World
United States: the economy in numbers
The economy grew 2.7% in Q2 2026; inflation was 3.4% in Aug 2026; the policy rate is 3.88%. Every reading tipsheet tracks for the United States, with its history and what is usual for it. Readings the United States does not publish openly are listed, not dropped.
Written for investors following the United States from India.
Snapshot
The latest reading of each measure, the period it is for, the reading a year earlier and where today's sits in the economy's own history since 2000 (100 = the highest).
| Measure | Latest | Period | A year earlier | Percentile | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | +2.7% | Q2 2026 | +2.1 | 60 | BEA |
| Industrial production | +1.4% | Aug 2026 | +1.2 | 50 | OECD |
| Retail sales volume | +1.6% | Jul 2026 | +1.1 | 57 | OECD |
| Exports, US$ | +14.9% | Jun 2026 | +6.5 | 81 | IMF (derived) |
| Leading indicator | 101.0 | Aug 2026 | 99.6 | 84 | OECD |
| Unemployment rate | 4.2% | Sep 2026 | 4.4 | 28 | OECD |
| Consumer price inflation | 3.4% | Aug 2026 | 2.9 | 76 | BIS |
| Core inflation (ex food and energy) | 2.4% | Aug 2026 | 3.4 | 69 | OECD |
| Producer prices | +9.9% | Aug 2026 | +2.6 | 88 | FRED (PPIACO) |
| Inflation expectations | 2.6% | Sep 2026 | 2.8 | 77 | FRED (EXPINF1YR) |
| Policy rate | 3.88% | 28 Sep | 4.13 | 75 | BIS |
| 10-year government bond yield | 4.99% | Sep 2026 | 4.12 | 91 | OECD |
| Money supply growth | +5.7% | Aug 2026 | +4.3 | 45 | FRED (M2SL) |
| Private credit and credit gap | −11.3 pp | Q1 2026 | −12.6 | 25 | BIS |
| Real effective exchange rate | 106.7 | Aug 2026 | 107.9 | 83 | BIS |
| Stock market return | +15.1% | 5 Oct | +18.9 | 63 | index history (returns only) |
| Current account | US$ −945 bn | Q2 2026 | −1,341 | 13 | IMF (derived) |
| Trade balance | US$ −1,049 bn | Jun 2026 | −1,350 | 17 | IMF (derived) |
| FX reserves | +25.9% | Aug 2026 | +27.4 | 86 | IMF (derived) |
| Government debt, % of GDP | 117% | Q1 2026 | 114 | 96 | BIS |
| Budget balance, % of GDP | −7.3% | 2025 | −7.9 | 38 | OECD |
| House prices, real | −2.6% | Q2 2026 | −0.4 | 18 | BIS |
Growth and jobs
Output, factories, shops, exports, the leading indicator and unemployment.
Real GDP growth: +2.7% in Q2 2026, up from +2.1 a year earlier
Shaded: the usual range (middle half of readings) since 2005.
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Industrial production: +1.4% in Aug 2026, up from +1.2 a year earlier
% on a year earlier. Shaded: the usual range (middle half of readings) since 2005.
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Retail sales volume: +1.6% in Jul 2026, up from +1.1 a year earlier
% on a year earlier. Shaded: the usual range (middle half of readings) since 2005.
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Exports, US$: +14.9% in Jun 2026, up from +6.5 a year earlier
% on a year earlier. Shaded: the usual range (middle half of readings) since 2005.
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Leading indicator: 101.0 in Aug 2026, up from 99.6 a year earlier
Shaded: the usual range (middle half of readings) since 2005.
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Unemployment rate: 4.2% in Sep 2026, down from 4.4 a year earlier
Shaded: the usual range (middle half of readings) since 2005.
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Prices
Consumer prices, the core measure without food and energy, producer prices and expected inflation.
Consumer price inflation: 3.4% in Aug 2026, up from 2.9 a year earlier
Shaded: the usual range (middle half of readings) since 2005.
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Core inflation (ex food and energy): 2.4% in Aug 2026, down from 3.4 a year earlier
Shaded: the usual range (middle half of readings) since 2005.
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Producer prices: +9.9% in Aug 2026, up from +2.6 a year earlier
% on a year earlier. Shaded: the usual range (middle half of readings) since 2005.
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Inflation expectations: 2.6% in Sep 2026, down from 2.8 a year earlier
Shaded: the usual range (middle half of readings) since 2005.
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Interest rates and money
The central bank's rate, the government's borrowing cost, the central bank's balance sheet, money and credit.
Policy rate: 3.88% on 28 Sep, down from 4.13 a year earlier
Shaded: the usual range (middle half of readings) since 2005.
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10-year government bond yield: 4.99% in Sep 2026, up from 4.12 a year earlier
Shaded: the usual range (middle half of readings) since 2005.
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Money supply growth: +5.7% in Aug 2026, up from +4.3 a year earlier
% on a year earlier. Shaded: the usual range (middle half of readings) since 2005.
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Private credit and credit gap: −11.3 pp in Q1 2026, up from −12.6 a year earlier
Shaded: the usual range (middle half of readings) since 2005.
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The currency and the stock market
The currency's value in dollars over a year, its real trade-weighted value, and the stock market's one-year return.
Real effective exchange rate: 106.7 in Aug 2026, down from 107.9 a year earlier
Shaded: the usual range (middle half of readings) since 2005.
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Stock market return: +15.1% on 5 Oct, down from +18.9 a year earlier
Shaded: the usual range (middle half of readings) since 2005.
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Trade, reserves and the government
What the economy earns from the world, its reserves, its government's debt and deficit, and house prices.
Current account: US$ −945 bn in Q2 2026, up from −1,341 a year earlier
US$ billion, summed over the last 12 months (or 4 quarters). Shaded: the usual range (middle half of readings) since 2005.
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Trade balance: US$ −1,049 bn in Jun 2026, up from −1,350 a year earlier
US$ billion, summed over the last 12 months (or 4 quarters). Shaded: the usual range (middle half of readings) since 2005.
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FX reserves: +25.9% in Aug 2026, down from +27.4 a year earlier
% on a year earlier. Shaded: the usual range (middle half of readings) since 2005.
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Government debt, % of GDP: 117% in Q1 2026, up from 114 a year earlier
Shaded: the usual range (middle half of readings) since 2005.
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Budget balance, % of GDP: −7.3% on 2025, up from −7.9 a year earlier
Shaded: the usual range (middle half of readings) since 2005.
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House prices, real: −2.6% in Q2 2026, down from −0.4 a year earlier
Shaded: the usual range (middle half of readings) since 2005.
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The workings
The question
Data
Every chart has a table view, a CSV download and a link to its published JSON. Bundles are listed in data status.