Markets
Nifty Total Market: downtrend since September 2026
Nifty Total Market has been in a downtrend since September 2026 (8 weeks). Its trend score is 0 out of 100, nearly all signals down. On momentum it is mid-table, 64th of 139, and 8th of 21 in broad market.
Written for anyone holding or watching Nifty Total Market. Data to 26 Oct 2026.
- Trend
- Downtrend since Sep 2026
- Momentum
- 64th of 139 markets, by rank
- Below its high
- 9.8% total return
- P/E
- 21.1 33rd percentile
- 1 year
- −7.5% total return
Today
Of 17 earlier downtrends in Nifty Total Market that lasted 8 weeks or more, 29% went on for at least another three months and 18% for six. Across broad market indices (since each launch): 38% and 15% of 189.
- Trend
- Downtrend since September 2026score 0 of 100; four weeks ago 8
- Momentum rank
- 8th of 21in broad market; 64th of 139 markets overall
- The 10-month rule
- in cash since September 2026month-end price against its 10-month average
- The 200-day rule
- in cash since September 2026daily close against its 200-session average
| Signal | 1 month1m | 2 months2m | 3 months3m | 6 months6m | 9 months9m | 12 months12m | Up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past returnhigher than it was that long ago | Down | Down | Down | Down | Down | Down | 0 of 6 |
| Price against its averageabove its average over the period | Down | Down | Down | Down | Down | Down | 0 of 6 |
| Fast average against slowa quarter-length average above the full-length one | Down | Down | Down | Down | Down | Down | 0 of 6 |
| Place in its rangein the upper half of the period's high-low range | Down | Down | Down | Down | Down | Down | 0 of 6 |
| Up at this horizon | 0 of 4 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 24 |
By speed. 0 of the 8 one- and two-month signals point up, 0 of the 8 three- and six-month ones and 0 of the 8 nine- and twelve-month ones. Fast signals react first and turn most often; slow ones confirm. Tested across markets, no speed beat another by more than luck, and none beat holding after tax (the evidence).
| Over the last | 1 month1M | 3 months3M | 6 months6M | 12 months12M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return over cash | −6.4% | −6.7% | −6.8% | −12.0% |
| Percentile | 57 | 54 | 54 | 42 |
Trend over time
The trend score each week since 2006, and the trends it marks: an uptrend from the week the score reaches 70 until it falls to 30, and a downtrend the other way.
Nifty Total Market: trend score, week by week
Share of 24 trend signals pointing up, 0 to 100, weekly to 26 Oct 2026; the 13-week average in bold. Before Oct 2021 the index is NSE's back-calculation.
How to read it. The score moves fast because a third of its signals look back only one or two months. Long stretches near 100 or 0 are the strong trends; the lines at 70 and 30 are where a trend starts.
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Uptrends and downtrends
Weekly; blank before the first trend was established.
How to read it. 27 uptrends and 27 downtrends since 2006. Hover for the dates; the next section has each one's return.
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Nifty Total Market: fast, medium and slow signals
Share of the 8 signals up at each speed (four signal types at two horizons), weekly, last two years. The three average to the trend score.
How to read it. The fast line swings from 0 to 100 within weeks; the slow line moves over months. When fast sits near 0 while slow sits near 100, the market is dipping inside a longer uptrend; the reverse is a bounce inside a longer fall.
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Which horizons are rising
Up signals out of four at each horizon, weekly, last three years. Blue: all four up; red: all four down.
How to read it. Trends turn from the top row down: the one-month signals flip first and the twelve-month ones last. Red spreading down the rows is a downtrend taking hold; blue spreading down is a recovery being confirmed.
Against its peers
Nifty Total Market ranks 8th of 21 in broad market on momentum; thirteen weeks ago it was 17th of 21. Momentum here is the return over cash at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months, each ranked, then averaged.
Nifty Total Market: place among broad market, week by week
Momentum rank within the family, last three years: 100 is first, 0 is last, of the 21 live members.
How to read it. A market that leads its family for months shows as a long stretch near the top; one that swings from top to bottom takes turns with its peers.
Nifty Total Market: place among broad market, week by week. Line chart, 3 Nov 2023 to 26 Oct 2026. Place in broad market: latest 65, range 10 to 80.
Broad market, ranked by momentum on 26 Oct 2026. "13 weeks ago" is the rank then, among the members live then.
| Rank | Market | 13 weeks ago | Places gained | Trend | Score | 3 months over cash | 12 months over cash | More |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nifty Smallcap 50 | 1 | 0 | Downtrend since Oct 2026 | 29 | −4.3% | −0.7% | |
| 2 | Nifty Microcap 250 | 6 | +4 | Downtrend since Oct 2026 | 29 | −5.1% | −3.1% | |
| 3 | Nifty Smallcap 100 | 5 | +2 | Downtrend since Oct 2026 | 25 | −5.8% | −5.5% | |
| 4 | Nifty Smallcap 500 | 10 | +6 | Downtrend since Oct 2026 | 25 | −6.4% | −6.4% | |
| 5 | Nifty India FPI 150 | 16 | +11 | Downtrend since Sep 2026 | 0 | −6.4% | −11.9% | |
| 6 | Nifty 50 | 21 | +15 | Downtrend since Jan 2026 | 0 | −5.4% | −14.9% | |
| 7 | Nifty 100 | 20 | +13 | Downtrend since Sep 2026 | 0 | −5.9% | −13.8% | |
| 8 | Nifty Total Market (this page) | 17 | +9 | Downtrend since Sep 2026 | 0 | −6.7% | −12.0% | |
| 9 | Nifty500 Multicap 50:25:25 | 15 | +6 | Downtrend since Sep 2026 | 0 | −7.0% | −11.0% | |
| 10 | Nifty Smallcap 250 | 12 | +2 | Downtrend since Oct 2026 | 8 | −7.0% | −7.8% | |
| 11 | Nifty500 LargeMidSmall Equal-Cap Weighted | 13 | +2 | Downtrend since Oct 2026 | 8 | −7.4% | −10.2% | |
| 12 | Nifty 500 | 18 | +6 | Downtrend since Sep 2026 | 0 | −6.8% | −12.4% | |
| 13 | Nifty 200 | 19 | +6 | Downtrend since Sep 2026 | 0 | −6.7% | −12.9% | |
| 14 | Nifty MidSmallcap400 50:50 | 7 | −7 | Downtrend since Oct 2026 | 8 | −8.2% | −8.6% | |
| 15 | Nifty LargeMidcap 250 | 14 | −1 | Downtrend since Sep 2026 | 0 | −7.7% | −11.6% | |
| 16 | Nifty Next 50 | 4 | −12 | Downtrend since Oct 2026 | 8 | −8.4% | −8.5% | |
| 17 | Nifty MidSmallcap 400 | 8 | −9 | Downtrend since Oct 2026 | 8 | −8.6% | −9.0% | |
| 18 | Nifty Midcap 50 | 3 | −15 | Downtrend since Sep 2026 | 8 | −9.3% | −7.6% | |
| 19 | Nifty Midcap Select | 2 | −17 | Downtrend since Oct 2026 | 8 | −10.0% | −5.5% | |
| 20 | Nifty Midcap 150 | 11 | −9 | Downtrend since Sep 2026 | 8 | −9.4% | −9.5% | |
| 21 | Nifty Midcap 100 | 9 | −12 | Downtrend since Sep 2026 | 8 | −9.5% | −9.2% |
Nifty Total Market: momentum rank among all markets, week by week
0 to 100 among every market with a year of history that week (today 139), not only its family.
How to read it. Near 100 it is rising faster than almost everything else, near 0 slower, whatever the market as a whole is doing.
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What followed each trend
Nifty Total Market has had 27 uptrends and 27 downtrends since 2006. A year after an uptrend began it had risen by a median +7.2% (26 cases); a year after a downtrend began, +7.7% (25). From any week, the usual year was +11.9%.
Median return of Nifty Total Market, total return, over the 3, 6 and 12 months after the week each trend began, and the share of cases that ended higher. The last row is the same measure from every week, the yardstick for the other two.
| Starting point | 3 months | Higher | 6 months | Higher | 12 months | Higher | Cases | More |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After an uptrend began | +4.0% | 63% | +4.3% | 77% | +7.2% | 77% | 26 | |
| After a downtrend began | +2.8% | 65% | +6.1% | 81% | +7.7% | 80% | 25 | |
| From any week (the usual) | +4.1% | 66% | +6.8% | 71% | +11.9% | 79% | 1,072 |
How much to read into this. These are descriptions of Nifty Total Market's past, not a tested signal. The trends overlap with each other's next twelve months, and a trend is only called after the market has already moved, so its "during" return includes the climb that called it. 39 of the 54 trends fall in NSE's back-calculated history before the index launched. Whether these patterns hold across markets is the subject of the tests on the evidence page.
Every uptrend and downtrend in Nifty Total Market, newest first. Returns are from the close of the week each began; a trend still going is measured to 26 Oct 2026.
| Trend | Began | Ended | Lasted | Return during | Next 3 months | Next 6 months | Next 12 months | History | More |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downtrend | Sep 2026 | still going | 8 weeks | −5.7% | – | – | – | – | |
| Uptrend | Jul 2026 | Sep 2026 | 2 months | 0.0% | −5.8% | – | – | – | |
| Downtrend | Jan 2026 | Jul 2026 | 6 months | +3.8% | +1.3% | +4.1% | – | – | |
| Uptrend | Sep 2025 | Jan 2026 | 4 months | +1.0% | +2.1% | −6.7% | 0.0% | – | |
| Downtrend | Aug 2025 | Sep 2025 | 5 weeks | +1.9% | +6.3% | +6.0% | +6.0% | – | |
| Uptrend | May 2025 | Aug 2025 | 3 months | −0.3% | −0.1% | +5.5% | +0.1% | – | |
| Downtrend | Dec 2024 | May 2025 | 5 months | −3.8% | −4.9% | +5.4% | +6.9% | – | |
| Uptrend | Dec 2024 | Dec 2024 | 3 weeks | −4.2% | −12.5% | +0.3% | +1.4% | – | |
| Downtrend | Nov 2024 | Nov 2024 | 3 weeks | +3.4% | −4.8% | +3.0% | +9.0% | – | |
| Uptrend | May 2023 | Nov 2024 | 18 months | +50.5% | +10.5% | +13.9% | +38.7% | – | |
| Downtrend | Jan 2023 | May 2023 | 3 months | +3.0% | +3.8% | +14.5% | +36.2% | – | |
| Uptrend | Aug 2022 | Jan 2023 | 6 months | +3.5% | +4.0% | +1.3% | +14.8% | – | |
| Downtrend | May 2022 | Jul 2022 | 3 months | +4.1% | +5.7% | +11.4% | +10.7% | – | |
| Uptrend | Apr 2022 | Apr 2022 | 5 weeks | −1.9% | −10.3% | +0.2% | −0.8% | – | |
| Downtrend | Feb 2022 | Mar 2022 | 5 weeks | +3.3% | −0.3% | +8.3% | +4.1% | – | |
| Uptrend | Jul 2020 | Feb 2022 | 19 months | +69.5% | +7.7% | +36.6% | +54.8% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Feb 2020 | Jul 2020 | 5 months | −4.0% | −9.9% | +4.0% | +40.2% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Oct 2019 | Feb 2020 | 4 months | +5.2% | +5.9% | −19.3% | +4.0% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Jul 2019 | Oct 2019 | 3 months | −1.3% | +1.7% | +8.8% | −1.3% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | May 2019 | Jul 2019 | 8 weeks | −2.6% | −7.4% | +1.4% | −15.1% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | May 2019 | May 2019 | 2 weeks | +0.4% | −3.0% | +4.6% | −19.4% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Mar 2019 | May 2019 | 8 weeks | +1.2% | +1.6% | +0.4% | −28.8% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Sep 2018 | Mar 2019 | 6 months | +1.3% | 0.0% | +6.2% | +1.1% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Jul 2018 | Sep 2018 | 2 months | −1.4% | −8.2% | −5.4% | −7.0% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | May 2018 | Jul 2018 | 2 months | +0.9% | +7.2% | −1.1% | +7.7% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Apr 2018 | May 2018 | 4 weeks | −2.5% | +0.6% | −7.0% | −0.7% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Mar 2018 | Apr 2018 | 7 weeks | +4.2% | +4.0% | +8.9% | +6.4% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Jan 2017 | Mar 2018 | 13 months | +26.1% | +10.9% | +19.5% | +32.2% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Nov 2016 | Jan 2017 | 2 months | +4.4% | +10.2% | +18.8% | +35.5% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | May 2016 | Nov 2016 | 6 months | +6.1% | +8.8% | +5.3% | +25.8% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Aug 2015 | May 2016 | 9 months | −5.6% | −4.1% | −16.1% | +9.3% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Jul 2015 | Aug 2015 | 5 weeks | −0.3% | −2.9% | −13.9% | +3.4% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Apr 2015 | Jul 2015 | 3 months | +3.3% | +4.2% | +1.2% | −0.5% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Feb 2014 | Apr 2015 | 14 months | +44.0% | +24.0% | +36.3% | +49.5% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Feb 2014 | Feb 2014 | 3 weeks | +1.4% | +19.0% | +33.2% | +55.2% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Oct 2013 | Jan 2014 | 4 months | +1.7% | +5.0% | +14.3% | +41.6% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Jun 2013 | Oct 2013 | 4 months | +0.5% | −1.2% | +5.9% | +36.3% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | May 2013 | Jun 2013 | 6 weeks | −0.4% | −5.0% | +4.8% | +14.6% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Mar 2013 | Apr 2013 | 2 months | +2.1% | +3.8% | −8.1% | +12.1% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Sep 2012 | Feb 2013 | 6 months | +6.5% | +9.6% | +3.7% | +6.2% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Aug 2012 | Sep 2012 | 2 weeks | +1.6% | +14.2% | +8.5% | +2.2% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Aug 2012 | Aug 2012 | 3 weeks | +1.0% | +8.4% | +12.4% | +2.3% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Jul 2012 | Aug 2012 | 2 weeks | +2.5% | +10.2% | +19.6% | +10.1% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Jul 2012 | Jul 2012 | 3 weeks | −1.9% | +7.1% | +14.8% | +8.2% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Apr 2012 | Jun 2012 | 3 months | +0.7% | +1.8% | +9.9% | +6.5% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Feb 2012 | Apr 2012 | 8 weeks | −3.4% | −11.4% | −3.1% | +8.1% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Jan 2011 | Feb 2012 | 13 months | −5.7% | +1.2% | −0.5% | −13.0% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Jun 2010 | Jan 2011 | 7 months | +10.1% | +12.1% | +10.2% | +1.5% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 4 weeks | +3.7% | +12.9% | +21.4% | +8.3% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Apr 2009 | May 2010 | 13 months | +60.5% | +38.0% | +49.0% | +62.1% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Feb 2008 | Apr 2009 | 14 months | −38.9% | −7.8% | −21.0% | −54.1% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Aug 2006 | Feb 2008 | 18 months | +64.7% | +15.9% | +23.1% | +26.4% | back-calculated | |
| Downtrend | Jun 2006 | Aug 2006 | 2 months | +13.8% | +22.1% | +41.1% | +47.6% | back-calculated | |
| Uptrend | Apr 2006 | Jun 2006 | 2 months | −12.0% | −12.8% | +1.3% | +9.5% | back-calculated |
After big moves
Nifty Total Market has fallen below its 200-day average 23 times. A year later it was higher 76% of the time, with a median return of +7.8%; from any day, 80% and +12.1%. The deepest fall within that year had a median of −10.0%, against −7.4% from any day.
What Nifty Total Market did after each kind of move since 2006: the median total return over the next 3, 6 and 12 months, how often it was higher a year later, and the median of the deepest fall within that year. A move counts once: a cross of the 200-day average after 20 sessions on the other side, a fall of 10% or 20% from a high (counted again only after a new high), a 52-week high after three months without one. The last row is every day, the yardstick.
| After it | Times | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | Higher a year later | Deepest fall within a year | More |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fell below its 200-day average | 23 | +2.8% | +5.4% | +7.8% | 76% | −10.0% | |
| Rose back above it | 16 | +5.5% | +6.1% | +16.7% | 80% | −5.5% | |
| Fell 10% from its high | 13 | +3.0% | +12.3% | +10.8% | 92% | −5.5% | |
| Fell 20% from its high | 3 | +3.4% | +21.3% | +42.8% | 67% | −20.9% | |
| Made a new 52-week high | 15 | +4.8% | +6.3% | +21.6% | 93% | −5.9% | |
| Any day (the usual) | – | +4.1% | +6.8% | +12.1% | 80% | −7.4% |
Some of these are small samples. Where a move has happened fewer than ten times, one or two cases decide the median. These describe Nifty Total Market's own past; the moves overlap, and a fall or a cross is only visible after it has happened. Pooled across 106 investable markets since each launched, the returns after these moves did not differ from an ordinary day by more than luck would explain once all ten comparisons are counted. Two patterns came close: a year after a new 52-week high, returns were about 6 points above usual, and after a fall below the 200-day average the deepest fall in the next year was about 2 points worse. The full test is on the evidence page.
Every such move in Nifty Total Market, newest first. Blank where the period has not yet passed.
| Date | Move | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | Deepest fall in the year | History | More |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sept 2026 | Below 200-day | −1.3% | – | – | – | – | – | |
| 6 May 2026 | Above 200-day | −2.6% | +3.4% | – | – | – | – | |
| 20 Jan 2026 | Below 200-day | +3.2% | −1.2% | +2.2% | – | – | – | |
| 17 Oct 2025 | 52-week high | +1.4% | −2.9% | −4.1% | – | – | – | |
| 12 May 2025 | Above 200-day | +4.2% | +1.6% | +6.1% | +0.9% | −8.1% | – | |
| 6 Jan 2025 | Below 200-day | −3.8% | −9.8% | +6.3% | +6.0% | −10.8% | – | |
| 21 Nov 2024 | Below 200-day | +2.5% | −5.7% | +4.6% | +10.5% | −9.0% | – | |
| 13 Nov 2024 | Down 10% | +6.8% | −4.5% | +3.8% | +10.2% | −9.4% | – | |
| 7 Jun 2023 | 52-week high | +3.7% | +9.0% | +18.2% | +39.6% | −0.8% | – | |
| 12 Apr 2023 | Above 200-day | +4.2% | +12.0% | +18.1% | +38.6% | −0.6% | – | |
| 14 Mar 2023 | Down 10% | +3.8% | +13.3% | +24.7% | +38.9% | −1.1% | – | |
| 22 Feb 2023 | Below 200-day | −2.9% | +7.8% | +16.7% | +39.4% | −3.4% | – | |
| 13 Sept 2022 | 52-week high | −5.9% | +2.1% | −8.4% | +14.2% | −9.1% | – | |
| 29 Jul 2022 | Above 200-day | +4.0% | +6.1% | +1.7% | +17.4% | −2.6% | – | |
| 25 Apr 2022 | Below 200-day | −7.4% | −1.9% | +4.1% | +5.4% | −11.6% | – | |
| 24 Feb 2022 | Down 10% | +7.2% | +3.0% | +12.3% | +7.8% | −5.5% | – | |
| 24 Feb 2022 | Below 200-day | +7.2% | +3.0% | +12.3% | +7.8% | −5.5% | – | |
| 6 Nov 2020 | 52-week high | +10.7% | +24.3% | +25.3% | +58.0% | never below | back-calculated | |
| 9 Jul 2020 | Above 200-day | +4.1% | +9.4% | +33.5% | +56.1% | −1.8% | back-calculated | |
| 12 Mar 2020 | Down 20% | −6.0% | +3.4% | +21.3% | +60.8% | −20.9% | back-calculated | |
| 6 Mar 2020 | Down 10% | −17.8% | −9.2% | +3.4% | +42.2% | −31.0% | back-calculated | |
| 28 Feb 2020 | Below 200-day | −24.2% | −9.9% | +4.0% | +40.2% | −32.3% | back-calculated | |
| 19 Dec 2019 | 52-week high | +1.5% | −31.1% | −13.6% | +12.3% | −36.7% | back-calculated | |
| 20 Sept 2019 | Above 200-day | +2.3% | +6.9% | −30.9% | −2.1% | −32.2% | back-calculated | |
| 24 Jul 2019 | Below 200-day | −2.0% | +5.6% | +9.7% | −1.5% | −31.5% | back-calculated | |
| 13 May 2019 | Below 200-day | +6.5% | −0.9% | +6.2% | −17.7% | −31.3% | back-calculated | |
| 5 Mar 2019 | Above 200-day | +4.9% | +6.5% | −1.2% | −10.5% | −13.3% | back-calculated | |
| 19 Dec 2018 | Above 200-day | −1.1% | +3.4% | +4.4% | +7.5% | −5.5% | back-calculated | |
| 4 Oct 2018 | Down 10% | +0.4% | +2.7% | +9.0% | +5.4% | −4.9% | back-calculated | |
| 24 Sept 2018 | Below 200-day | −8.3% | −1.7% | +4.0% | −1.1% | −8.9% | back-calculated | |
| 20 Aug 2018 | 52-week high | −4.1% | −9.0% | −9.3% | −8.2% | −14.4% | back-calculated | |
| 21 May 2018 | Below 200-day | +1.5% | +7.6% | −2.1% | +7.8% | −7.2% | back-calculated | |
| 23 Mar 2018 | Down 10% | +6.3% | +5.0% | +6.1% | +10.8% | −4.0% | back-calculated | |
| 19 Mar 2018 | Below 200-day | +5.3% | +3.9% | +7.8% | +7.5% | −5.0% | back-calculated | |
| 6 Feb 2017 | 52-week high | +1.2% | +9.7% | +14.4% | +23.5% | −1.2% | back-calculated | |
| 21 Nov 2016 | Down 10% | +2.3% | +13.2% | +20.6% | +38.7% | −0.5% | back-calculated | |
| 21 Nov 2016 | Below 200-day | +2.3% | +13.2% | +20.6% | +38.7% | −0.5% | back-calculated | |
| 11 Jul 2016 | 52-week high | +3.2% | +4.2% | +1.6% | +23.1% | −5.4% | back-calculated | |
| 13 Apr 2016 | Above 200-day | +0.9% | +10.0% | +15.4% | +24.6% | −1.4% | back-calculated | |
| 16 Oct 2015 | Above 200-day | −5.1% | −9.2% | −2.4% | +10.3% | −15.2% | back-calculated | |
| 24 Aug 2015 | Below 200-day | +1.1% | +3.5% | −9.4% | +17.0% | −10.0% | back-calculated | |
| 11 Jun 2015 | Down 10% | +5.9% | −1.8% | −0.5% | +6.1% | −10.5% | back-calculated | |
| 6 May 2015 | Below 200-day | +0.6% | +7.6% | +2.1% | +1.1% | −11.8% | back-calculated | |
| 31 Oct 2013 | 52-week high | +0.1% | −2.4% | +9.7% | +43.9% | −3.9% | back-calculated | |
| 19 Sept 2013 | Above 200-day | +2.5% | +5.4% | +9.6% | +40.3% | −5.0% | back-calculated | |
| 11 Jul 2013 | Above 200-day | −6.2% | +2.2% | +6.6% | +37.7% | −11.5% | back-calculated | |
| 11 Jun 2013 | Below 200-day | −0.1% | −0.2% | +7.3% | +38.5% | −10.1% | back-calculated | |
| 21 Mar 2013 | Below 200-day | +4.8% | −1.0% | +2.8% | +18.0% | −7.3% | back-calculated | |
| 18 Sept 2012 | 52-week high | +2.8% | +7.0% | +0.7% | +3.5% | −6.7% | back-calculated | |
| 8 Jun 2012 | Above 200-day | +4.8% | +5.5% | +18.9% | +13.9% | −0.3% | back-calculated | |
| 4 May 2012 | Below 200-day | −4.7% | +3.3% | +12.9% | +18.6% | −5.0% | back-calculated | |
| 2 Feb 2012 | Above 200-day | +2.7% | −2.1% | +1.1% | +16.7% | −7.0% | back-calculated | |
| 4 Apr 2011 | Above 200-day | −5.1% | −3.1% | −18.0% | −9.7% | −24.0% | back-calculated | |
| 14 Jan 2011 | Below 200-day | −4.0% | +1.2% | −0.5% | −13.0% | −21.7% | back-calculated | |
| 12 Jul 2010 | 52-week high | +2.0% | +12.7% | +6.3% | +1.9% | −6.9% | back-calculated | |
| 21 May 2010 | Below 200-day | +7.3% | +12.9% | +21.4% | +8.3% | −2.4% | back-calculated | |
| 28 Jul 2009 | 52-week high | +2.8% | +4.8% | +12.1% | +23.9% | −3.1% | back-calculated | |
| 15 Apr 2009 | Above 200-day | +22.2% | +28.3% | +57.8% | +65.4% | −3.9% | back-calculated | |
| 11 Feb 2008 | Below 200-day | −2.0% | +2.6% | −12.8% | −48.6% | −51.6% | back-calculated | |
| 22 Jan 2008 | Down 20% | +4.6% | +0.5% | −16.4% | −48.1% | −52.2% | back-calculated | |
| 18 Jan 2008 | Down 10% | −10.4% | −16.8% | −27.9% | −55.1% | −59.9% | back-calculated | |
| 17 Aug 2007 | Down 10% | +10.3% | +43.1% | +26.7% | +3.6% | −10.7% | back-calculated | |
| 17 May 2007 | 52-week high | −0.4% | +5.1% | +35.7% | +20.1% | −2.3% | back-calculated | |
| 28 Feb 2007 | Down 10% | +1.4% | +15.5% | +18.9% | +44.2% | −4.8% | back-calculated | |
| 10 Nov 2006 | 52-week high | +0.3% | +5.2% | +11.3% | +57.1% | −6.4% | back-calculated | |
| 6 Jun 2006 | Below 200-day | +3.6% | +14.2% | +34.4% | +42.0% | −13.1% | back-calculated | |
| 1 Jun 2006 | Down 20% | −3.4% | +11.2% | +28.9% | +42.8% | −15.3% | back-calculated | |
| 19 May 2006 | Down 10% | −12.7% | +0.4% | +17.3% | +29.7% | −22.0% | back-calculated | |
| 3 Apr 2006 | 52-week high | +5.8% | −13.2% | +1.3% | +6.3% | −27.3% | back-calculated | |
| 20 Oct 2005 | Down 10% | +8.3% | +21.7% | +44.9% | +49.1% | −3.0% | back-calculated |
What the trend rules did here
₹1 lakh put into Nifty Total Market in April 2006 and held would be ₹8.6 lakh today after costs and tax. The better of the two simple rules, the 10-month average, would have left ₹7.5 lakh. Each rule holds Nifty Total Market while its signal is up and sits in a liquid fund otherwise, deciding at one day's close and trading at the next.
₹1 lakh from April 2006 to 26 Oct 2026, when all three rules had enough history. Costs: 0.10% of each trade and fund running costs. After tax: Indian capital-gains rules as they stood on each date, at the 30% slab, everything sold at the end. The ensemble trades a little every day, which no one would do in a taxable account, so it has no after-tax figure. The worst three years compare the rule's return a year with holding's over the same three years.
| Before tax | After tax | After tax, a year | Deepest fall | Worst three years against holding | When | More | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying and holding | ₹9.2 lakh | ₹8.6 lakh | 11.0% | −64%, Jan 2008 to Mar 2009 | – | – | |
| 10-month average | ₹8.2 lakh | ₹7.5 lakh | 10.3% | −34%, Jan 2008 to Mar 2008 | −19.0% points a year | Mar 2020 to Apr 2023 | |
| 200-day average | ₹7.0 lakh | ₹6.3 lakh | 9.4% | −33%, Jan 2008 to Mar 2008 | −17.6% points a year | Mar 2020 to Apr 2023 | |
| All 24 signals (the ensemble) | ₹8.0 lakh | not computed | – | −25%, Jan 2008 to Mar 2009 | −17.0% points a year | Mar 2020 to Apr 2023 |
Nifty Total Market: growth of 1 under each rule
Weekly, after costs, before tax. Log scale: equal slopes are equal returns.
How to read it. Buying and holding: 11.4% a year, worst fall -64%. The 10-month rule: 10.8%, worst fall -34%. The 200-day rule: 10.0%, worst fall -33%. Look first at the big falls, where the rule lines go flat, and then at the recoveries, where they lag.
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Each rule against buying and holding over the same dates, over the full history and, where it is three years or more, since NSE launched the index.
| Rule | Period | Rule, a year | Buy and hold | After tax, rule minus buy and hold | Rule's worst fall | Buy and hold's | Time invested | Switches a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-month average | Full, from Apr 2006 | 10.8% | 11.4% | −0.7 pts | −34% | −64% | 71% | 0.9 |
| 200-day average | Full, from Apr 2006 | 10.0% | 11.4% | −1.7 pts | −33% | −64% | 72% | 3.0 |
| All 24 signals (the ensemble) | Full, from Apr 2006 | 10.6% | 11.4% | – | −25% | −64% | 61% | 4.8 |
| 10-month average | Since launch, Oct 2021 | 4.3% | 8.1% | −3.9 pts | −20% | −19% | 76% | 1.1 |
| 200-day average | Since launch, Oct 2021 | 4.6% | 8.1% | −4.3 pts | −16% | −19% | 76% | 2.9 |
| All 24 signals (the ensemble) | Since launch, Oct 2021 | 5.1% | 8.1% | – | −14% | −19% | 62% | 5.4 |
Not a test. These two rules were pre-registered on seven markets, and on those none beat buying and holding by more than luck would explain (the evidence). Run on all 127 investable markets here, the 10-month rule kept more after tax than buying and holding on 35 and the 200-day rule on 29; both had a shallower worst fall on nearly all of them. With this many markets, some would look good by chance, so one market's result says little about the next decade.
About this market
Nifty Total Market, in broad market (broad and multi-cap). Source: NSE total-return index (NSE factsheet). History from Apr 2005. Its returns, calendar years, falls, valuation and holdings are on the index tab.
Back-calculated history. NSE launched this index in October 2021. Its history before that is a back-calculation: today's rules applied to the past. Rules chosen with that past in view tend to look better in it, so treat the pre-launch years, marked on each chart, with care.
Trend asks whether a market is rising; momentum asks whether it is rising faster than the others. Both look back from one month to a year: trend at six horizons (1, 2, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months), momentum at four (1, 3, 6 and 12). Every market is measured on its return above a liquid fund (the 91-day T-bill), so an index that only keeps pace with cash is not trending.
The trend score is the share of 24 signals that point up: four ways of asking whether a price is trending (above where it was, above its average, a short average above a long one, in the top half of its range), each at six horizons from one month to a year. 100 means all agree it is rising; 0 that all agree it is falling.
Uptrend and downtrend. Read once a week, a market enters an uptrend when its score reaches 70 (17 of 24 signals up) and stays in it until the score falls to 30 or below, when it enters a downtrend. "Uptrend since March 2026" means the score first reached 70 in March and has not fallen to 30 since. The gap between the two lines keeps a market from flipping every other week.
Describing is not forecasting. In my pre-registered tests no trend or momentum rule on indices beat buying and holding by more than luck would explain, and after tax every rule trailed on the large-cap indices. What the rules did reliably was cut the worst falls. What the tests found. Many indices are back-calculated by NSE before their launch; their pages say so and draw that history lighter.
The workings
The question
Data
Every chart has a table view, a CSV download and a link to its published JSON. Bundles are listed in data status.