Inside its usual range of +0.19 pts to +1.47 pts. The low is −2.41 pts, in March 1980. Down from +0.55 pts a year ago.
What it is. The US 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield.
How to read it. A negative gap (an inverted curve) has preceded most US recessions, often by a year or more.
| Latest | +0.45 pts | 2 Oct 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| A week ago | +0.36 pts | |
| A month ago | +0.40 pts | |
| A year ago | +0.55 pts | |
| Usual range | +0.19 pts to +1.47 pts | |
| Median | +0.77 pts | |
| Lowest | −2.41 pts | 20 Mar 1980 |
| Highest | +2.91 pts | 4 Feb 2011 |
| Percentile, full history | 37 | |
| Percentile, last 5 years | 69 |
The usual range is the middle half of readings since 1976. A percentile is the share of the 12,582 readings since 1 Jun 1976 that were below today's. Data: statistics, history (JSON); history as CSV.
To cite: tipsheet, “US 10-year minus 2-year”, data to 2 Oct 2026, https://tipsheet.markets/i/us-curve/
the usual range: the middle half of all readingstodayEach line runs from the lowest reading ever to the highest.