Nifty India FPI 150: downtrend since September 2026
Nifty India FPI 150 has been in a downtrend since September 2026 (7 weeks). Its trend score is 0 out of 100, nearly all signals down. On momentum it is behind most, 89th of 133, and 16th of 19 in broad market.
Written for anyone holding or watching Nifty India FPI 150. Data to 14 Oct 2026.
Trend
Downtrend
since Sep 2026
Momentum
89th of 133
markets, by rank
Below its high
9.7%
total return
1 year
−4.7%
total return
Today
Of 2 earlier downtrends in Nifty India FPI 150 that lasted 7 weeks or more, 100% went on for at least another three months and 0% for six. Across broad market indices (since each launch): 43% and 15% of 188.
Trend
Downtrend since September 2026score 0 of 100; four weeks ago 13
Momentum rank
16th of 19in broad market; 89th of 133 markets overall
The 10-month rule
in cash since September 2026month-end price against its 10-month average
The 200-day rule
in cash since September 2026daily close against its 200-session average
The 24 trend signals on 14 Oct 2026: 0 up, 24 down. Each asks whether the market, measured against cash, is rising over that period.
Signal
1 month1m
2 months2m
3 months3m
6 months6m
9 months9m
12 months12m
Up
Past returnhigher than it was that long ago
Down
Down
Down
Down
Down
Down
0 of 6
Price against its averageabove its average over the period
Down
Down
Down
Down
Down
Down
0 of 6
Fast average against slowa quarter-length average above the full-length one
Down
Down
Down
Down
Down
Down
0 of 6
Place in its rangein the upper half of the period's high-low range
Down
Down
Down
Down
Down
Down
0 of 6
Up at this horizon
0 of 4
0 of 4
0 of 4
0 of 4
0 of 4
0 of 4
0 of 24
Momentum: the return over cash at each horizon, and its percentile among all 133 markets (100 is the strongest).
Over the last
1 month1M
3 months3M
6 months6M
12 months12M
Return over cash
−4.3%
−6.7%
−4.3%
−9.7%
Percentile
41
35
32
41
Trend over time
The trend score each week since 2023, and the trends it marks: an uptrend from the week the score reaches 70 until it falls to 30, and a downtrend the other way.
Nifty India FPI 150: trend score, week by week
Share of 24 trend signals pointing up, 0 to 100, weekly to 14 Oct 2026; the 13-week average in bold. Before Aug 2025 the index is NSE's back-calculation.
How to read it. The score moves fast because a third of its signals look back only one or two months. Long stretches near 100 or 0 are the strong trends; the lines at 70 and 30 are where a trend starts.
Up signals out of four at each horizon, weekly, last three years. Blue: all four up; red: all four down.
How to read it. Trends turn from the top row down: the one-month signals flip first and the twelve-month ones last. Red spreading down the rows is a downtrend taking hold; blue spreading down is a recovery being confirmed.
Against its peers
Nifty India FPI 150 ranks 16th of 19 in broad market on momentum; thirteen weeks ago it was 16th of 19. Momentum here is the return over cash at 1, 3, 6 and 12 months, each ranked, then averaged.
Nifty India FPI 150: place among broad market, week by week
Momentum rank within the family, last three years: 100 is first, 0 is last, of the 19 live members.
How to read it. A market that leads its family for months shows as a long stretch near the top; one that swings from top to bottom takes turns with its peers.
Nifty India FPI 150: place among broad market, week by week. Line chart, 20 Oct 2023 to 14 Oct 2026. Place in broad market: latest 17, range 0 to 100.
Nifty India FPI 150 has had 4 uptrends and 4 downtrends since 2023. A year after an uptrend began it had risen by a median +0.5% (3 cases); a year after a downtrend began, +8.5% (2). From any week, the usual year was +9.8%.
Median return of Nifty India FPI 150, total return, over the 3, 6 and 12 months after the week each trend began, and the share of cases that ended higher. The last row is the same measure from every week, the yardstick for the other two.
Median return of Nifty India FPI 150, total return, over the 3, 6 and 12 months after the week each trend began, and the share of cases that ended higher. The last row is the same measure from every week, the yardstick for the other two.
Starting point
3 months
Higher
6 months
Higher
12 months
Higher
Cases
More
After an uptrend began
+3.5%
67%
+5.8%
67%
+0.5%
67%
3
After a downtrend began
−0.1%
33%
+3.2%
100%
+8.5%
100%
2
From any week (the usual)
+3.3%
66%
+6.3%
72%
+9.8%
89%
157
A small sample. With only 3 uptrends and 2 downtrends that have a full year after them, one or two cases move the median a lot. These are descriptions of Nifty India FPI 150's past, not a tested signal. The trends overlap with each other's next twelve months, and a trend is only called after the market has already moved, so its "during" return includes the climb that called it. 4 of the 8 trends fall in NSE's back-calculated history before the index launched. Whether these patterns hold across markets is the subject of the tests on the evidence page.
Every uptrend and downtrend in Nifty India FPI 150, newest first. Returns are from the close of the week each began; a trend still going is measured to 14 Oct 2026.
Every uptrend and downtrend in Nifty India FPI 150, newest first. Returns are from the close of the week each began; a trend still going is measured to 14 Oct 2026.
Trend
Began
Ended
Lasted
Return during
Next 3 months
Next 6 months
Next 12 months
History
More
Downtrend
Sep 2026
still going
7 weeks
−5.5%
–
–
–
–
Uptrend
Jul 2026
Aug 2026
5 weeks
−0.3%
–
–
–
–
Downtrend
Jan 2026
Jul 2026
6 months
0.0%
−0.1%
+2.2%
–
–
Uptrend
Sep 2025
Jan 2026
4 months
+2.8%
+3.5%
−5.3%
−1.2%
–
Downtrend
Aug 2025
Sep 2025
6 weeks
+1.5%
+5.9%
+6.2%
+6.5%
back-calculated
Uptrend
May 2025
Jul 2025
3 months
−0.1%
−1.0%
+5.8%
+0.5%
back-calculated
Downtrend
Nov 2024
May 2025
6 months
−0.4%
−3.5%
+3.2%
+10.5%
back-calculated
Uptrend
Oct 2023
Nov 2024
13 months
+32.3%
+15.6%
+18.6%
+37.2%
back-calculated
After big moves
Nifty India FPI 150 has fallen below its 200-day average 4 times. A year later it was higher 100% of the time, with a median return of +10.6%; from any day, 88% and +9.7%. The deepest fall within that year had a median of −8.7%, against −5.6% from any day.
What Nifty India FPI 150 did after each kind of move since 2023: the median total return over the next 3, 6 and 12 months, how often it was higher a year later, and the median of the deepest fall within that year. A move counts once: a cross of the 200-day average after 20 sessions on the other side, a fall of 10% or 20% from a high (counted again only after a new high), a 52-week high after three months without one. The last row is every day, the yardstick.
What Nifty India FPI 150 did after each kind of move since 2023: the median total return over the next 3, 6 and 12 months, how often it was higher a year later, and the median of the deepest fall within that year. A move counts once: a cross of the 200-day average after 20 sessions on the other side, a fall of 10% or 20% from a high (counted again only after a new high), a 52-week high after three months without one. The last row is every day, the yardstick.
After it
Times
3 months
6 months
12 months
Higher a year later
Deepest fall within a year
More
Fell below its 200-day average
4
−3.1%
+4.4%
+10.6%
100%
−8.7%
Rose back above it
3
+0.2%
+5.9%
+1.1%
100%
−7.0%
Fell 10% from its high
3
+6.7%
+4.9%
+26.5%
100%
−5.7%
Fell 20% from its high
0
–
–
–
–
–
Made a new 52-week high
2
+8.6%
+8.8%
+31.1%
100%
+0.8%
Any day (the usual)
–
+3.2%
+6.2%
+9.7%
88%
−5.6%
Some of these are small samples. Where a move has happened fewer than ten times, one or two cases decide the median. These describe Nifty India FPI 150's own past; the moves overlap, and a fall or a cross is only visible after it has happened. Pooled across 106 investable markets since each launched, the returns after these moves did not differ from an ordinary day by more than luck would explain once all ten comparisons are counted. Two patterns came close: a year after a new 52-week high, returns were about 6 points above usual, and after a fall below the 200-day average the deepest fall in the next year was about 2 points worse. The full test is on the evidence page.
Every such move in Nifty India FPI 150, newest first. Blank where the period has not yet passed.
Every such move in Nifty India FPI 150, newest first. Blank where the period has not yet passed.
Date
Move
1 month
3 months
6 months
12 months
Deepest fall in the year
History
More
7 Sept 2026
Below 200-day
−7.0%
–
–
–
–
–
17 Jun 2026
Above 200-day
+1.0%
−2.6%
–
–
–
–
21 Apr 2026
Above 200-day
−1.8%
+0.2%
–
–
–
–
13 Mar 2026
Down 10%
+6.5%
+7.5%
+4.9%
–
–
–
1 Feb 2026
Below 200-day
+0.5%
+1.9%
+4.4%
–
–
–
16 Oct 2025
52-week high
+1.9%
+0.9%
−2.4%
–
–
–
12 May 2025
Above 200-day
+2.6%
+0.2%
+5.9%
+1.1%
−7.0%
back-calculated
20 Dec 2024
Below 200-day
−3.1%
−3.1%
+5.5%
+9.8%
−9.2%
back-calculated
13 Nov 2024
Down 10%
+5.9%
−3.4%
+4.2%
+11.5%
−8.2%
back-calculated
13 Nov 2024
Below 200-day
+5.9%
−3.4%
+4.2%
+11.5%
−8.2%
back-calculated
28 Nov 2023
52-week high
+9.9%
+16.4%
+20.0%
+31.1%
never below
back-calculated
24 Feb 2023
Down 10%
−3.2%
+6.7%
+14.7%
+41.4%
−3.2%
back-calculated
What the trend rules did here
₹1 lakh put into Nifty India FPI 150 in October 2023 and held would be ₹1.3 lakh today after costs and tax. The better of the two simple rules, the 200-day average, would have left ₹1.2 lakh. Each rule holds Nifty India FPI 150 while its signal is up and sits in a liquid fund otherwise, deciding at one day's close and trading at the next.
₹1 lakh from October 2023 to 14 Oct 2026, when all three rules had enough history. Costs: 0.10% of each trade and fund running costs. After tax: Indian capital-gains rules as they stood on each date, at the 30% slab, everything sold at the end. The ensemble trades a little every day, which no one would do in a taxable account, so it has no after-tax figure. The worst three years compare the rule's return a year with holding's over the same three years.
₹1 lakh from October 2023 to 14 Oct 2026, when all three rules had enough history. Costs: 0.10% of each trade and fund running costs. After tax: Indian capital-gains rules as they stood on each date, at the 30% slab, everything sold at the end. The ensemble trades a little every day, which no one would do in a taxable account, so it has no after-tax figure. The worst three years compare the rule's return a year with holding's over the same three years.
Before tax
After tax
After tax, a year
Deepest fall
Worst three years against holding
When
More
Buying and holding
₹1.3 lakh
₹1.3 lakh
7.9%
−18%, Sep 2024 to Feb 2025
–
–
10-month average
₹1.2 lakh
₹1.2 lakh
4.8%
−20%, Jan 2026 to Oct 2026
–
–
200-day average
₹1.2 lakh
₹1.2 lakh
5.7%
−17%, Sep 2024 to Sep 2026
–
–
All 24 signals (the ensemble)
₹1.2 lakh
not computed
–
−11%, Sep 2024 to Sep 2026
–
–
Nifty India FPI 150: growth of 1 under each rule
Weekly, after costs, before tax. Log scale: equal slopes are equal returns.
How to read it. Buying and holding: 9.0% a year, worst fall -18%. The 10-month rule: 5.0%, worst fall -20%. The 200-day rule: 6.0%, worst fall -17%. Look first at the big falls, where the rule lines go flat, and then at the recoveries, where they lag.
Buy and hold10-month rule200-day ruleAll 24 signals
Each rule against buying and holding over the same dates, over the full history and, where it is three years or more, since NSE launched the index.
Each rule against buying and holding over the same dates, over the full history and, where it is three years or more, since NSE launched the index.
Rule
Period
Rule, a year
Buy and hold
After tax, rule minus buy and hold
Rule's worst fall
Buy and hold's
Time invested
Switches a year
10-month average
Full, from Oct 2023
5.0%
9.0%
−3.1 pts
−20%
−18%
74%
0.8
200-day average
Full, from Oct 2023
6.0%
9.0%
−2.3 pts
−17%
−18%
74%
5.2
All 24 signals (the ensemble)
Full, from Oct 2023
7.3%
9.0%
–
−11%
−18%
62%
5.8
Not a test. These two rules were pre-registered on seven markets, and on those none beat buying and holding by more than luck would explain (the evidence). Run on all 121 investable markets here, the 10-month rule kept more after tax than buying and holding on 33 and the 200-day rule on 27; both had a shallower worst fall on nearly all of them. With this many markets, some would look good by chance, so one market's result says little about the next decade.
About this market
Nifty India FPI 150, in broad market (large). Source: NSE total-return index (NSE factsheet). History from Oct 2022. Its returns, calendar years, falls, valuation and holdings are on the index tab.
Back-calculated history. NSE launched this index in August 2025. Its history before that is a back-calculation: today's rules applied to the past. Rules chosen with that past in view tend to look better in it, so treat the pre-launch years, marked on each chart, with care.
Trend asks whether a market is rising; momentum asks whether it is rising faster than the others. Both look back over the same horizons: 1, 3, 6 and 12 months. Every market is measured on its return above a liquid fund (the 91-day T-bill), so an index that only keeps pace with cash is not trending.
The trend score is the share of 24 signals that point up: four ways of asking whether a price is trending (above where it was, above its average, a short average above a long one, in the top half of its range), each at six horizons from one month to a year. 100 means all agree it is rising; 0 that all agree it is falling.
Uptrend and downtrend. Read once a week, a market enters an uptrend when its score reaches 70 (17 of 24 signals up) and stays in it until the score falls to 30 or below, when it enters a downtrend. "Uptrend since March 2026" means the score first reached 70 in March and has not fallen to 30 since. The gap between the two lines keeps a market from flipping every other week.
Describing is not forecasting. In my pre-registered tests no trend or momentum rule on indices beat buying and holding by more than luck would explain, and after tax every rule trailed on the large-cap indices. What the rules did reliably was cut the worst falls. What the tests found. Many indices are back-calculated by NSE before their launch; their pages say so and draw that history lighter.