Data to 5 October 2026
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DossiersAnswer as of 5 Oct 2026

Is the world helping or hurting Indian shares?

Headwinds

The US 10-year real yield is 2.92%, the highest reading since 2003, and the dollar has risen 0.6% against its trading partners in six months.

Of the five measures that vote, two say a headwind, one says a tailwind and two sit in between.

They disagree: the US 10-year real yield is the highest reading since 2003, while the US financial conditions (NFCI) is −0.55.

todaya month agoa year ago

The evidence

Each measure against its own history, strongest first. The bar runs from the lowest reading to the highest; the shaded part is the middle half. A measure votes a headwind at or above the 70th percentile of its history and a tailwind at or below the 30th, unless its note says otherwise. Primary measures count double.

  1. US 10-year real yield Primary. High real yields count as a headwind
    2.92% 2 Oct 2026, 100th percentile since 2003 A year ago 1.80%
    a headwind
  2. Brent crude, change over a year Supporting. India imports most of its oil: a rise counts as a headwind
    +72.3% 29 Sept 2026, 94th percentile since 1988 A year ago −16.6%
    a headwind
  3. US financial conditions (NFCI) Supporting. Above 0 (tighter than average) counts as a headwind; below −0.3 as a tailwind
    −0.55 25 Sept 2026 A year ago −0.53
    a tailwind
  4. The broad dollar, change over six months Primary. A rising dollar counts as a headwind
    +0.6% 2 Oct 2026, 54th percentile since 2006 A year ago −4.6%
    in between
  5. Global financial stress (OFR) Supporting
    −2.04 1 Oct 2026, 36th percentile since 2000 A year ago −2.52
    in between
  6. Nifty 50 and S&P 500, 1-year correlation Context
    0.45 5 Oct 2026, 53rd percentile since 2005 A year ago 0.33
    context

Behind the answer

Above their usual range today: US 10-year real yield; Brent crude

The forces usually blamed for foreign selling of Indian shares, since 2006, each with its middle half shaded. High US real yields, a rising dollar, dearer oil and tighter US financial conditions are counted as headwinds on this page; we have not tested how much each has mattered for Indian returns.

US 10-year real yield−2%0%2%4%3%Broad dollar, six-month change−20%0%20%1%Brent crude, one-year change−200%0%200%400%72%US financial conditions (0 = average)2010201520202025−2.00.02.04.0−0.5US 10-year real yield−2%0%2%4%3%Broad dollar, six-month change−20%0%20%1%Brent crude, one-year change−200%0%200%400%72%US financial conditions (0 = average)2010201520202025−2.00.02.04.0−0.5US 10-year real yield−2%0%2%4%3%Broad dollar, six-month change−20%0%20%1%Brent crude, one-year change−200%0%200%400%72%US financial conditions (0 = average)2010201520202025−2.00.02.04.0−0.5

Source: FRED (US Treasury, Federal Reserve, Chicago Fed); EIA via FRED for Brent.

Table
DateUS 10-year real yieldBroad dollar, six-month changeBrent crude, one-year changeUS financial conditions (0 = average)
Oct 20263%1%––
Apr 20262%0%–−0.5
Sept 20252%−5%−12%−0.5
Mar 20252%3%−16%−0.4
Aug 20242%0%−6%−0.4
Feb 20242%1%−2%−0.4
Jul 20232%−1%−24%−0.3
Jan 20231%−3%−4%−0.3
Jul 20221%5%54%−0.2
Dec 2021––48%−0.6
Jun 2021−1%−1%87%−0.7
Dec 2020−1%−7%−24%−0.6
Jun 2020−1%3%−39%−0.3
Nov 20190%0%12%−0.6
May 20191%−1%−7%−0.6
Oct 20181%6%29%−0.6
Apr 20181%−3%23%−0.5
Sept 20170%−4%18%−0.6
Mar 20170%2%29%−0.5
Sept 20160%0%3%−0.3
Feb 20160%3%−42%−0.3
Aug 20151%5%−56%−0.4
Feb 20150%11%−44%−0.5
Aug 20140%−1%−6%−0.7
Jan 20141%2%−4%−0.8
Jul 20131%4%9%−0.7
Dec 2012−1%−3%−0%−0.6
Jun 2012−1%4%−14%−0.3
Nov 20110%5%30%−0.1
May 20111%−3%49%−0.6
Nov 20100%−6%15%−0.5
Apr 20101%1%63%−0.5
Oct 20091%−9%13%0.0
Apr 20092%–−51%–
Sept 20082%4%18%1.5
Mar 20081%−7%79%1.0
Aug 20072%−4%−4%0.2
Feb 20072%−0%−4%−0.6
Jul 20062%−1%28%−0.5
Jan 20062%–44%−0.5

Over a year, in rupees, the Nifty 50 is last of 12 major markets

One-year price return of each market's main index, converted to rupees so an Indian investor's alternatives are compared on one footing.

0%20%40%Nikkei 225Nikkei 225: 54%54%Nasdaq-100Nasdaq-100: 36%36%Nasdaq CompositeNasdaq Composite: 31%31%S&P 500S&P 500: 26%26%Dow Jones Industrial AverageDow Jones Industrial Average: 19%19%FTSE 100FTSE 100: 18%18%Shanghai CompositeShanghai Composite: 14%14%S&P/ASX 200S&P/ASX 200: 10%10%DAXDAX: 7%7%CAC 40CAC 40: 0%0%Hang SengHang Seng: −5%−5%Nifty 50Nifty 50: −9%−9%−10%0%10%20%30%40%50%Nikkei 225Nikkei 225: 54%54%Nasdaq-100Nasdaq-100: 36%36%Nasdaq CompositeNasdaq Composite: 31%31%S&P 500S&P 500: 26%26%Dow Jones Industrial AverageDow Jones Industrial Average: 19%19%FTSE 100FTSE 100: 18%18%Shanghai CompositeShanghai Composite: 14%14%S&P/ASX 200S&P/ASX 200: 10%10%DAXDAX: 7%7%CAC 40CAC 40: 0%0%Hang SengHang Seng: −5%−5%Nifty 50Nifty 50: −9%−9%−10%0%10%20%30%40%50%Nikkei 225Nikkei 225: 54%54%Nasdaq-100Nasdaq-100: 36%36%Nasdaq CompositeNasdaq Composite: 31%31%S&P 500S&P 500: 26%26%Dow Jones Industrial AverageDow Jones Industrial Average: 19%19%FTSE 100FTSE 100: 18%18%Shanghai CompositeShanghai Composite: 14%14%S&P/ASX 200S&P/ASX 200: 10%10%DAXDAX: 7%7%CAC 40CAC 40: 0%0%Hang SengHang Seng: −5%−5%Nifty 50Nifty 50: −9%−9%

Source: Overseas indices: Kite Connect GLOBAL daily candles (internal, personal-use licence), replaced by official series where public ones exist (S&P 500: FRED SP500 from 2016-05-31; Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq-100: Nasdaq Global Index Watch). Nifty 50: niftyindices price index. FX: ECB euro reference rates

Table
One year, in rupees
Nikkei 22554%
Nasdaq-10036%
Nasdaq Composite31%
S&P 50026%
Dow Jones Industrial Average19%
FTSE 10018%
Shanghai Composite14%
S&P/ASX 20010%
DAX7%
CAC 400%
Hang Seng−5%
Nifty 50−9%

India's one-year correlation with the S&P 500 is 0.45; with the median of 11 markets, 0.39

Correlation of weekly returns over the past year, Nifty 50 against the S&P 500 and the median across 11 major markets. 1 means they move together, 0 unrelated. Higher correlation means world moves pass through to India more.

With the S&P 500Median of 11 markets

201020200.00.20.40.60.81.00.50.420102015202020250.00.20.40.60.81.0With the S&P 500 0.5Median of 11 markets0.420102015202020250.00.20.40.60.81.0With the S&P 500 0.5Median of 11 markets 0.4

Source: Overseas indices: Kite Connect GLOBAL daily candles (internal, personal-use licence), replaced by official series where public ones exist (S&P 500: FRED SP500 from 2016-05-31; Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq-100: Nasdaq Global Index Watch). Nifty 50: niftyindices price index. FX: ECB euro reference rates

Table
DateWith the S&P 500Median of 11 markets
Oct 20260.50.4
Mar 20260.40.4
Aug 20250.30.3
Feb 20250.40.3
Jul 20240.40.3
Dec 20230.40.4
Jun 20230.60.5
Nov 20220.50.5
Apr 20220.40.5
Oct 20210.60.6
Mar 20210.60.5
Aug 20200.70.6
Feb 20200.20.2
Jul 20190.30.3
Dec 20180.50.4
Jun 20180.40.4
Nov 20170.40.4
Apr 20170.40.4
Oct 20160.60.6
Mar 20160.60.6
Aug 20150.40.4
Feb 20150.30.4
Jul 20140.30.2
Dec 20130.40.4
Jun 20130.30.4
Nov 20120.70.7
Apr 20120.70.7
Oct 20110.50.5
Mar 20110.40.4
Aug 20100.60.6
Feb 20100.50.5
Jul 20090.60.6
Dec 20080.60.6
Jun 20080.30.5
Nov 20070.60.5
Apr 20070.50.5
Oct 20060.40.5
Mar 20060.30.4
Aug 20050.50.4
Feb 20050.40.4

What has changed

What history says

Foreign money follows the market

Passed its pre-registered test

Our test of flows and returns (evidence C3) found that a week's foreign buying follows the previous week's returns, while flows do not predict the next week's returns. Global forces may move foreign flows, but the flows themselves have not foretold the market.

Evidence C3

The world and Indian returns

Not tested

We have not tested whether these headwinds and tailwinds have been followed by weaker or stronger returns for Indian shares, so this page does not say it.

What would change the answer

It would take two measures moving a step each to make the answer “Strong headwinds”.

One measure moving a step would make the answer “Neither”: US 10-year real yield.

US 10-year real yield
2.92% now. It stops counting as a headwind below 1.80% (38% lower).
The broad dollar, change over six months
+0.6% now. It would count as a headwind above +2.2%, and as a tailwind below −1.9%.

The readings and the dashboards

US 10-year Treasury yield 5.28%usual
US 10-year real yield 2.92%above usual
US 10-year minus 2-year +0.45 ptsusual
US CPI inflation 3.4%usual
The broad dollar 121.4above usual
Brent crude 114.0above usual
US financial conditions (NFCI) −0.55usual
US net liquidity 5,747above usual
Nifty 50 and S&P 500, 1-year correlation 0.45usual
Nifty 50 and 11 world markets, median correlation 0.39

the usual range: the middle half of all readingstodayEach line runs from the lowest reading ever to the highest.

How these answers are made: the dossier method. Historical research, not investment advice.