CMR Green's volume math doesn't add up, casting doubt on the growth story
A critical discrepancy in reported FY26 volume makes every per-ton metric from the earnings call suspect.
The numbers
- FY26 revenue reached ₹8,646 cr, a 30% YoY increase confirmed by audited results.
- Q4 net profit was ₹67 cr, matching prior estimates.
- Consolidated FY26 PAT totaled ₹228 cr.
- EBITDA for the full year rose 50% to ₹449 cr.
- The company plans ₹200 cr in capex for FY27.
Management's story
- Management guided for 25% volume growth in FY27, similar to the 24% growth in FY26.
- Capacity is expected to reach 7 lakh MT by the end of FY27.
- EBITDA per ton is projected to improve from the ₹11,000-11,400 base.
- The company declined to provide specific FY27 EBITDA per ton or margin guidance.
“FY26 total volume increased by 24% to 80,381 metric tons”
— Director of Business Development, Jul 2026 call
Where they diverge
The company's own call contains two irreconcilable volume figures. The Director of Business Development stated FY26 volume was 80,381 MT. The CFO's per-ton PAT of ₹5,580 applied to the ₹228 cr PAT implies volume exceeding 408,000 MT. Management offered no explanation. This fivefold gap makes every per-ton metric in the call unreliable and turns the 24% reported volume growth into either 24% growth or a 6% decline, depending on which number is used.
The full read
CMR Green's audited FY26 numbers are now on the record, and they confirm the ₹8,646 cr revenue and ₹228 cr PAT investors already knew. The real problem is inside the earnings call's own arithmetic. The Director of Business Development said FY26 volume was 80,381 MT. The CFO then applied a per-ton PAT of ₹5,580 to the ₹228 cr PAT, which implies volume of over 408,000 MT. These two numbers cannot both be correct, and management did not explain the contradiction. This discrepancy invalidates the call's per-ton metrics and makes the reported 24% volume growth unverifiable. It is a modeling crisis. Underneath the confusion, the company plans to add capacity and guide for 25% more volume in FY27. But without a reconciled volume base, that guidance is meaningless. The immediate test is for management to fix its own math.
What we're watching
- A clean explanation from CMR Green resolving the 80,381 MT versus >408,000 MT volume discrepancy.
- The startup of the Bawal and Shoolagiri subsidiary plants in FY27.
- Progress on the 25% FY27 volume growth guidance.