Triveni's management missed both the sugar crush and the power transmission Q4 outlook
November 2025 guidance for higher sugar production and a 'fantastic' Q4 in power transmission gave way to an 8.8% crush decline and order deferrals.
What's new
- Sugar crush fell 8.8% to 8.25 million tonnes despite November guidance for a significant increase.
- Power Transmission order book rose 25% to Rs 500 crore, but Q4 saw deferrals.
- Distillery delivered record net revenue of Rs 1,550 crore on lower maize costs.
- ICRA reaffirmed AA+ stable rating, highest in company history.
Themes from the call
Guidance Credibility
Management missed its own guidance on two core business drivers within seven months.
Sugar
Crush declined due to jaggery diversion, but efficiency gains kept net production nearly flat.
Distillery
Record revenue of Rs 1,550 crore driven by lower input costs and higher volumes.
Power Transmission
Order book grew 25% to Rs 500 crore, but Q4 execution was delayed.
Guidance watch
- FY27 sugar crush outlook improved with better planting and lower pest issues.
- Power Transmission capex of Rs 340 crore approved for Rs 700 crore output target, complete by Sep 2026.
- Distillery management expects a price review in October tender, noting no significant increase in two years.
Risk flags
- Two significant guidance misses in one year raise questions about forecast reliability.
- Jaggery/khandsari diversion remains a structural sugar policy risk.
- Power Transmission Q4 delays from geopolitics could extend.
- Consolidated debt rose to Rs 2,148 crore from Rs 1,969 crore.
Key quotes
-
"I would like to just share that it will be a very handsome amount in terms of overall sugar production..."
— Tarun Sawhney, Nov 2025 call -
"The sugarcane crush for the 2025-26 season ended at 8.25 million tonnes, which was lower by 8.8%. This was a surprise to the management team..."
— Tarun Sawhney, Jun 2026 call -
"I anticipate that Q3 is going to be pretty good and Q4 is going to be absolutely fantastic."
— Tarun Sawhney, Nov 2025 call -
"Our power transmission business experienced a challenging quarter due to order finalization issues..."
— Tarun Sawhney, Jun 2026 call
The brief
Triveni Engineering's earnings call contained two major guidance misses. In November 2025, CEO Tarun Sawhney told the street to expect a 'significant increase' in sugar crush and a 'very handsome' production figure. Seven months later, crush was down 8.8% and production was flat. The cause was aggressive jaggery diversion, which Sawhney called a surprise. This wasn't a small miss. It was a full reversal of the core operational forecast.
The power transmission business saw a similar pattern. November brought a prediction of an 'absolutely fantastic' Q4. June brought a 'challenging quarter' with order deferrals. The segment's order book did grow 25% to Rs 500 crore, and a landmark defense order was won, but the near-term execution promise was not met.
The distillery business was the bright spot, delivering record revenue of Rs 1,550 crore on lower maize costs. The sugar business defended margins through efficiency gains. The demerger is on track.
The open question is how much weight to give FY27 guidance. Management is now forecasting improved sugar crush and a Rs 340 crore Power Transmission capex. The track record on projections makes the next twelve months harder to model.
Triveni's operations are fine. Its guidance needs a credibility discount after two misses in seven months.