| May 1996 | 35 |
| Jul 1995 | 31 |
| Sept 1994 | 31 |
| Nov 1993 | 31 |
In real terms against 40 currencies, the rupee is cheap: cheaper than in 78% of months since 2004
The RBI's real effective exchange rate: the rupee against a basket of 40 currencies, adjusted for relative inflation. Higher means Indian goods are dearer abroad. The band is the middle half of its history (93 to 103). Latest: Jul 2026.
Source: Reserve Bank of India, Database on Indian Economy (DBIE) Data Query, via Data bank rbi_dbie_cas_money
Table
| Date | REER (40 currencies) |
|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | 92 |
| Dec 2025 | 95 |
| May 2025 | 101 |
| Oct 2024 | 107 |
| Mar 2024 | 105 |
| Aug 2023 | 105 |
| Jan 2023 | 100 |
| Jun 2022 | 104 |
| Nov 2021 | 106 |
| Apr 2021 | 102 |
| Sept 2020 | 106 |
| Feb 2020 | 104 |
| Jul 2019 | 105 |
| Dec 2018 | 101 |
| May 2018 | 102 |
| Oct 2017 | 106 |
| Mar 2017 | 104 |
| Aug 2016 | 102 |
| Jan 2016 | 101 |
| Jun 2015 | 99 |
| Nov 2014 | 98 |
| Apr 2014 | 93 |
| Sept 2013 | 89 |
| Feb 2013 | 97 |
| Jul 2012 | 93 |
| Dec 2011 | 92 |
| May 2011 | 100 |
| Oct 2010 | 102 |
| Mar 2010 | 98 |
| Aug 2009 | 91 |
| Jan 2009 | 88 |
| Jun 2008 | 88 |
| Nov 2007 | 98 |
| Apr 2007 | 94 |
| Sept 2006 | 89 |
| Feb 2006 | 91 |
| Jul 2005 | 94 |
| Dec 2004 | 89 |
| May 2004 | 89 |
The RBI sold a net US$42.9 billion in the 12 months to Jul 2026; reserves cover 11.2 months of imports
The RBI's net purchases of dollars in the spot market each month (selling dollars supports the rupee) and its foreign exchange reserves in months of imports.
Source: Reserve Bank of India Bulletin, RBI's sale/purchase of foreign currency and outstanding forward position, via India Data Hub
Table
| Date | Value | Import cover |
|---|---|---|
| Sept 2026 | – | 11 |
| Jul 2026 | – | 10 |
| Jun 2026 | – | 10 |
| Apr 2026 | – | 11 |
| Mar 2026 | −10 | – |
| Jan 2026 | – | 11 |
| Dec 2025 | −10 | – |
| Oct 2025 | – | 11 |
| Sept 2025 | −8 | – |
| Jul 2025 | – | 11 |
| May 2025 | – | 11 |
| Apr 2025 | – | 11 |
| Feb 2025 | – | 11 |
| Jan 2025 | – | 11 |
| Nov 2024 | – | 11 |
| Oct 2024 | – | 12 |
| Aug 2024 | – | 12 |
| Jul 2024 | – | 12 |
| May 2024 | – | 11 |
| Apr 2024 | – | 11 |
| Feb 2024 | – | 11 |
| Jan 2024 | 2 | – |
| Nov 2023 | – | 11 |
| Sept 2023 | – | 10 |
| Aug 2023 | – | 10 |
| Jun 2023 | – | 10 |
| Dec 2022 | 4 | – |
| Apr 2022 | 2 | – |
| Aug 2021 | 4 | – |
| Dec 2020 | 4 | – |
| Apr 2020 | −1 | – |
| Aug 2019 | −4 | – |
| Dec 2018 | 1 | – |
| Apr 2018 | −2 | – |
| Aug 2017 | 3 | – |
| Dec 2016 | 0 | – |
| Apr 2016 | 1 | – |
| Aug 2015 | −2 | – |
Over the last four quarters: current account deficit US$13 billion, portfolio flows −US$21 billion, direct investment +US$5 billion
Each line is a sum over four quarters, US$ billion, which irons out the seasonal swings. A current account deficit has to be paid for by capital coming in; when portfolio money leaves at the same time, the rupee carries the strain. Latest quarter: Sept 2025.
Current accountPortfolio flows (FPI)Direct investment (FDI)
Source: Reserve Bank of India, Database on Indian Economy (DBIE) Data Query, via Data bank rbi_dbie_cas_money
Table
| Date | Current account | Portfolio flows (FPI) | Direct investment (FDI) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 2025 | −13 | −21 | 5 |
| Mar 2025 | −23 | 4 | 1 |
| Sept 2024 | −31 | 44 | 10 |
| Mar 2024 | −26 | 44 | 10 |
| Sept 2023 | −38 | 24 | 12 |
| Mar 2023 | −67 | −5 | 28 |
| Sept 2022 | −84 | −29 | 38 |
| Mar 2022 | −39 | −17 | 39 |
| Sept 2021 | −14 | 33 | 40 |
| Mar 2021 | 24 | 36 | 44 |
| Sept 2020 | 32 | 2 | 46 |
| Mar 2020 | −25 | 1 | 43 |
| Sept 2019 | −45 | 15 | 35 |
| Mar 2019 | −57 | −1 | 31 |
| Sept 2018 | −62 | −0 | 28 |
| Mar 2018 | −49 | 22 | 30 |
| Sept 2017 | −32 | 14 | 34 |
| Mar 2017 | −14 | 8 | 36 |
| Sept 2016 | −11 | 7 | 40 |
| Mar 2016 | −22 | −4 | 36 |
| Sept 2015 | −23 | 17 | 33 |
| Mar 2015 | −27 | 42 | 31 |
| Sept 2014 | −24 | 34 | 22 |
| Mar 2014 | −32 | 5 | 22 |
| Sept 2013 | −77 | 14 | 22 |
| Mar 2013 | −88 | 27 | 20 |
| Sept 2012 | −80 | 22 | 18 |
| Mar 2012 | −78 | 17 | 22 |
| Sept 2011 | −54 | 8 | 20 |
| Mar 2011 | −48 | 30 | 12 |
| Sept 2010 | −55 | 38 | 13 |
| Mar 2010 | −38 | 32 | 18 |
| Sept 2009 | −26 | 9 | 20 |
| Mar 2009 | −28 | −14 | 22 |
| Sept 2008 | −23 | 3 | 26 |
| Mar 2008 | −16 | 27 | 16 |
| Sept 2007 | −8 | 24 | 9 |
| Mar 2007 | −10 | 7 | 8 |
| Sept 2006 | −11 | 9 | 4 |
| Mar 2006 | −10 | 12 | 3 |
What has changed
- A month ago the answer was “Steady”.
- A year ago the answer was the same: “Weakening”.
- Over the month, rupee per dollar (change over three months) went from strengthening to in between.
- Over the year, rupee per dollar (change over three months) went from weakening to in between.
- Over the year, rupee per dollar (change over a year) went from in between to weakening.
- The largest move over the year: rupee per dollar, change over three months, from +4.1% to +1.0% (from the 89th to the 61st percentile of its history).
What history says
What would change the answer
One measure moving a step would make the answer “Weakening fast”: rupee per dollar, change over three months.
One measure moving a step would make the answer “Steady”: rupee per dollar, change over three months.
- Rupee per dollar, change over three months
- +1.0% now. It would count as weakening above +1.7%, and as strengthening below −0.4%.
- Rupee per dollar, change over a year
- +8.5% now. It stops counting as weakening below +6.3% (26% lower).
The readings and the dashboards
- The dollar, US rates and oil
- The RBI: reserves, intervention and the external accounts
- Foreign investors' flows
the usual range: the middle half of all readingstodayEach line runs from the lowest reading ever to the highest.
How these answers are made: the dossier method. Historical research, not investment advice.