{"schema":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T19:35:19Z","name":"Trend, with global: holdings at each month-end","resolution":"month-end","meta":{"spec":"docs/research/models_v1_spec.md","disclaimer":"Rules registered in advance and tracked in public. Not investment advice: a model's holdings describe what its rule says, not what anyone should buy. Backtests before a model's entry date are not evidence of future results.","as_of":"2026-10-06","n_trials":191,"signal_freshness":{"cape":"2026-08-31","yield_gap":"2026-10-08","pe_n500":"2026-10-08"},"notes":["Returns after costs. After-tax figures: resident individual in the 30% slab, Indian capital-gains rules by date, everything sold at the end.","Foreign legs: S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 price indices in rupees, held through LRS (0.60% each way, 0.10% a year), one session behind the NSE close.","dsr_* is the deflated Sharpe ratio over all counted trials; 0.95 is the usual bar."],"source":"tipsheet models, computed from NSE total-return indices, domestic gold (World Gold Council), the NSE 5-year G-sec index, the 91-day T-bill, and for foreign legs the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 in rupees (ECB rates).","assets":{"w_cash":"Cash (91-day T-bill, as a liquid fund)","w_spx_inr":"S&P 500 in rupees (price index)","w_mid150":"Nifty Midcap 150","w_gold":"Gold (domestic, rupees)","w_n100":"Nifty 100","w_other":"Everything else"}},"dates":["2006-04-29","2006-05-31","2006-06-30","2006-07-31","2006-08-31","2006-09-29","2006-10-31","2006-11-30","2006-12-29","2007-01-31","2007-02-28","2007-03-30","2007-04-30","2007-05-31","2007-06-29","2007-07-31","2007-08-31","2007-09-28","2007-10-31","2007-11-30","2007-12-31","2008-01-31","2008-02-29","2008-03-31","2008-04-30","2008-05-30","2008-06-30","2008-07-31","2008-08-29","2008-09-30","2008-10-31","2008-11-28","2008-12-31","2009-01-30","2009-02-27","2009-03-31","2009-04-29","2009-05-29","2009-06-30","2009-07-31","2009-08-31","2009-09-30","2009-10-30","2009-11-30","2009-12-31","2010-01-29","2010-02-26","2010-03-31","2010-04-30","2010-05-31","2010-06-30","2010-07-30","2010-08-31","2010-09-30","2010-10-29","2010-11-30","2010-12-31","2011-01-31","2011-02-28","2011-03-31","2011-04-29","2011-05-31","2011-06-30","2011-07-29","2011-08-30","2011-09-30","2011-10-31","2011-11-30","2011-12-30","2012-01-31","2012-02-29","2012-03-30","2012-04-30","2012-05-31","2012-06-29","2012-07-31","2012-08-31","2012-09-28","2012-10-31","2012-11-30","2012-12-31","2013-01-31","2013-02-28","2013-03-28","2013-04-30","2013-05-31","2013-06-28","2013-07-31","2013-08-30","2013-09-30","2013-10-31","2013-11-29","2013-12-31","2014-01-31","2014-02-28","2014-03-31","2014-04-30","2014-05-30","2014-06-30","2014-07-31","2014-08-28","2014-09-30","2014-10-31","2014-11-28","2014-12-31","2015-01-30","2015-02-28","2015-03-31","2015-04-30","2015-05-29","2015-06-30","2015-07-31","2015-08-31","2015-09-30","2015-10-30","2015-11-30","2015-12-31","2016-01-29","2016-02-29","2016-03-31","2016-04-29","2016-05-31","2016-06-30","2016-07-29","2016-08-31","2016-09-30","2016-10-30","2016-11-30","2016-12-30","2017-01-31","2017-02-28","2017-03-31","2017-04-28","2017-05-31","2017-06-30","2017-07-31","2017-08-31","2017-09-29","2017-10-31","2017-11-30","2017-12-29","2018-01-31","2018-02-28","2018-03-28","2018-04-30","2018-05-31","2018-06-29","2018-07-31","2018-08-31","2018-09-28","2018-10-31","2018-11-30","2018-12-31","2019-01-31","2019-02-28","2019-03-29","2019-04-30","2019-05-31","2019-06-28","2019-07-31","2019-08-30","2019-09-30","2019-10-31","2019-11-29","2019-12-31","2020-01-31","2020-02-28","2020-03-31","2020-04-30","2020-05-29","2020-06-30","2020-07-31","2020-08-31","2020-09-30","2020-10-30","2020-11-27","2020-12-31","2021-01-29","2021-02-26","2021-03-31","2021-04-30","2021-05-31","2021-06-30","2021-07-30","2021-08-31","2021-09-30","2021-10-29","2021-11-30","2021-12-31","2022-01-31","2022-02-28","2022-03-31","2022-04-29","2022-05-31","2022-06-30","2022-07-29","2022-08-30","2022-09-30","2022-10-31","2022-11-30","2022-12-30","2023-01-31","2023-02-28","2023-03-31","2023-04-28","2023-05-31","2023-06-30","2023-07-31","2023-08-31","2023-09-29","2023-10-31","2023-11-30","2023-12-29","2024-01-31","2024-02-29","2024-03-28","2024-04-30","2024-05-31","2024-06-28","2024-07-31","2024-08-30","2024-09-30","2024-10-31","2024-11-29","2024-12-31","2025-01-31","2025-02-28","2025-03-28","2025-04-30","2025-05-30","2025-06-30","2025-07-31","2025-08-29","2025-09-30","2025-10-31","2025-11-28","2025-12-31","2026-01-30","2026-02-27","2026-03-30","2026-04-30","2026-05-29","2026-06-30","2026-07-31","2026-08-31","2026-09-30","2026-10-06"],"series":{"w_cash":[6.18,41.75,78.33,55.57,29.19,22.96,22.6,8.34,34.47,24.42,39.61,69.21,56.82,47.74,37.81,35.83,57.78,16.49,19.46,26.92,23.2,41.3,53.2,72.22,59.62,54.51,81.98,82.53,77.68,72.42,77.61,82.2,57.33,66.89,69.7,50.61,34.24,30.68,34.35,19.01,17.16,11.03,19.25,9.07,20.06,25.36,40.36,15.89,16.35,41.4,20.84,23.66,33.41,20.91,27.34,44.95,44.19,67.01,66.75,52.56,40.71,67.88,75.04,39.42,72.2,69.15,56.27,68.75,59.51,46.98,26.98,48.35,54.14,58.92,40.81,47.88,21.8,17.98,27.81,25.89,22.2,26.47,47.77,62.4,49.22,44.48,68.47,69.88,68.36,61.11,40.83,44.33,36.56,39.5,46.4,32.73,23.81,30.29,23.57,22.93,22.88,33.29,37.75,17.14,29.74,14.65,20.13,55.42,45.01,40.91,61.79,36.12,68.05,69.57,32.79,49.32,50.62,76.87,72.24,40.18,21.48,27.1,15.15,6.15,6.09,8.39,24.29,51.46,64.38,23.05,19.38,31.7,35.98,33.2,20.33,15.28,42.7,23.55,23.61,29.02,33.25,23.28,51.28,64.57,37.41,59.61,59.82,51.41,43.65,61.32,65.43,66.83,49.31,58.14,54.89,38.71,37.02,48.67,41.04,46.51,48.97,38.2,22.82,24.14,22.27,6.99,7.97,73.89,57.43,57.33,21.6,15.02,15.22,38.79,8.42,8.2,7.89,17.58,29.67,34.68,25.55,15.52,17.89,13.82,28.57,23.64,14.25,24.85,38.0,62.49,56.94,39.44,44.41,89.42,90.32,55.16,23.53,60.12,57.65,20.13,54.01,51.48,68.03,63.05,31.15,12.4,15.09,14.63,35.6,39.5,55.53,13.08,4.81,11.03,18.14,21.84,19.46,3.51,3.37,16.59,7.62,0.7,35.21,44.34,46.47,47.69,52.43,45.83,38.3,22.18,17.36,27.74,38.8,34.69,17.93,34.35,34.79,57.22,44.5,78.68,38.13,43.49,30.08,42.35,21.52,58.47,68.59],"w_spx_inr":[16.38,6.24,5.64,13.18,15.98,13.77,13.59,16.66,15.9,16.06,15.67,4.14,1.37,2.77,3.45,0.0,2.02,4.8,0.69,0.0,2.67,0.0,1.38,0.69,8.33,13.48,1.39,1.38,4.89,5.12,0.0,0.0,1.42,0.69,0.0,6.78,9.09,6.34,10.38,11.24,14.33,15.92,12.27,16.05,16.65,11.9,11.05,15.91,16.6,4.1,5.2,4.25,0.69,9.68,11.18,15.92,16.57,16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