Aegis margins hold, but Kochi project downgrade clouds $5B capex story
LPG margins of ₹7,000/mt are locked through FY28, but the Kochi expansion slid from 'underway' to 'evaluating' with no explanation.
The numbers
- Q4 revenue hit ₹2,594 cr, up 52% YoY; full-year PAT crossed ₹1,000 cr for the first time.
- LPG distribution margins more than doubled to ₹7,000 per metric ton in Q4.
- Cash and investments stand at ₹5,939 cr, up from ₹150 cr in FY22.
- Hindustan Zinc signed a 15-year take-or-pay contract for the Pipavav ammonia terminal.
Management's story
- Distribution margins of ₹7,000/mt are sustainable through FY28 as volumes target 2 million MT.
- $5B capex pipeline through 2030 includes a MoU with L&T and a potential ₹20,000 cr investment at Vadhavan port.
- Itochu acquired a 10% stake in the Pipavav terminal with plans to go to 25%.
- Ammonia year 1 utilization target is 25%, growing 30-40% annually thereafter.
“I'm pleased to announce that this development is now underway.”
— Raj Chandaria, CMD, Jan 2026 call on Kochi expansion
Where they diverge
Management pitches a $5B expansion pipeline and promises margin durability, yet the Kochi 60,000 cubic meter liquid expansion slipped from 'now underway' in January to 'under evaluation' in June—no reason given. That gap between confidence and clarity matters. If a flagship project can quietly revert to planning, other parts of the capex bet deserve scepticism.
The full read
Aegis Logistics delivered a record quarter, with LPG distribution margins more than doubling to ₹7,000/mt and full-year PAT crossing ₹1,000 cr. Management says that margin is sustainable through FY28 and laid out a $5B capex pipeline, anchored by an ammonia terminal at Pipavav with a 15-year take-or-pay from Hindustan Zinc and Itochu taking a 10% stake. But the call also revealed a worrying backslide: the 60,000 cubic meter Kochi expansion, flagged as 'now underway' in January, is now merely 'under evaluation' with no explanation. That reversal undercuts confidence in the broader capex story. Investors got margin reassurance and a growth narrative, but the Kochi downgrade is a small crack that demands watching. The business is on a tear, but not every project deserves equal trust.
What we're watching
- Kochi expansion: any update on clearances or timeline by the next call (Q2 FY27).
- Ammonia utilization: whether Pipavav hits 25% in year 1 (target by mid-FY27).
- Margin trajectory: whether LPG distribution margin holds above ₹7,000/mt in H1 FY27.
- Capex conversion: which projects move from MoU to board-approved in next 12 months.