Is the world helping or hurting Indian shares?
Is the world economy growing or slowing?
India's economy grew 7.8% in the year to Q2 2026, the fastest of the 14 economies here; the G20 as a whole grew 3.1%. On the OECD's leading indicators, 9 of 14 economies were in expansion in Aug 2026, against 8 six months earlier.
Written for investors who want to know whether the world India sells to is speeding up or slowing down. Data to Q2 2026.
Growth now
Real GDP against the same quarter a year earlier, the latest quarter each economy has published. The open circle is the rate a year before, so the gap shows who is speeding up and who is slowing.
Real GDP growth, Q2 2026
% on the same quarter a year earlier. * = an earlier quarter, the latest published.
How to read it. The bar is growth now; the open circle, growth a year earlier. A circle to the right of the bar's end means growth has slowed.
- India +7.8%; a year earlier +6.9%
- Indonesia +5.3%; a year earlier +5.1%
- China +4.3%; a year earlier +5.2%
- Korea +3.8%; a year earlier +0.8%
- United States +2.7%; a year earlier +2.1%
- Turkey +2.6%; a year earlier +4.3%
- Australia +2.1%; a year earlier +1.9%
- Mexico +1.9%; a year earlier +0.8%
- Brazil +1.9%; a year earlier +2.6%
- United Kingdom +1.4%; a year earlier +1.1%
- Euro area +1.2%; a year earlier +1.4%
- Canada +1.1%; a year earlier +2.0%
- South Africa +0.9%; a year earlier +1.0%
- Japan +0.7%; a year earlier +1.9%
Fourteen paths
Each panel is one economy on the same scale, from mid-2022, after the pandemic's swings had washed out of year-on-year rates. India is the dark line; the others are grey so the shapes compare without a legend.
Real GDP growth, year on year, by economy
Quarterly, % y/y, shared scale.
How to read it. Look for direction: a line falling across the last four quarters is slowing, whatever its level.
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India and the G20 since 2012
Real GDP, % on a year earlier, quarterly from Q2 2012, when MoSPI's quarterly series begins. G20: OECD aggregate.
How to read it. The gap between the lines is how much faster India is growing than the large economies as a whole.
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The cycle ahead
The OECD's composite leading indicators combine series that tend to turn before output: orders, confidence, credit and the yield curve. A reading above 100 means activity is running above its long-run trend. In Aug 2026, India's stood at 101.6 and the G20's at 100.3.
| Economy | Indicator | Change, 6 months | Phase now | Six months ago | More |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | 101.6 | 0.79 | Expansion | Expansion | |
| United States | 101.0 | 0.57 | Expansion | Expansion | |
| China | 98.1 | −0.86 | Slowdown | Slowdown | |
| Japan | 100.3 | 0.21 | Expansion | Expansion | |
| United Kingdom | 101.1 | 0.37 | Expansion | Downturn | |
| Korea | 102.9 | 1.69 | Expansion | Expansion | |
| Indonesia | 98.9 | −2.23 | Slowdown | Downturn | |
| Brazil | 102.6 | −0.43 | Downturn | Expansion | |
| Mexico | 102.7 | 0.44 | Downturn | Expansion | |
| South Africa | 100.5 | −0.10 | Expansion | Downturn | |
| Turkey | 100.5 | −0.03 | Expansion | Downturn | |
| Australia | 100.0 | −0.53 | Downturn | Downturn | |
| Canada | 102.0 | 1.07 | Expansion | Expansion | |
| G20 | 100.3 | −0.04 | Downturn | Expansion | |
| G7 | 100.9 | 0.40 | Expansion | Expansion |
Leading indicators by economy
OECD composite leading indicators, amplitude adjusted, monthly from 2015. Long-run trend = 100. No euro-area series is published.
How to read it. Above 100 is above trend. The 2020 trough squeezes the scale, so read the last two years against 100 and against each panel's own recent path.
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Confidence
Business and consumer confidence come from surveys and move before spending does. The purchasing managers' indices quoted in the press are proprietary, so we show the OECD's open confidence measures instead, rescaled so that 100 is each economy's long-run average.
Business confidence by economy
OECD business confidence indicator, monthly from 2015. 100 = long-run average.
How to read it. Above 100, firms are more upbeat than usual. India's series is published with a lag of several months.
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Consumer confidence by economy
OECD consumer confidence indicator, monthly from 2015. 100 = long-run average.
How to read it. Households' mood leads their spending by a few months. A fall well below 100 has usually come with weaker consumption.
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Jobs and supply chains
Unemployment confirms what the leading indicators hint at. Harmonised monthly rates exist for nine of the fourteen economies; the OECD publishes none for India, China, Brazil, Indonesia or South Africa. US unemployment was 4.2% in Sept 2026.
Unemployment by economy
Harmonised unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, monthly from 2015.
How to read it. A rate rising from its recent low is the sign to watch; levels differ a lot between economies, so compare each panel with its own past.
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US unemployment and the policy rate
Monthly. BLS and Federal Reserve.
How to read it. The Fed has usually cut as unemployment rose and raised when jobs were plentiful and inflation high.
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Global supply chain pressure
NY Fed GSCPI, monthly from 1997. Shipping costs and the supply parts of factory surveys in seven economies. Every release revises history.
How to read it. Zero is normal; one means pressure one standard deviation above average. The pandemic peak dwarfs everything since.
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What it means for India
A slowing world reaches India through its exports and through foreign investors' appetite. The first chart puts India's cycle beside the G20's; the second shows why our India figures differ from the OECD's.
Leading indicators: India and the G20
OECD composite leading indicators, amplitude adjusted, monthly from 2010.
How to read it. Read the direction of each line against 100. Two lines falling together point to a slowdown that is global, not only India's.
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India's growth, two ways
Real GDP, % on a year earlier, quarterly. MoSPI publishes no seasonally adjusted series; the OECD makes one.
How to read it. The two differ by up to 0.9 points a quarter. We use MoSPI's figure, the one India's statistics office publishes and the press quotes; the OECD's is kept for comparison.
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The workings
Data
Every chart has a table view, a CSV download and a link to its published JSON. Bundles are listed in data status.