{"schema":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T19:35:19Z","name":"Valuation glide (yield gap): holdings at each month-end","resolution":"month-end","meta":{"spec":"docs/research/models_v1_spec.md","disclaimer":"Rules registered in advance and tracked in public. Not investment advice: a model's holdings describe what its rule says, not what anyone should buy. Backtests before a model's entry date are not evidence of future results.","as_of":"2026-10-06","n_trials":191,"signal_freshness":{"cape":"2026-08-31","yield_gap":"2026-10-08","pe_n500":"2026-10-08"},"notes":["Returns after costs. After-tax figures: resident individual in the 30% slab, Indian capital-gains rules by date, everything sold at the end.","Foreign legs: S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 price indices in rupees, held through LRS (0.60% each way, 0.10% a year), one session behind the NSE close.","dsr_* is the deflated Sharpe ratio over all counted trials; 0.95 is the usual bar."],"source":"tipsheet models, computed from NSE total-return indices, domestic gold (World Gold Council), the NSE 5-year G-sec index, the 91-day T-bill, and for foreign legs the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 in rupees (ECB rates).","assets":{"w_gsec5":"G-sec 5-year (NSE benchmark index)","w_n500":"Nifty 500"}},"dates":["2005-04-29","2005-05-31","2005-06-30","2005-07-29","2005-08-31","2005-09-30","2005-10-31","2005-11-30","2005-12-30","2006-01-31","2006-02-28","2006-03-31","2006-04-29","2006-05-31","2006-06-30","2006-07-31","2006-08-31","2006-09-29","2006-10-31","2006-11-30","2006-12-29","2007-01-31","2007-02-28","2007-03-30","2007-04-30","2007-05-31","2007-06-29","2007-07-31","2007-08-31","2007-09-28","2007-10-31","2007-11-30","2007-12-31","2008-01-31","2008-02-29","2008-03-31","2008-04-30","2008-05-30","2008-06-30","2008-07-31","2008-08-29","2008-09-30","2008-10-31","2008-11-28","2008-12-31","2009-01-30","2009-02-27","2009-03-31","2009-04-29","2009-05-29","2009-06-30","2009-07-31","2009-08-31","2009-09-30","2009-10-30","2009-11-30","2009-12-31","2010-01-29","2010-02-26","2010-03-31","2010-04-30","2010-05-31","2010-06-30","2010-07-30","2010-08-31","2010-09-30","2010-10-29","2010-11-30","2010-12-31","2011-01-31","2011-02-28","2011-03-31","2011-04-29","2011-05-31","2011-06-30","2011-07-29","2011-08-30","2011-09-30","2011-10-31","2011-11-30","2011-12-30","2012-01-31","2012-02-29","2012-03-30","2012-04-30","2012-05-31","2012-06-29","2012-07-31","2012-08-31","2012-09-28","2012-10-31","2012-11-30","2012-12-31","2013-01-31","2013-02-28","2013-03-28","2013-04-30","2013-05-31","2013-06-28","2013-07-31","2013-08-30","2013-09-30","2013-10-31","2013-11-29","2013-12-31","2014-01-31","2014-02-28","2014-03-31","2014-04-30","2014-05-30","2014-06-30","2014-07-31","2014-08-28","2014-09-30","2014-10-31","2014-11-28","2014-12-31","2015-01-30","2015-02-28","2015-03-31","2015-04-30","2015-05-29","2015-06-30","2015-07-31","2015-08-31","2015-09-30","2015-10-30","2015-11-30","2015-12-31","2016-01-29","2016-02-29","2016-03-31","2016-04-29","2016-05-31","2016-06-30","2016-07-29","2016-08-31","2016-09-30","2016-10-30","2016-11-30","2016-12-30","2017-01-31","2017-02-28","2017-03-31","2017-04-28","2017-05-31","2017-06-30","2017-07-31","2017-08-31","2017-09-29","2017-10-31","2017-11-30","2017-12-29","2018-01-31","2018-02-28","2018-03-28","2018-04-30","2018-05-31","2018-06-29","2018-07-31","2018-08-31","2018-09-28","2018-10-31","2018-11-30","2018-12-31","2019-01-31","2019-02-28","2019-03-29","2019-04-30","2019-05-31","2019-06-28","2019-07-31","2019-08-30","2019-09-30","2019-10-31","2019-11-29","2019-12-31","2020-01-31","2020-02-28","2020-03-31","2020-04-30","2020-05-29","2020-06-30","2020-07-31","2020-08-31","2020-09-30","2020-10-30","2020-11-27","2020-12-31","2021-01-29","2021-02-26","2021-03-31","2021-04-30","2021-05-31","2021-06-30","2021-07-30","2021-08-31","2021-09-30","2021-10-29","2021-11-30","2021-12-31","2022-01-31","2022-02-28","2022-03-31","2022-04-29","2022-05-31","2022-06-30","2022-07-29","2022-08-30","2022-09-30","2022-10-31","2022-11-30","2022-12-30","2023-01-31","2023-02-28","2023-03-31","2023-04-28","2023-05-31","2023-06-30","2023-07-31","2023-08-31","2023-09-29","2023-10-31","2023-11-30","2023-12-29","2024-01-31","2024-02-29","2024-03-28","2024-04-30","2024-05-31","2024-06-28","2024-07-31","2024-08-30","2024-09-30","2024-10-31","2024-11-29","2024-12-31","2025-01-31","2025-02-28","2025-03-28","2025-04-30","2025-05-30","2025-06-30","2025-07-31","2025-08-29","2025-09-30","2025-10-31","2025-11-28","2025-12-31","2026-01-30","2026-02-27","2026-03-30","2026-04-30","2026-05-29","2026-06-30","2026-07-31","2026-08-31","2026-09-30","2026-10-06"],"series":{"w_gsec5":[48.69,43.67,51.88,55.85,56.72,56.81,61.47,56.98,39.14,51.63,58.56,60.52,63.62,69.02,63.23,58.47,60.46,58.21,63.22,63.71,61.8,61.54,67.73,64.0,51.29,54.87,63.83,66.76,69.09,61.57,60.68,70.99,71.38,77.94,76.32,66.78,65.0,51.42,71.95,57.12,42.93,69.95,61.75,44.31,19.34,20.77,20.23,17.96,18.34,16.26,23.45,46.09,43.38,46.95,64.04,66.96,52.39,64.68,73.74,54.37,62.1,71.01,63.38,54.91,64.43,71.34,76.64,78.29,79.91,77.5,76.36,70.83,63.71,73.68,73.73,73.64,74.07,70.76,46.5,50.27,72.53,55.87,41.41,57.33,68.18,73.92,70.41,53.24,53.88,46.45,62.09,70.17,66.2,61.27,67.09,50.2,40.79,41.8,41.94,36.4,35.19,43.85,42.77,57.43,73.14,79.66,78.78,76.11,78.66,78.64,79.33,80.15,79.38,80.17,79.58,79.67,80.5,79.45,75.86,77.6,80.72,79.9,80.07,79.0,81.15,79.94,79.84,73.28,80.12,81.11,81.36,66.5,60.82,67.99,76.12,75.1,79.73,80.33,80.17,71.18,71.01,48.56,68.31,73.71,72.5,73.05,80.2,65.74,68.0,69.79,69.84,77.92,79.19,79.52,80.76,80.7,78.97,80.25,80.17,79.22,79.37,81.39,80.96,79.58,80.17,80.46,80.4,79.05,79.98,80.07,80.51,81.42,79.69,59.66,66.01,67.35,60.92,68.33,76.49,79.1,60.95,34.0,48.2,28.52,48.47,56.93,75.29,78.28,68.29,76.04,79.34,77.92,80.39,78.96,79.61,79.77,78.08,68.32,64.24,67.8,67.94,57.2,62.98,65.09,57.05,66.2,73.9,67.34,55.67,70.35,67.27,71.65,77.19,80.16,77.02,70.0,66.58,61.64,60.61,62.43,74.68,79.84,71.19,76.65,67.9,75.4,79.77,79.23,77.06,79.31,79.49,74.33,79.95,79.83,81.04,80.21,77.16,73.63,72.27,55.44,46.87,49.56,48.12,47.78,51.63,50.32,50.46,52.25,56.94,56.34,56.71,57.62,51.02,50.31,66.94,57.44,49.1,55.61,56.55],"w_n500":[51.31,56.33,48.12,44.15,43.28,43.19,38.53,43.02,60.86,48.37,41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