Markets
Nifty India Infrastructure & Logistics: downtrend since September 2026
Nifty India Infrastructure & Logistics has been in a downtrend since September 2026 (4 weeks). Its trend score is 8 out of 100, nearly all signals down. On momentum it is behind most, 89th of 133, and 23rd of 43 in themes.
Written for anyone holding or watching Nifty India Infrastructure & Logistics. Data to 14 Oct 2026.
- Trend
- Downtrend since Sep 2026
- Momentum
- 89th of 133 markets, by rank
- Below its high
- 9.1% total return
- 1 year
- +0.4% total return
Today
Of 22 earlier downtrends in Infrastructure & Logistics that lasted 4 weeks or more, 45% went on for at least another three months and 18% for six. Across themes indices (since each launch): 42% and 18% of 362.
- Trend
- Downtrend since September 2026score 8 of 100; four weeks ago 38
- Momentum rank
- 23rd of 43in themes; 89th of 133 markets overall
- The 10-month rule
- in cash since September 2026month-end price against its 10-month average
- The 200-day rule
- in cash since September 2026daily close against its 200-session average
| Signal | 1 month1m | 2 months2m | 3 months3m | 6 months6m | 9 months9m | 12 months12m | Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past returnhigher than it was that long ago | Down | Down | Down | Down | Down | Down | 0 of 6 |
| Price against its averageabove its average over the period | Down | Down | Down | Down | Down | Down | 0 of 6 |
| Fast average against slowa quarter-length average above the full-length one | Down | Down | Down | Down | Up | Up | 2 of 6 |
| Place in its rangein the upper half of the period's high-low range | Down | Down | Down | Down | Down | Down | 0 of 6 |
| Up at this horizon | 0 of 4 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 4 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 24 |
| Over the last | 1 month1M | 3 months3M | 6 months6M | 12 months12M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return over cash | −4.8% | −8.5% | −1.8% | −5.6% |
| Percentile | 29 | 13 | 50 | 58 |
Trend over time
The trend score each week since 2006, and the trends it marks: an uptrend from the week the score reaches 70 until it falls to 30, and a downtrend the other way.
Infrastructure & Logistics: trend score, week by week
Share of 24 trend signals pointing up, 0 to 100, weekly to 14 Oct 2026; the 13-week average in bold. Before Jun 2025 the index is NSE's back-calculation.
How to read it. The score moves fast because a third of its signals look back only one or two months. Long stretches near 100 or 0 are the strong trends; the lines at 70 and 30 are where a trend starts.
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Uptrends and downtrends
Weekly; blank before the first trend was established.
How to read it. 26 uptrends and 26 downtrends since 2006. Hover for the dates; the next section has each one's return.
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Which horizons are rising
Up signals out of four at each horizon, weekly, last three years. Blue: all four up; red: all four down.
How to read it. Trends turn from the top row down: the one-month signals flip first and the twelve-month ones last. Red spreading down the rows is a downtrend taking hold; blue spreading down is a recovery being confirmed.
Against its peers
Infrastructure & Logistics ranks 23rd of 43 in themes on momentum; thirteen weeks ago it was 18th of 43. Momentum here is the return over cash at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months, each ranked, then averaged.
Infrastructure & Logistics: place among themes, week by week
Momentum rank within the family, last three years: 100 is first, 0 is last, of the 43 live members.
How to read it. A market that leads its family for months shows as a long stretch near the top; one that swings from top to bottom takes turns with its peers.
Infrastructure & Logistics: place among themes, week by week. Line chart, 20 Oct 2023 to 14 Oct 2026. Place in themes: latest 48, range 12 to 95.
Themes, ranked by momentum on 14 Oct 2026. "13 weeks ago" is the rank then, among the members live then.
| Rank | Market | 13 weeks ago | Places gained | Trend | Score | 3 months over cash | 12 months over cash | More |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IPO | 1 | 0 | Uptrend since Apr 2026 | 75 | +2.6% | +5.7% | |
| 2 | SME Emerge | 26 | +24 | Uptrend since Jun 2026 | 88 | +5.7% | −6.0% | |
| 3 | REITs & InvITs | 2 | −1 | Uptrend since Apr 2026 | 46 | −1.0% | +2.5% | |
| 4 | Defence | 3 | −1 | Uptrend since Apr 2026 | 46 | −1.6% | +9.2% | |
| 5 | Nifty100 Liquid 15 | 14 | +9 | Downtrend since Sep 2026 | 17 | −3.6% | −4.9% | |
| 6 | Capital Markets | 9 | +3 | Downtrend since Oct 2026 | 42 | −6.7% | +15.0% | |
| 7 | Waves | 39 | +32 | Downtrend since Jul 2026 | 46 | −3.7% | −14.2% | |
| 8 | Midcap Liquid 15 | 15 | +7 | Downtrend since Oct 2026 | 25 | −4.1% | +1.6% | |
| 9 | Nifty500 Shariah | 37 | +28 | Downtrend since Sep 2026 | 0 | −5.0% | −9.7% | |
| 10 | Shariah 25 | 35 | +25 | Downtrend since Sep 2026 | 8 | −4.3% | −10.8% | |
| 11 | Internet | 8 | −3 | Uptrend since Jul 2026 | 42 | −1.2% | −11.6% | |
| 12 | Nifty500 Multicap India Manufacturing 50:30:20 | 4 | −8 | Downtrend since Oct 2026 | 13 | −5.2% | −4.3% | |
| 13 | Tata Group | 40 | +27 | Downtrend since Dec 2024 | 8 | −3.5% | −13.5% | |
| 14 | Tata Group 25% Cap | 42 | +28 | Downtrend since Jan 2026 | 8 | −4.2% | −10.1% | |
| 15 | EV & New Age Automotive | 12 | −3 | Downtrend since Oct 2026 | 13 | −5.4% | −8.8% | |
| 16 | Non-Cyclical Consumer | 30 | +14 | Downtrend since Sep 2026 | 0 | −6.5% | −15.2% | |
| 17 | Nifty100 ESG | 28 | +11 | Downtrend since Sep 2026 | 0 | −6.3% | −9.7% | |
| 18 | Energy | 19 | +1 | Downtrend since Sep 2026 | 4 | −8.1% | −1.4% | |
| 19 | Nifty100 Enhanced ESG | 29 | +10 | Downtrend since Sep 2026 | 0 | −6.3% | −9.8% | |
| 20 | Nifty50 Shariah | 41 | +21 | Downtrend since Feb 2026 | 8 | −5.5% | −15.3% | |
| 21 | Services Sector | 33 | +12 | Downtrend since Jan 2026 | 4 | −6.4% | −13.5% | |
| 22 | Mobility | 11 | −11 | Downtrend since Oct 2026 | 8 | −5.7% | −10.1% | |
| 23 | Infrastructure & Logistics (this page) | 18 | −5 | Downtrend since Sep 2026 | 8 | −8.5% | −5.6% | |
| 24 | New Age Consumption | 9 | −15 | Downtrend since Oct 2026 | 17 | −6.4% | −12.6% | |
| 25 | Tourism | 21 | −4 | Downtrend since Aug 2026 | 8 | −8.4% | −20.2% | |
| 26 | MNC | 5 | −21 | Downtrend since Oct 2026 | 8 | −8.6% | −4.1% | |
| 27 | MidSmall India Consumption | 16 | −11 | Downtrend since Sep 2026 | 8 | −8.5% | −15.3% | |
| 28 | Transportation & Logistics | 7 | −21 | Downtrend since Oct 2026 | 8 | −5.9% | −12.2% | |
| 29 | Aditya Birla Group | 6 | −23 | Downtrend since Oct 2026 | 8 | −9.1% | −1.9% | |
| 30 | Conglomerate 50 | 22 | −8 | Downtrend since Sep 2026 | 8 | −6.9% | −7.8% | |
| 31 | Nifty500 Multicap Infrastructure 50:30:20 | 20 | −11 | Downtrend since Sep 2026 | 0 | −8.5% | −8.4% | |
| 32 | Select 5 Corporate Groups (MAATR) | 13 | −19 | Downtrend since Sep 2026 | 0 | −8.8% | −8.1% | |
| 33 | Housing | 24 | −9 | Downtrend since Aug 2026 | 0 | −8.8% | −9.2% | |
| 34 | PSE | 38 | +4 | Downtrend since Jun 2026 | 0 | −6.9% | −9.7% | |
| 35 | Core Housing | 17 | −18 | Downtrend since Sep 2026 | 0 | −10.5% | −14.4% | |
| 36 | Consumption | 25 | −11 | Downtrend since Sep 2026 | 0 | −7.2% | −14.8% | |
| 37 | Nifty100 ESG Sector Leaders | 32 | −5 | Downtrend since Jan 2026 | 0 | −8.0% | −13.9% | |
| 38 | Commodities | 27 | −11 | Downtrend since Aug 2026 | 0 | −9.2% | −5.2% | |
| 39 | Mahindra Group | 23 | −16 | Downtrend since Sep 2026 | 0 | −5.8% | −13.9% | |
| 40 | CPSE | 36 | −4 | Downtrend since Jun 2026 | 0 | −8.4% | −9.7% | |
| 41 | Infrastructure | 34 | −7 | Downtrend since Aug 2026 | 0 | −9.0% | −10.4% | |
| 42 | Rural | 31 | −11 | Downtrend since Aug 2026 | 0 | −8.8% | −13.3% | |
| 43 | Railways PSU | 43 | 0 | Downtrend since Oct 2024 | 0 | −10.0% | −29.6% |
Infrastructure & Logistics: momentum rank among all markets, week by week
0 to 100 among every market with a year of history that week (today 133), not only its family.
How to read it. Near 100 it is rising faster than almost everything else, near 0 slower, whatever the market as a whole is doing.
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What followed each trend
Infrastructure & Logistics has had 26 uptrends and 26 downtrends since 2006. A year after an uptrend began it had risen by a median +15.2% (24 cases); a year after a downtrend began, +7.2% (23). From any week, the usual year was +9.5%.
Median return of Infrastructure & Logistics, total return, over the 3, 6 and 12 months after the week each trend began, and the share of cases that ended higher. The last row is the same measure from every week, the yardstick for the other two.
| Starting point | 3 months | Higher | 6 months | Higher | 12 months | Higher | Cases | More |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After an uptrend began | +2.2% | 50% | +4.1% | 64% | +15.2% | 67% | 24 | |
| After a downtrend began | −2.3% | 44% | +5.2% | 68% | +7.2% | 57% | 23 | |
| From any week (the usual) | +3.5% | 61% | +5.5% | 65% | +9.5% | 66% | 1,071 |
How much to read into this. These are descriptions of Infrastructure & Logistics's past, not a tested signal. The trends overlap with each other's next twelve months, and a trend is only called after the market has already moved, so its "during" return includes the climb that called it. 45 of the 52 trends fall in NSE's back-calculated history before the index launched. Whether these patterns hold across markets is the subject of the tests on the evidence page.
Every uptrend and downtrend in Infrastructure & Logistics, newest first. Returns are from the close of the week each began; a trend still going is measured to 14 Oct 2026.
| Trend | Began | Ended | Lasted | Return during | Next 3 months | Next 6 months | Next 12 months | History | More |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downtrend | Sep 2026 | still going | 4 weeks | −3.0% | – | – | – | – | |
| Uptrend | Apr 2026 | Sep 2026 | 5 months | +0.8% | +4.3% | – | – | – | |
| Downtrend | Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | 6 weeks | +1.8% | +4.6% | +8.1% | – | – | |
| Uptrend | Feb 2026 | Feb 2026 | 2 weeks | −0.6% | +6.2% | +6.0% | – | – | |
| Downtrend | Dec 2025 | Feb 2026 | 3 months | +0.8% | −3.5% | +6.1% | – | – | |
| Uptrend | Sep 2025 | Nov 2025 | 3 months | −1.4% | −2.9% | −10.0% | −0.9% | – | |
| Downtrend | Aug 2025 | Sep 2025 | 3 weeks | +3.6% | +4.7% | +2.8% | +10.2% | – | |
| Uptrend | May 2025 | Aug 2025 | 3 months | 0.0% | −0.6% | +4.1% | +6.9% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Nov 2024 | May 2025 | 6 months | −3.4% | −9.0% | +4.4% | +7.2% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Jun 2023 | Nov 2024 | 17 months | +83.3% | +14.0% | +34.2% | +84.9% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Jan 2023 | May 2023 | 4 months | +5.1% | +3.6% | +16.6% | +64.3% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Jul 2022 | Jan 2023 | 6 months | +10.9% | +7.9% | +9.3% | +20.8% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | May 2022 | Jul 2022 | 2 months | +4.0% | +13.4% | +22.6% | +12.7% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Apr 2022 | May 2022 | 6 weeks | −0.1% | −8.2% | +7.7% | +1.8% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Mar 2022 | Mar 2022 | 4 weeks | +3.8% | +2.2% | +23.7% | +9.1% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Aug 2020 | Feb 2022 | 19 months | +88.5% | +12.4% | +46.9% | +72.8% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Feb 2020 | Aug 2020 | 6 months | −4.2% | −6.5% | +1.6% | +53.4% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Jan 2020 | Feb 2020 | 8 weeks | +0.2% | −32.8% | −11.5% | +19.1% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Dec 2019 | Dec 2019 | 3 weeks | +0.4% | −15.1% | −12.7% | +17.9% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Nov 2019 | Dec 2019 | 2 weeks | −2.9% | −3.9% | −15.5% | +11.2% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Jul 2019 | Nov 2019 | 4 months | +0.6% | −1.1% | +8.3% | −9.5% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | May 2019 | Jul 2019 | 8 weeks | −3.0% | −10.5% | −2.5% | −17.6% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | May 2019 | May 2019 | 2 weeks | −0.6% | −4.0% | +0.1% | −20.4% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Apr 2019 | May 2019 | 5 weeks | −0.7% | −1.7% | −4.7% | −23.3% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | 13 months | −9.6% | −8.2% | −5.0% | −13.7% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Jan 2017 | Feb 2018 | 14 months | +27.2% | +14.1% | +21.2% | +33.7% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Nov 2016 | Jan 2017 | 2 months | +0.8% | +11.2% | +23.9% | +31.7% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Jun 2016 | Nov 2016 | 5 months | +6.2% | +9.6% | +3.2% | +23.6% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Aug 2015 | May 2016 | 10 months | −6.4% | −9.7% | −17.6% | +1.8% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Jul 2015 | Aug 2015 | 4 weeks | −0.7% | −6.0% | −17.7% | −1.9% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Apr 2015 | Jul 2015 | 3 months | +2.3% | +2.7% | −3.2% | −5.1% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Mar 2014 | Apr 2015 | 14 months | +45.7% | +38.0% | +41.6% | +49.7% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Jan 2014 | Feb 2014 | 8 weeks | −1.4% | +15.7% | +40.2% | +57.8% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Nov 2013 | Jan 2014 | 6 weeks | +0.9% | −3.2% | +38.1% | +44.0% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | May 2013 | Nov 2013 | 6 months | −3.8% | −15.2% | −2.5% | +31.9% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | May 2013 | May 2013 | 1 week | 0.0% | −18.4% | −6.9% | +27.0% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Feb 2013 | May 2013 | 3 months | −1.1% | −2.3% | −16.2% | −9.6% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Sep 2012 | Feb 2013 | 5 months | +2.8% | +4.5% | −9.6% | −11.1% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Apr 2012 | Sep 2012 | 5 months | −3.2% | −2.4% | +5.2% | −6.8% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Feb 2012 | Apr 2012 | 8 weeks | −4.7% | −19.0% | −11.5% | −6.6% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Nov 2010 | Feb 2012 | 15 months | −18.1% | −15.1% | −16.2% | −28.7% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Jul 2010 | Nov 2010 | 4 months | +6.5% | +10.7% | +0.2% | −10.6% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | May 2010 | Jul 2010 | 2 months | +4.3% | +7.0% | +14.5% | −6.9% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Mar 2010 | Apr 2010 | 7 weeks | +1.5% | 0.0% | +7.6% | −12.8% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Feb 2010 | Mar 2010 | 4 weeks | +4.1% | −3.8% | +9.7% | −6.8% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Apr 2009 | Feb 2010 | 10 months | +42.8% | +43.4% | +41.0% | +47.0% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Feb 2008 | Apr 2009 | 14 months | −45.9% | −12.2% | −27.3% | −59.8% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Apr 2007 | Feb 2008 | 10 months | +46.1% | +24.5% | +43.8% | +33.6% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Mar 2007 | Apr 2007 | 5 weeks | +10.0% | +22.8% | +44.1% | +35.6% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Aug 2006 | Mar 2007 | 7 months | +12.1% | +23.8% | +26.2% | +40.6% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Jun 2006 | Aug 2006 | 2 months | +8.5% | +22.2% | +47.1% | +47.2% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Apr 2006 | Jun 2006 | 2 months | −12.9% | −13.9% | +0.2% | +5.8% | back-calculated |
After big moves
Infrastructure & Logistics has fallen below its 200-day average 24 times. A year later it was higher 59% of the time, with a median return of +4.5%; from any day, 66% and +9.3%. The deepest fall within that year had a median of −12.7%, against −10.6% from any day.
What Infrastructure & Logistics did after each kind of move since 2006: the median total return over the next 3, 6 and 12 months, how often it was higher a year later, and the median of the deepest fall within that year. A move counts once: a cross of the 200-day average after 20 sessions on the other side, a fall of 10% or 20% from a high (counted again only after a new high), a 52-week high after three months without one. The last row is every day, the yardstick.
| After it | Times | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | Higher a year later | Deepest fall within a year | More |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fell below its 200-day average | 24 | +2.2% | +9.7% | +4.5% | 59% | −12.7% | |
| Rose back above it | 15 | +8.0% | +11.0% | +15.1% | 71% | −6.9% | |
| Fell 10% from its high | 13 | +7.6% | +12.6% | +7.9% | 67% | −14.8% | |
| Fell 20% from its high | 4 | −0.1% | +8.2% | +5.9% | 75% | −13.1% | |
| Made a new 52-week high | 16 | +3.6% | +1.5% | +13.0% | 73% | −11.1% | |
| Any day (the usual) | – | +3.5% | +5.4% | +9.3% | 66% | −10.6% |
Some of these are small samples. Where a move has happened fewer than ten times, one or two cases decide the median. These describe Infrastructure & Logistics's own past; the moves overlap, and a fall or a cross is only visible after it has happened. Pooled across 106 investable markets since each launched, the returns after these moves did not differ from an ordinary day by more than luck would explain once all ten comparisons are counted. Two patterns came close: a year after a new 52-week high, returns were about 6 points above usual, and after a fall below the 200-day average the deepest fall in the next year was about 2 points worse. The full test is on the evidence page.
Every such move in Infrastructure & Logistics, newest first. Blank where the period has not yet passed.
| Date | Move | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | Deepest fall in the year | History | More |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Oct 2026 | Down 10% | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| 15 Sept 2026 | Below 200-day | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| 17 Apr 2026 | 52-week high | 0.0% | +4.3% | – | – | – | – | |
| 10 Apr 2026 | Above 200-day | +4.1% | +8.1% | +0.3% | – | – | – | |
| 8 Dec 2025 | Below 200-day | +4.3% | +0.3% | +10.3% | – | – | – | |
| 15 May 2025 | Above 200-day | +2.4% | +0.5% | +5.1% | +8.3% | −7.9% | back-calculated | |
| 13 Jan 2025 | Down 20% | +1.2% | +6.1% | +18.7% | +11.4% | −7.1% | back-calculated | |
| 12 Nov 2024 | Below 200-day | +5.8% | −11.1% | +1.0% | +5.6% | −16.6% | back-calculated | |
| 25 Oct 2024 | Down 10% | +0.5% | −10.6% | −4.5% | +5.4% | −17.4% | back-calculated | |
| 4 Jun 2024 | Down 10% | +16.4% | +16.2% | +10.8% | +12.0% | −12.2% | back-calculated | |
| 25 Jul 2023 | 52-week high | +3.0% | +2.9% | +37.6% | +87.9% | never below | back-calculated | |
| 11 May 2023 | Above 200-day | +4.4% | +11.8% | +20.6% | +79.0% | −2.4% | back-calculated | |
| 27 Jan 2023 | Below 200-day | −6.8% | +3.6% | +16.6% | +64.3% | −6.8% | back-calculated | |
| 3 Oct 2022 | Down 10% | +6.8% | +5.6% | −4.3% | +21.0% | −9.5% | back-calculated | |
| 16 Aug 2022 | 52-week high | +8.6% | +5.0% | −8.9% | +13.0% | −11.6% | back-calculated | |
| 18 Jul 2022 | Above 200-day | +10.6% | +9.4% | +14.3% | +20.0% | −3.1% | back-calculated | |
| 12 May 2022 | Below 200-day | −0.3% | +12.3% | +21.2% | +11.6% | −7.9% | back-calculated | |
| 11 May 2022 | Down 10% | −2.1% | +9.5% | +17.6% | +10.3% | −10.2% | back-calculated | |
| 24 Feb 2022 | Below 200-day | +8.7% | +7.9% | +25.1% | +9.0% | −3.2% | back-calculated | |
| 22 Feb 2022 | Down 10% | +1.3% | +0.4% | +16.3% | +1.0% | −8.5% | back-calculated | |
| 18 Nov 2020 | 52-week high | +8.6% | +28.9% | +40.4% | +66.7% | −0.6% | back-calculated | |
| 23 Sept 2020 | Below 200-day | +7.1% | +28.7% | +53.7% | +97.7% | −2.6% | back-calculated | |
| 12 Aug 2020 | Above 200-day | +2.1% | +10.5% | +47.0% | +72.8% | −4.2% | back-calculated | |
| 6 Jul 2020 | Above 200-day | −3.5% | +0.8% | +29.1% | +67.6% | −6.1% | back-calculated | |
| 25 Feb 2020 | Below 200-day | −28.8% | −14.8% | −2.6% | +37.9% | −33.7% | back-calculated | |
| 23 Jan 2020 | 52-week high | −3.8% | −28.5% | −16.2% | +15.4% | −37.9% | back-calculated | |
| 23 Sept 2019 | Above 200-day | −1.8% | −0.6% | −31.3% | −9.2% | −33.7% | back-calculated | |
| 25 Jul 2019 | Below 200-day | −3.6% | +2.2% | +7.5% | −8.6% | −32.4% | back-calculated | |
| 13 May 2019 | Below 200-day | +7.2% | −1.5% | +2.6% | −18.5% | −31.5% | back-calculated | |
| 11 Mar 2019 | Above 200-day | +1.8% | +2.7% | −6.1% | −29.1% | −29.1% | back-calculated | |
| 16 Jul 2018 | Down 20% | +5.7% | −6.2% | −2.2% | +0.4% | −8.4% | back-calculated | |
| 7 Mar 2018 | Down 10% | +1.7% | −4.0% | −3.6% | −8.0% | −18.1% | back-calculated | |
| 7 Mar 2018 | Below 200-day | +1.7% | −4.0% | −3.6% | −8.0% | −18.1% | back-calculated | |
| 1 Feb 2017 | 52-week high | +1.7% | +12.4% | +17.0% | +20.0% | never below | back-calculated | |
| 15 Nov 2016 | Below 200-day | +2.2% | +14.6% | +25.4% | +36.7% | −2.5% | back-calculated | |
| 31 Aug 2016 | 52-week high | −0.5% | −6.4% | +4.1% | +18.6% | −11.1% | back-calculated | |
| 13 Apr 2016 | Above 200-day | −1.0% | +8.0% | +11.0% | +24.6% | −3.0% | back-calculated | |
| 13 Aug 2015 | Below 200-day | −7.2% | −7.9% | −16.4% | +3.3% | −19.3% | back-calculated | |
| 6 May 2015 | Below 200-day | +0.9% | +6.2% | −1.8% | −3.3% | −17.0% | back-calculated | |
| 31 Oct 2014 | 52-week high | +1.5% | +6.9% | +0.8% | −3.7% | −7.5% | back-calculated | |
| 26 Mar 2014 | 52-week high | +2.6% | +34.3% | +31.2% | +51.4% | never below | back-calculated | |
| 27 Jan 2014 | Below 200-day | +2.1% | +16.5% | +47.0% | +59.4% | −0.8% | back-calculated | |
| 21 Oct 2013 | Above 200-day | −0.2% | 0.0% | +15.9% | +47.4% | −5.3% | back-calculated | |
| 7 May 2013 | Above 200-day | −5.6% | −14.0% | −4.4% | +10.2% | −21.2% | back-calculated | |
| 26 Feb 2013 | Below 200-day | −6.1% | −0.9% | −17.9% | −5.2% | −19.5% | back-calculated | |
| 4 Jan 2013 | 52-week high | −5.3% | −16.6% | −15.7% | −11.3% | −27.5% | back-calculated | |
| 29 Jun 2012 | Above 200-day | −1.7% | +8.9% | +13.6% | −4.2% | −7.8% | back-calculated | |
| 23 Apr 2012 | Below 200-day | −10.9% | −1.3% | +7.0% | +1.4% | −11.6% | back-calculated | |
| 2 Feb 2012 | Above 200-day | +3.3% | −8.7% | −5.1% | +3.6% | −14.4% | back-calculated | |
| 25 Nov 2010 | Below 200-day | +0.1% | −15.1% | −12.4% | −24.2% | −27.4% | back-calculated | |
| 13 Sept 2010 | 52-week high | +4.1% | −7.0% | −17.2% | −23.4% | −26.9% | back-calculated | |
| 15 Jun 2010 | Above 200-day | +3.9% | +8.2% | +0.6% | −8.6% | −14.2% | back-calculated | |
| 6 May 2010 | Below 200-day | −1.3% | +3.8% | +11.4% | −9.9% | −13.7% | back-calculated | |
| 19 Feb 2010 | Below 200-day | +4.9% | −3.8% | +9.7% | −6.8% | −10.6% | back-calculated | |
| 8 Jan 2010 | 52-week high | −8.7% | −1.2% | −2.3% | −4.5% | −12.7% | back-calculated | |
| 28 Aug 2009 | 52-week high | +3.4% | −2.7% | −0.3% | +2.8% | −12.0% | back-calculated | |
| 15 Apr 2009 | Above 200-day | +23.1% | +33.4% | +53.4% | +52.6% | −5.2% | back-calculated | |
| 11 Feb 2008 | Below 200-day | −4.1% | −2.9% | −21.0% | −56.1% | −59.8% | back-calculated | |
| 21 Jan 2008 | Down 20% | −3.9% | −12.5% | −29.0% | −60.1% | −63.6% | back-calculated | |
| 18 Jan 2008 | Down 10% | −14.4% | −21.5% | −36.4% | −63.4% | −67.7% | back-calculated | |
| 19 Oct 2007 | Down 10% | +22.4% | +18.4% | −7.1% | −60.7% | −60.7% | back-calculated | |
| 17 Aug 2007 | Down 10% | +12.1% | +51.9% | +27.4% | −4.3% | −20.5% | back-calculated | |
| 1 Jun 2007 | 52-week high | +6.5% | +10.5% | +53.1% | +4.2% | −4.8% | back-calculated | |
| 5 Mar 2007 | Below 200-day | +3.0% | +21.8% | +41.5% | +53.9% | never below | back-calculated | |
| 23 Feb 2007 | Down 10% | −4.7% | +11.7% | +22.2% | +44.8% | −9.5% | back-calculated | |
| 3 Nov 2006 | 52-week high | +7.4% | +11.8% | +5.1% | +70.5% | −9.4% | back-calculated | |
| 18 Jul 2006 | Below 200-day | +14.2% | +27.2% | +46.2% | +74.7% | −3.6% | back-calculated | |
| 8 Jun 2006 | Below 200-day | +16.6% | +28.9% | +57.4% | +58.1% | −4.3% | back-calculated | |
| 1 Jun 2006 | Down 20% | −5.7% | +8.5% | +30.6% | +40.5% | −17.8% | back-calculated | |
| 18 May 2006 | Down 10% | −19.2% | −5.4% | +14.3% | +23.1% | −26.5% | back-calculated | |
| 3 Apr 2006 | 52-week high | +8.7% | −13.2% | +1.5% | +3.9% | −27.8% | back-calculated | |
| 19 Oct 2005 | Down 10% | +9.1% | +25.7% | +68.4% | +67.5% | −3.3% | back-calculated |
What the trend rules did here
₹1 lakh put into Infrastructure & Logistics in April 2006 and held would be ₹6.2 lakh today after costs and tax. The better of the two simple rules, the 10-month average, would have left ₹6.9 lakh. Each rule holds Infrastructure & Logistics while its signal is up and sits in a liquid fund otherwise, deciding at one day's close and trading at the next.
₹1 lakh from April 2006 to 14 Oct 2026, when all three rules had enough history. Costs: 0.10% of each trade and fund running costs. After tax: Indian capital-gains rules as they stood on each date, at the 30% slab, everything sold at the end. The ensemble trades a little every day, which no one would do in a taxable account, so it has no after-tax figure. The worst three years compare the rule's return a year with holding's over the same three years.
| Before tax | After tax | After tax, a year | Deepest fall | Worst three years against holding | When | More | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying and holding | ₹6.7 lakh | ₹6.2 lakh | 9.3% | −71%, Jan 2008 to Oct 2008 | – | – | |
| 10-month average | ₹7.7 lakh | ₹6.9 lakh | 9.9% | −38%, Jan 2008 to Mar 2008 | −19.3% points a year | Mar 2020 to Apr 2023 | |
| 200-day average | ₹5.4 lakh | ₹5.0 lakh | 8.2% | −38%, Jan 2008 to Mar 2008 | −24.1% points a year | Mar 2020 to Apr 2023 | |
| All 24 signals (the ensemble) | ₹9.5 lakh | not computed | – | −27%, Jan 2008 to Mar 2009 | −19.6% points a year | Mar 2020 to Apr 2023 |
Infrastructure & Logistics: growth of 1 under each rule
Weekly, after costs, before tax. Log scale: equal slopes are equal returns.
How to read it. Buying and holding: 9.8% a year, worst fall -71%. The 10-month rule: 10.5%, worst fall -38%. The 200-day rule: 8.5%, worst fall -38%. Look first at the big falls, where the rule lines go flat, and then at the recoveries, where they lag.
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Each rule against buying and holding over the same dates, over the full history and, where it is three years or more, since NSE launched the index.
| Rule | Period | Rule, a year | Buy and hold | After tax, rule minus buy and hold | Rule's worst fall | Buy and hold's | Time invested | Switches a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-month average | Full, from Apr 2006 | 10.5% | 9.8% | +0.6 pts | −38% | −71% | 65% | 1.1 |
| 200-day average | Full, from Apr 2006 | 8.5% | 9.8% | −1.1 pts | −38% | −71% | 65% | 3.6 |
| All 24 signals (the ensemble) | Full, from Apr 2006 | 11.6% | 9.8% | – | −27% | −71% | 56% | 4.6 |
Not a test. These two rules were pre-registered on seven markets, and on those none beat buying and holding by more than luck would explain (the evidence). Run on all 121 investable markets here, the 10-month rule kept more after tax than buying and holding on 33 and the 200-day rule on 27; both had a shallower worst fall on nearly all of them. With this many markets, some would look good by chance, so one market's result says little about the next decade.
About this market
Nifty India Infrastructure & Logistics, in themes. Source: NSE total-return index (NSE factsheet). History from Apr 2005. Its returns, calendar years, falls, valuation and holdings are on the index tab.
Back-calculated history. NSE launched this index in June 2025. Its history before that is a back-calculation: today's rules applied to the past. Rules chosen with that past in view tend to look better in it, so treat the pre-launch years, marked on each chart, with care.
Trend asks whether a market is rising; momentum asks whether it is rising faster than the others. Both look back over the same horizons: 1, 3, 6 and 12 months. Every market is measured on its return above a liquid fund (the 91-day T-bill), so an index that only keeps pace with cash is not trending.
The trend score is the share of 24 signals that point up: four ways of asking whether a price is trending (above where it was, above its average, a short average above a long one, in the top half of its range), each at six horizons from one month to a year. 100 means all agree it is rising; 0 that all agree it is falling.
Uptrend and downtrend. Read once a week, a market enters an uptrend when its score reaches 70 (17 of 24 signals up) and stays in it until the score falls to 30 or below, when it enters a downtrend. "Uptrend since March 2026" means the score first reached 70 in March and has not fallen to 30 since. The gap between the two lines keeps a market from flipping every other week.
Describing is not forecasting. In my pre-registered tests no trend or momentum rule on indices beat buying and holding by more than luck would explain, and after tax every rule trailed on the large-cap indices. What the rules did reliably was cut the worst falls. What the tests found. Many indices are back-calculated by NSE before their launch; their pages say so and draw that history lighter.
The workings
The question
Data
Every chart has a table view, a CSV download and a link to its published JSON. Bundles are listed in data status.