{"schema":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-17T02:09:59Z","name":"Trend, global equity, ACWI (ETF version): holdings at each month-end","resolution":"month-end","meta":{"spec":"docs/research/models_v1_spec.md","disclaimer":"Rules registered in advance and tracked in public. Not investment advice: a model's holdings describe what its rule says, not what anyone should buy. Backtests before a model's entry date are not evidence of future results.","as_of":"2026-10-16","n_trials":203,"signal_freshness":{"cape":"2026-08-31","yield_gap":"2026-10-16","pe_n500":"2026-10-16","mcap_gdp":"2026-09-30","govt_debt":"2026-10-01"},"stale_prices":{"ivv_nav_inr":{"last_change":"2026-10-13","sessions_behind":3}},"live_held":{"trend_local":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"trend_global":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"gtaa":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"gtaa_global":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"dual_momentum":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"gem_spx":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"gem_ndx":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"trend_world_ivv":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"gtaa_ivv":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"gem_ivv":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"trend_world_acwi":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"gtaa_acwi":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"gem_acwi":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"size_dm":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"trend_india":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"trend_world":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"size_rotation":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"dyn_alloc":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"one_over_n_india":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"one_over_n_global":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"robust_trend":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"robust_momentum":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"adaptive_allocation":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"countercyclical":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"erc":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"min_variance":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"inverse_vol":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"hrp":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"max_diversification":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"all_weather":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"golden_butterfly":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15"}},"endowment":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"valuation_cape":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"valuation_yield_gap":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"paa":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"daa":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"vaa":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"baa":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"sixty_forty_trend":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"ensemble_equal":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"sixty_twenty_twenty":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"sixty_forty":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"ed_65_35":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"ed_50_50":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"ed_25_75":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"permanent":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15"}},"equal_thirds":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}}},"live_rebuilds":[{"id":"2026-10-14-carried-prices","applied_at":"2026-10-14 20:51:44","rows_superseded":273,"last_date_superseded":"2026-10-13","archive":"models_live_log.superseded.2026-10-14-carried-prices.parquet","reason":"From 1 to 13 October 2026 the log was written from a panel that carried the 5-year G-sec forward between weekly fetches and gold forward on evening runs (gold lands after E1), so rows recorded flat prices for days the source had not yet posted. The daily G-sec fetch and the live-log hold fix the cause."}],"notes":["Returns after costs. After-tax figures: resident individual in the 30% slab, Indian capital-gains rules by date, everything sold at the end.","Older index-input versions: S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 price indices in rupees, held through LRS (0.60% each way, 0.10% a year), one session behind the NSE close.","ETF versions: official IVV or ACWI workbook NAVs plus ex-date distributions, before investor tax and withholding; no additional fund expense drag. Execution costs assumed at 0.60% each way. Histories begin only after the fund and signal warm-up.","dsr_* is the deflated Sharpe ratio over all counted trials; 0.95 is the usual bar."],"source":"tipsheet models, computed from NSE total-return indices, domestic gold (World Gold Council), G-secs, the 91-day T-bill, and foreign index or iShares ETF NAV total returns in INR (ECB rates), as specified for each model.","assets":{"w_cash":"Cash (91-day T-bill, as a liquid fund)","w_acwi_inr":"Global equity (iShares ACWI NAV total return, INR)","w_mid150":"Nifty Midcap 150","w_n100":"Nifty 100","w_gsec5":"G-sec 5-year (NSE benchmark index)","w_other":"Everything else"}},"dates":["2009-04-29","2009-05-29","2009-06-30","2009-07-31","2009-08-31","2009-09-30","2009-10-30","2009-11-30","2009-12-31","2010-01-29","2010-02-26","2010-03-31","2010-04-30","2010-05-31","2010-06-30","2010-07-30","2010-08-31","2010-09-30","2010-10-29","2010-11-30","2010-12-31","2011-01-31","2011-02-28","2011-03-31","2011-04-29","2011-05-31","2011-06-30","2011-07-29","2011-08-30","2011-09-30","2011-10-31","2011-11-30","2011-12-30","2012-01-31","2012-02-29","2012-03-30","2012-04-30","2012-05-31","2012-06-29","2012-07-31","2012-08-31","2012-09-28","2012-10-31","2012-11-30","2012-12-31","2013-01-31","2013-02-28","2013-03-28","2013-04-30","2013-05-31","2013-06-28","2013-07-31","2013-08-30","2013-09-30","2013-10-31","2013-11-29","2013-12-31","2014-01-31","2014-02-28","2014-03-31","2014-04-30","2014-05-30","2014-06-30","2014-07-31","2014-08-28","2014-09-30","2014-10-31","2014-11-28","2014-12-31","2015-01-30","2015-02-28","2015-03-31","2015-04-30","2015-05-29","2015-06-30","2015-07-31","2015-08-31","2015-09-30","2015-10-30","2015-11-30","2015-12-31","2016-01-29","2016-02-29","2016-03-31","2016-04-29","2016-05-31","2016-06-30","2016-07-29","2016-08-31","2016-09-30","2016-10-30","2016-11-30","2016-12-30","2017-01-31","2017-02-28","2017-03-31","2017-04-28","2017-05-31","2017-06-30","2017-07-31","2017-08-31","2017-09-29","2017-10-31","2017-11-30","2017-12-29","2018-01-31","2018-02-28","2018-03-28","2018-04-30","2018-05-31","2018-06-29","2018-07-31","2018-08-31","2018-09-28","2018-10-31","2018-11-30","2018-12-31","2019-01-31","2019-02-28","2019-03-29","2019-04-30","2019-05-31","2019-06-28","2019-07-31","2019-08-30","2019-09-30","2019-10-31","2019-11-29","2019-12-31","2020-01-31","2020-02-28","2020-03-31","2020-04-30","2020-05-29","2020-06-30","2020-07-31","2020-08-31","2020-09-30","2020-10-30","2020-11-27","2020-12-31","2021-01-29","2021-02-26","2021-03-31","2021-04-30","2021-05-31","2021-06-30","2021-07-30","2021-08-31","2021-09-30","2021-10-29","2021-11-30","2021-12-31","2022-01-31","2022-02-28","2022-03-31","2022-04-29","2022-05-31","2022-06-30","2022-07-29","2022-08-30","2022-09-30","2022-10-31","2022-11-30","2022-12-30","2023-01-31","2023-02-28","2023-03-31","2023-04-28","2023-05-31","2023-06-30","2023-07-31","2023-08-31","2023-09-29","2023-10-31","2023-11-30","2023-12-29","2024-01-31","2024-02-29","2024-03-28","2024-04-30","2024-05-31","2024-06-28","2024-07-31","2024-08-30","2024-09-30","2024-10-31","2024-11-29","2024-12-31","2025-01-31","2025-02-28","2025-03-28","2025-04-30","2025-05-30","2025-06-30","2025-07-31","2025-08-29","2025-09-30","2025-10-31","2025-11-28","2025-12-31","2026-01-30","2026-02-27","2026-03-30","2026-04-30","2026-05-29","2026-06-30","2026-07-31","2026-08-31","2026-09-30","2026-10-16"],"series":{"w_cash":[33.57,24.23,32.95,16.94,15.97,15.28,21.07,9.07,20.77,26.8,44.53,17.97,16.41,44.16,21.52,18.12,32.0,17.41,23.83,44.29,44.14,66.98,66.81,52.58,39.32,69.21,75.05,42.85,72.2,77.15,57.67,71.51,61.73,42.83,26.96,48.45,54.15,65.74,38.2,49.94,21.8,12.46,25.7,26.21,13.22,27.85,48.51,63.12,49.23,44.51,69.89,69.9,68.39,59.03,38.06,44.34,38.61,40.95,47.12,35.41,25.2,28.98,24.58,22.24,24.95,40.91,41.21,23.57,31.14,22.31,22.21,54.76,44.98,40.95,61.78,44.67,72.21,72.29,39.89,52.79,56.86,76.87,75.0,42.26,22.86,29.88,15.85,8.2,8.97,4.89,22.21,52.86,64.33,23.04,19.39,32.81,35.27,25.57,24.19,18.65,30.9,22.87,23.59,29.04,33.24,24.62,52.21,64.57,36.03,59.76,61.94,51.4,43.69,61.3,68.76,70.23,50.01,58.15,56.23,40.1,38.45,51.43,42.41,49.33,51.84,38.2,27.5,24.16,22.26,7.0,8.67,73.91,60.21,60.13,22.28,15.02,15.24,39.47,8.41,8.18,7.86,17.6,30.32,40.92,21.73,10.42,17.21,19.4,26.11,23.65,14.27,27.63,38.02,63.88,59.02,42.21,47.19,89.42,90.32,55.87,25.56,61.49,57.65,20.12,50.54,48.67,65.92,61.61,31.16,12.42,15.11,14.43,36.98,40.2,56.23,13.76,4.81,11.03,18.14,21.86,19.46,3.51,3.38,17.28,6.93,0.69,36.59,45.04,47.15,48.33,52.35,43.06,38.29,20.08,16.67,27.76,38.77,34.69,12.51,34.36,34.78,57.18,40.32,82.64,38.2,43.44,28.7,42.31,20.83,59.16,70.38],"w_acwi_inr":[9.73,9.06,11.8,13.47,15.97,15.6,13.6,16.01,15.9,10.39,6.88,13.83,16.29,1.38,4.59,10.42,2.08,13.26,14.66,16.53,16.65,16.66,16.8,9.77,12.76,13.91,3.56,6.79,0.7,1.42,13.16,10.4,14.99,13.82,15.42,16.74,16.67,9.29,15.09,13.29,16.57,16.28,8.35,10.92,14.74,15.22,12.61,16.0,15.99,16.88,15.64,16.92,17.01,13.89,13.22,16.43,13.26,13.89,13.2,6.75,11.2,4.61,10.31,16.57,14.64,4.17,0.0,9.84,15.1,1.39,13.15,11.89,16.54,16.59,8.86,6.21,0.0,1.98,4.26,10.41,1.39,0.0,4.16,9.03,12.38,11.08,14.56,11.87,15.18,14.63,10.96,13.26,16.62,16.63,16.53,12.84,7.01,15.9,14.49,15.9,10.38,16.74,15.93,16.63,16.69,16.88,13.2,7.71,14.59,16.32,13.84,16.58,17.09,16.75,4.2,3.38,0.0,6.22,10.54,7.56,12.76,2.07,13.03,13.8,13.97,14.59,14.59,16.75,16.6,16.64,14.46,1.56,6.3,6.51,14.98,16.46,16.73,8.44,15.59,16.41,16.21,16.84,15.31,10.53,16.46,13.2,17.0,15.93,16.36,10.95,13.78,13.99,16.53,2.78,1.39,11.12,1.39,0.0,0.0,6.32,10.62,0.0,4.15,10.95,7.65,15.09,13.26,7.86,15.15,16.01,16.57,16.71,9.84,6.9,2.11,15.15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