Is the world helping or hurting Indian shares?
How much debt, and is credit stretched?
India's private credit runs 4.3 percentage points of GDP above its long-run trend, on the BIS measure for Q1 2026, against −5.0 a year earlier. Only Japan is further above trend. India's debts are modest by the standards of richer economies: households owe 49.1% of GDP, companies 56.0%.
Written for investors asking whether a credit boom is building anywhere, India included. Data to Q1 2026.
The credit gap
The gap is private credit as a share of GDP minus its own long-run trend. Above zero, credit has grown faster than the economy for a while. Under Basel III guidance, banks start building an extra capital buffer at a gap of 2 points; India and Japan are at or above it. A rising gap has preceded banking stress in BIS research, but many gaps closed without one.
Credit-to-GDP gap, Q1 2026
Private non-financial credit as % of GDP, minus its long-run trend, percentage points.
How to read it. Right of zero: credit has outgrown its trend. The open circle is a year earlier. Of the rich economies, only Japan is above zero.
- India
+4.3 pp; a year earlier −5.0 pp - United States
−11.3 pp; a year earlier −12.6 pp - Euro area
−17.1 pp; a year earlier −19.1 pp - United Kingdom
−20.1 pp; a year earlier −22.2 pp - Japan
+5.7 pp; a year earlier +4.6 pp - China
−5.1 pp; a year earlier −4.4 pp - Korea
−15.1 pp; a year earlier −5.5 pp - Indonesia
−1.3 pp; a year earlier −1.4 pp - Brazil
+0.7 pp; a year earlier +1.7 pp - South Africa
−4.3 pp; a year earlier −5.8 pp - Mexico
−3.1 pp; a year earlier −2.4 pp - Turkey
−24.7 pp; a year earlier −31.1 pp - Australia
−9.7 pp; a year earlier −13.5 pp - Canada
−15.3 pp; a year earlier −16.4 pp
India's private credit against its trend
% of GDP, quarterly from 1961. The trend is a one-sided HP filter (lambda 400,000), so it uses only data up to each quarter.
How to read it. The gap is the space between the lines. India's ratio ran above trend through the 2000s credit boom, fell below it in the decade after, and has crossed back above.
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Who owes what
Debt by borrower, as a share of GDP, from all lenders. India's household debt is 49.1% of GDP, number 9 of 14, though it has risen from 33.1% in Q3 2016.
| Economy | Private debt | Households | Companies | Government | Debt service | A year ago | More |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 218.8% | 100.0% | 118.8% | 97.1% | 25.5% | 25.4% | |
| China | 204.1% | 57.5% | 146.6% | 101.1% | 19.1% | 18.9% | |
| Korea | 191.5% | 85.1% | 106.4% | 44.9% | 19.3% | 20.6% | |
| Australia | 175.8% | 114.1% | 61.7% | 51.1% | 20.3% | 20.6% | |
| Japan | 173.7% | 60.8% | 112.9% | 175.6% | 15.5% | 15.0% | |
| Euro area | 153.5% | 50.2% | 103.3% | 85.6% | – | – | |
| United States | 139.7% | 67.2% | 72.5% | 110.8% | 13.8% | 14.0% | |
| United Kingdom | 128.4% | 72.6% | 55.8% | 86.5% | 12.9% | 13.0% | |
| India | 105.1% | 49.1% | 56.0% | 83.5% | 12.5% | 11.7% | |
| Brazil | 92.5% | 38.0% | 54.6% | 91.8% | 29.8% | 27.6% | |
| South Africa | 67.2% | 33.7% | 33.6% | 78.8% | 8.3% | 8.5% | |
| Turkey | 49.1% | 10.1% | 39.0% | 22.8% | 25.8% | 28.7% | |
| Indonesia | 39.8% | 15.2% | 24.6% | 40.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | |
| Mexico | 38.6% | 17.4% | 21.2% | 50.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% |
Household debt by economy
% of GDP, quarterly from 2000, shared scale. India's series starts in 2007.
How to read it. Australia, Canada and Korea carry the most household debt; Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey the least. Direction matters as much as level: a fast climb is what the credit gap picks up.
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Company debt by economy
Non-financial corporations, % of GDP, quarterly from 2000, shared scale.
How to read it. China's company debt is the highest here. India's fell from 78% of GDP in Q4 2012 to 50% in Q2 2023, through the bad-loan clean-up, and has since edged up.
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Government debt by economy
General government, % of GDP, quarterly from 2000, shared scale. Nominal value where BIS has no market value (India).
How to read it. Japan's debt sets the scale. India's, at 84% of GDP, is close to United Kingdom, Euro area and South Africa's.
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Who owes India's debt
Credit from all lenders as % of GDP, quarterly from 2007, when the split by borrower begins. Government debt at nominal value.
How to read it. In Q1 2026, government debt was 83.5% of GDP, companies' 56.0% and households' 49.1%.
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The cost of carrying it
The debt service ratio is the share of income that goes on interest and principal. It rises with debt and with interest rates, and BIS research finds it one of the better early signals of strain on borrowers.
Private debt service ratio, Q1 2026
Interest and principal payments of households and companies as % of their income.
How to read it. Longer bars mean a bigger share of income goes on servicing debt. The open circle is a year earlier: a circle short of the bar's end means the burden grew.
- Brazil 29.8%; a year earlier 27.6%
- Turkey 25.8%; a year earlier 28.7%
- Canada 25.5%; a year earlier 25.4%
- Australia 20.3%; a year earlier 20.6%
- Korea 19.3%; a year earlier 20.6%
- China 19.1%; a year earlier 18.9%
- Japan 15.5%; a year earlier 15.0%
- United States 13.8%; a year earlier 14.0%
- United Kingdom 12.9%; a year earlier 13.0%
- India 12.5%; a year earlier 11.7%
- South Africa 8.3%; a year earlier 8.5%
- Mexico 5.3%; a year earlier 5.8%
- Indonesia 4.2%; a year earlier 4.3%
Debt service ratios by economy
Private non-financial sector, % of income, quarterly from 2000, shared scale.
How to read it. Look for lines rising to their own earlier peaks; the level that strains borrowers differs from one economy to the next.
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House prices
Real house prices, deflated by consumer prices, against a year earlier. House prices are where credit booms usually show first, and where their unwinding hurts banks most.
Real residential property prices
% on a year earlier, latest quarter each economy has published (India: Q1 2026). National sources vary.
How to read it. Below zero, house prices are rising more slowly than consumer prices. The open circle is a year earlier.
- Australia +4.2%; a year earlier +1.9%
- Mexico +3.2%; a year earlier +4.3%
- Euro area +2.6%; a year earlier +3.1%
- Japan +2.4%; a year earlier −0.2%
- South Africa +1.2%; a year earlier +0.4%
- India +1.1%; a year earlier +0.1%
- Brazil +0.6%; a year earlier +0.1%
- United Kingdom +0.1%; a year earlier −1.4%
- Korea −0.5%; a year earlier −1.9%
- Indonesia −2.2%; a year earlier −0.9%
- United States −2.6%; a year earlier −0.4%
- Turkey −5.5%; a year earlier −2.5%
- Canada −6.7%; a year earlier −4.6%
- China −7.0%; a year earlier −6.4%
What it means for India
India's credit gap is the 2nd largest of the fourteen economies here, from a low base of debt; it crossed the 2-point Basel threshold in Q1 2026. The debt service ratio says how much of that is a burden; the household line says where the new borrowing is.
India's credit gap against China's
Percentage points of GDP, quarterly from 2000. BIS publishes no emerging-market aggregate gap; China is the largest emerging economy here.
How to read it. Above the dashed line, Basel guidance says banks should start setting capital aside. China's gap ran far above it in the mid-2010s and has been below zero since 2019.
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Real house prices: India and emerging markets
Deflated by consumer prices, % y/y, quarterly from 2010.
How to read it. Below zero, house prices are rising more slowly than consumer prices. India's series begins in 2010.
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The workings
Data
Every chart has a table view, a CSV download and a link to its published JSON. Bundles are listed in data status.