Concall Note / Power / ADANIGREEN

Adani Green Energy misses its curtailment resolution timeline

Management had said prior-year EBITDA losses would not recur. Three months later, curtailment still impacts EBITDA by 5-7%, with relief now pushed to end of calendar year.

ADANIGREEN ISIN INE364U01010 22 Jul 2026 Analysis source: Tijori Concall Monitor

Management consistency flag

In April 2026, management said prior-year EBITDA losses of ₹1,300-1,500 cr from curtailment were not expected to recur. In July 2026, curtailment still impacts EBITDA by 5-7% and resolution is pushed to end of calendar year. The earlier expectation was not met.

What's new

AGEL crossed 20 GW of installed renewable capacity, India's largest greenfield addition.
Q1 power-supply revenue ₹4,280 cr, up 29% YoY; EBITDA ₹4,122 cr, up 33%, margin 94%.
Battery storage reached 3.5 GWh installed; separate reporting planned for tracking.
~4 GW of former merchant capacity moved to arm's-length C&I contracts with AESL, removing market-fluctuation risk.

Themes from the call

De-risking

Merchant capacity shifted to long-term fixed-price C&I contracts with AESL, removing spot-price exposure and aligning returns with hurdle IRR of 15-16%.

Curtailment

EBITDA continues to face 5-7% impact from grid constraints at Khavda; resolution expected by end of calendar year after 7 GW of evacuation capacity comes online.

Storage

Battery storage commissioned 3.5 GWh; management expects EBITDA contribution of ₹25-30 lakhs per MWh over the next nine months.

Guidance watch

FY27 greenfield renewable capacity addition target: 5 GW (excluding BESS and pumped storage).
BESS target: 10+ GWh by FY27, ~50 GWh by FY30.
FY27-end operational EBITDA run-rate expected to reach ~₹21,000 cr from current ~₹17,000 cr.
FY27 CapEx guidance: ~₹42,000 cr.

Risk flags

Khavda curtailment remains unquantified in absolute terms; resolution timeline pushed to end of calendar year.
BESS contribution requires successful capitalization and stabilization; quarterly phasing not provided.
Pumped hydro projects (ex-Chitravathi) remain about two years away with no offtake decisions.

Key quotes

"We have taken off the risk of merchant capacities and the risk of market fluctuations."
— Ashish Khanna, management
"Curtailment has an impact in the range of 5-7% on our EBITDA as we speak. Gradually, as and when more transmission lines come up, we do foresee these tendencies of curtailment phasing out."
— Management, July 2026 call

The brief

Adani Green Energy crossed 20 GW of installed renewable capacity this quarter, a milestone the company described as the fastest greenfield build in India. The numbers support the story: power-supply revenue rose 29% to ₹4,280 cr, EBITDA hit a 94% margin, and energy sales grew 30% to 13.7 billion units. But the one number that did not change is curtailment. Three months ago management told investors that prior-year EBITDA losses from grid constraints at Khavda — an estimated ₹1,300-1,500 cr — would not recur. This quarter curtailment still shaved 5-7% off EBITDA, and relief was pushed to the end of the calendar year. The inconsistency is not a blowup. The business is executing well. The 4 GW of former merchant capacity moved to long-term C&I contracts with AESL removes a major risk, and the battery storage rollout is visible: 3.5 GWh now installed, with separate reporting to follow. But the curtailment miss means management's timeline guidance is not yet reliable. The stock is pricing in a smooth transmission buildout. Any further delay would stress the narrative.

The take

Adani Green is executing on the ground but missing on its own timeline. The curtailment flip makes its guidance a lagging, not leading, indicator.

Source Tijori Concall Monitor analysis This brief is derived from Tijori's call-monitor analysis, not the exchange transcript source of record. Verify material claims against the company's call materials where available.