HOEC reverses HPCL crude sale strategy, pledges three-year production ramp
Management cancelled the ₹260 crore HPCL sale it earlier vowed to recover, while targeting 10-11 kbd by June 2027 and 32 kbd by 2029 via 20 wells and infrastructure builds.
What's new
- FY26 revenue ₹288 crore, down 15% YoY due to HPCL crude sale reversal.
- Production target: 10-11 kbd by June 2027, 22 kbd by 2028, 32 kbd by 2029.
- B80 offshore field: 26 MMBOE 2P reserves, only 1 MMBOE produced so far.
- Lifting cost flat at $28.4/barrel despite global cost inflation.
Themes from the call
Demand
India's acute gas shortage and Brent near $109/barrel create tailwinds for incremental production, but infrastructure bottlenecks affect all Assam operators.
Margins
Lifting cost held at $28.4/barrel (from $28.6) despite elevated rig and diesel costs, reflecting cost control.
Capital allocation
Planned 20 drilling campaigns and infrastructure expansion require funding, but ₹260 crore HPCL proceeds are blocked, and no explicit funding gap is addressed.
Guidance watch
- Three-year production ramp: 10-11 kbd by June 2027 (from ~1.5 kbd), 22 kbd in 2028, 32 kbd in 2029.
- Dirok evacuation bottleneck to be resolved in one to two months via DNPL line reconnection.
- B80 offshore workovers to restart post-monsoon FY27, targeting 4-5 kbd plus 7.5-10 MMscuf gas by June 2027.
Risk flags
- HPCL dispute resolution: cancelling sale and reselling to third parties may resolve cash flow but raises questions about earlier stance.
- Dirok pipeline delay: connection now expected in one to two months vs. prior end-March 2026 timeline.
- Elevated rig and diesel costs could constrain capex for planned drilling.
- Funding for 20-well program not explicitly secured; cash flow tied up in HPCL issue.
Key quotes
-
"Next three years transformational for HOEC with production targets of 10-11kbd by June 2027, growing to 22kbd in 2028 and 32kbd in 2029, underpinned by active drilling pipeline of 20 wells."
— Vivek Mishra, Managing Director -
"We have reversed the invoice, we have cancelled the sale to HPCL, mutually agreed between two parties and we have resold our crude to third-party buyers."
— HOEC management, Jun 2026 call
The brief
Hind Oil Exploration's Jun 2026 call was a tale of two stories. On one hand, management reversed course on the HPCL crude dispute: after claiming in February that there was 'no basis' for claims and they were pursuing all avenues to recover ₹260 crore, they now cancelled the sale and resold the crude to third parties. On the other, the new C-suite laid out an audacious three-year production ramp from current 1.5 kbd to 32 kbd by 2029, backed by 20 planned wells and infrastructure expansion. The numbers are striking: FY26 revenue fell 15% to ₹288 crore, partly due to the HPCL reversal, but lifting costs held at $28.4/barrel. The flagship B80 offshore field has 26 MMBOE in 2P reserves yet only 1 MMBOE produced, offering a rare development opportunity. However, execution risks abound. The Dirok pipeline connection — key to unlocking gas production — is delayed by at least one month from the prior March deadline. Elevated rig costs and the blocked HPCL proceeds create funding uncertainty. The production targets are contingent on multiple variables: rig availability, funding closure, and weather. The inconsistency on HPCL — from aggressive recovery to quiet cancellation — raises questions about management's willingness to adapt versus flip-flop. The strategic vision is ambitious, but the operating reality is constrained. The transformation plan faces credibility and execution tests.
HOEC's ambition is real; its credibility on execution has taken a hit with the HPCL pivot and pipeline delay.