Is the world helping or hurting Indian shares?
Where is inflation, and where is it heading?
Consumer prices in India were 4.8% higher in Aug 2026 than a year earlier, against a median of 3.2% across the other economies here (Turkey aside). Inflation was lower than a year earlier in 5 of 13. Markets expect US inflation to average 2.4% over the next five years.
Written for investors watching whether the world's inflation will let rates fall. Data to Aug 2026.
Inflation now
Headline consumer price inflation, the latest month each economy has published. Most central banks here aim for about 2% (India's target is 4%, within a band of 2 to 6). Above 3% in the latest month: Mexico, India, Brazil, Australia, United States, United Kingdom, Indonesia, Korea, South Africa, Canada. Turkey, at 31%, is left off the chart so the others stay readable.
Consumer price inflation, Aug 2026
% on the same month a year earlier. * = an earlier month, the latest published.
How to read it. The bar is inflation now, the open circle a year earlier, the dashed line the 2% most central banks aim for.
- Mexico*
+5.6%; a year earlier +4.8% - India
+4.8%; a year earlier +2.0% - Brazil
+4.2%; a year earlier +5.1% - Australia
+4.0%; a year earlier +3.2% - United States
+3.4%; a year earlier +2.9% - United Kingdom
+3.3%; a year earlier +4.1% - Indonesia
+3.2%; a year earlier +2.3% - Korea
+3.1%; a year earlier +1.7% - South Africa*
+3.1%; a year earlier +5.4% - Canada
+3.0%; a year earlier +1.9% - Euro area*
+1.9%; a year earlier +2.4% - China
+0.8%; a year earlier −0.4% - Japan*
−0.5%; a year earlier +0.1%
Fourteen paths
Every economy on one scale since 2018, so the 2021–23 surge and its unwinding compare directly. Turkey's inflation, at times above 80%, would flatten every other panel, so it is left out here and kept in the table above and on the overview.
Consumer price inflation by economy
Monthly, % y/y, shared scale.
How to read it. Compare the last twelve months with the 2018–19 level in each panel.
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Core inflation
Core inflation leaves out food and energy, whose prices swing with harvests and oil, so it shows the underlying trend central banks watch. India's core was 4.4% in Aug 2026. The OECD publishes no core series for China, Brazil or Indonesia.
Core inflation, Aug 2026
Excluding food and energy, % y/y. India: MoSPI CPI excluding food and fuel. * = an earlier month.
How to read it. Where the bar is shorter than in the headline chart above, food and energy are pushing headline inflation up; where it is longer, they are holding it down.
- India
+4.4%; a year earlier +4.1% - Mexico*
+4.0%; a year earlier +5.6% - Australia
+3.5%; a year earlier +2.9% - South Africa*
+3.4%; a year earlier +4.5% - Korea
+3.4%; a year earlier +1.3% - United Kingdom
+2.9%; a year earlier +4.0% - Canada*
+2.8%; a year earlier +2.7% - United States
+2.4%; a year earlier +3.4% - Euro area*
+2.3%; a year earlier +2.7% - Japan*
−1.0%; a year earlier +0.4%
Core inflation by economy
Monthly, % y/y, shared scale, from 2018.
How to read it. Core inflation turns more slowly than headline. A core line still above its 2018–19 level means the job is not done.
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Where it is heading
Only the US has a deep market in inflation-protected bonds, so it is the one economy where the market's own forecast can be read daily. The gap between ordinary and inflation-protected Treasury yields, the breakeven, was 2.36% for five years in the week to 9 Oct 2026, and 2.36% for the five years after that. The Fed's preferred measure, core PCE, was 3.0% in Aug 2026.
What the US bond market expects inflation to be
Weekly from 2003, Friday readings. Breakeven = nominal minus inflation-protected Treasury yield. Federal Reserve and US Treasury.
How to read it. The 5-year line is the market's average for the next five years; the forward line strips out the near term, so it shows whether long-run expectations are holding steady. Breakevens also carry a risk premium, so they are not pure forecasts.
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A model's view: the Cleveland Fed's expected inflation
Monthly estimates from Treasury yields, inflation data, swaps and surveys, shown weekly.
How to read it. The model separates expected inflation from the risk premium in bond yields. A 1-year line above the 10-year line means inflation is expected to come down over time.
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US inflation
Year on year. October 2025 CPI was never published (government shutdown) and is left blank.
How to read it. Compare the core lines with the 2% target. Headline CPI swings more because it includes food and energy.
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Food and energy
Food and fuel are where world prices reach India's inflation fastest. The FAO's world food price index was 2.5% on a year earlier in Aug 2026. Prices are in dollars, so a weaker rupee adds to what India pays.
World food prices
FAO Food Price Index and its vegetable oils sub-index, monthly from 1990, in US dollars.
How to read it. Edible oils are among the food items on India's import bill, and their prices swing far more than the food index as a whole.
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World Bank commodity price indices
Monthly averages in nominal US dollars, from 2005. World Bank Pink Sheet.
How to read it. Fertiliser and energy prices swing the most. Fertiliser matters to India twice: through the subsidy bill and, with a lag, through food.
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What it means for India
Since January 2015, India's inflation has been above the peers' median in 124 of 140 months. India's target is higher than most (4% against about 2%), so a gap is expected; what matters is whether it is widening.
India's inflation against the peers' median
Monthly, % y/y. Median of the 12 other economies here, Turkey excluded, where at least half report. India: MoSPI's all-India CPI, linked across base years.
How to read it. When the lines move together, India's inflation is tracking the world's; when they part, the cause is at home. The food chart above and the India macro page show which prices moved.
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The workings
Data
Every chart has a table view, a CSV download and a link to its published JSON. Bundles are listed in data status.