Tools
Size rotation (first version, with the Nifty 50)
If the Nifty 500's 12-month return beats cash, hold whichever of the Nifty 50, Midcap 150 and Smallcap 250 did best over 12 months; otherwise hold the 5-year G-sec. It holds G-secs since Mar 2026. From May 2006 it returned 8.7% a year after tax, against 11.7% for its benchmark; its worst fall was −49%.
What it holds now
Target since Mar 2026: G-secs.
The numbers behind the decision in force, taken 30 Sept 2026.
| 12-month return | |
|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | −7.1% |
| Nifty Midcap 150 | 4.6% |
| Nifty Smallcap 250 | 7.2% |
| Nifty 500 | −2.0% |
| Cash (91-day T-bill, as a liquid fund) | 5.4% |
Its record
Growth of one rupee after costs, before tax, on a log scale, beside its benchmark: equal parts Nifty 50, Midcap 150 and Smallcap 250, rebalanced each January. The benchmark holds the assets the rule chooses from but never switches, so the gap is what the rule's timing added or cost. The marks show when the rule was published and when it entered this library; only the stretch after the second mark is free of hindsight. Deciding on a different day of the month would have changed its return before tax from 6.4% to 10.8% a year.
Size rotation (first version, with the Nifty 50): growth of one rupee
How to read it. Log scale, so equal slopes are equal returns.
Loading chart…
Size rotation (first version, with the Nifty 50): fall from its previous peak
How to read it. How far each was below its own previous high, weekly. The model's worst fall was −49%, against −70% for its benchmark, on daily closes; the weekly line can look a little shallower.
Loading chart…
May 2006 to Oct 2026. Percentages except the Sharpe ratio, turnover and tax cost. Deflated Sharpe ratio against the benchmark: 0.00 (0.95 is the usual bar), counting every rule tried.
| This model | Benchmark | |
|---|---|---|
| Return a year, before tax | 9.7 | 12.2 |
| Return a year, after tax | 8.7 | 11.7 |
| Volatility | 17.9 | 24.2 |
| Worst fall | −49.1 | −69.6 |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.3 | – |
| Average share in equity | 62.6 | – |
| Turnover a year | 2.9 | – |
| Tax cost, points a year | 1.0 | – |
The live log starts on the entry date.
| Period | Dates | Total return | A year | More |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before the rule was published | May 2006 to Dec 2012 | 52.4% | 6.5% | |
| Published, before it entered this library | Dec 2012 to Oct 2026 | 335.0% | 11.3% | |
| Since it entered this library (live) | – | – | – |
What it held
The share of the model in each asset at every month-end.
Size rotation (first version, with the Nifty 50): holdings at each month-end
Loading chart…
The rule
If the Nifty 500's 12-month return beats cash, hold whichever of the Nifty 50, Midcap 150 and Smallcap 250 did best over 12 months; otherwise hold the 5-year G-sec.
Antonacci's dual momentum applied to size segments. Midcap 150 and Smallcap 250 are back-calculated before their launch on 2016-04-01. Rule published 2012; entered this library 8 Oct 2026.
The workings
Data
Every chart has a table view, a CSV download and a link to its published JSON. Bundles are listed in data status.