DossiersAnswer as of 5 Oct 2026

How is the economy doing?

Strong

The economy grew 7.8% in real terms in the latest quarter, higher than 76% of quarters since 2012, and consumer inflation is 4.8% against the RBI's 4% target.

Of the four measures that vote, four say strong.

todaya month agoa year ago

The evidence

Each measure against its own history, strongest first. The bar runs from the lowest reading to the highest; the shaded part is the middle half. A measure votes strong at or above the 70th percentile of its history and weak at or below the 30th, unless its note says otherwise. Primary measures count double.

Industrial production, three-month average growth Primary. Smooths the calendar noise in single months

8.0% Aug 2026, 78th percentile since 1995 A year ago 3.3%

strong
Real GDP growth Primary

7.8% Apr–Jun 2026, 76th percentile since 2012 A year ago 7.7%

strong
CPI inflation Primary. 2.5% to 5.5% counts as strong (near the 4% target); outside 2% to 6%, weak

4.8% Aug 2026 A year ago 0.3%

strong
Core CPI inflation Supporting. Same bands

4.4% Aug 2026 A year ago 4.4%

strong
Bank credit growth Supporting. Short history, from 2018

14.9% 6 Feb 2026, 75th percentile since 2018 A year ago 11.9%

out of date
Unemployment rate (PLFS) Context. Monthly survey from 2025: too short for a usual range

5.0% Aug 2026 A year ago 5.2%

context

Behind the answer

Real GVA grew 8.2% in Apr–Jun 2026; trade, transport, finance and property added the most, 4.5 points

Each quarter's growth in real gross value added (the dot) split into what each part of the economy contributed, in percentage points. Columns above zero add to growth; below zero, they subtract. From April 2022, after the lockdown base effects.

FarmingIndustry and constructionTrade, transport, finance and propertyPublic administration and other services

Source: MoSPI / National Statistics Office, eSankhyiki API (api.mospi.gov.in), GODL licence

Table

Date	Value
Apr 2026	8
Jan 2026	9
Oct 2025	8
Jul 2025	8
Apr 2025	7
Jan 2025	7
Oct 2024	8
Jul 2024	7
Apr 2024	7
Jan 2024	7
Oct 2023	7
Jul 2023	8
Apr 2023	7
Jan 2023	7
Oct 2022	5
Jul 2022	5
Apr 2022	12

Consumer inflation is 4.8%: food 5.7%, core 4.4%

Year-on-year consumer inflation, monthly, with the RBI's tolerance band of 2% to 6% shaded (the target is 4%). Food swings with the weather; core inflation (excluding food and fuel) is the underlying trend.

HeadlineFoodCore

Source: MoSPI / National Statistics Office, eSankhyiki API (api.mospi.gov.in), GODL licence

Table

Date	Headline	Food	Core
Aug 2026	5%	6%	4%
Apr 2026	3%	4%	3%
Dec 2025	1%	−2%	5%
Aug 2025	2%	0%	4%
Apr 2025	3%	2%	4%
Dec 2024	5%	8%	4%
Aug 2024	4%	5%	3%
Apr 2024	5%	8%	3%
Dec 2023	6%	9%	4%
Aug 2023	7%	9%	5%
Apr 2023	5%	4%	5%
Dec 2022	6%	5%	6%
Aug 2022	7%	8%	6%
Apr 2022	8%	8%	7%
Dec 2021	6%	4%	6%
Aug 2021	5%	4%	6%
Apr 2021	4%	3%	5%
Dec 2020	5%	4%	6%
Aug 2020	7%	8%	6%
Apr 2020	7%	10%	5%
Dec 2019	7%	12%	4%
Aug 2019	3%	3%	4%
Apr 2019	3%	1%	5%
Dec 2018	2%	−2%	6%
Aug 2018	4%	1%	6%
Apr 2018	5%	3%	6%
Dec 2017	5%	5%	5%
Aug 2017	3%	2%	4%
Apr 2017	3%	1%	5%
Dec 2016	3%	2%	5%
Aug 2016	5%	6%	5%
Apr 2016	5%	6%	5%
Dec 2015	6%	6%	5%
Aug 2015	4%	3%	4%
Apr 2015	5%	5%	4%
Dec 2014	4%	4%	4%
Aug 2014	7%	9%	6%
Apr 2014	8%	9%	8%

Industrial output grew 8.0% in Aug 2026; 8.0% on a three-month average

Growth of the index of industrial production (factories, mines and power) against a year earlier: columns for each month, the line for the three-month average, which smooths the calendar noise in single months. From April 2022, after the lockdown base effects.

monththree-month average

Source: MoSPI / National Statistics Office, eSankhyiki API (api.mospi.gov.in), GODL licence

Table

Date	Value
Aug 2026	8%
Jun 2026	9%
Apr 2026	5%
Feb 2026	4%
Dec 2025	7%
Oct 2025	−1%
Aug 2025	5%
Jun 2025	2%
Apr 2025	5%
Feb 2025	3%
Dec 2024	6%
Oct 2024	6%
Aug 2024	2%
Jun 2024	7%
Apr 2024	7%
Feb 2024	6%
Dec 2023	4%
Oct 2023	12%
Aug 2023	11%
Jun 2023	4%
Apr 2023	5%
Feb 2023	6%
Dec 2022	5%
Oct 2022	−4%
Aug 2022	−1%
Jun 2022	13%
Apr 2022	7%

Fastest-rising prices: personal care (15.2%) and restaurants and accommodation services (8.4%)

Inflation by CPI division in Aug 2026 (bars, the 2024 series), with Feb 2026 as the tick. Divisions in colour are above headline inflation (4.8%).

above headlinebelow headlinesix months earlier

Source: MoSPI via the Data bank (mospi_cpi, mospi_iip, mospi_wpi); the same releases the MoSPI MCP serves

Table

	Latest	six months earlier
Personal care, social protection and miscellaneous goods and services	15.2%	19.7%
Restaurants and accommodation services	8.4%	2.7%
Food and beverages	5.7%	3.4%
Paan, tobacco and intoxicants	4.7%	3.5%
Transport	4.6%	−0.1%
Education services	3.7%	3.3%
Clothing and footwear	3.6%	2.8%
Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance	2.7%	1.4%
Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels	2.6%	1.5%
Information and communication	2.0%	0.3%
Recreation, sport and culture	1.7%	2.2%
Health	1.3%	1.9%

Real GDP grew 7.8% and nominal GDP 10.3% in Apr–Jun 2026: prices across the economy rose about 2.5%

Growth of GDP against the same quarter a year earlier, after inflation (real) and before it (nominal). The gap is roughly the GDP deflator, the inflation of everything the economy produces.

NominalReal

Source: MoSPI / National Statistics Office, eSankhyiki API (api.mospi.gov.in), GODL licence

Table

Date	Nominal	Real
Apr 2026	10%	8%
Oct 2025	9%	8%
Apr 2025	8%	7%
Oct 2024	10%	7%
Apr 2024	10%	8%
Oct 2023	11%	8%
Apr 2023	11%	7%
Oct 2022	9%	5%
Apr 2022	26%	13%
Oct 2021	15%	6%
Apr 2021	33%	23%
Oct 2020	7%	2%
Apr 2020	−21%	−23%
Oct 2019	5%	3%
Apr 2019	8%	5%
Oct 2018	12%	6%
Apr 2018	14%	7%
Oct 2017	12%	7%
Apr 2017	10%	6%
Oct 2016	11%	9%
Apr 2016	12%	9%
Oct 2015	9%	7%
Apr 2015	11%	8%
Oct 2014	9%	6%
Apr 2014	14%	8%
Oct 2013	15%	7%
Apr 2013	11%	6%
Oct 2012	14%	5%
Apr 2012	13%	5%

Wholesale prices are up 9.9% on a year, consumer prices 4.8%

Wholesale prices move with commodities and feed into what companies pay; consumer prices are closer to what they charge. A wide gap between the two squeezes or lifts companies' margins, depending on which way it runs.

CPIWPI

Source: Office of the Economic Adviser (DPIIT), via MoSPI eSankhyiki

Table

Date	CPI	WPI
Aug 2026	5%	10%
Apr 2026	3%	8%
Dec 2025	1%	0%
Aug 2025	2%	0%
Apr 2025	3%	1%
Dec 2024	5%	2%
Aug 2024	4%	1%
Apr 2024	5%	1%
Dec 2023	6%	1%
Aug 2023	7%	−0%
Apr 2023	5%	−1%
Dec 2022	6%	5%
Aug 2022	7%	12%
Apr 2022	8%	15%
Dec 2021	6%	14%
Aug 2021	5%	12%
Apr 2021	4%	11%
Dec 2020	5%	2%
Aug 2020	7%	0%
Apr 2020	7%	−2%
Dec 2019	7%	3%
Aug 2019	3%	1%
Apr 2019	3%	3%
Dec 2018	2%	3%
Aug 2018	4%	5%
Apr 2018	5%	4%
Dec 2017	5%	4%
Aug 2017	3%	3%
Apr 2017	3%	4%
Dec 2016	3%	2%
Aug 2016	5%	1%
Apr 2016	5%	−1%
Dec 2015	6%	−2%
Aug 2015	4%	−6%
Apr 2015	5%	−3%
Dec 2014	4%	−1%
Aug 2014	7%	4%
Apr 2014	8%	5%

What has changed

A month ago the answer was the same: “Strong”.
A year ago the answer was “Mixed”.
Over the year, two measures went from weak to strong: industrial production (three-month average growth) and CPI inflation.
The largest move over the year: industrial production, three-month average growth, from 3.3% to 8.0% (from the 29th to the 78th percentile of its history).

What history says

The economy and the market

Not tested

We have not tested how GDP growth, industrial output or inflation have related to later returns for Indian shares, so this page does not say it. Growth figures are revised, sometimes by a lot, and the market is priced on what was known at the time.

What would change the answer

It would take two measures moving a step each to make the answer “Fairly strong”.

Real GDP growth: 7.8% now. It stops counting as strong below 7.5% (3% lower).
Industrial production, three-month average growth: 8.0% now. It stops counting as strong below 7.0% (13% lower).

Coming up

12 Oct 2026CPI inflation For Sep 2026 (expected)
14 Oct 2026WPI inflation For Sep 2026 (expected)
15 Oct 2026Unemployment (PLFS) For Sep 2026 (expected)

The readings and the dashboards

Real GDP growth

7.8%above usual

Industrial production growth

8.0%usual

CPI inflation

4.8%usual

Core CPI inflation

4.4%usual

WPI inflation

9.9%above usual

Unemployment rate (PLFS)

5.0%new series

the usual range: the middle half of all readingstodayEach line runs from the lowest reading ever to the highest.

How these answers are made: the dossier method. Historical research, not investment advice.