Alpex Solar reverses course, will build ingot plant after all
Management scrapped a backward-integration plan only to announce a 5 GW ingot and wafer facility by FY30, with a pilot coming in April 2027.
What's new
- Alpex will build a 5 GW ingot and wafer plant by FY30, starting with a 200 MW pilot in April 2027.
- Full-scale cell production at Kosi is delayed to August 2026, three months later than the prior guide.
- EBITDA margin guidance for the cell business was cut to 25% from 29-30%.
Why this matters
Alpex is spending capital it had previously decided not to spend, while pushing back its near-term production milestone and trimming its margin outlook. The combination of heavier capex, delayed revenue, and lower margins is a triple negative on near-term returns. The ₹10,000 cr revenue target now hinges on a project management execution the company has yet to demonstrate at scale.
What we're watching
- The April 2027 pilot commissioning date for the ingot facility.
- August 2026 Kosi cell production start and actual utilization ramp.
- How Iran-war supply chain disruptions and freight costs affect H1 earnings.
The full read
Alpex Solar doubled down on a strategy it had explicitly set aside. Management will now build a 5 GW ingot and wafer facility by FY30, starting with a 200 MW pilot in April 2027. This is the same company that had previously concluded backward integration wasn't the right move. The timing is also awkward. Full-scale cell production at Kosi slips to August 2026, three months late, and EBITDA margin guidance for that business drops to 25% from 29-30%. So Alpex is spending more capex, later, for less margin. The FY30 target of ₹10,000 cr revenue is against an FY26 base of ₹2,223 cr, up 2.85x year-on-year. Management blamed the Iran war for tripling freight costs and disrupting glass supply, but said things were normalising. The open question is whether a company that just delayed its simplest production milestone can deliver the most complex one.
Questions answered
- Why is Alpex building an ingot and wafer plant after previously ruling out backward integration?
- The filing does not give a specific reason for the reversal. It states management announced the 5 GW facility by FY30 during the May 2026 call, a pivot from its earlier position.
- How much did revenue grow in FY26, and where is the FY30 target?
- FY26 revenue was ₹2,223 cr, up 2.85 times year-on-year. Management reiterated a target of ₹10,000 cr by FY30.
- What changed on the cell production timeline?
- Full-scale cell production at the Kosi facility has been pushed to August 2026, three months later than the company had previously guided.
- Why was the EBITDA margin outlook for cells reduced?
- Management revised its conservative EBITDA margin estimate for the cell business down to 25%, from an earlier forecast of 29-30%. The filing does not specify the driver of the downgrade.
- What external pressures did management highlight?
- The Iran war disrupted glass availability and caused freight costs to triple. Management said conditions were normalising, but the impact has already hit operations.