{"schema":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T19:35:19Z","name":"Trend, India only (first version, with the Nifty 50): holdings at each month-end","resolution":"month-end","meta":{"spec":"docs/research/models_v1_spec.md","disclaimer":"Rules registered in advance and tracked in public. Not investment advice: a model's holdings describe what its rule says, not what anyone should buy. Backtests before a model's entry date are not evidence of future results.","as_of":"2026-10-06","n_trials":191,"signal_freshness":{"cape":"2026-08-31","yield_gap":"2026-10-08","pe_n500":"2026-10-08"},"notes":["Returns after costs. After-tax figures: resident individual in the 30% slab, Indian capital-gains rules by date, everything sold at the end.","Foreign legs: S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 price indices in rupees, held through LRS (0.60% each way, 0.10% a year), one session behind the NSE close.","dsr_* is the deflated Sharpe ratio over all counted trials; 0.95 is the usual bar."],"source":"tipsheet models, computed from NSE total-return indices, domestic gold (World Gold Council), the NSE 5-year G-sec index, the 91-day T-bill, and for foreign legs the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 in rupees (ECB rates).","assets":{"w_cash":"Cash (91-day T-bill, as a liquid fund)","w_gold":"Gold (domestic, rupees)","w_gsec5":"G-sec 5-year (NSE benchmark index)","w_mid150":"Nifty Midcap 150","w_n50":"Nifty 50","w_small250":"Nifty Smallcap 250"}},"dates":["2006-04-29","2006-05-31","2006-06-30","2006-07-31","2006-08-31","2006-09-29","2006-10-31","2006-11-30","2006-12-29","2007-01-31","2007-02-28","2007-03-30","2007-04-30","2007-05-31","2007-06-29","2007-07-31","2007-08-31","2007-09-28","2007-10-31","2007-11-30","2007-12-31","2008-01-31","2008-02-29","2008-03-31","2008-04-30","2008-05-30","2008-06-30","2008-07-31","2008-08-29","2008-09-30","2008-10-31","2008-11-28","2008-12-31","2009-01-30","2009-02-27","2009-03-31","2009-04-29","2009-05-29","2009-06-30","2009-07-31","2009-08-31","2009-09-30","2009-10-30","2009-11-30","2009-12-31","2010-01-29","2010-02-26","2010-03-31","2010-04-30","2010-05-31","2010-06-30","2010-07-30","2010-08-31","2010-09-30","2010-10-29","2010-11-30","2010-12-31","2011-01-31","2011-02-28","2011-03-31","2011-04-29","2011-05-31","2011-06-30","2011-07-29","2011-08-30","2011-09-30","2011-10-31","2011-11-30","2011-12-30","2012-01-31","2012-02-29","2012-03-30","2012-04-30","2012-05-31","2012-06-29","2012-07-31","2012-08-31","2012-09-28","2012-10-31","2012-11-30","2012-12-31","2013-01-31","2013-02-28","2013-03-28","2013-04-30","2013-05-31","2013-06-28","2013-07-31","2013-08-30","2013-09-30","2013-10-31","2013-11-29","2013-12-31","2014-01-31","2014-02-28","2014-03-31","2014-04-30","2014-05-30","2014-06-30","2014-07-31","2014-08-28","2014-09-30","2014-10-31","2014-11-28","2014-12-31","2015-01-30","2015-02-28","2015-03-31","2015-04-30","2015-05-29","2015-06-30","2015-07-31","2015-08-31","2015-09-30","2015-10-30","2015-11-30","2015-12-31","2016-01-29","2016-02-29","2016-03-31","2016-04-29","2016-05-31","2016-06-30","2016-07-29","2016-08-31","2016-09-30","2016-10-30","2016-11-30","2016-12-30","2017-01-31","2017-02-28","2017-03-31","2017-04-28","2017-05-31","2017-06-30","2017-07-31","2017-08-31","2017-09-29","2017-10-31","2017-11-30","2017-12-29","2018-01-31","2018-02-28","2018-03-28","2018-04-30","2018-05-31","2018-06-29","2018-07-31","2018-08-31","2018-09-28","2018-10-31","2018-11-30","2018-12-31","2019-01-31","2019-02-28","2019-03-29","2019-04-30","2019-05-31","2019-06-28","2019-07-31","2019-08-30","2019-09-30","2019-10-31","2019-11-29","2019-12-31","2020-01-31","2020-02-28","2020-03-31","2020-04-30","2020-05-29","2020-06-30","2020-07-31","2020-08-31","2020-09-30","2020-10-30","2020-11-27","2020-12-31","2021-01-29","2021-02-26","2021-03-31","2021-04-30","2021-05-31","2021-06-30","2021-07-30","2021-08-31","2021-09-30","2021-10-29","2021-11-30","2021-12-31","2022-01-31","2022-02-28","2022-03-31","2022-04-29","2022-05-31","2022-06-30","2022-07-29","2022-08-30","2022-09-30","2022-10-31","2022-11-30","2022-12-30","2023-01-31","2023-02-28","2023-03-31","2023-04-28","2023-05-31","2023-06-30","2023-07-31","2023-08-31","2023-09-29","2023-10-31","2023-11-30","2023-12-29","2024-01-31","2024-02-29","2024-03-28","2024-04-30","2024-05-31","2024-06-28","2024-07-31","2024-08-30","2024-09-30","2024-10-31","2024-11-29","2024-12-31","2025-01-31","2025-02-28","2025-03-28","2025-04-30","2025-05-30","2025-06-30","2025-07-31","2025-08-29","2025-09-30","2025-10-31","2025-11-28","2025-12-31","2026-01-30","2026-02-27","2026-03-30","2026-04-30","2026-05-29","2026-06-30","2026-07-31","2026-08-31","2026-09-30","2026-10-06"],"series":{"w_cash":[7.39,47.86,74.16,60.84,30.96,29.59,24.28,10.0,39.67,28.5,46.54,68.06,49.88,34.89,30.47,23.12,51.88,5.76,4.17,12.87,7.95,29.43,45.55,66.66,61.56,61.44,83.14,74.47,79.08,73.16,78.24,77.73,50.53,61.15,63.61,48.99,31.9,21.89,33.76,16.3,18.33,12.39,18.97,10.06,24.07,24.59,42.57,23.32,19.61,36.4,12.46,14.22,16.72,15.97,26.11,52.25,52.11,85.0,79.13,53.96,44.45,79.75,74.3,44.42,67.54,74.27,64.17,78.3,71.92,47.2,26.28,59.05,65.81,69.93,43.23,56.67,26.13,14.89,20.86,25.58,13.4,31.73,53.24,74.94,58.26,54.38,82.56,83.31,82.4,66.67,41.53,53.9,43.05,46.7,52.39,34.33,23.55,23.65,22.4,26.66,27.46,33.31,29.6,23.86,34.75,13.24,22.46,60.77,55.56,50.76,66.51,39.98,66.66,62.37,32.0,55.85,49.92,72.26,75.0,41.57,22.41,28.34,15.7,4.1,9.93,3.36,21.61,60.19,77.16,28.47,28.93,27.18,31.55,29.01,27.35,21.53,30.46,27.48,27.47,31.35,39.9,28.03,54.36,68.24,37.5,67.22,69.29,61.61,55.4,73.62,67.53,67.53,40.0,56.43,56.45,37.28,46.67,44.19,44.96,53.42,58.03,43.34,31.35,29.02,26.69,9.18,8.59,70.53,59.79,59.86,24.98,17.98,18.29,37.44,9.22,9.79,9.38,21.17,34.78,42.5,31.42,8.33,25.84,22.44,32.57,19.73,20.9,29.88,45.54,59.15,51.66,40.64,39.99,87.3,88.38,55.46,28.97,55.49,52.51,17.46,49.02,54.95,73.34,62.43,38.21,16.54,17.28,21.96,38.03,36.6,49.17,15.67,5.78,10.58,21.84,27.95,20.04,6.73,6.47,14.93,7.47,0.84,43.04,53.23,48.29,55.6,62.53,39.99,28.42,19.08,22.35,33.32,41.04,40.82,13.38,33.03,41.73,68.63,48.41,83.46,47.59,53.13,32.75,49.94,25.83,69.23,79.04],"w_gold":[19.85,17.97,12.21,16.67,13.31,6.76,3.33,12.51,3.34,10.06,15.94,9.1,1.61,0.0,0.0,2.49,8.23,15.61,18.96,18.89,16.53,20.32,20.25,15.0,9.81,17.58,15.35,16.38,5.05,16.04,4.17,4.55,14.55,16.03,19.58,16.51,11.53,11.85,11.57,16.87,18.33,19.14,19.85,20.19,13.24,9.17,13.28,5.81,15.14,20.16,19.97,12.9,16.05,15.45,1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