World aggregates
Global macro v3 publishes world, advanced-economy and emerging-economy totals, and one India-specific total, built from the
economies the section covers. Code: pipeline/tipsheet/compute/global_aggregates.py. Plan: docs/plans/global_macro_v3.md, section 5.
What is built
| Aggregate | Reading | Weights | From |
|---|---|---|---|
| World, advanced, emerging growth | Real GDP, % on a year earlier, quarterly | GDP at purchasing-power parity | 2001 |
| India’s export markets | Real GDP growth of the economies India sells to | India’s goods exports to each (IMF IMTS) | 2001 |
| World, advanced, emerging inflation | CPI, % on a year earlier, monthly (weighted mean, and the median beside it) | GDP at PPP | 2001 |
| Advanced-economy core inflation | CPI excluding food and energy | GDP at PPP | 2001 |
| World policy rate and real policy rate | Policy rate at month end; minus the latest inflation | GDP at PPP | 2001 |
| The rate cycle | Share of world GDP whose central bank rate is above (below) its level a year earlier | GDP at PPP | 2002 |
There is no world core inflation: China, Brazil and Indonesia publish no open core series, and without them the economies reporting cover less than 80% of the weight.
Rules (fixed before computing)
- Weights are the previous calendar year’s. A reading for 2026 uses 2025 weights. If the previous year is not published yet, the
latest earlier year is used, and the year is stored beside each value (
weight_year). No weight depends on the period it weights. - Each economy counts once. The euro area stands for its members, so Germany, France and Italy are left out of every total.
- Coverage of at least 80%. A total is published for a period only when the economies reporting cover at least 80% of the group’s weight; otherwise it is blank. Coverage is published with each value.
- Groups follow the IMF’s World Economic Outlook classification. Advanced: US, euro area, Japan, UK, Canada, Australia, Korea, Taiwan, Switzerland, Singapore, Hong Kong, Israel. Emerging: the rest.
- Averages of rates need no chain-linking: each period’s total is the weighted mean of that period’s rates.
- The median is shown beside the inflation mean, because one economy with very high inflation (Turkey) can move a mean on its own.
Sources
- GDP at PPP: World Bank WDI
NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD(CC BY 4.0). - India’s exports by partner: IMF IMTS,
IND.XG_FOB_USD.<partner>.A; the euro area is the sum of its members. Used only as weights. - The readings themselves are the Monitor’s series (
reference/global_series.yaml).
Checks against published totals (2026-10-07)
- Growth against the OECD’s G20 total (QNA): mean absolute gap 0.23 pp a quarter since 2010, largest 1.05 pp (Q4 2020, the pandemic quarter, when weights matter most). Q2 2026: ours 3.22%, OECD G20 3.10%.
- Inflation against the OECD’s G20 total: ours runs about 0.4 pp lower (Aug 2026: 3.70% against 4.06%). The cause is coverage. The OECD’s G20 includes Argentina (33.7% in Aug 2026) and Russia, which this section leaves out because their official series are unreliable or interrupted. Adding Argentina back to the G20 members gives 3.85%, within 0.21 pp of the OECD; most of the rest is Russia.
- World growth of 3.2% and inflation of 3.7% are close to the IMF’s and OECD’s own recent world estimates.