GIPCL's Khavda solar expansion is running over two years behind the 2021 schedule
The 600 MW phase was commissioned in December 2025, not November 2023 as planned. The remaining 500 MW now awaits PGCIL evacuation lines, with first 200 MW expected by Q3 FY27.
What's new
- Khavda 600 MW commissioned December 2025, now stable at 33.24% CUF after teething issues resolved.
- Remaining 500 MW solar expansion awaits PGCIL evacuation; first 200 MW targeted Q3 FY27 post-monsoon.
- FY27 consolidated EBITDA guided at ₹940-950 crore, with Khavda 600 MW contributing ₹420 crore revenue and ₹350-360 crore EBITDA.
- 750 MW lignite thermal expansion received in-principle GUVNL approval; commissioning planned 2031-2033.
Themes from the call
Capacity expansion
Khavda solar complex is the growth engine, but the 500 MW second phase is contingent on PGCIL grid readiness, adding execution risk.
Financing and debt profile
Peak debt expected to reach ₹4,500 crore post-500 MW commissioning and ₹6,000-6,500 crore including thermal capex, with back-loaded repayment.
Regulatory advantage
Thermal expansion under Section 62 cost-plus model insulates from commodity risk; lignite feedstock secured for 25 years.
Guidance watch
- FY27 consolidated EBITDA: ₹940-950 crore, with Khavda 600 MW full-year and 500 MW partial contribution.
- Khavda 600 MW revenue ₹420 crore (5-10% variance), EBITDA ₹350-360 crore.
- 500 MW second phase: first 200 MW commissioning Q3 FY27 post-monsoon.
- Peak debt: ₹4,500 crore (ex-thermal) and ₹6,000-6,500 crore (inclusive).
- 750 MW thermal capex ₹6,000-7,000 crore phased from 2027-28; units commissioned 2031, 2032, 2033.
Risk flags
- Khavda 500 MW delay is structural; further slippage possible if PGCIL evacuation is not completed post-monsoon.
- Debt pile-up of ₹4,500-6,500 crore with back-loaded repayment means elevated interest cost and depreciation through FY27-FY28.
- Gas stranded assets (310 MW) written off; BESS pivot unproven at scale with revenue model still under GUVNL finalization.
Key quotes
-
"We are targeting our capacity additions, i.e. in the phase I - 600 MW, by November 2023 and phase II - 600 MW, by February 2024 and phase III by May 2025."
— GIPCL management, Nov 2021 call -
"Regarding the remaining 500 megawatts, we are at a very advanced stage of commissioning in a phased manner. We are waiting for the power evacuation facility to be readied by PGCIL."
— GIPCL management, Jul 2026 call
The brief
GIPCL's Khavda solar complex was supposed to be fully built by May 2025. Instead, only 600 MW of the planned 1,100 MW is operating, and that arrived in December 2025 — more than two years after the first promised date. The remaining 500 MW now hinges on PGCIL's evacuation lines, which management expects 'post-monsoon'. No explanation was offered for the timetable collapse.
The operational part is fine: the 600 MW plant is running at 33% capacity factor and is guided to generate ₹350-360 crore EBITDA in FY27. Thermal stations SLPP-1 and SLPP-2 are humming at 75-80% PLF, well above merit order. The company's FY27 consolidated EBITDA guidance of ₹940-950 crore implies a sharp step-up from FY26's ₹332 crore solar EBITDA, thanks to a full year of Khavda 600 MW and partial contribution from the new 500 MW.
But the growth narrative comes with a heavy debt overhang. Peak borrowings are headed to ₹4,500 crore after the 500 MW commissioning, and could top ₹6,500 crore if the 750 MW lignite project proceeds. The repayment schedule is back-loaded, meaning interest and depreciation will depress reported earnings for at least two more years. Management refused to give a granular debt repayment schedule — a small but telling gap.
The delay is the biggest open question. GIPCL's original 2021 timeline was aggressive, and the slippage suggests either poor project planning or dependency risks that remain unaddressed. Until the 500 MW is actually connected and generating cash, the full 1,100 MW Khavda story remains half-built. The thermal expansion is a decade away. The BESS pivot is early-stage. For now, the company is executing on a delayed plan with a rising debt tab and a credibility gap on timetables.
GIPCL's underlying assets are solid, but a two-year delay on Khavda plus a debt ramp means the next couple of years are about execution, not narrative.