Manaksia Coated Metals: strong Q1, but Phase 2 delay clouds FY28 target
Record EBITDA/ton and clean quarter, but management pushed cold rolling mill and second Aluzinc line beyond FY28, risking revenue guidance.
The numbers
- Standalone net profit flat at ₹14.16 cr vs ₹14.10 cr a year ago; revenue up 5% to ₹262.14 cr.
- Consolidated Q1 EBITDA per ton hit a record ₹10,400, its highest ever.
- Order book of ₹450 cr provides 4.5-5 months visibility, 80% from repeat export customers.
- Phase 1 capex of ₹350 cr is nearly complete; CCL2 commissioning due in Q2.
- Trailing P/E stands at 27.2x, ROE 6.8%, debt/equity 0.64.
Management's story
- FY27 revenue guided at ₹1,300-1,350 cr on ~160,000 tons, implying 45-50% growth.
- FY28 revenue target remains ₹1,700-1,750 cr on 180,000-200,000 tons, banking on Phase 1 utilization.
- FY27 consolidated EBITDA margin target of 11-12%, though management refused to confirm 12% when pressed.
- Phase 2 capex (cold rolling mill + second Aluzinc line) delayed: starts in FY28, completion post-FY28, reversing the May 2026 commitment of within-FY28.
- Working capital at 75 days; compression expected only after CRM is operational in Phase 2.
“We do want to do this within FY '28. That is our -- that is the blueprint that we have decided upon.”
— Manaksia management, May 2026 call
Where they diverge
Q1 EBITDA per ton hit a record ₹10,400 and the order book is strong, but the Phase 2 delay—pushed from within-FY28 to post-FY28—undercuts the FY28 revenue guidance of ₹1,700-1,750 cr. Without the cold rolling mill's working capital savings or the second Aluzinc line's capacity, the FY28 target looks stretched. Margin guidance (11-12%) also sits above Q1's 10.4% and may slip during CCL2 ramp-up. The operational execution is credible, but the capacity timeline now lags the growth narrative.
The full read
Manaksia Coated Metals delivered a record operational quarter, but the delayed Phase 2 capex undermines the growth narrative. Q1 standalone net profit was flat at ₹14.16 cr on revenue of ₹262 cr, up 5%. On the call, management flagged two notable positives: record EBITDA per ton of ₹10,400 and a ₹450 cr order book. But the centerpiece of the concall was a timeline shift. The cold rolling mill and second Aluzinc line, originally committed to be completed within FY28, will now start in FY28 and finish after it. Management gave no reason for the delay. The FY28 revenue target of ₹1,700-1,750 cr presupposes full Phase 1 utilization, but without the CRM's working capital benefits or the second line's capacity, that number looks ambitious. Margin guidance of 11-12% for FY27 sits above Q1's 10.4% and could face pressure from CCL2 ramp-up costs. Manaksia's pricing discipline deserves credit, but the company is asking investors to underwrite a growth plan that just lost its next catalyst. The market's verdict will hinge on whether Phase 1 assets deliver enough volume to hit the nearer-term FY27 guidance.
What we're watching
- CCL2 commissioning in Q2 FY27: on-time start-up and ramp-up costs will test the margin guidance.
- H2 FY27 margin trajectory: management must sustain pricing discipline to reach 11-12% without cost pass-through guarantee.
- Phase 2 financing update: the ₹2,500 cr capex and debt-equity mix remain undefined; any clarity on funding or revised timeline will be key.
- Snack subsidiary JPA Snacks: minimal in Q1; look for any contribution in Q2 or H2 filings to justify the acquisition.