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DossiersAnswer as of 5 Oct 2026

Are most stocks taking part?

Fewer stocks strong than usual

The Nifty 500 has returned −5.4% over three months, and 50% of liquid stocks are above their 200-day average: the weakness is broad, not confined to a few large stocks.

Of the six measures that vote, two say weak and four sit in between.

todaya month agoa year ago

The evidence

Each measure against its own history, strongest first. The bar runs from the lowest reading to the highest; the shaded part is the middle half. A measure votes strong at or above the 70th percentile of its history and weak at or below the 30th, unless its note says otherwise. Primary measures count double.

  1. Net new 52-week highs Supporting
    −22 5 Oct 2026, 10th percentile since 2003 A year ago 25
    weak
  2. Stocks above their 50-day average Supporting
    30% 5 Oct 2026, 22nd percentile since 2003 A year ago 45%
    weak
  3. Equal-weight minus cap-weight Nifty 500, one year Primary. Positive when the average stock beats the index
    +4.0 pts 5 Oct 2026, 66th percentile since 2006 A year ago −1.5 pts
    in between
  4. Stocks above their 200-day average Primary
    50% 5 Oct 2026, 35th percentile since 2003 A year ago 54%
    in between
  5. Stocks 20% or more below their high Supporting. More stocks in their own bear markets counts as weak
    51% 5 Oct 2026, 58th percentile since 2003 A year ago 56%
    in between
  6. The median stock's fall from its 52-week high Supporting. A smaller fall counts as strong
    −20% 5 Oct 2026, 43rd percentile since 2003 A year ago −23%
    in between

Behind the answer

Over the year the Nifty 500 fell 4.3%; the share of stocks in long-term uptrends went from 54% to 50%

The index above, the share of liquid NSE stocks above their own 200-day average below, on one time axis. When the index makes new highs while the lower line falls, fewer stocks are carrying it; when both fall, the weakness is wide.

Nifty 500, total return (log)122Stocks above their 200-day average2022202420260%50%100%half50%Nifty 500, total return (log)122Stocks above their 200-day average202220232024202520260%50%100%half50%Nifty 500, total return (log)122Stocks above their 200-day average202220232024202520260%20%40%60%80%100%half50%

Source: NSE Indices; NSE bhavcopy via tipsheet pipeline

Table
DateNifty 500Stocks above 200-day
Oct 2026250%
Aug 20262–
Jul 20262–
May 20262–
Apr 20261–
Feb 20262–
Jan 20262–
Nov 20252–
Oct 20252–
Aug 20252–
Jul 20252–
May 20252–
Apr 20251–
Feb 20251–
Jan 20252–
Nov 20241–
Oct 20242–
Aug 20242–
Jul 20242–
May 20241–
Apr 20241–
Feb 2024183%
Jan 20241–
Nov 2023186%
Oct 20231–
Aug 2023182%
Jul 20231–
May 20231–
Apr 20231–
Feb 20231–
Jan 20231–
Nov 2022158%
Oct 20221–
Aug 20221–
Jul 20221–
May 2022137%
Apr 20221–
Feb 20221–
Jan 20221–
Nov 2021175%

Over the last year the average Nifty 500 stock beat the index by 4.0 percentage points

The one-year return of the equal-weighted Nifty 500 minus the cap-weighted one. Above zero, the typical company did better than the index (the largest companies lagged); below zero, a few large companies carried it. The average stock has been ahead in 48% of weeks since 2003.

2010201520202025−40 pts−20 pts0 pts+20 pts+40 pts+60 pts+80 pts+72 pts, Mar 2010+4 pts2010201520202025−40 pts−20 pts0 pts+20 pts+40 pts+60 pts+80 pts+72 pts, Mar 2010+4 pts2010201520202025−40 pts−20 pts0 pts+20 pts+40 pts+60 pts+80 pts+72 pts, Mar 2010−24 pts, Sept 2006+4 pts
Table
DateEqual weight minus cap weight
Oct 2026+4 pts
Apr 2026+1 pts
Sept 2025−2 pts
Mar 2025+1 pts
Sept 2024+10 pts
Mar 2024+19 pts
Sept 2023+13 pts
Feb 2023+1 pts
Aug 2022−3 pts
Feb 2022+16 pts
Aug 2021+30 pts
Jan 2021+6 pts
Jul 2020−3 pts
Jan 2020−13 pts
Jul 2019−14 pts
Jan 2019−19 pts
Jun 2018−10 pts
Dec 2017+11 pts
Jun 2017+8 pts
Dec 2016−2 pts
Jun 20160 pts
Nov 2015+7 pts
May 2015+11 pts
Nov 2014+31 pts
May 2014+4 pts
Nov 2013−18 pts
Apr 2013−14 pts
Oct 2012−4 pts
Apr 2012−2 pts
Oct 2011−4 pts
Apr 2011−4 pts
Sept 2010+15 pts
Mar 2010+72 pts
Sept 2009+9 pts
Mar 2009−6 pts
Aug 20080 pts
Feb 2008−5 pts
Aug 2007−5 pts
Feb 2007−14 pts
Aug 2006−17 pts

22 more stocks made 52-week lows than highs this week

Stocks at a 52-week high minus stocks at a 52-week low, weekly. Deep troughs mark broad sell-offs; long stretches above zero mark broad advances.

20102020−400−2000200185, Feb 2024−417, Mar 2020−2220052010201520202025−400−2000200185, Feb 2024−417, Mar 2020−2220052010201520202025−400−2000200185, Feb 2024−417, Mar 2020−22

Source: NSE bhavcopy via tipsheet pipeline

Table
DateNet new highs
Oct 2026−22
Mar 2026−56
Aug 202521
Dec 2024−10
May 202463
Oct 202362
Mar 2023−33
Aug 202226
Jan 202261
Jun 202194
Oct 202019
Mar 2020−30
Aug 2019−135
Jan 2019−5
Jun 20189
Nov 201735
Apr 201776
Sept 201642
Jan 2016−11
Jun 201513
Nov 201431
Apr 201427
Sept 20133
Feb 2013−25
Jul 201210
Dec 2011−5
Apr 2011−1
Sept 201027
Feb 20101
Jul 200914
Dec 2008−7
May 2008−2
Oct 200747
Mar 20072
Jul 2006−1
Dec 200519
May 200514
Oct 200410
Mar 20044

32% of NSE's indices and 50% of its stocks are above their 200-day averages

Two ways of counting participation on one scale: across stocks (each liquid stock counts once) and across NSE's indices (sectors, themes and strategies).

StocksIndices

20102015202020250%20%40%60%80%100%50%32%20102015202020250%20%40%60%80%100%Stocks 50%Indices 32%2010201220142016201820202022202420260%20%40%60%80%100%Stocks 50%Indices 32%
Table
DateStocksIndices
Oct 202650%32%
Apr 202638%41%
Nov 202551%91%
May 202539%61%
Dec 202451%56%
Jul 202482%99%
Feb 202483%99%
Sept 202388%99%
Mar 202339%28%
Oct 202255%73%
Apr 202253%50%
Nov 202167%98%
Jul 202195%99%
Jan 202192%99%
Aug 202078%92%
Mar 20207%6%
Oct 201941%63%
May 201941%64%
Nov 2018–100%
Jun 201834%53%
Jan 201881%99%
Aug 201768%94%
Mar 201771%97%
Sept 201674%97%
Apr 2016–100%
Nov 201554%29%
Jun 201549%51%
Jan 201575%96%
Aug 201490%–
Mar 201482%100%
Oct 201343%65%
May 201347%84%
Dec 201273%98%
Jun 201251%72%
Jan 201221%7%
Jul 201138%27%
Feb 201122%9%
Sept 2010–100%
Apr 2010–100%

By size, the next 250 companies are strongest: 57% above their 200-day average

Listed companies grouped by today's market value: the largest 100, the next 150, the next 250 and the rest. The median stock's return over the last month: −4.9% for the largest 100, −6.3% for the next 150, −4.6% for the next 250, −4.5% for the rest.

0%20%40%60%Largest 100Largest 100: 36%36%Next 150Next 150: 37%37%Next 250Next 250: 57%57%The restThe rest: 42%42%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%Largest 100Largest 100: 36%36%Next 150Next 150: 37%37%Next 250Next 250: 57%57%The restThe rest: 42%42%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%Largest 100Largest 100: 36%36%Next 150Next 150: 37%37%Next 250Next 250: 57%57%The restThe rest: 42%42%

Source: NSE's daily PR archive (mcap file: market value of every listed company), via mtf.trading. Main-board equity (series EQ, BE, BZ; category Listed). Prices: NSE bhavcopy, adjusted for corporate actions

Table
Above 200-day
Largest 10036%
Next 15037%
Next 25057%
The rest42%

What has changed

What history says

After 11 breadth thrusts, the Nifty 500 was higher a year later 9 times

Each dot is the Nifty 500's return over the 12 months after a breadth thrust since 2003; the line is the average 12-month return over all days (18.3%). The most recent thrust, 8 Apr 2026, does not yet have a full year.

0%20%40%60%80%all days3 Sept 2007: −3%3 Apr 2024: −1%23 Jul 2008: 4%16 Apr 2025: 5%1 Apr 2004: 22%20 Jul 2009: 27%3 Jan 2017: 39%22 Jun 2006: 44%3 Feb 2005: 47%9 Apr 2020: 68%15 Dec 2008: 87%0%20%40%60%80%all days3 Sept 2007: −3%3 Apr 2024: −1%23 Jul 2008: 4%16 Apr 2025: 5%1 Apr 2004: 22%20 Jul 2009: 27%3 Jan 2017: 39%22 Jun 2006: 44%3 Feb 2005: 47%9 Apr 2020: 68%15 Dec 2008: 87%0%20%40%60%80%all days3 Sept 2007: −3%3 Apr 2024: −1%23 Jul 2008: 4%16 Apr 2025: 5%1 Apr 2004: 22%20 Jul 2009: 27%3 Jan 2017: 39%22 Jun 2006: 44%3 Feb 2005: 47%9 Apr 2020: 68%15 Dec 2008: 87%

Source: Evidence C2 (docs/research/site_calculations_spec.md).

Table
Value
1 Apr 200422%
3 Feb 200547%
22 Jun 200644%
3 Sept 2007−3%
23 Jul 20084%
15 Dec 200887%
20 Jul 200927%
3 Jan 201739%
9 Apr 202068%
3 Apr 2024−1%
16 Apr 20255%

Breadth thrusts

Mixed result in its pre-registered test

A breadth thrust (the share of advancing stocks jumping from under 40% to over 61.5% within ten sessions) has happened 11 times since 2003, most recently on 8 April 2026. The Nifty 500's average return over the next six months was 14.9% against 8.8% on all days (p = 0.11, so it could be chance), and over the next year 30.7% against 18.3% (p = 0.03, unlikely to be chance). That is 11 signals, so one or two years carry the result.

Evidence C2, breadth thrusts

Narrow markets and later returns

Not tested

We have not tested whether narrow participation has been followed by weaker returns, so this page does not say it.

What would change the answer

One measure moving a step would make the answer “About usual”: stocks above their 200-day average.

It would take two measures moving a step each to make the answer “Few stocks are strong”.

By size today, the share above their 200-day average is 36% for the largest 100, 37% for the next 150, 57% for the next 250, 42% for the rest.

Stocks above their 200-day average
50% now. It would count as strong above 76% (53% higher), and as weak below 46% (8% lower).
Equal-weight minus cap-weight Nifty 500, one year
+4.0 pts now. It would count as strong above +5.8 pts (45% higher), and as weak below −4.7 pts.

The readings and the dashboards

Stocks above their 200-day average 50%usual
Stocks above their 50-day average 30%below usual
Net new 52-week highs −22below usual
Stocks 20% or more below their high 51%usual

the usual range: the middle half of all readingstodayEach line runs from the lowest reading ever to the highest.

How these answers are made: the dossier method. Historical research, not investment advice.