Nifty India Internet has been in an uptrend since July 2026 (3 months). Its trend score is 42 out of 100, signals split. On momentum it is mid-table, 61st of 133, and 11th of 43 in themes.
Written for anyone holding or watching Nifty India Internet. Data to 14 Oct 2026.
Trend
Uptrend
since Jul 2026
Momentum
61st of 133
markets, by rank
Below its high
9.2%
total return
1 year
−6.7%
total return
Today
Of 2 earlier uptrends in Internet that lasted 3 months or more, 100% went on for at least another three months and 50% for six. Across themes indices (since each launch): 60% and 41% of 209.
Trend
Uptrend since July 2026score 42 of 100; four weeks ago 88
Momentum rank
11th of 43in themes; 61st of 133 markets overall
The 10-month rule
holding since July 2026month-end price against its 10-month average
The 200-day rule
holding since July 2026daily close against its 200-session average
The 24 trend signals on 14 Oct 2026: 10 up, 14 down. Each asks whether the market, measured against cash, is rising over that period.
Signal
1 month1m
2 months2m
3 months3m
6 months6m
9 months9m
12 months12m
Up
Past returnhigher than it was that long ago
Down
Down
Down
Up
Down
Down
1 of 6
Price against its averageabove its average over the period
Down
Down
Down
Up
Up
Up
3 of 6
Fast average against slowa quarter-length average above the full-length one
Down
Down
Down
Up
Up
Up
3 of 6
Place in its rangein the upper half of the period's high-low range
Down
Down
Down
Up
Up
Up
3 of 6
Up at this horizon
0 of 4
0 of 4
0 of 4
4 of 4
3 of 4
3 of 4
10 of 24
Momentum: the return over cash at each horizon, and its percentile among all 133 markets (100 is the strongest).
Over the last
1 month1M
3 months3M
6 months6M
12 months12M
Return over cash
−7.9%
−1.2%
+14.6%
−11.6%
Percentile
3
87
94
26
Trend over time
The trend score each week since 2022, and the trends it marks: an uptrend from the week the score reaches 70 until it falls to 30, and a downtrend the other way.
Internet: trend score, week by week
Share of 24 trend signals pointing up, 0 to 100, weekly to 14 Oct 2026; the 13-week average in bold. Before Feb 2025 the index is NSE's back-calculation.
How to read it. The score moves fast because a third of its signals look back only one or two months. Long stretches near 100 or 0 are the strong trends; the lines at 70 and 30 are where a trend starts.
Up signals out of four at each horizon, weekly, last three years. Blue: all four up; red: all four down.
How to read it. Trends turn from the top row down: the one-month signals flip first and the twelve-month ones last. Red spreading down the rows is a downtrend taking hold; blue spreading down is a recovery being confirmed.
Against its peers
Internet ranks 11th of 43 in themes on momentum; thirteen weeks ago it was 8th of 43. Momentum here is the return over cash at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months, each ranked, then averaged.
Internet: place among themes, week by week
Momentum rank within the family, last three years: 100 is first, 0 is last, of the 43 live members.
How to read it. A market that leads its family for months shows as a long stretch near the top; one that swings from top to bottom takes turns with its peers.
Internet: place among themes, week by week. Line chart, 20 Oct 2023 to 14 Oct 2026. Place in themes: latest 76, range 0 to 100.
Internet has had 3 uptrends and 3 downtrends since 2022. A year after an uptrend began it had risen by a median +29.3% (2 cases); a year after a downtrend began, +11.3% (2). From any week, the usual year was +11.3%.
Median return of Internet, total return, over the 3, 6 and 12 months after the week each trend began, and the share of cases that ended higher. The last row is the same measure from every week, the yardstick for the other two.
Median return of Internet, total return, over the 3, 6 and 12 months after the week each trend began, and the share of cases that ended higher. The last row is the same measure from every week, the yardstick for the other two.
Starting point
3 months
Higher
6 months
Higher
12 months
Higher
Cases
More
After an uptrend began
+9.9%
67%
+20.3%
100%
+29.3%
50%
2
After a downtrend began
−10.1%
33%
−0.8%
33%
+11.3%
100%
2
From any week (the usual)
+5.8%
60%
+6.2%
54%
+11.3%
74%
210
A small sample. With only 2 uptrends and 2 downtrends that have a full year after them, one or two cases move the median a lot. These are descriptions of Internet's past, not a tested signal. The trends overlap with each other's next twelve months, and a trend is only called after the market has already moved, so its "during" return includes the climb that called it. 3 of the 6 trends fall in NSE's back-calculated history before the index launched. Whether these patterns hold across markets is the subject of the tests on the evidence page.
Every uptrend and downtrend in Internet, newest first. Returns are from the close of the week each began; a trend still going is measured to 14 Oct 2026.
Every uptrend and downtrend in Internet, newest first. Returns are from the close of the week each began; a trend still going is measured to 14 Oct 2026.
Trend
Began
Ended
Lasted
Return during
Next 3 months
Next 6 months
Next 12 months
History
More
Uptrend
Jul 2026
still going
3 months
+0.7%
−0.1%
–
–
–
Downtrend
Jan 2026
Jul 2026
6 months
−4.2%
−10.1%
−0.8%
–
–
Uptrend
May 2025
Jan 2026
8 months
+9.9%
+9.9%
+14.2%
−5.6%
–
Downtrend
Jan 2025
May 2025
4 months
−1.4%
+0.3%
+16.5%
+5.9%
back-calculated
Uptrend
Jun 2023
Jan 2025
20 months
+95.2%
+17.4%
+26.3%
+64.3%
back-calculated
Downtrend
Oct 2022
Jun 2023
8 months
−4.5%
−12.7%
−14.6%
+16.6%
back-calculated
After big moves
Internet has fallen below its 200-day average 2 times. A year later it was higher 100% of the time, with a median return of +11.7%; from any day, 72% and +12.2%. The deepest fall within that year had a median of −13.2%, against −14.0% from any day.
What Internet did after each kind of move since 2022: the median total return over the next 3, 6 and 12 months, how often it was higher a year later, and the median of the deepest fall within that year. A move counts once: a cross of the 200-day average after 20 sessions on the other side, a fall of 10% or 20% from a high (counted again only after a new high), a 52-week high after three months without one. The last row is every day, the yardstick.
What Internet did after each kind of move since 2022: the median total return over the next 3, 6 and 12 months, how often it was higher a year later, and the median of the deepest fall within that year. A move counts once: a cross of the 200-day average after 20 sessions on the other side, a fall of 10% or 20% from a high (counted again only after a new high), a 52-week high after three months without one. The last row is every day, the yardstick.
After it
Times
3 months
6 months
12 months
Higher a year later
Deepest fall within a year
More
Fell below its 200-day average
2
−6.3%
+5.3%
+11.7%
100%
−13.2%
Rose back above it
3
+9.1%
+23.9%
+30.2%
50%
−8.1%
Fell 10% from its high
5
−8.6%
+1.2%
+3.7%
67%
−20.3%
Fell 20% from its high
3
+0.9%
+20.1%
−11.9%
50%
−21.1%
Made a new 52-week high
3
+1.2%
+9.7%
+60.5%
100%
−1.0%
Any day (the usual)
–
+5.6%
+5.8%
+12.2%
72%
−14.0%
Some of these are small samples. Where a move has happened fewer than ten times, one or two cases decide the median. These describe Internet's own past; the moves overlap, and a fall or a cross is only visible after it has happened. Pooled across 106 investable markets since each launched, the returns after these moves did not differ from an ordinary day by more than luck would explain once all ten comparisons are counted. Two patterns came close: a year after a new 52-week high, returns were about 6 points above usual, and after a fall below the 200-day average the deepest fall in the next year was about 2 points worse. The full test is on the evidence page.
Every such move in Internet, newest first. Blank where the period has not yet passed.
Every such move in Internet, newest first. Blank where the period has not yet passed.
Date
Move
1 month
3 months
6 months
12 months
Deepest fall in the year
History
More
30 Sept 2026
Down 10%
–
–
–
–
–
–
23 Sept 2026
52-week high
–
–
–
–
–
–
7 Jul 2026
Above 200-day
+4.6%
+3.8%
–
–
–
–
27 Feb 2026
Down 20%
−6.0%
+0.9%
+23.2%
–
–
–
12 Jan 2026
Down 10%
−1.3%
−8.2%
−0.4%
–
–
–
9 Jan 2026
Below 200-day
−1.0%
−10.1%
−0.8%
–
–
–
15 Oct 2025
52-week high
−0.9%
−7.9%
−15.2%
–
–
–
15 May 2025
Above 200-day
+3.3%
+9.1%
+13.1%
−4.3%
−15.5%
–
27 Jan 2025
Down 20%
−0.7%
+3.0%
+20.1%
+9.0%
−9.4%
back-calculated
13 Jan 2025
Below 200-day
+0.3%
−2.4%
+11.3%
+11.7%
−13.2%
back-calculated
9 Jan 2025
Down 10%
−5.8%
−13.9%
+2.8%
+3.7%
−20.3%
back-calculated
4 Jun 2024
Down 10%
+15.2%
+32.4%
+49.8%
+40.3%
never below
back-calculated
13 Jul 2023
52-week high
+4.2%
+10.3%
+34.6%
+60.5%
−1.0%
back-calculated
26 May 2023
Above 200-day
+10.7%
+16.4%
+34.7%
+64.7%
−0.7%
back-calculated
20 Dec 2021
Down 20%
+6.0%
−7.5%
−25.9%
−32.8%
−32.8%
back-calculated
22 Oct 2021
Down 10%
−6.8%
−8.9%
−21.0%
−34.0%
−37.2%
back-calculated
What the trend rules did here
₹1 lakh put into Internet in October 2022 and held would be ₹2.0 lakh today after costs and tax. The better of the two simple rules, the 200-day average, would have left ₹1.9 lakh. Each rule holds Internet while its signal is up and sits in a liquid fund otherwise, deciding at one day's close and trading at the next.
₹1 lakh from October 2022 to 14 Oct 2026, when all three rules had enough history. Costs: 0.10% of each trade and fund running costs. After tax: Indian capital-gains rules as they stood on each date, at the 30% slab, everything sold at the end. The ensemble trades a little every day, which no one would do in a taxable account, so it has no after-tax figure. The worst three years compare the rule's return a year with holding's over the same three years.
₹1 lakh from October 2022 to 14 Oct 2026, when all three rules had enough history. Costs: 0.10% of each trade and fund running costs. After tax: Indian capital-gains rules as they stood on each date, at the 30% slab, everything sold at the end. The ensemble trades a little every day, which no one would do in a taxable account, so it has no after-tax figure. The worst three years compare the rule's return a year with holding's over the same three years.
Before tax
After tax
After tax, a year
Deepest fall
Worst three years against holding
When
More
Buying and holding
₹2.1 lakh
₹2.0 lakh
18.2%
−29%, Dec 2024 to Mar 2025
–
–
10-month average
₹2.1 lakh
₹1.9 lakh
17.3%
−22%, Dec 2024 to Jan 2025
−6.4% points a year
Jan 2023 to Feb 2026
200-day average
₹1.9 lakh
₹1.9 lakh
17.9%
−30%, Dec 2024 to Jun 2025
−12.2% points a year
Jan 2023 to Feb 2026
All 24 signals (the ensemble)
₹2.0 lakh
not computed
–
−17%, Dec 2024 to Apr 2025
−9.3% points a year
Jan 2023 to Feb 2026
Internet: growth of 1 under each rule
Weekly, after costs, before tax. Log scale: equal slopes are equal returns.
How to read it. Buying and holding: 19.7% a year, worst fall -29%. The 10-month rule: 20.3%, worst fall -22%. The 200-day rule: 17.2%, worst fall -30%. Look first at the big falls, where the rule lines go flat, and then at the recoveries, where they lag.
Buy and hold10-month rule200-day ruleAll 24 signals
Each rule against buying and holding over the same dates, over the full history and, where it is three years or more, since NSE launched the index.
Each rule against buying and holding over the same dates, over the full history and, where it is three years or more, since NSE launched the index.
Rule
Period
Rule, a year
Buy and hold
After tax, rule minus buy and hold
Rule's worst fall
Buy and hold's
Time invested
Switches a year
10-month average
Full, from Oct 2022
20.3%
19.7%
−1.0 pts
−22%
−29%
64%
0.6
200-day average
Full, from Oct 2022
17.2%
19.7%
−0.4 pts
−30%
−29%
65%
2.4
All 24 signals (the ensemble)
Full, from Oct 2022
18.3%
19.7%
–
−17%
−29%
62%
4.0
Not a test. These two rules were pre-registered on seven markets, and on those none beat buying and holding by more than luck would explain (the evidence). Run on all 121 investable markets here, the 10-month rule kept more after tax than buying and holding on 33 and the 200-day rule on 27; both had a shallower worst fall on nearly all of them. With this many markets, some would look good by chance, so one market's result says little about the next decade.
About this market
Nifty India Internet, in themes. Source: NSE total-return index (NSE factsheet). History from Oct 2021. Its returns, calendar years, falls, valuation and holdings are on the index tab.
Back-calculated history. NSE launched this index in February 2025. Its history before that is a back-calculation: today's rules applied to the past. Rules chosen with that past in view tend to look better in it, so treat the pre-launch years, marked on each chart, with care.
Trend asks whether a market is rising; momentum asks whether it is rising faster than the others. Both look back over the same horizons: 1, 3, 6 and 12 months. Every market is measured on its return above a liquid fund (the 91-day T-bill), so an index that only keeps pace with cash is not trending.
The trend score is the share of 24 signals that point up: four ways of asking whether a price is trending (above where it was, above its average, a short average above a long one, in the top half of its range), each at six horizons from one month to a year. 100 means all agree it is rising; 0 that all agree it is falling.
Uptrend and downtrend. Read once a week, a market enters an uptrend when its score reaches 70 (17 of 24 signals up) and stays in it until the score falls to 30 or below, when it enters a downtrend. "Uptrend since March 2026" means the score first reached 70 in March and has not fallen to 30 since. The gap between the two lines keeps a market from flipping every other week.
Describing is not forecasting. In my pre-registered tests no trend or momentum rule on indices beat buying and holding by more than luck would explain, and after tax every rule trailed on the large-cap indices. What the rules did reliably was cut the worst falls. What the tests found. Many indices are back-calculated by NSE before their launch; their pages say so and draw that history lighter.